Roundup: The allure of citizens assemblies

Yesterday in the mother parliament in Westminster, a group of Extinction Rebellion activists “super-glued” themselves around the Speaker’s chair in the House of Commons. Their demand—somewhat ironically, to “let the people decide” on climate change. Now, it would be ironic given that they are literally in the chamber where the people do decide, but no, what they are demanding is a citizen’s assembly, which is antithetical to democracy. There is a particular romance around these assemblies, which are composed of selected individuals from a perfect cross-section of society, and they are supposed to work by consensus to come up with some kind of solution, under the guidance of experts. Of course, therein lies the problem with this whole system—the people did not elect this assembly, and there is no way to hold them to account for the decisions that they make. As well, evidence suggests that they are fairly manipulable with the right “experts” guiding them, which is why groups like Extinction Rebellion or Fair Vote Canada are enamoured with them—because they are certain that with the “proper guidance,” these assemblies will come to the “correct” decisions, without the mess or compromises of democracy, or more to the point, going through the trouble of organizing that democracy requires to actually make change. This is no way to make big decisions, and politicians shouldn’t pander to groups whose aims are anti-democratic.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 191:

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency remain at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and hope to have a full picture of the situation at the plant by early next week. Here is an explanation as to why this IAEA inspection is so important.

https://twitter.com/CFOperations/status/1565396106577690630

Programming Note: Because it’s a long weekend, posts will resume Wednesday.

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Roundup: UCP contest finds new lows

As the UCP leadership race in Alberta meanders through clown town, outgoing leader Jason Kenney took a slightly bold step, and called Danielle Smith’s “Sovereignty Act” proposal “nuts,” which is an interesting enough intrusion in the race. But, because this is Kenney, he then took it a step too far and spouted a bunch of nonsense about the lieutenant governor not signing it, and no, that’s not how this works. There is pretty much no ability for an LG to refuse to sign legislation post-Statute of Westminster, because they aren’t reporting to the foreign desk of the Imperial government in Britain. Federal powers of disallowance may still be on the books, but have for all intents and purposes gone extinct because we have courts that have the power to strike down laws, and yes, that does matter. So you can bet that if Smith were to win said contest, and did manage to somehow pass said bill without a full-on caucus revolt (because it’s sheer, unconstitutional lunacy), you can rest assured that said bill would be immediately challenged in the courts, if not outright referred to the Supreme Court of Canada by the federal government, where it would summarily be struck down, likely in a ruling from the bench because it is so blatantly unconstitutional on its very face. So we have both Smith and Kenney in the wrong here, and this contest just keeps finding new lows.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 173:

Russian troops spent the weekend shelling the cities of Nikopol and Kramatorsk, as well as claimed the village of Pisky on the outskirts of Donetsk province. This as Ukrainian forces were continuing their counter-offensive in the south, striking the last working bridge over the Dnieper River, cutting off Russian supply lines. Ukrainians also say that they are targeting Russians that are firing near or from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility, and are accusing Russians of using it as a shield. As well, here is a look at Ukrainian drone pilot training, where video game skills are a welcome addition.

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Roundup: Jubilee Weekend (not that you’d know it in Canada)

It’s day one hundred-and-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv has once again come under attack from Russian missiles, who claimed this was about hitting tanks donated by Western countries. Ukrainians, meanwhile, say they have reclaimed Sievierokonetsk in a counter-offensive, but this has not yet been verified. Ukrainians are taking losses, between 60 to 100 per day which is more than the Americans took daily than in the worst of the Vietnam War, but this may also galvanize to them fight even harder as more advanced weapons from allies arrive. Here are stories from the southern city of Mykolaiv, where the shelling is constant.

Meanwhile, NATO is kicking off two weeks of naval exercise in the Baltic Sea which will include Sweden and Finland, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been meeting with Turkey’s president to try and solve the impasse of Turkey blocking Sweden and Finland’s entry into the alliance.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085

Closer to home, it was the celebrations of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee over the weekend, even though the Canadian government kept things as low-key as they possibly could. I have real trepidation about the way in which this government seems to think of Canadian monarchy as an afterthought, because it inevitably leads to politicisation when Conservatives put in more effort, and that is the absolute last thing we want or need. It’s an institution for everyone, and needs to be treated as such. There were, nevertheless, a few CanCon elements in the celebrations in London, as well as some royal Kremlinology about what it all signalled. Tangentially related to the celebration was the 150th anniversary of the Governor General’s Foot Guards in Ottawa, who got their own parade.

