Tag Archives: Inflation

Roundup: Reducing chances of a wage-price spiral

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There have been a lot of misleading things said about the Bank of Canada’s concerns around a potential wage-price spiral, most of them from left-wing economists or union leaders (as well as Jagmeet Singh and Pierre Poilievre), who have wrongly said that either governor Tiff Macklem was blaming wages for inflation (false), or that he told business leaders not to raise wages (also false). What Macklem said was that when negotiating contracts, to remember that they were determined to get inflation back to two percent as quickly as possible, so don’t keep high raises out for too long, because that is what could drive a wage-price spiral. What that means is that because wages would be above the rate of inflation, it means that prices—particularly for services—would need to be raised to pay for those wages, which then keeps inflation higher for longer. It’s also why it’s not just price controls that have happened in the past, but wage and price controls, to try and keep that impetus in check.

Payroll data has been released, which demonstrates why the concerns about a wage-price spiral are abating. Kevin Milligan explains:

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618678055396081665

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618679010099359744

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618680872106086402

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618691478653644800

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 338:

Russians fired more missiles at Kyiv and places like Zaporizhzhia, killing eleven civilians in the process.

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1618859295851921409

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Roundup: A few notes on the hybrid quotes

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Because the hybrid parliament debate will resume in the New Year, CTV has a collection of quotes from MPs both here and in comparable Parliaments abroad about the format, and I find some of the commentary to be lacking. A few notes:

  1. Lots of talk about being able to participate while stick, while ignoring that this is setting up an extremely unhealthy system of presenteeism. MPs should be allowed to take sick days or leave if they require treatment for something like cancer, and not be made to feel guilty about it.
  2. There was some talk about party whips setting up rules for when MPs can appear virtually, but there seemed to be a lot of “when they feel like it” happening, particularly since Niki Ashton only appeared in Ottawa for two days the whole fall sitting, which should be absolutely unacceptable.
  3. Our committees are in crisis because of how they have been limited by hybrid sittings and the lack of interpretation staff. Only two government bills that were not budget-related got passed in the fall. Two. Some bills were in committee the entire thirteen sitting weeks that they sat, and are still not out of committee. Additionally, there are some committee chairs who are only appearing virtually (while not sick or infirm), which should not be allowed because it’s impossible to moderate a room you’re not in.
  4. The piece did quote the interim head of the interpretation service, but absolutely none of the MPs raised a single concern for the injuries that they are telling the interpreters to suffer so that they can appear remotely when they feel like it. The continued lack of basic awareness or concern about this remains unconscionable, and it’s absolutely shameful that MPs can’t arse themselves to care.
  5. Only the Bloc raised the concerns that ministers aren’t accessible because they are moving increasingly remotely, and allowing virtual voting is even worse for that. It used to be the time when MPs could get a chance to catch a minister’s attention about a matter that requires their attention, because they were all in the Chamber at the same time. Now most ministers run out of the Chamber when votes begin and vote on their phones from their cars, and they are no longer accessible, and that is a very big problem. Similarly, the more MPs and ministers are remote, the less they are able to be button-holed by journalists, making them even less accountable than they already are (especially because the architecture of the West Block makes it too easy for them to avoid media, even when they are there).

I don’t care how convenient MPs find hybrid sittings or remote voting, it’s degrading our institutions and it needs to come to an end immediately.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 302:

I could find no stories on the situation on the ground in Ukraine because absolutely all of the coverage was about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to Washington DC. During Zelenskyy’s visit with President Joe Biden at the White House, we got confirmation that the US will be sending Patriot anti-missile systems to Ukraine. Zelenskyy then headed to the Capitol, where he met with Nancy Pelosi (who enthused that this was just like when her father met with Winston Churchill in Congress 81 year ago), before Zelenskyy addressed a joint session of Congress. His message—that aid for Ukraine isn’t charity, but an investment in democracy and security, at a time when a number of US representatives are publicly doubting the “blank cheque” that has been given to Ukraine.

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Roundup: Are the rising Senate costs that alarming?

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Because this is sometimes a media criticism blog, I have to say that the CBC story on the rise in bureaucratic expenses in the Senate is…textbook alarmism. Look at the framing. The front third of the story are quotes from senators lighting their hair on fire at the seventy percent rise in costs!, divorced from any actual facts or context. And by the time you get more than halfway down, you have a spokesperson for Senate administration explaining some of those costs, and not necessarily even noting that seven years ago, the Senate was operating at a greatly reduced capacity because Stephen Harper had avoided making any appointments in a fit of pique in the wake of the ClusterDuff scandal, and senators were keeping their heads down lest more hellfire rain down on them. But none of this is mentioned by way of comparison, and only some mention is paid to the fact that because the Senate is now broadcasting its proceedings, it takes a lot more staff to do that work, which is partly why the costs have gone up.

