Roundup: GST “holiday” bill passes

The federal government got their wish, with the cooperation of the NDP, to get their GST “holiday” bill through the House of Commons thanks to a programming motion that paused the ongoing privilege filibuster for the sitting day. In spite of the Bloc and Conservatives slow-walking it with dilatory amendments, it did pass late at night, with the terms of the motion being that once it passed second reading vote, it would automatically be deemed to have been referred to committee of the whole and passed, and then passed at third reading. (The Senate won’t see it until Tuesday at the earliest). It’s the first opportunity the Commons has had to do real work in more than six weeks, for what it’s worth. The Liberals and NDP, however, think they’ve found a big gotcha, that by forcing the Conservatives to vote against this legitimately terrible policy will be the key to reversing their fortunes in the polls, and their attempts remain cringe-worthy.

Pierre Poilievre took to the microphones to denounce it as “inflationary,” which is actually nonsense because we’re no longer in an overheated economy. Nevertheless, he relies on the simplistic notion that any government spending or deficits are inflationary (and claims that Chrystia Freeland herself this, which isn’t really what she said—not that the truth has ever mattered to Poilievre). Then again, his entire understanding of economics comes from crypto bros on YouTube, so probably best not to take him seriously. It’s still a terrible policy, however, so their opposition to it somewhat accidentally puts them on the right side of the issue, even if the reasons are entirely false and misleading (but broken clocks being right twice a day, and all of that).

As for the implementation of this terrible policy, it just looks even worse as the details emerge. What counts and what doesn’t for the rebate are all over the map, and it’s so chaotic that businesses are, quite rightly, frustrated at just how much work it’s going to be to implement for those two months. None of this should have happened, and the Liberals should have come up with a better measure than this (and rubbed the NDP’s faces in their own ill-conceived GST cut plan), but here we are, and it just keeps getting worse by the day. Well done, guys. Slow clap.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia fired another nearly 200 missiles and drones, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to leave more than a million people without power. Fragments from downed drones hit two buildings in Kyiv, injuring one person.

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Roundup: The virtual meeting with the premiers over Trump

Prime minister Justin Trudeau had his virtual meeting with the premiers yesterday evening, and it has been a really interesting divergence in reactions. Jagmeet Singh is panicking and demanding performative forcefulness, while Pierre Poilievre is trying to leverage the moment for his own political ends, claiming that the solution is to do everything he says (conveniently!). Premiers have been all over the map, going from caution to outright boot-licking (looking at you, Danielle Smith), and this was one of the messages that emerged from that meeting. I also find it particularly crass the number of premiers who set up American flags for their backdrops before their media availabilities before and after the meeting. Seriously, guys?

Chrystia Freeland met with reporters and spoke about the need for a united front and not to be seen to be squabbling with one another, but premiers with their own agendas haven’t really seemed to warm to that necessity, because they’d rather score points against the current government with boneheaded accusations that they were “blindsided” by the threats, and that they don’t have a plan. (They’ve had a plan for over a year, guys. You might want to actually pay attention). And after the meeting, most of the premiers made their own individual points about how they want so many more resources poured into their province (such as more RCMP members that don’t exist because they can’t recruit and train them fast enough, or retain them in the toxic culture of the Force), but Smith remains particularly stubborn in trying to leverage this into foregoing the emissions cap and trying to say that Trudeau shouldn’t be leading the effort to defend Canada (again, to her benefit).

Meanwhile, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, took a much more aggressive stance with threatened retaliation (which Trudeau has thus far not threatened, preferring a “methodical” approach). Sheinbaum had a call with Trump and basically pledged to keep doing what they were already doing, and Trump declared victory, so maybe Canada will do the same? Trudeau has talked about strengthening border measures, which has been an ongoing process, particularly since the amendment of the Safe Third Country Agreement, so maybe that too will be enough to get Trump to declare victory? I guess we shall see, but in the meantime, we’ll see how many premiers can keep their cool.

