Tag Archives: First Nations

Roundup: More proof the carbon levy didn’t raise food prices

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Pierre Poilievre is at it again, railing about food price inflation, but lo, he can no longer blame it on the carbon levy because that was never actually the problem or the cause of food price inflation, but he certainly vilified it, and Mark Carney capitulated and allowed Poilievre’s vilification to work. Poilievre is now blaming government spending on food price inflation, which is hilariously wrong, but Carney has also capitulated to that as well and is ushering in a new wave of austerity, because why actually explain things when you can just surrender to the bullshit?

Meanwhile, here’s Andrew Leach walking you through why it wasn’t the carbon levy and never was the carbon levy.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians broke through the front lines near Dobropillia, but were quickly contained (but it’s a poor narrative for the upcoming Trump-Putin talks). Ukraine has also been regaining territory in Sumy region. President Zelenskyy says that Russia wants the remaining 30 percent of Donetsk region for a ceasefire, which they won’t give him.

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Roundup: Consulting on the housing crisis

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The federal government published a consultation document yesterday which seeks input on how the future Build Canada Homes entity is going to be structured, and how to can support the industry to accelerate the number of homes being built, particularly while using more Canadian materials to do so (given as well that there is an impetus to use more softwood lumber domestically as the Americans keep increasing countervailing duties). Getting the structure and the implementation right is important, and that could include how much autonomy it’s given (as in, if it’s a standalone agency, that tends to be more arm’s-length and free of ministerial direction than if it’s a unit within the infrastructure department). But this being said, the government needs to start acting fast because housing starts are cratering, particularly in the biggest cities, and a whole lot of those job losses reported in the July data last week were from the construction sector.

Meanwhile, Ontario’s housing start data is getting worse, even after they added a whole bunch of new things into their calculations to make the numbers look better, such as student dorms and long-term care beds (which yes, the Ontario government counts as “housing.”) But this is the Ford government, who won’t do the things that are necessary to get houses built in this province, and instead keep signalling that they want other levels of government to do something before they do anything, when they are the ones who have the primary levers and can exercise them, like enforcing gentle density rules, changing building codes to allow for European-style apartments and elevators, and other obstacles to building the kind of housing we need. Ford has plenty of power to do something about housing (besides arranging sweetheart deals for developer friends of his), but he simply refuses to.

The ON government has added student beds, LTC beds, and "additional units" to their BFF housing start figures, although it's unclear where these numbers originate.This causes the #s to go WAY up, in some communities. But 1 student bed does not replace a single-family home.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-08-11T11:18:11.000Z

Ukraine Dispatch

We’re already into ridiculous territory ahead of Friday’s talks between Trump and Putin, as Trump says Russia will have to cede some land too. Which land exactly?

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Roundup: Tariffs are likely biting worse than claimed

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You may have heard time and again that some 85 percent of goods traded with the US are covered under the New NAFTA and are not exposed to the new 35 percent tariffs, but that number could actually be misleading (and variable depending on who’s talking). In actual fact, that 85 percent figure is trade that is eligible to be compliant with New NAFTA rules, but a lot of it actually isn’t, because a great deal of that trade was simply done without the compliance with the New NAFTA rules because it was easier for many businesses just to pay the old tariff rates because there are significant costs to be compliant with the New NAFTA rules. That calculation has changed now with the Trump tariffs, and a lot of businesses are scrambling to get their compliance certification, but for many small businesses, it’s incredibly hard to do because they don’t have the staff or resources to do so. This means that the tariffs could be biting harder than some people are saying.

Meanwhile, media outlets like the CBC have been trying to get an answer from prime minister Mark Carney or his office about where he stands on the 2030 climate targets, and lo, they cannot get one. Which is not great considering how much Carney professed to be trying to get Canada and the world taking climate change seriously. And in the time since, he’s eliminated the consumer carbon levy (which was working to reduce emissions), and has given himself permission to violate all kinds of other environmental laws through the giant Henry VIII clause in Bill C-5, so it’s not exactly sending a signal that he’s too interested in that 2030 target, even though it was already going to more effort to achieve it than the Trudeau government was making. It’s not great, considering that we’re still living in a climate emergency, regardless of the tariff situation.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian bomb strikes in Zaporizhzhia have injured at least twelve. Three people swimming in a restricted area off the coast of Odesa were killed by an explosive object, likely an unexploded mine (which is why the area is off-limits). Unsurprisingly, president Zelenskyy has rejected any kind of “land swap” deal made without the involvement or consent of Ukraine.