The other thing that nobody is really discussing among all of the alarmist rhetoric and the wailing and gnashing of teeth—obligatory in any story that mentions costs, because Canadian journalism and the CBC in particular absolutely love cheap outrage—is the fact that turning the Senate into a more “independent” chamber is going to make things more costly, because senators can no longer rely on party infrastructure to do some of that work for them on the cheap. It shouldn’t be that big of a mystery as to why displacing that will make other costs rise, but nobody wants to talk about that—only the supposed good that “independent” senators bring. (And some of them do bring good! But the Liberals in particular lost a whole lot of institutional memory and state capacity because Trudeau rather gutlessly cut his party’s senators loose rather than face what was coming with the Auditor General’s report, and pretended it was for the sake of altruism and principle).

While I have a lot of strong opinions about what is happening in the Senate these days, the so-called rise in costs is not one of them. The story here is largely a lot of nothing, dressed up in a frightening costume for clicks, but that’s the current media modus operandi, unfortunately.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 299:

There have been renewed attacks on Kyiv in the early hours, while there is a watchful eye on the Belarusian Border as Putin heads to visit his ally there. Here’s a look at the significance around Hanukkah for Ukraine’s Jewish community, while in Kherson, there are questions as to how Russian forces were able to overtake the city so easily in the first place.

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QP: One last kick at the can for 2022

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It was the final Question Period of 2022, and not a moment too soon. After we got the traditional recitation of the Xmas Poem as read by Anthony Housefather (some of whose rhymes were a bit more tortured than in years previous), things got underway.

Pierre Poilievre led off in French, raising a statistic about the rising cost of Christmas dinners, and wedged in a lurid tale of people threatening to access MAiD rather than living in grinding poverty (which ignores that that is not a criteria). Justin Trudeau said that he would like to join in and wish people happy holidays, but knows that it can be difficult because of global inflation, which is why they have created support programmes for those who need it, including with dental care and childcare. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his same points, but trying to tie poverty to government waste. Trudeau noted that Canadians step up for each other, and listed his government’s actions again. Poilievre again tried to tie supposed government waste to inflation, and Trudeau deployed his well-worn talking points about the government making the decision to help Canadians when they needed it and it resulted in the economy roaring back faster than our comparator countries. Poilievre demanded to know when the “waste” identified by the Auditor General would be paid back, but Trudeau mentioned this week’s by-election in his paean about his government supporting Canadians. Poilievre could not end the year without deploying a “triple, triple, triple” ear worm in worrying about heating bills, and Trudeau noted that the federal carbon price doesn’t kick in over in Atlantic Canada until the spring, so Poilievre was trafficking in misinformation. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and tried to intimate that the premiers wanted to meet with him “like a family dinner,” and Trudeau noted that he has met with premiers more than any of his predecessors, noted that he was meeting with François Legault in a few days, but he was there to work with provinces to solve the healthcare crisis. Blanchet torture the family dinner even more, and Trudeau noted that the system as it exists isn’t working, which is why he was there to invest more, but it would take more than just throwing money. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and asked a very selective reading of the health-related promises from the election, and wondered where the action was. Trudeau noted that they were working toward rewards and outcomes with provinces. Singh declared that when he as prime minster, he would keep his promises (to much laughter), and demanded to know what happened to the promised $25/hour wage for long-term care workers, and Trudeau repeated that the federal government is there to step up, and that they would work with provinces to raise those wages.

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QP: Mary Ng will only apologise twice

