Tag Archives: Inflation

Roundup: Poilievre plays victim around the media

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We’re in the first week of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, and he’s already sticking to his antagonistic playbook. He announced his leadership team first thing in the morning, with two deputies—Melissa Lantsman (a Jewish lesbian) and Tim Uppal (a Sikh) in order to inoculate himself against the usual cries that the party is racist and bigoted. A short while later, Quebec MP Alain Rayes announced he was leaving caucus and going to sit as an independent, because he didn’t like the direction Poilievre was going. (Cue everyone insisting that the party has “never been more united,” which is what they all say just before and after such an exit).

Fast-forward a couple of hours, and the federal government has announced their assistance package for low-income people dealing the effects of high inflation, and Poilievre calls a press conference to react. And the spectacle begins. David Akin, one of the reporters present, takes offence that Poilievre insists he won’t take questions (and he hasn’t since he was made leader), and starts shouting questions at him. And what does Poilievre do? Call Akin a “Liberal heckler” (because the pool camera can’t see Akin as he’s behind it), and a few hours later, sends out a fundraising appeal to his base that plays victim, that the media is out to get him, and that they’re all protecting Trudeau, and that you need to send him money to take on both Trudeau and the media. It’s gross, it undermines institutions, it undermines democracy, but he doesn’t care. It’s his game. And most of the media in this country have no idea how to react to it, and it’s going to be a real problem going forward.

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1569903207555497985

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1569872613228400642

As for the government’s assistance package (dental care for low-income children under 12, enhanced rent support for low-income people, doubling the existing GST tax credit, which again, targets low-income households—and yes, the NDP are loudly taking credit for all of it), there are some good analysis threads from Lindsay Tedds and Jennifer Robson, and because these are targeted at the low end, they’re really unlikely to drive inflation, unlike say the cheques certain provinces are sending out to everyone, whether they need them or not. And Poilievre’s insistence that this will make things worse because they increase the deficit (the deficit, if there will even be one this year, isn’t driving inflation—global factors are), and then demands that the government not raise taxes. The only taxes going up is the luxury tax on boats, private planes, and luxury cars. The carbon price is not a tax, and rebates more to lower-income households than they spend. CPP and EI premiums are not taxes. Higher taxes actually fight inflation, lowering them makes it worse. The absolute economic illiteracy should be mind-numbing, until you realises that he gets his information from crypto-bros on YouTube, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1569770945895895042

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 202:

Russian troops are not only retreating from positions in the northeast of the country, they are also retreating in the south, and heading toward positions in Crimea. As these towns and cities are liberated, authorities are moving in to document war crimes against civilians. Of course, shelling does continue around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and Russians are still hitting Kharkiv, even though they have been repelled from the area, which is being taken as a sign of desperation. Analysts believe this rapid retreat is the sign of a spent Russian military, their approach unsustainable,

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1569704142167506944

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Roundup: Inflation starts to cool

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The CPI figures were released yesterday morning, and the headline number has cooled from its peak, and in July was running at an annualized rate of 7.6 percent, the decrease largely being driven by lower gasoline prices. Of course, there are still plenty of other drivers that are keeping it high, some of which are things like food (largely being driven by factors like climate change), hotel stays, and airline charges. But rather than exploring what these drivers are, most of the coverage of the day was focused on the usual wailing and gnashing of teeth that prices are high and demands for the government to do something about it, which, short of wage and price controls—which don’t really work—they can’t do much about. And no, “just give everyone money” is not a solution because that drives demand further. Same as tax cuts or breaks, and in fact, increasing taxes is generally a good way to dampen inflation. Regardless, there is a real incurious narrative to this in the media, which is not surprising, unfortunately.

Meanwhile, here is Kevin Carmichael’s hot take on the figures, while Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem took to the pages of the National Post to offer some reassurance that the Bank is on the case. Economist Stephen Gordon explains the data here on video. Heather Scoffield warns that even if inflation peaked there are too many factors keeping it high for some time to come. And here is a look at the StatsCan analysts who compile the inflation data.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 175:

There was another explosion at an ammunition depot at a military base in Russian-occupied Crimea, and the Ukrainian government will neither confirm nor deny involvement, though they are mockingly calling it “demilitarization,” as a play on Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine.

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Roundup: A supposed “breakthrough” that amounted to nothing

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Federal documents, albeit heavily redacted, are starting to be made public as part of the court challenge around the invocation of the Emergencies Act, and thus far we can see that the Ford government in Ontario offered to meet with those blockading the Ambassador bridge (and were rejected), that the federal government had briefly considered negotiating with the occupiers in front of Parliament Hill, but did not go ahead with it (which is just as well considering their demands were the overthrow of democracy in favour of a ruling junta of occupiers, senators, and the Governor General). The night before the Act was invoked, the government was informed of a “potential breakthrough” with the negotiations happening with the city, which again, were unsuccessful, and the Act was invoked.