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Roundup: Details on military pay raises

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Prime minister Mark Carney was in Trenton yesterday to meet with members of the military, and then announced the specifics on the previously promised raises. They’re concentrated at the lower ranks, with a 20 percent boost to recruits, and the levels of increases decrease the higher in rank one gets, owing to the fact that they already have higher salaries. There are other bonuses being enriched, including for specific trades that they are most in need of, though as The Logic reported earlier this year, signing bonuses in those needed trades hasn’t really worked so far. Maybe with higher bonuses? Of course, the money doesn’t address some of the other problems, like the moving across the country every couple of years, which creates problems with retention, but we’ll see if those kinds of internal reforms are in the works.

The other stuff also makes sense: bonuses for being relocated again and again, more money for those who have had to deal with environmental stress–bad weather such as on ship during storms or arctic. My fave, other than more $ for everyone, is essentially combat pay for domestic ops.

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman.bsky.social) 2025-08-08T18:32:47.488Z

Another notable aspect: extra pay for those becoming instructors at various training positions. I am pretty sure this is the first time this has been incentivized. Before, I am pretty sure the regiments were sending their worst just as they did with recruiting. Not great for recruitment but

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman.bsky.social) 2025-08-08T18:43:53.849Z

that has changed as well.Some of these changes are wildly overdue. Others are possible in a friendlier fiscal environment, which it is now for defence and nothing else.and ….

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman.bsky.social) 2025-08-08T18:44:59.312Z

And this point also should be made:

Someone asked in the briefing to experts this morning if this makes defense competitive with the rest of govt. I wanted to shout: defence is the only part of the Canadian govt that has jobs. Everything else is being cut to pay for this.

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman.bsky.social) 2025-08-08T18:45:39.580Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Canada is joining with allies in lowering the price cap on Russian oil to further strangle their economy.

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Roundup: Lowering expectations even further

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Prime minister Mark Carney spent the morning with the premiers in Muskoka as part of their meeting, and proceeded to lower expectations even further than they already are. The message of the day was that he’s only going to take the “best deal” in negotiations with the US, and that matters more than the August 1st deadline, which is already beyond the “deadline” that was agreed to in Kananaskis, and so long as talks are ongoing, retaliation measures continue to also be pushed back so that American bullying can continue unabated. But the kind of deal he wants isn’t going to be available, because this is Trump, and we’re just not going to get a deal that “preserves, reinforces and stabilises” the trade relationship, because Trump does not want that, nor do we want to keep tying ourselves to a failing autocratic regime whose economy is increasingly defined by the chaos of its leader.

We also learned that he stayed at Doug Ford’s cottage the night before, and that they stayed up talking past midnight, and Ford just gushed like a schoolgirl about Carney’s business background, and said that he would hand the keys of a business over to the prime minister (and said “business” about fifty more times), all of which was a little bit unseemly. We know that Ford continues to fancy himself a “businessman” because he inherited part of his father’s label business, but this constant fawning over anyone with a business background is a little bit unbecoming, particularly if you pay any bit of attention to what happens.

Meanwhile, Ford also signed an MOU with Danielle Smith and Scott Moe about building pipelines to Ontario and James Bay (which is never going to happen because it’s too shallow for tanker traffic), amidst the usual nonsense about federal environmental laws that they are trying to be rid of. There are no proponents for these pipelines, because there is no economic case for them. And if Carney is true to his word and says there’s no PONIs without Indigenous buy-in or consent, well, the pipeline Smith wants to the northwest coast of BC won’t happen because the First Nations in the area do not want one. Nevertheless, I think Andrew Leach is right in that they’re stacking up a wish list they’ll never meet in order to keep blaming the federal government, because that’s what they do best.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine lost one of their French Mirage fighters due to equipment failure, but the pilot was able to safely eject. There were protests in Kyiv because president Zelenskyy signed a law that rolled back the independence of two anti-corruption bodies and placed them under executive control, which was seen largely as his first major unforced error, and give ammunition to Putin supporters.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1947576960110014850

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Roundup: Spending vs inflation

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Last week, the CD Howe Institute put out a report on the recent bout of inflation, and tried to pin it either on government spending or the Bank of Canada, and in the process ignored a whole lot of things that happened during the pandemic that were material to those price increases. Or the fact that early in the pandemic, we had deflation, and that the Bank of Canada needed to act fast to ensure that it did not continue lest it turn into a spiral that would lead to a depression, because that’s what deflation does.