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The prime minister was present today, while his deputy was off in Paris. Shortly before things got underway, the Ethics Commissioner released his report on a contract Mary Ng’s office awarded to a friend of hers, so that was also going to come up. All of the other leaders were present today, save Elizabeth May, for what it’s worth. After a statement about the passing of Jim Carr, Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he first offered condolences to Carr’s family and to the Liberal caucus for their loss. With that out of the way, he asked about the list of soon-to-be banned hunting rifles and wanted more work on fighting criminals instead. Justin Trudeau thanked Poilievre for his thoughts about Carr, and said a few nice words about Carr’s legacy in both French and in English. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the question about “Grandpa Joe’s hunting rifle in Cape Breton” versus criminals, and this time, Trudeau insisted that Canadians are united about keeping communities safer from assault weapons, but they needed to ensure the ban stays in place, which is why they were moving ahead with their legislation but they would continue to consult to ensure they are capturing the right weapons. Poilievre raised the concerns of his backbench MPs about those weapons, and tried to insist this was a big plot against hunters. Trudeau dismissed this as misinformation and said they were going to continue to consult on the list because they were not interested in hunters, but the Conservatives only wanted to make assault weapons legal again. Poilievre then changed topics to story about immigration case files assigned to employees who are no longer there, to which Trudeau read some pabulum lines about modernising the system and resolving the “technical issues.” Poilievre changed topics again to the Ethics Commissioner’s finding that Mary Ng violated the rules in giving a contract to a friend, which he tried to tie to other previous scandals. Trudeau instead countered with some crowing about last night’s by-election victory in Mississauga—Lakeshore and how Canadians rejected Poilievre instead.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and after giving condolence about Jim  he concern trolled about immigration levels in Quebec before raising the story about the case files going to phantom employees before demanding that Quebec be given full control over its immigration system. Trudeau said that Quebec has the capacity to take more immigrants and they are there to help them with it. Blanchet insisted that Roxham Road-arriving asylum claimants were difficult to integrate and demanded more control over the system. Trudeau reiterated that they did not set a target for Quebec and they were there to work with the province.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, demanded the government do something about the paediatric health crisis in the country. Trudeau said that they realise there is a crisis, but they are not going to send a blank cheque like the NDP wants and will ensure they get outcomes. Singh repeated his demand to “find solutions” in English, and Trudeau repeated his response.

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QP: A rare ejection from the Chamber

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The prime minster was present for the first time in over a week, and unusually, none of the other leaders were present. Jasraj Hallan led off, and accused the government’s deficit spending of “forcing” the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, which is obvious nonsense to anyone who pays a modicum of attention. Hallan accused that spending of hiring Canadians, complained about the carbon price, and demanded it be scrapped. Justin Trudeau said that the Conservatives were consistent in opposing the government being there for Canadians, listing measures they voted against, while the government would continue to be there for people while being fiscally responsible. Hallan accused Trudeau of sitting in an ivory tower, spending money, and driving inflation, and insisted he was the “architect” of sending children to food banks. (Honestly, who is writing this material?) Hallan concluded by wondering when the prime minister would understand that Canadians can’t afford any more of his “failures.” Trudeau pointed out that Conservatives complain the government doesn’t help people and then oppose their measures to help people, whether it’s dental care, rental supports, or child care. Tracy Gray took over to complain that people can’t afford to heat their homes, blaming the prime minister on “tripling down” on carbon prices. Trudeau said that he has heard that people are facing difficult times, which is why they are there with supports in spite of Conservative opposition. Richard Martel took over in French to decry the interest rate increase, and he too blamed the government for inflation and carbon prices. Trudeau recite that while they are concerned about the rising cost of living, they are doing something about it unlike the Conservatives. Martel said it was “ironic” that the government says they understand concerns while they gave benefit cheques to dead people, before he demanded the cancellation of carbon prices. Trudeau said it was incredible to see Conservatives attack and make fun of benefits that helped Canadians during the height of the pandemic.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and raised the RCMP contract for the company with Chinese ties, wondering how the prime minister could explain the lack of checks on this bid. Trudeau noted that they were concerned by the contract and that they would ensure that national security interests were not jeopardised. Therrien wondered why they didn’t consult with the CSE on this procurement, and Trudeau reiterated that they are looking into the contract.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he shouted that they prime minister was absent on the file with the crisis in children’s hospitals. Trudeau took a script to read the measures that have taken around procuring medications and transfers. Don Davies read the same condemnation in English, demanding the prime minster sit down with premiers to solve the crisis. Trudeau insisted that they were increasing transfers and that they would be there to ensure there were significant improvements. 

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QP: “Bludgeoning” the Auditor General