This has of course proven to be fodder for certain Conservative leadership candidates who insist that this is some kind of smoking gun that invoking the Act was unnecessary, but that’s not what it indicates, and frankly, you shouldn’t negotiate with a group of right-wing extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievance tourists who think nothing of overturning democracy because their feelings got hurt. But this seems to be where we’re at, which is utterly boggling.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 170:

Analysis of that explosion on the Russian airbase in occupied Crimea shows that as many as twenty Russian warplanes may have been destroyed, which would be the largest single-day loss since World War II. (Kyiv still has not claimed responsibility for the explosion). The head of the International Atomic Agency is calling on Russia and Ukraine to halt shelling near the Zaporizechzhia nuclear plant, and to allow experts to evaluate the safety of the facility. Ukrainian forces have begun their counter-attack in the Kherson region, having recaptured 54 settlements (while 92 percent of the region remains under occupation). In Bucha, civilians murdered by Russians are being buried as numbers because they have not been identified by name. Meanwhile, in Denmark, Western countries pledged more support for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907

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Roundup: Threats and compromises over dental care

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After spending the weekend talking tough on healthcare, Jagmeet Singh made some threats and shook his fist in the direction of Althia Raj yesterday, insisting that if the promised dental care programme doesn’t happen by the end of the year, that he was walking away from the supply-and-confidence agreement with the federal government. As this was hitting the wires, so was a leak that said the government was looking at a temporary cash transfer for eligible households in lieu of dental care this year, because it’s taking longer to implement (even though they insist they are on track). But the federal government hasn’t even decided on a delivery model yet, which is a problem, and premiers haven’t signalled any willingness to work with them on this either, and that’s a problem for all involved. Singh was naïve to believe this could happen in a few months, and the Liberals were stupid to promise that it could, knowing that this was going to be tricky because of the jurisdictional hurdles. And I suspect this is just going to drive cynicism on all sides, because new national social programmes can’t be done on the back of a napkin and rolled out in a few weeks, and everyone has set up expectations that will be nigh-impossible to meet. So good job, everyone. You’ve really helped.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 167:

There are international concerns after Russians shelled the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station, in what is believed to be an attempt to cut power to Ukrainian-held cities in the southern part of the country. We also got word that a Ukrainian grain ship has reached Turkey, but it seems there has been a dispute with the cargo’s buyers in Lebanon, so they may be looking for a new buyer for the corn haul. Because of course. Over the weekend, Russians targeted the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region.

In case you missed it:

  • My column on Michael Chong’s latest round of reform ideas, and some of them are actually good, while others may not be practical given current limitations.
  • For National Magazine, I wrote about the Supreme Court of Canada’s decision around condom refusal and how that can lead to a sexual assault trial.
  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take on the (then-forthcoming) leadership debate and how you shouldn’t count anything out when there’s a ranked ballot in the mix.
  • My column on why we can’t keep ignoring the link between climate change and what it’s done to crops, and by extension, rising food inflation.
  • My Xtra column on this government’s poor record on HIV funding, while they were busy patting themselves on the back at the International AIDS Conference.
  • My column calling out Senator Dasko’s morally bankrupt poll trying to drum up support for the continuation of hybrid sittings, with no mention of the human toll.

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Roundup: Trying for a left-wing populist narrative

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It’s day one-hundred-and-forty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have been pounding Kharkiv, mostly by randomly shelling residential areas to inflict civilian casualties. But as this shelling takes place, the head of MI6 in the UK says that their analysis shows that Russia’s army is nearly exhausted, and that this will open up opportunities for Ukrainian forces to counter-attack in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Turkey says that Russia and Ukraine are about to sign a deal that will re-open Black Sea ports and allow grain shipments to pass through again, and hopefully avert the threat of famines (and likely lower world grain prices). There are still a lot of questions—including whether Russia can actually be trusted—but we’ll see what happens in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1550193058809090054

Closer to home, Jagmeet Singh is trying to play the populist card, and it’s just laughable. It’s like the satire of a populist’s talking points (not that the NDP hasn’t morphed itself from a principled left-wing party to a left-flavoured populist one more than a decade ago). Like Singh and his inner circle looked at Pierre Poilievre’s traction and said “get me a piece of that action,” so they tried to ape his talking points. It’s risible, and it’s a sign of the intellectual vacuum at the centre of our political parties (and no, Liberals, you don’t get to be smug about this one either as your party can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag).