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Roundup: Competing nonsense lawsuits

It’s now approximately day ninety-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk says that Russian forces are advancing from all sides. Another 200 bodies have been found in Mariupol, where Russian forces have been pounding the city to rubble.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1529206361338396672

There is also talk about Vladimir Putin having survived an assassination attempt after the invasion began, and Kremlin insiders are discussing a possible successor to Putin as discontent grows with the course of the war. So that’s going well.

Closer to home, I think the situation in New Brunswick is about to do my head in, as two competing lawsuits are colliding—the challenge to the appointment of a unilingual lieutenant governor, and a frivolous lawsuit challenging the fact that the premier violated the “fixed election date” in calling an election. The lieutenant governor suit is going down on appeal because the reasoning in the original decision is a constitutional impossibility (one part of the constitution cannot override another, which the ruling does). And the challenge to the election call is a dead letter because simple statute cannot bind the Crown prerogatives in this way, and Democracy Watch keeps losing this suit every time they attempt it, not to mention that you cannot undo an election. When a legislature is dissolved, it’s dissolved (and no, the UK ruling on prorogation is not the same thing). This is all nonsense and eating up court time unnecessarily, but this is where we’re at.

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Roundup: Pandering to a false narrative, Quebec edition

It is now on or about day ninety of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we have the first war crimes conviction, as the tank commander who pleaded guilty last week to killing civilians has been handed a life sentence. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Russia is waging “total war” intended to inflict as many casualties as possible, and destroy as much infrastructure as they can. Zelenskyy also addressed a gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos, and he told assembled global and economic leaders there to apply “maximum sanctions” to Russia.

Meanwhile, Belarusians are joining the fight on Ukraine’s side, hoping that it will eventually help topple the regime in their own country. As well, the dreaded Russian hackers have not proven effective in the Ukraine invasion, and have themselves been the successful target of government cyber-operations and hactivists, so perhaps their reputation is not as deserved as it has been.

Closer to home, Quebec is close to passing Bill 96, which expands its language laws to almost absurd levels, including forbidding the use of English in nearly all circumstances, and there are concerns that the bill allows for warrantless searches in order to enforce it. (There CBC had an explainer here,  but beware the both-sidesing).This is all predicated on the notion that French is “declining” in Quebec—erm, except it’s not. Census data shows that, and the only decline was where French was the “mother tongue,” meaning that its decline may be because of immigration, most of whom learn French is fairly short order (though this is one area where Bill 96 is again overreaching—and they wonder why they have a labour shortage). Unfortunately, every federal party including the Liberals have bought into this narrative, and are not challenging it very hard. Some Liberal MPs have been to protests in opposition to the bill, which the Bloc freaked out about in Question Period last week, to some minor pushback from the Liberal Quebec lieutenant, but it’s not a good sign when any party refuses to call out a blatantly false narrative because they are afraid it will lose them needed votes. Such courage!

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1528807121692803072

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Roundup: Enjoy your Victoria Day

It’s now approximately day eighty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia says that they now have full control of the steel plant in Mariupol, and by extension the whole city. That means Russians are starting to pull back forces from the area to redeploy elsewhere in the Donbas region, and it looks like fighting is intensifying in the Luhansk region.

Closer to home, it is Victoria Day this weekend, which is the official birthday of the Queen of Canada. So be sure to raise a toast to the current Queen, and Canada’s first Queen (and maybe while you’re at it, the Queen of the North).

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Roundup: Theorizing about Kenney’s slow-motion demise

It is now on or about day eighty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia claims that some 1700 Ukrainian troops have surrendered from the steel plant in Mariupol, which Kyiv won’t confirm. Kyiv is also hoping to negotiate prisoner exchanges, but Russia sounds like they want to prosecute this troops as part of their “de-nazification,” which is complicated by the fact that this particular battalion does contain some of the far-right troops fighters that have blackened the reputation of Ukrainian forces. It also remains to be seen if Russia will respect their obligations around prisoners of war, and given how much they have broken international law so far in this invasion, that is a very fraught question indeed. Speaking of trials, the Russian soldier who pleaded guilty to killing a civilian is asking the widow for forgiveness. (She said she wants a life sentence, unless he’s part of a prisoner swap for the Ukrainians captured from Mariupol).

Closer to home, it has been decided that Jason Kenney will stay on as premier and party leader on a caretaker-ish basis, until the party choses a new leader (which, apparently, he has not ruled out running in again, either out of arrogance or self-delusion). Either way, he’s not going away anytime soon, and despite his insistence that this is about “uniting” the party, I am left with the recollection of what a bitter Thomas Mulcair did to the NDP once he was pushed out, but stayed on as a caretaker leader while their leadership process took an interminable length of time.

