Roundup: Another far-right defeat

The news out of France this weekend was that the far-right was not the victors in their legislative elections, but rather that the left-wing alliance came in with the highest seats, followed by Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, denying the far-right the victory they had been hoping for. This isn’t great for Macron in that his prime minister has resigned and he will have a hard time getting his agenda through the National Assembly, but nevertheless, his gamble did somewhat pay off in that he thwarted the far right from making any further advances. This, along with the fact that Labour won a resounding victory in the UK days earlier, has plenty of people talking about how hopefully the US and Canada will be next to reject the far-right. I am not wholly mollified.

The US remains the big question mark, particularly given all of the attention on president Biden’s fitness to carry on for another term, and we cannot get too complacent here in Canada. While our own far-right is still marginal, the bigger danger remains that the Conservatives continue to try and court those far-right actors and are increasingly taking pages out of the authoritarian playbook. Nevertheless, the Elder Pundits in this country insist that there’s nothing to see here, that things can’t be that bad under Poilievre, or that the concerns of women or LGBTQ+ people are mere exaggerations. They’re not, and we can’t let our guard down at this critical juncture.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces shot down three out of six missiles fired by Russia over the central regions of the country. Russian drones hit an energy facility in the Sumy region on Saturday. Ukrainian drones hit a munitions depot inside Russian territory, causing a massive explosion. Russians claim that Ukrainians were thwarted trying to hijack one of their strategic bombers, but there is no verification of that claim.

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Roundup: Provinces learned they can underfund disaster management

The House of Commons’ national defence committee tabled their report on disaster management earlier this week, and one of its recommendations is for a permanent civilian federal disaster management force that can be deployed for wildfires, floods, hurricanes, or other natural disasters—but they stopped short of recommending a Canadian FEMA, which may not be possible given that this is constitutionally largely an area of provincial jurisdiction, and would require some kind of provincial agreement to operate, and because this is Canada, the provinces would want some kind of say in its operations but wouldn’t want to pay for it, because of course.

One of the problems we’re dealing with as a country is that we’re dealing with the Canadian Forces being at their capacity and they are constantly being asked to deal with disaster management across the country because provincial capacity maxes out too soon. But why does provincial capacity max out? Because they keep cutting funds or under-investing, and creating these situations because they know that regardless of what happens, they can simply call up the federal government to ask them deploy the Canadian Forces, and even more to the point, that they can do it for free because the federal government won’t ask for reimbursement even though they are entitled to. And this has wound up teaching the premiers that there are pretty much no consequences for their under-investing or even cutting the funding for this kind of emergency management, so they are incentivized to rely on the Canadian Forces to do the work for them for free, and now we have reached the end of that being possible.

So, what is the solution? I am wary of the notion of building up a federal force because even if they can manage to get provincial agreements, staff it up (because you would be drawing from the same pool as the Canadian Forces, which has a recruitment and retention crisis), and even if they paid for all of it (which they shouldn’t), this will exacerbate the existing problem of provinces not funding or bolstering their existing forces that are their constitutional responsibility because there will still be a federal backstop. And if the federal government starts asking for reimbursement, either for the use of the Canadian Forces or this hypothetical future force, then the media will be aghast that the federal government is making the province pay in their time of need, completely ignoring that the provincial under-funding created the situation in the first place. We’re at a bit of a rock and hard place, because we have let federalism break down like this, and that’s not good for the country.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian guided bombs struck the Eastern settlement of Selydove, killing two. Ukrainian forces captured a Russian “barn” tank that has been modified to protect against drone attacks. Ukraine launched a drone attack that struck three Russian oil refineries overnight.