https://twitter.com/theJagmeetSingh/status/1550180051152404482

There are no “Ottawa elites” who are “enraged” by your suggestion. Yes, it got a bunch of scorn from, well, everyone because the last thing you want to do when you’re facing high inflation is to just give everyone even more money. Targeted help, sure, but social assistance and disability are provincial programmes, whereas the Canada Child Benefit is too broad a programme that it has been considered stimulus by the government and every credible economist, which is the last thing you want right now. The GST credit can maybe be a vehicle as it’s more targeted, but you need to be specific about that. As for the notion that corporate price gouging has caused inflation is flat-out wrong (even if it has contributed in a small way). Taxing oil companies won’t solve inflation, and an “excess profit tax” is a fraught move because it gets very tricky to come up with a workable definition of “excess,” particularly given the fact that a) the economy is overheated so of course businesses are going to be making more profit, and b) the world price of oil has more to do with supply constraints and capacity constraints for refining, so just taxing it more doesn’t actually solve any problems. But this kind of ham-fisted economic illiteracy does nothing for Singh’s credibility, and just drags the discourse even further down.

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Roundup: Jockeying for first-place ballot support

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We’re in day one-hundred-and-forty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces damaged a bridge that is critical to supplying Russian troops in southern Ukraine, where Russia is trying to consolidates its territorial gains, making it clear that their supposed aim of “liberating” the predominantly-speaking Donbas region was always a lie. Russians, meanwhile, bombarded the north-eastern city of Kharkiv, and killed more civilians there. On that note, here is a look at Ukrainian refugees being forcibly relocated into Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia has started up a sham tribunal to document “war crimes” from Ukrainians to justify the invasion, and they are using Westerners living in Russia, who are often promoters of conspiracy theories or who are known for being purveyors of disinformation, as their star witnesses. The whole thing is a thinly-veiled propaganda exercise to bolster support for the invasion in Russia, and to provide a counter narrative to the International Criminal Court proceedings against Russians who are involved in actual war crimes in Ukraine, but

Closer to home, the Conservative leadership race is reaching a critical juncture as ballots are being mailed out and candidates are asking for top billing on their ranked ballot. Jean Charest wants another debate, particularly now that Patrick Brown is out of the race, while Roman Baber is trying to make a plea for people to give him a second look and not simply rank him further down-ballot (though the policies he outlined simply remind everyone that yes, this guy is a moron). Speaking of, the National Post has compiled the various policy positions of the leaders, at which point I am force do once again remind everyone that this remains an abomination in our system—leaders are not supposed to be deciding policy and putting it forward in a leadership contest. That is supposed to be the job of the grassroots membership, who have biennial conventions to do just that, but we have so bastardised our system in order to create a faux-presidential primary that we’ve reached this debased state.

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Roundup: Home for the summer

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It is day one-hundred-and-twenty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and still no news out of Severodonetsk, but there is additional bombardment of the area including air strikes. The big news, however, was that the EU has granted the request to make Ukraine a candidate for membership—itself a years-long process that will require great reforms, most especially Ukraine cracking down on its problem of government corruption—but more than anything, this is a symbolic victory. It signals that Ukraine is moving more to the west, and away from Russia, and that further undermines Putin’s aims.

Closer to home, both the House of Commons and the Senate have risen for the summer, the latter being a problem because it was supposed to sit next week and they rammed through a bunch of legislation with little or no debate or scrutiny in order to make it happen. Below is a speech by Senator Paula Simons about one of those bills being expedited, and why that’s a problem (and you’d better believe I have an angry column about this coming out over the weekend).

Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry had an interview with the Commons’ Speaker, Anthony Rota, and frankly I wonder if we’re living in the same reality. Rota seems to think that his method of gentle chiding of MPs gets results, and that they change their behaviours when he hints that he knows who’s being disruptive (but won’t actually name and shame them). Except he doesn’t get results, and they continue to openly flout the rules, because they know that he’ll belatedly make some gentle comment that won’t actually do anything to enforce the rules that they broke, so it keeps happening again and again. But he thinks this is a good way, because things aren’t as bad as they were in the pre-2015 days before the Liberals largely stopped applauding and being as vociferous in their heckles. He’s not doing his job, plain and simple.