This has nevertheless had some conservatives, federally and provincially, doing a bit of soul-searching as to what it means that Kenney got things wrong. While my own thoughts about this will be in my weekend column, Ontario conservatives are insisting that it’s because Kenney embraced his right flank while Doug Ford kicked his out and is still surviving. (Ford also didn’t need his to the same extent Kenney does). Some federal Conservatives are warning against panicking, while others are warning against polarised politics, and still others see a movement afoot in the party that caters to siege mentality, fuelled by American right-wing media, that causes them to see everything in oppositional terms.

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Roundup: Exit Kenney

It is now around day eighty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and more than 260 fighters have left the Mariupol steel plant, into Russian custody, where their release will be negotiated. But there will be demands for them to stand trial, just as Russian soldiers are currently—one of them pleading guilty to killing civilians yesterday.

Closer to home, Alberta premier Jason Kenney announced that he will step down after receiving only 51.4% support in the UCP’s leadership review. It’s quite something, and he’s also the sixth premier in the last decade because it has become such a poisoned chalice, so good luck to his potential successors. I’ll write more about this in the next day or two, but it’s certainly a sign of how things are going in the province.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1527088935725412354

As for the royal tour, day two was spent in Ottawa, starting with a ceremony to lay a wreath at the National War Memorial, a service at a Ukrainian church, a visit to the Byward Market, the RCMP Musical Ride, a round table discussion on climate finance, and finally a reception at Rideau Hall. There were good crowds for all of them, and it’s a very different reception than the attention of certain other tours this year. At the reception, AFN national chief RoseAnne Archibald raised the notion of an apology from the Queen (which is a bad idea), for what it’s worth. Meanwhile, here is an in-depth look at the first day of the royal tour and its broader context after William and Catherine’s Caribbean royal tour.

https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1526989787332214784

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Roundup: Royal tour, day one

It is now approximately day eighty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we have some confirmation now that the fighting in Mariupol is at an end. Both sides are claiming victory—Russia claiming it is a mass surrender, Ukraine stating that the garrison achieved their objectives, and in particular, they tied up Russian forces that couldn’t be deployed elsewhere, as those forces have been pushed back, as far as the border in some cases. There is now a negotiated withdrawal taking place, and prisoner swaps may be in the works, so we’ll see how this plays out.

Elsewhere, it sounds like today is the day that Sweden and Finland both make their applications to NATO, and while Turkey is still being sour about it, but we’ll see what particular concessions they try to extract before their membership is accepted.

Closer to home, it was the first day of Charles and Camilla’s royal tour, starting in Newfoundland and Labrador. They visited the provincial legislature, the lieutenant governor’s residence, and the village of Quidi Vidi, as well as met with residential school survivors. Prince Charles did talk about the need for reconciliation in his speech, and that is going to be one of the themes of the tour.

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Roundup: Manning says to ride that tiger

It is now approximately day seventy-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and United Nations efforts to evacuate civilians from under the steel plant in Mariupol continue apace. Tales from the survivors who have been rescued and have made it to safety are pretty harrowing about life in the tunnels under the plant. Ukrainian forces are preparing a counteroffensive to push Russian forces away from Kharkiv and Izyum in the Donbas region. Amnesty International has been collecting evidence of Russian war crimes around the Kyiv region, including in Bucha. Meanwhile, it sounds like the Canadian “Norman Brigade” of fighters in Ukraine is being poorly led and under-equipped, and gosh, who could have seen this happening?

Closer to home, the conference formerly known as the Manning Conference is happening this weekend, and we’ve already seen the nastiness of the unofficial leadership debate that took place, and now we have Preston Manning himself insisting that their party can capture the “energy” and “enthusiasm” of the extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievance tourists who made up the occupation in Ottawa, and that they can be “properly managed.”

No. Just no.

Manning has long held that you can ride the tiger of a populist mob and gain from it. Never mind that absolutely everyone who has tried has wound up being mauled by it, but golly, Manning still insists that you can do it. Gods know that Jason Kenney is certainly trying in Alberta, and has been trying to do what Manning has famously suggested about “tapping a relief well” and trying to direct that anger toward something that they can try and be productive with, but that’s not really working either, and all of those face-eating leopards that Kenney invited into the house, because he thought he could turn them on his perceived enemies, have realized that his face is right there and they want to eat it. You don’t try and work the mob up because you think you can use it to your advantage, and Manning keeps making this mistake over again, and encouraging his followers to do the same. What it’s doing is encouraging more extremism instead, and you can be damn sure that there will be repercussions for that.

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