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The prime minister was still in Montreal at the COP15 biodiversity conference, and his deputy was in town but elsewhere, while only some of the other leaders were present today. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he decried the interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, but blamed “inflationary deficits” from the government as the cause, which is not actually true, no matter the misquote that Poilievre attributed to the Bank Governor, and told the government to stop spending. Randy Boissonnault responded that the Bank is independent, that Canadians are living through difficult times, and he rejected the notion that their investments caused inflation, quoting the former Bank Governor, Stephen Poloz, that the investments stopped deflation, and then implored them to support Bill C-32. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the same misleading concerns before quoting a single mother from a news story, saying that she listened to the government’s assurances that interest would be low for long. Boissonnault responded that Poilievre shouldn’t talk about advice given that he told people to invest in crypto, before he listed measures the government has taken to help people. Poilievre then changed topics, and raised objections from the Liberal MP for Yukon to the firearms legislation as currently envisioned and needled the government about it. Marco Mendicino gave a fairly standard response about not targeting hunters and farmers and that the bill gives resources to police and border agencies. Poilievre switched back to French, to raise the story of the RCMP getting a contract linked to someone under criminal suspicion for espionage in the United States, and whose parent company is in China. Helena Jaczek noted that they are studying the issue, but the company did meet their needs, so they are ensuring that they are protecting national security. Poilievre returned to English to accuse the answer of being “encrypted in bureaucratese” before repeating the question, and Mendicino noted that there is a rigorous process for contracts and they are scrutinising the process run by independent civil servants, and then raised the independent panels observing the last two elections to point out that they took actions but the Conservatives did not.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and gave an analogy about dangerous driving as a way of demanding the federal government increase health transfers to provinces. Mark Holland stood up to offer bland assurances that they are continuing to invest in the system. Therrien insisted there was no cooperation, and demanded increased transfers. Carolyn Bennett insisted they were working with the provinces to ensure there was not only funding but a national vision on healthcare, and listed the transfers sent to provinces.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and decried the interest rate hike, and demanded the prime minister find a way to tackle inflation without hurting workers. Boissonnault reminded him that the Bank of Canada is independent and the government is doing their job of keeping fiscal firepower for when they need it and listed actions they have taken. Singh switched to French to worry about consumer debts and repeated his same demand, Boissonnault repeated his same answer.

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QP: Being ham-fisted on the hunting rifle concerns

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The prime minister was off having a photo op with Doug Ford about electric vehicles, and his deputy was also absent, leaving Pierre Poilievre as the only leader in the Chamber. Poilievre led off in French, worrying about a report released today that predicts the price of food will increase by another seven percent next year, but blamed the federal government’s “inflationary spending” for it, which is utterly risible because we know that food price inflation has bene in large part because of climate change causing droughts in food-producing regions around the world. Randy Boissonnault noted that high food prices are global, because extreme weather events have led to poor harvests and supply chains remain snarled, while the government has taken action like the doubled GST credit and dental care. Poilievre switched to English to blame rising food prices on carbon prices, which is again not the problem. Karina Gould praised their measures to help vulnerable Canadians, and noted that if Poilievre was sincere about affordability, he would have voted for their measures. Poilievre then claimed that the government was trying to ban hunters because the of the sweeping nature of the list in the amendments at committee, and demanded the reverse the “ban.” Marco Mendicino first noted that tomorrow is the 33rd anniversary of the École Polytechnique shooting, and they remain in solidarity with victims. Poilievre insisted that they too are concerned about gun crime, but the problem are guns coming across the border rather than hunters, and demanded they reinforce the border rather than attacking hunters. Mendicino reminded him they invested $450 million in the border over the past two years, and invested in CBSA, while the Conservatives voted against all of those measures. Poilievre insisted that the results of the Liberal policy was an increase in violent crime, and that their expensive policies are not working, and switched to French to demand to know why the government isn’t targeting “real crime.” Mendicino repeated his previous response in French.

 Claude DeBellefeuille led for the Bloc, and raised a report that raises the alarm about species at risk, while the government has authorised oil exploration off the shore of Newfoundland and Labrador, which is the right whale’s habitat. Julie Dabrusin read that the marine protected area will remain protected and any exploitation activities in the area will be determined on a case-by-case basis, and that the tender process does not authorize production activities. DeBellefeuille repeated her question, calling it special treatment for oil companies. Dabrusin repeated that any proposal to drill in those areas would be subject to the Impact Assessment Act, but they are not there.

Leah Gazan rose for the NDP, raising the murder of three more Indigenous women in Winnipeg to an alleged serial killer, and the decision by the city not to look for remains in a landfill, and demanded more help. Marc Miller said that he too was concerned and that he spoke with the mayor and wanted to do more where he could. Niki Ashton took over by video on the same issue, raising that the alleged killer has ties to white nationalism, and again demanded more action. Miller said that he was concerned and has a meeting in January about coming to solutions.