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QP: Last chance to get clips before the summer

It’s a sweltering, muggy Wednesday, and everyone hopes the final day before the House rises for the summer. The prime minister was present, while his deputy was not, and the other leaders al deigned to attend for on last go-around to gather some clips for the summer break. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he lamented that the country is broken, and took a swipe at the Bloc, and demanded an election right now. Justin Trudeau said that if the leader opposite was really concerned about affordability, he would help pass their measures to help people rather than play petty partisan games. Poilievre worried that the government is threatening to “shut down” the Quebec forestry sector (not true), and Trudeau responded that unlike the Conservatives, Quebeckers know they need to protect the environment and the economy at the same time. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his assertion that everything  is broken and demanded an election, and Trudeau repeated his same assertion that the Conservatives should support their programmes. Poilievre expounded on just how much the country is a living hell thanks to his “whackonomics,” and Trudeau shot back that the Conservatives are only concerned with protecting the wealthiest, particularly over the capital gains changes. Poilievre claimed the Middle Class™ doesn’t exist anymore, and Trudeau reiterated that Poilievre only cares about himself. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and complained about anglophone mail carriers in Quebec, and Trudeau praised the government’s support for French, including in Quebec, and promised to follow up on it. Blanchet accused the government’s programmes of harming French, and Trudeau dismissed this as “identitarian” squabbling.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he accused the government of coddling CEOs, to which Trudeau patted himself on the back for raising taxes on the wealthiest, and took a shot at the Conservatives in the process. Singh tried again in French, and Trudeau listed the programmes they have delivered.

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QP: Harvesting carbon and capital gains clips

As the final sitting week of the spring begins, with a heat wave starting, neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, but most of the other leaders were. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about Bloc having concerns about the capital gains changes, and that their hoped-for amendments wouldn’t happen next week when it comes into force. Anita Anand praised the plan the government put forward for the economy, which the Conservatives don’t have. Poilievre kept needling the Bloc, claiming they were taking Quebeckers’ money and giving it to Ottawa. Jean-Yves Duclos asked Poilievre to explain why people who make half a million in capital gains should pay less tax than a nurse making $50,000 in a year. Poilievre switched to English to worry about the so-called “cover up” of the costs of the carbon levy, claiming it costs the economy $30 billion per year, and wondered what else they were hiding about their other tax hikes. Steven Guilbeault pointed out the reductions in emissions while the Conservatives want to let the planet burn. Poilievre tried the same again, insisting the carbon levy won’t change the weather or stop a single forest fire, to which Jonathan Wilkinson wondered if Poilievre was a climate denier. Poilievre turned back to the capital gains changes, and cited the “Food Professor” about it (seriously?!), and Anita Anand praised…housing starts. Come on!

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he worried that the government would discredit the Hogue Commission if she didn’t come to the same conclusion as the government. Dominic LeBlanc said that he was pleased that Justice Hogue had agreed to look into this. Therrien railed that the prime minister has slept on the foreign interference file for months, and LeBlanc insisted that they have taken this seriously since the get-go.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he railed that progress on the Truth and Reconciliation calls to action were taking too long to be implemented. Patty Hajdu insisted that they have been working, and that she just stood with the National Chief to announce funding for a Northern Ontario hospital. Singh repeated the question in French, and got much the same response.

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QP: Boutique exemptions from capital gains changes