Naturally, however, the moment Pierre Poilievre saw that they were pinning blame on government spending, he had to jump on that because it’s his entire central thesis for inflation, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. I report on economic data on a regular basis, and that includes the Consumer Price Index (or inflation) data every month, and the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report every quarter. I can tell you what prices increased and where, because that’s in the data every month. None of the causes had anything to do with government spending.

I also have to take some exception to the notion that government supports like CERB were driving demand. CERB was not extra spending money. It was survival money for low-income people who were out of work because of the pandemic. It staved off a wave of bankruptcies and even more demand on provincial social services or food banks (and the lack of provincial social services is the main driver behind increased food bank use, per their own reports). The “excess demand” was coming from higher-income households who had plenty of money to spend when they couldn’t go out to restaurants or go on vacations. They were not the recipients of government support, and trying to conflate the two is disingenuous, and frankly smacks of a great deal of ideological bias.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-07-19T21:10:16.169Z

Ukraine Dispatch

There has been another barrage of drones and missiles that have killed at least one person in Kyiv overnight. Here is another look at how the people in Kyiv are coping with the increased attacks.

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Roundup: A shambolic summit with First Nations

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Prime minister Mark Carney had his “summit” with First Nations leaders yesterday at the Canadian Museum of History, and it was a shambolic affair. Itineraries changed constantly, and the media were kicked out after Carney’s initial speech, before the AFN national chief could give her own speech, which she made a point of referencing. Leaders were promised time to engage with Carney and his ministers, and were instead simply told to talk amongst themselves. Carney did promise that this was “just the beginning,” and that there would be more focused regional consultations in the near future, but the whole thing didn’t really reassure a lot of those assembled chiefs (who were all Indian Act chiefs and not the hereditary chiefs who are in some cases the title holders). There was indeed a sense of frustration, and some chiefs walked out because of it.

Some of those chiefs from Alberta held a separate press conference with the assistance of Senator Prosper, and they noted that there was no proper consultation process on the meeting itself, that the attendees were hand-picked, and that this was largely political theatre to manufacture consent. Much of their comments focused on the fact that the treaties are not just box-ticking exercises, that they did not cede or surrender their lands, and that they have rights that must be respected—and more to the point, that in failing to live up to these obligations, the government is doing damage to the Honour of the Crown.

Afterward, Indigenous Services minister Mandy Gull-Masty tried to assure everyone that “national interest” included Indigenous people, and that projects can’t go ahead without Indigenous buy-in, but at the same time said that they can’t really discuss any specifics because they have to wait for the Major Projects Office to be stood-up, which they are hoping to do by Labour Day, and only then, when there are actual potential projects in the window could they properly engage with the rights-holders. But we are getting back into the “just trust us” territory, which traditionally has not gone very well for Indigenous people in this country.

Ukraine Dispatch

Here’s a look at how drone warfare is changing the front lines of the conflict. Russia and Ukraine exchanged more bodies of war dead.

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Roundup: Protections for the steel sector

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Mark Carney was in Hamilton yesterday to announce plans to help the steel industry given the state of the Trump tariffs, which largely consisted of protectionist measures to support the industry from cheap imports being dumped into our market—particularly if they are looking to use Canada to avoid the US tariffs. To that end, countries that Canada has free trade agreements with can continue exporting to Canada up to 2024 levels, after which point they are subject to 50 percent tariffs. Countries who don’t have trade deals—including China and India—are subject to the 50 percent tariff once they hit 50 percent of 2024 levels, and anything coming from China is subject to an additional 25 percent tariff, unless they are coming from the US. There is also a $10 billion loan programme for liquidity support, and more measures for EI support and retraining steelworkers. The industry is largely happy with this, but do note that some free trade countries still dump steel in our market. (Full breakdown of measures here).

Carney also said that any potential trade deal (which isn’t going to happen) could include quotas on softwood lumber as a way of resolving that long-standing issue, but remained vague and non-committal about it.