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QP: Legitimate points lost in the partisan noise

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While the PM was off at a photo op in London, Ontario, to praise the rollout of the kludge they are calling dental care, only two other leaders were present in the Chamber. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he raised the increase in violent crime statistics, and wondered why the government wasn’t investing in police or CBSA and were banning hunting rifles instead with an estimate that the buyback could cost an additional billion dollars. Marco Mendicino offered the bland reassurance that their legislation doesn’t target farmers and hunters, but targets assault weapons like have been used at mass shootings. Poilievre switched to English to list some of the rifles in the list to be banned, insisting they were about ducks and vermin on farms, while Mendicino insisted that the goal was to target assault-style rifles. Poilievre cited a statistic that 82 percent of guns used in crimes in Toronto were smuggled across the border, and accused the government of targeting hunters. Mendicino accused Poilievre of spreading disinformation (though there is some grey area here because there are concerns about some of the guns listed), and accused the Conservatives of not voting in favour of supports for CBSA. Poilievre switched topics, worried about particular survey results about housing affordability, and wondered how people can’t afford housing in the country with the second-largest landmass on the planet (which is a really, really stupid talking point because we’re not building residential subdivisions on Baffin Island or in the middle of the Canadian Shield and he knows full well that’s the case). Ahmed Hussen pointed to their funding for municipalities to help accelerate their processing and permitting, along with other measures like their rent-to-own programme. Poilievre switched to French to decry this same shortage of housing, along with some disinformation about inflation, but somehow managed to blame the federal government for preventing housing from being built, which is utter nonsense. Hussen repeated his points, with the added jab that the Conservatives don’t have their own housing plan.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about Chinese interference, along with his particularly odd accusation about Chinese money flowing into the prime minister’s riding. Marco Mendicino got up to recite the lines about creating the two independent panels and their conclusion that there was no interference. Blanchet demanded an inquiry into his allegation about the money going to the prime minister’s riding, and Mendicino shrugged it off with some more talking points about the two panels.

Alexandre Boulerice appeared by video to lead for the NDP to worry about the state of hospitals, demanding the government act, somehow. Adam van Koeverden read a script about the federal government working with provinces. Charlie Angus demanded that the government end the underfunding of Indigenous children in care, and to end the court challenge, to which Patty Hajdu reminded him that they have put forward a record sum of money in partnership with First Nations leaders.

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QP: Careful hewing to prepared lines about national security

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The prime minister was in the Chamber for his usual Wednesday spot of proto-Prime Minister’s Questions, as were all of the other leaders, which hasn’t happened for a few weeks. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he once again returned to the Global News report that China had funnelled money to federal candidates in 2019, and wanted to know if the prime minister had gone back to CSIS to ask if there was any evidence to support such an allegation. Justin Trudeau said that he has to be very careful in answering questions about national security, and with a script in front of him, recited that Canada and its allies are regularly targeted by foreign states like China, including during election campaigns, and that his government had more steps than any other including creating an independent panel tasked with assessing the risk coming from foreign countries, and those panels confirmed that the electoral integrity was not compromised, and concluded with yes, he receives regular briefings. Poilievre switched to English, said it was interesting that he said he did get briefings, and repeated to know if he got one post Global News report on the allegations. Trudeau repeated his same response in English, word-for-word, but added at the end that all parties are briefed about elections. Poilievre said that wasn’t the question, and wanted a yes-or-no answer on a post-Global News briefing. Trudeau very slowly enunciated that in all of the briefings he received, there has never been any mention of candidates receiving money from China in either 2019 or 2021, and praised the panels once again. Poilievre wanted a yes-or-no answer on whether Trudeau asked for briefings after the Global News story, but Trudeau went on about how Poilievre, a former minister, knows the importance of respecting national security guidelines and that because Poilievre was the former minister for elevations integrity, he knows this, but also added that when Poilievre was minister, he did nothing about adding security against interference while the current government did. Poilievre was incredulous by the notion that Trudeau didn’t demand a briefing on the story, but moved on to ask if there was any electoral interference at all. Trudeau reminded him that Canada is regularly subject to some level of foreign interference, including from China, including during elections, which Poilievre would know when he was minister of elections, and noted that the two previous leaders did get briefings before, during and after the elections on foreign interference.

Yves-François Blanchet wondered at what point the interference goes from a little to a lot, and wondered about Chinese money flowing into Trudeau’s riding was interference or influence. Trudeau stated that rather than allowing partisan accusations to muddy the waters, they created a panel to precisely look at those issues in an objective and non-partisan manner. Blanchet was more specific about Chinese money flowing into Trudeau’s riding at a time a bank was trying to get approval, and Trudeau said that while the Bloc was trying to cast doubt on the integrity of our institutions, he could assure them they were not affected.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, worried about an overloaded hospital in Quebec, and accused the prime minister of sitting on his hands, and demanded the government do more like they did in the pandemic. Trudeau reminded him that they have been working with the provinces. Singh switched to English to worry about Danielle Smith’s “Sovereignty Act” and that she would use it to undermine the Canada Health Act, which proves he doesn’t know what he was talking about because the whole gods damned point of the Act is to put conditions on federal dollars. Trudeau noted that he could understand why people were concerned, but he was going to focus on getting good results for Albertans.

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