The prime minister was absent for the second Wednesday in a row, off to the G7 meeting in Italy, but fortunately, his deputy was there today in his stead (not that she was going to answer all of the questions like he would). The PM’s absence meant that certain other leaders weren’t going to bother to show up, but Pierre Poilievre was there, and he led off in French, and he started off by calling out the Bloc for voting for the capital gains changes yesterday, and Chrystia Freeland said that this was about tax fairness for working people, and that this will unlock $3 billion for the province of Quebec in new revenue, while the Conservatives don’t like investments by the government. Poilievre insisted that this takes money away from doctors, forcing them to move elsewhere (not really true, and that’s the province’s responsibility to pay them properly), taking more swipes at the Bloc along the way. Freeland said that Quebeckers understand the importance of fairness, and that it’s important for a nurse not to pay higher taxes than the ultra-rich, and that they understand the government needs revenue to invest in healthcare. Poilievre switched to English to claim that Canada’s growth is the worst in the G7, and that housing costs have doubled, blaming the taxation of the federal government, and accused them of “taxing away” doctors, homebuilders and entrepreneurs. Freeland said that we all learned yesterday that the Conservatives chose a side, and it wasn’t the side of teachers or welders, and that they were always on the side of those at the very top. Poilievre insisted that the welders she mentions start small businesses and incorporate, and that this was going to tax them (not really true), which would also kill housing. Freeland suggested that they get things right, because this is about a two-thirds inclusion rate, not a two-thirds tax rate, and accused him of faking his support for workers. Poilievre insisted they were taxing farmers in a food crises, taxing home builders in a housing crisis, taxing away doctors in a healthcare crisis, and taxing small businesses in an economic growth crisis, and this was all economic vandalism. Freeland noted the average salary in Poilievre’s riding and that most couldn’t dream of making $250,000 per year, and yet he was standing with the ultra-rich.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and claimed that the capital gains increases would hurt Quebeckers, and proposed an amendments around home owners who were not speculators. Freeland thanked the Bloc for their vote, and recited her points about generational fairness. Therrien insisted that their concern was for the savings of self-employed people, and Freeland repeated the lines about fairness and funding investments, which would benefit Quebec to the tune of $3 billion.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and railed about the costs of rent (which is provincial jurisdiction) and demanded the government guarantee housing. Soraya Martinez Ferrada said that they were working with non-profits and municipalities to build more affordable housing. Bonita Zarrillo also accused the government of raising rents, and again Martinez Ferrada repeated her back-patting in English.

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QP: Hosing the field with doomsday disinformation on capital gains

The prime minister present today, as was his deputy, for one of the few remaining times this spring. All of the other leaders were present as well today. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and worried that the prime minister’s watch has seen the wealthiest double their incomes while youth can’t afford a home. Justin Trudeau said that they are rising the capital gains exemption in order to fund the housing and programmes that younger people need. Poilievre insisted that Trudeau’s own numbers show that the wealthy got wealthier, and that his tax increases only punish the poor and middle class. Trudeau insisted that this was just the Conservatives going to bat for the wealthy. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and got much the same reply from Trudeau, who added that if it didn’t have real-world impacts, it would be funny to watch the Conservatives tie themselves into rhetorical knots. Poilievre railed that everyone was paying higher taxes thanks to Trudeau, linking the carbon levy in that, and Trudeau trotted out the lines about the carbon rebates, and helping people who need it. Poilievre trotted out an illiterate and innumerate line about the capital gains changes, getting it completely wrong, and Trudeau took this as an opportunity to take shots at the Conservatives choosing to vote against youth and the Middle Class™.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, read a headline about the RCMP saying they don’t have the legislative tools to fight hate speech, and demanded support for their bill to remove the religious exemption from hate speech. Trudeau listed measures they have taken, such as the Online Harms bill and the legislation to criminalise Holocaust denial. Blanchet considered this wasted breath, and raised rhetoric being shouted on the streets of Montreal, to which Trudeau insisted they were trying to fight hate speech and calls for violence.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP and clumsily insisted that the government did nothing on taxing the wealthy for eight years, to which Trudeau reminded him that the first thing they did in office was raise taxes on the one percent and lower it on the Middle Class™, and that the NDP voted against that. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same answer.

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QP: Not taking yes for an answer on Hogue