Meanwhile, Carney is telling Crown Corporations and government-funded entities to “find your own savings” of up to 15 percent, which is going to be pretty hard when most of them are already operating bare-bones. Canada Post is on the verge of bankruptcy, VIA Rail doesn’t have a lot to cut if it’s trying to recapitalise for the proposed High-Frequency/High-Speed Rail expansion, and he told CBC he would boost their funding as he’s now telling them to find savings. There are some exemptions, like the courts (which are already largely underfunded), and Parliament, but this kind of austerity is not going to be good for anyone, whether in the short or long-term, and he needs to start thinking about a course correction because this is going to further reduce capacity to do anything in this country.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia attacked Ukraine with over 400 drones early Wednesday, and later in the day, bombed Dobropillia while shoppers were out in the early evening, killing two and injuring over 27. Trump giving Russia 50 days to come to a ceasefire just means Russia will spend the summer trying to keep wearing down Ukraine. President Zelenskyy says he wants at least half of Ukraine’s weapons to be produced domestically within the next six months.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1945532910058054106

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Roundup: The reality of enduring tariffs

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On his way into the Cabinet meeting yesterday, Mark Carney made remarks to the press that it looks like there is little chance that we’ll get any kind of trade deal that doesn’t include some kind of tariffs, and that the commercial landscape has changed globally, so his focus would continue to be on what he can control, which is building a strong Canadian economy. It’s a lot in three sentences, but it does look like he’s coming around to a more honest assessment of where we’re at. Well, at least slightly so—they’re still pursing some form of “trade and security” agreement, which is continues to be a waste of everyone’s time because there is no agreement to be had, as Trump is not a rational actor and won’t live up to any agreement he does sign, if that ever happens. But at least Carney is no longer signalling that the old status quo is just around the corner, so that’s progress.

Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, is calling this a “unilateral concession,” and seems to be under the impression that he (or anyone else) could somehow secure a better deal with Trump, even though there is no deal to be had. Trump loves tariffs, and won’t be dissuaded, and we have to learn to live with that (because it’s going to be a long while before it sinks in that they are driving up costs for Americans, because a whole lot of them refuse to believe the truth). We need to be wide-eyed about this, and Carney needs to be more upfront as well. There is no deal to be had. They can go through the motions of negotiating but it won’t get us anywhere, and sure, we need to focus on what we can do…but that has to mean more than just putting all of our eggs in the resource extraction basket, which can’t be our only option.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-07-15T21:22:14.842Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones and missiles struck Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Kyiv, but there was no damage at the latter. It looks like under the latest missive from Trump, NATO members will buy US equipment for Ukraine from the US, but the US won’t spend any of their own money to send weapons to Ukraine even though it’s in their own interests to do so. (Well, it was until the US became an autocratic state).

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Roundup: The rules Poilievre defended are no longer good enough

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Pierre Poilievre decided he needed some more media attention yesterday, so he called a press conference in Ottawa, and declared that following the public disclosure of prime minister Mark Carney’s ethics filings, that none of this was good enough, that Carney needed to cash out all of his investments instead of putting them into a blind trust, and that nothing was good enough because he’ll be constantly managing conflicts (even though the point of the ethics screen is that he isn’t managing conflicts, his chief of staff and the Clerk of the Privy Council manage the conflict so that he’s not involved). Perish the thought that this special set of rules for Carney will only serve to keep other accomplished individuals away from political life.

Of course, the whole episode is rife with hypocrisy. These are the conflict-of-interest laws that the Harper government put into place, of which Poilievre was not only a part of, but defended them, particularly when questions arose around Nigel Wright and his assets when he was Harper’s chief of staff, and Poilievre personally swore up and down at committee that these rules were amazing and that the blind trust was blind, and so on. Of course, now that it’s convenient, his tune has changed, but that didn’t stop the CBC from pulling out the footage from the archives.

Meanwhile, Poilievre also told reporters that the country needs “more people leaving than coming,” which is not even a dog-whistle at this point but a bullhorn. If this is pandering to the far-right elements of the riding he’s trying to win, well, it is likely to backfire on his attempts to continue wooing other newcomer communities, particularly the Sikh and Punjabi communities he spent so much time wooing in the leadup to the last election. Immigration numbers have already flatlined, and it’s going to cause problems down the road, sooner than later. For Poilievre to say this as the mass deportations south of the border pick up speed shows he’s not only incapable of thinking through the implications of the things he says, but he’s fine with mouthing the words of fascists, and that’s a real problem.

(Incidentally, Poilievre once again said he opposes Alberta separation but says that they have “legitimate grievances,” and repeated his same bullshit line about the Ottawa telling Alberta to “pay up and shut up.” They pay the same income tax as the rest of us, and have the same representation in Parliament).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones killed two people in the Kherson region. President Zelenskyy is proposing a major government reshuffle that includes a new prime minister, while the current one is to be shuffled to defence. Trump’s “ultimatum” to Putin to reach a ceasefire in 50 days is just license for him to keep firing drones and missiles at Ukraine for another 50 days, and probably longer.

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