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QP: Blair on repeat, into the summer break

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It was the final QP of the sitting, and everyone remains exhausted and cranky. The prime minister was still in Rwanda, while his deputy was present in person. Luc Berthold led off, and he accused the government of incompetence before railing about the passport issue. Karina Gould recited that the government implemented a new strategy at the Quebec offices to ensure there is proper triage of cases. Berthold was incredulous about this, before he pivoted to the inflation number, and demanded the government reduce fuel taxes. Chrystia Freeland listed the measures the government was taking. Berthold switched topics again, and after listing ministerial failures, he accused the government of interfering in an RCMP investigation, and accused the government of not believing an RCMP officer (even if they deserve no benefit of the doubt). Bill Blair asserted that there as no interference, but he doesn’t question the word of any police officer. Stephen Ellis took over in English to make the same accusation, being credulous about the content of those officer’s notes, and Blair repeated his denial and stated there was an independent inquiry under the way. Ellis demanded an investigation into the matter, and Blair repeated his response.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and demanded passport offices be opened seven days a week with extended hours until the situation could be cleared, and Karina Gould reiterated that the station in Montreal was unacceptable, which is why they have managers on the line, and that the offices would be open to midnight, and would be open Friday and Saturday (recognising that Friday is a holiday in Quebec). Therrien took a swipe, saying that they should call in the army, but Gould repeated her points.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he accused the government of waiting for inflation to go away, and Ahmed Hussen picked up on the points about housing to tout government programmes like the housing accelerator fund to “create systemic change” to build more supply. Singh repeated his accusations in French, and got the same response. 

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QP: Too tired to land a punch

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While the prime minister was landing in Rwanda for the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, his deputy was supposed to appear virtually, but didn’t in the end. Every other leader was present, one of them with a special guest. Candice Bergen led off, script on her mini-lectern, and she read the accusations that the PMO interfered in the investigation of the Nova Scotia mass shooting, and demanded an independent investigation into the matter. Bill Blair recited that there was no interference and no pressure, and pointed to the statement of the RCMP to corroborate this. Bergen insisted the government has a pattern of interference, and repeated her demand, and Blair repeated his own denial under the banner that this was the truth. Bergen pivoted to inflation, and demanded tax cuts, saying the government would rather let people suffer than accept their ideas. Jonathan Wilkinson reminded her that they have a package of affordability measures, and that they are working with global partners to stabilise the global oil supply. Luc Berthold took over in French to lament inflation and demanded tax cuts, and Rachel Bendayan denied that the Conservatives’ proposals would lower the cost of living, and that the government won at the Supreme Court to win about carbon prices, and that the Liberals have a plan. Berthold then raised the issue of passport lineups, and Karina Gould assured him that they have strategies to get those who need their passports expeditiously.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he too raised the passport lines with a dose of sarcasm about the prime minister’s international travel, and Gould reiterated that the situation in Montreal is unacceptable but different from elsewhere in the country, and that they have management teams to assist the situation. Blanchet gave it a second go and got the same response. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, his daughter on his arm, and he decried high inflation, demanding action for families. This gave Gould an opening to talk about child care. Singh repeated the question in French, and Gould repeated her points about child care.

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Roundup: Allegations of political interference amidst other errors and omissions

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It’s now around day one-hundred-and-nineteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and while the fighting continues at Severodonetsk, the people of Kharkiv are emerging from the subways and underground shelters they were in when Russian forces bombarded their city, and are finding so much of it shelled and burned. Meanwhile, we’re learning more about the Ukrainian helicopter pilots who were flying rescue missions from the steel plant in Mariupol, getting some of the wounded soldiers to safety.

Closer to home, allegations emerged from documents made public in the mass shooting inquiry in Nova Scotia that a superintendent’s notes said that RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki said she felt she had been disobeyed because he had not released any information about the weapons used, citing that she had promised PMO and Public Safety the information because it was tied to pending gun control legislation, while he said he didn’t want to release it because it would interfere in their investigation into how the weapons were acquired. In a separate interview, the director of communications for the Nova Scotia RCMP was expressing frustration that Lucki’s statements did not match what the department was putting out, and blamed that on political interference. The government immediately denied having made any orders or applied any pressure, and Lucki put out a statement a few hours later which she too denied interfering, but said she should have been more sensitive in her approach to the meeting.

This, of course, touched off a round of outrage and insistence that if the allegations of interference were true that there would need to be heads rolling, but I will confess to having a hard time sorting through this, because what I’ve read of these same documents shows a lot of errors and omissions in the statements the RCMP was putting out, and there is an imperative for RCMP brass and the government to have details and facts that the media are demanding from them. And the RCMP in the province seem to have been self-satisfied that they were putting out false or misleading information throughout the event, which is hard for the Commissioner or the government to deal with when they know there are other facts that aren’t being released. Was there an element of crassness in wanting to know what kinds of weapons were used? I mean, it sounds like it was a legitimate question that media would be asking, so it’s hard to say. I will say that the demands for an emergency committee meeting is unlikely to solve anything more than what we’ve already learned from all involved, and that this is just an excuse for more theatrics at the start of summer that Conservatives want to be able to fundraise off of, but they’ll probably get their wish because all MPs can’t resist putting on a show—especially if it gets unhinged as these meetings inevitably will.

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