The prime minister was off in Quebec City to meet with the premier of that province, but his deputy was present, having just made the formal announcement of the Ways and Means motion on the capital gains changes that they want to use as a political wedge. Most of the other leaders were away, and Pierre Paul-Hus led off in French, and raised the NSICOP report, and demanded to know the names of who was implicated. Dominic LeBlanc noted that he was surprised by the question because Andrew Scheer had sent a letter asking to send this to the Hogue Commission, and there was a Bloc motion on the same thing, and the government was going to support it. Paul-Hus wanted it clear whether the prime minister would reveal the names to Justice Hogue, and let her deal with it, and LeBlanc repeated that they were going to support the Bloc motion. Jasraj Hallan took over in English to ramp up the rhetoric, launching accusations, and LeBlanc reiterated that they agree the Commission is well-placed, and already has access to the documents in question. Hallan torqued his rhetoric even further, and LeBlanc again said they would support the Bloc motion, and LeBlanc said that he asked the deputy RCMP commissioner what would happen if he stood up and read off those names, and was told he would be criminally charged, which he would not do. Hallan switched topics to claim there was some secret carbon price report that the PBO couldn’t release (there was no report), and Steven Guilbeault recited his lines about the PBP report saying that eight out of ten households got more money back than they spent.

Alain  Therrien led for the Bloc, and patted himself on the back for their motion, claiming they were being the adults in the room. LeBlanc repeated that they would support the motion. Therrien demanded further reassurance that they would turn over any additional documents and LeBlanc assured him they were.

Jagmeet Singh conflated a number of incidents with the NSICOP report revelations, and Dominic LeBlanc gave some back-patting on the only government actually taking action. Singh repeated the conflation in French, and got much the same response. 

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Roundup: A political problem means classified briefings

The naming-names debate continued apace yesterday, starting at the public safety committee, where Dominic LeBlanc pushed back against Conservative theatrics demanding the release of the names (to atrocious behaviour from all sides), while at that that same meeting, the director of CSIS and the RCMP deputy commissioner also warned that releasing those names will cause both reputational damage to individuals who can’t defend themselves on the basis of allegations that aren’t backed up, and it can also damage ongoing investigations. There is no due process that comes with naming names for the sake of it.

Ultimately, however, this remains a political problem for the parties, because they need to know who among their ranks was compromised, and that requires all leaders to have the appropriate security classifications (and apparently for privy council members who are no longer ministers, there is a Treasury Board-esque process now that requires renewal, which is an extremely odd and concerning process because MPs are not government employees and they use intelligence in a different manner, so they shouldn’t need to use the same process). And as Philippe Lagassé points out, this isn’t necessarily a problem for law enforcement so much as it is for the parties. If the leaders get the classified briefings, they know which of their MPs may be compromised (and it’s is a “may,” not an “is” because we’re dealing with unverified intelligence that may not be true), and give them the space to either sideline them, prevent them from contesting the next election under the party banner, or to give those MPs the ability to try and exonerate themselves outside of the public eye where their reputations could be irreparably damaged. But again, this relies on the leaders doing the right thing and getting briefed, not hiding behind the bullshit excuse that they would be “muzzled” if they did.

There are a couple of other problems here. One is that in talking with people familiar with NSICOP, that they have had a tendency to exaggerate things in their reports because they also have an agenda of trying to make themselves look better and to take more of the spotlight, so we should take some of these allegations with a grain of salt. As well, some of those allegations are back to the problem that we heard about in other places where some of the intelligence was rejected by the National Security Advisor because they believed it was normal course of diplomatic engagement and not interference, which is something the Hogue Commission is struggling with. We don’t have a complete picture for a lot of reasons, and everyone is jumping to conclusions and needs to dial it down.

Programming Note: I’m away for the weekend, so there won’t be a Saturday post.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine shot down 17 of 18 Russian drones overnight, with the damage of the final drone in the Khmelnytsky region.

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QP: The overwrought demands for a gas tax holiday

