Roundup: The tariffs are dead, long live the tariffs

Yesterday, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 decision, because tariffs are taxes and taxes need to come from Congress. These were the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, the fentanyl tariffs, and the “Liberation Day” tariffs, but not the Section 232 sectoral tariffs on things like steel and aluminium and autos. This means that the effect on Canada is very minimal because for those IEEPA tariffs, we had the New NAFTA exemptions on something like 85 percent of tariffed goods. (Five Things to know about this ruling here, and the list of remaining tariffs on Canada here).

Almost immediately, Trump implemented new global ten percent tariffs under a different set of powers, meaning that this whole process gets to start over again with a new legal challenge, but these powers have a 150-day expiry date, so how does that even work? Meanwhile, companies who paid those IEEPA tariffs can apparently apply for refunds, but I have a suspicion they will never see that money, because Trump will drag it out, his courts are corrupt, and well, the money will have disappeared into some Trump lackey’s accounts, because the graft is real.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3mfdo7xcbw227

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3mfdovg5ius27

What problem is Trump's new global 10% tariff meant to solve?If it's about leverage, ask: How much leverage do you get from a tariff that disappears in 150 days?If it's onshoring: Who builds new factories based on tariff that disappear before the factory is built?It's a tax. That's all it is.

Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T20:00:44.062Z

Meanwhile, this has largely served as vindication for the fact that we didn’t rush to get a deal with Trump over tariffs, because there was no deal to be had, and because those tariffs were illegal. Why come up with a deal over something that’s illegal and immoral? Why do what Keir Starmer did when capitulation just emboldens a bully?

Statement from Dominic LeBlanc:

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T16:06:42.548Z

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-20T23:56:01.759Z

Ukraine Dispatch

As the war enters into its fifth year, here is a look at some of the displaced civilians from the war who has lost everything. Europe’s five biggest defence powers are launching a project to develop and build low-cost air defences that can be put into production within a year.

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Roundup: Loosening the advertising rules they put into place

The federal government, in their infinite communications wisdom, has decided to change the rules around government advertising so that they can do things like more easily use slogans, and to advertise programmes before they have been passed by Parliament. Worse, their excuses for doing so are utterly ridiculous, saying that the more “dangerous and divided world” needs faster communications and the old process was “too slow and duplicative.” Sorry, you think you need to be able to advertise slogans or programmes that do not officially exist yet because it’s faster? Are you kidding me?

The point of these rules is to create a separation between party and government, and the Harper government had incidents where this got them into trouble, such as when Pierre Poilievre, as minister of Employment and Skills Development, showed up at a government announcement in party-branded attire and got in trouble with Elections Canada for it. These rules exist for a reason, but Carney has decided that they’re inconvenient for him, so he needs to alter them. If the Liberals’ usual kryptonite is arrogance, Carney’s personal brand of it is acting like a magnifying glass. He should be reminded of this fact, before he drives the party off the very cliff he rescued them from.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia used hypersonic medium-range missiles to strike Lviv early Friday morning, which is being considered a “warning” to Europe. That same day, drones hit two foreign-flagged civilian vessels in ports in the Odesa region. Here are Kyiv residents dealing with damage to their homes as a result of these attacks.

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Roundup: Cautious optimism on trade barriers

Anita Anand told reporters yesterday that she is making progress with provinces when it comes to eliminating interprovincial trade barriers, which sounds great. In fact, she claims that some of those barriers could be “wiped away” in the next thirty days. It would be great news if that’s true, but I have my doubts because these barriers are incredibly difficult to harmonise around the country, and they’re mostly differing regulations, which are perfectly valid exercise of provincial powers. They’re extremely difficult to harmonize because sometimes they differ for a reason. Kevin Milligan explains in this thread if you click through. (He also throws cold water on the notion that we could or should join the EU).

Glad we got through the tariff emergency (at least the first wave of it….). Also glad that people are bringing creativity, energy, and determination to figuring out a medium and long-run response.But I want to throw cold water on three ideas I've seen floated. I'll explain…

Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-02-04T20:24:14.385Z

I have to say that I am very curious regarding the method by which Anand is securing these changes, because I have heard no chatter about provinces being willing to surrender some of their provincial sovereignty in order to eliminate some of these barriers. I have also heard nothing about any kind of common regulatory body that could make determinations and that the provinces would adhere to, because they’ve all eschewed a common securities regulator, which should be low-hanging fruit for regulatory harmonisation, and yet… That would seem to imply that they have been establishing some sort of framework around mutual recognition of standards or credentials, but as of yet we have no real details.

As one example from that story: size and weight regulations for transport trucks.There is a very good reason that BC has detailed rules about snow chains for trucks and other provs may not. We have snowy mountains; some provs do not….www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/…

Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-02-05T20:36:21.924Z

…so this doesn't mean we can't have a Canada-wide standard for truck size/weight. It means you really have to work hard to ensure the standard makes sense for each prov.If you get this wrong, people die. Regs that are too loose result in trucking accidents. So it takes work to get it right.

Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-02-05T20:40:05.709Z

The other note of caution I would make is that even if these barriers were reduced or eliminated, it would take time to reorient supply chains east-to-west rather than north-to-south, so there would be no immediate cushioning effect from any Trump tariffs. People will need to have realistic expectations about what this will achieve, particularly in the short-to-medium term.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine is blaming an explosion at a draft office in Khmelnytskyi region that killed one person and wounded several others as a series of Russian spies orchestrating attacks. 150 Ukrainian POWs were returned in a prisoner swap with Russia. Here are some of the details about how Ukrainians captured two North Korean soldiers fighting in Kursk region. Ukrainians are also noting a marked improvement in the accuracy of North Korean missiles fired at Ukraine.

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