The prime minister was in town but otherwise engaged, while his deputy was present for QP today. Most of the other leaders were present, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and recited a bunch of abject nonsense about the Bloc supporting the government, and wondered why the government didn’t formalise their supposed “coalition.” Chrystia Freeland noted that Quebeckers believe in a lot of things the government does, such as child care, and the that the Conservatives only want to cut, cut, cut. Poilievre said that he would cut taxes, and went on another rant about the Bloc. Freeland responded talking about social solidarity, and raising the rate of capital gains. Poielivre switched to English to take a swipe at the out-of-context comments by Mark Holland on Friday, and wondered if he would also call out his leader for taking his so-called “private jet” (which is not a private jet, it’s the Canadian military’s plane). Holland says that he was mistaken on the math, that it wasn’t 37,000 kilometres, but 44,000 kilometres to meet the supposed savings the Conservatives promised, and that they were meeting the existential challenge of climate change unlike the Conservatives. Poilievre dismissed this as “whacko math,” and decried the government’s climate plans before demanding the gas tax holiday. Steven Guilbeault repeated the point about the Conservatives’ math, which meant that a person could drive from the North Pole to the South Pole and back, and have kilometres remaining. Poilievre again dismissed this and demanded people get their gas tax holiday from the “miserable economy.” Guilbeault replied with another example of how far someone would have to drive to achieve the supposed savings the Conservatives claim.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and decried another Liberal MP’s comments on bilingualism, to which Pablo Rodriguez pointing out that the Bloc keeps voting against language funding. Therrien continued on his tear about the Liberals disrespecting French, and Rodriguez dismissed it as a ridicule question.

Leah Gazan rose for the NDP, and decried the lack of progress on the MMIW report, and Gary Anandasangaree read some anodyne talking points about systemic racism, and that they tabled their progress report today. Heather MacPherson went on a rant about the Liberals not doing enough to stop the war in Gaza. Mélanie Joly agreed the situation was catastrophic, which is why Canada supports the Biden plan.

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QP: Fun with gas tax math

The PM was off in Toronto, where he had made a vaccine facility announcement, while his deputy was off to Halifax, and all of the other leaders were similarly absent (because why sit on a Thursday?). Andrew Scheer led off for the Conservatives, and after spelling out a doom scenario for families over the summer, pitched their Supply Day motion of cancelling all federal gas taxes until Labour Day, under the rubric that this will let these suffering families take a road trip. Steven Guilbeault called this a “prime cut of Conservative baloney,” and that the savings the Conservatives claim for a family from Alberta is based on them travelling 37,000 kilometres, saying you could to from the North Pole to the South Pole and have kilometres left. Scheer insisted this was just not true, and repeated his talking points, and this time Guilbeault walked Scheer through the math, where the Albertans would have to use 3293 litres in those three months, at an average of 8.9 kilometres per litre, getting to the 37,000 kilometre figure, meaning they would have to drive for ten consecutive days. Scheer deployed the monetary policy and budgets balancing themselves lines, and accused Trudeau of going to the private islands of “wealthy lobbyists” (which is false, and if you bring up the Aga Khan, he was not a lobbyist, and his foundation was lobbying for increased relief funds for Syrian refugees), so he doesn’t worry about family road trips. This time Mark Holland got up to say that Canadians’ summertime fun isn’t to be locked in a car for ten straight days, and turned this into an accusation about trying to cut dental care and child care. Luc Berthold took over in French, demanding the gas tax holiday with a Quebec spin, to which Guilbeault insisted that their calculations were off, and to achieve the savings they claim, a family would have to drive from Quebec City to Mexico City and back again, and then there again and back. Berthold insisted that the Liberals can’t do math, and demanded the tax holiday. Guilbeault again noted that to achieve the savings the Conservatives claimed, and repeated that it would require using 3293 litres over three months, along with his line about the North Pole to the South Pole.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, claimed that the Liberals have woken up to the healthcare crisis in the Outaouais region, and demanded higher transfers for Quebec. Steve MacKinnon said that the Quebec government needs to wake up to the problems in the region. Therrien insisted that they needed more federal funding, and again demanded it. MacKinnon repeated that the province needs to invest in the region.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and blamed the federal government for increased homelessness in Montreal, which is a real reach. Soraya Martinez Ferrada said that they are working with municipalities and not insulting them like the Conservatives do. Bonita Zarrillo raised a recent report on the inability for women with disabilities to get adequate care when pregnant, and Mark Holland insisted that they are providing care, and that the Conservatives want to vote against it.

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