Ukraine Dispatch

Explosions were heard in Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, Kharkiv, Rivne and Lutsk amid reports of a cruise missile attack last night. Three were wounded in a drone attack on Kyiv the night before. Russian forces claim to have taken the settlement of Nova Illinka in Donetsk region. Germany’s intelligence chief says that Russian sabotage in NATO countries could trigger Article 5.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1861772687229501452

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Roundup: Refusing to defend his own bill

Because this parliament has descended to the absolute depths of performative uselessness, Conservative MP Arnold Viersen is refusing to testify to his own private member’s bill, and his Conservative colleagues on the justice committee are filibustering to keep the clock running out on the bill rather than extend the time to hear from witnesses, in the hopes of reporting back without amendments. And why is Viersen avoiding testifying? Because the Liberal and NDP members are likely to ask him about his pro-life views and activities—for clips for their own socials.

The bill, which would mandate certification of age and consent for those who appear in porn, got all-party support before going to committee, but I suspect that this bill is completely unenforceable (as we are net importers of porn), and is likely to suffer from some of the same problems from the other age verification bill, which is unworkable and an absolute privacy nightmare. And it would be great if the committee could actually hear from experts who could say so, but they are unlikely to at this stage. (Conservative filibusters also limited witness testimony on the age verification bill, which meant they could not hear from experts who would tell them it’s unworkable and a privacy nightmare).

Nevertheless, I think that because of these kinds of shenanigans, if an MP refuses to testify about their own bill, the committee should vote it down, and it should be killed as a consequence for wasting everyone’s time. I’d even be happy putting that in the Standing Orders. We also need to change it so that if a PMB needs a royal recommendation, it doesn’t even get debated rather than the current practice of letting it go as far as the final vote, because again, that wastes everyone’s time, and time is a precious commodity in Parliament, and plenty of MPs could have used that time for their own PMBs who won’t get the change.

Speaking of committees, the Conservatives want an “immediate” recall of the public safety committee, rather than waiting for its regularly-scheduled meeting next week, to discuss the arrests of two teens who planned to bomb a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill. But in spite of the seriousness of the topic, we all know what this is really about—getting clips for their social media of them talking about how “divisive” Trudeau is, and that he personally caused this kind of radicalisation. It’s as predictable as it is stupid, but this is where our Parliament is right now.

This is a serious issue, but recalling the committee “immediately” is about nothing more than gathering clips for social media, and probably ones that try to blame Justin Trudeau’s “divisiveness” for this. #cdnpoli

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-13T19:11:02.519Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces shot down two cruise missiles, two ballistic missiles and thirty-seven drones headed for Kyiv, where it looks like renewed attacks are being made on power systems ahead of winter. Ukraine’s General Staff also says that they repelled four attacks on the city of Kupiansk in the northeast. Here’s a look at Ukrainians trying to support those on the front lines while they collectively wait to see what Trump 2.0 brings.

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Roundup: The capacity to spend

One of the constant refrains since the Trump election is that Canada needs to get serious about increasing out defence spending faster, or he’ll be mean to us in NATO, or something like that. While I would note that he’ll be mean to us regardless because that’s who he is, and that he’s never understood how NATO actually works, so whether or not our spending is above 2 percent of GDP or not is almost a moot question. But the biggest consideration is actually whether we actually have the capacity to spend more.

The thing is, defence spending has gone up significantly, but the military lapses some of that spending on a yearly basis because they just can’t get that spending out of the door, for various reasons, including the fact that they simply don’t have the personnel to do everything that needs to be done, and you can’t just hire someone off the street in most of these cases—military personnel is just that, and they take time to train and rise up through the ranks appropriately. Add in the recruitment and retention crisis (thanks to sexual misconduct and abuse of power in the General Officer and Flag Officer ranks), and it makes it even harder.

Nevertheless, here’s Philippe Lagassé with some thoughts on building the capacity to spend more.

Ukraine Dispatch

It appears that Russia has fired cruise missiles against Kyiv for the first time in two months, not just drones. The US confirms that North Korean troops are now fighting alongside Russian forces.

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Roundup: Remembrance Day 2024

In case anyone was wondering, there was a prayer offered by the rabbi who spoke at the National Remembrance Day ceremony, and that the Conservatives have been shamelessly peddling the lie that prayer has been banned.

Here is a look at ceremonies around the country, and photos from the national ceremony in Ottawa. Veterans who were victims of the LGBT purge from the military laid a wreath at the War Memorial this year.

I popped into Twitter to see that yet again, the royal family’s feed is using an image of the King and Queen taken on Remembrance Day in Ottawa during their 2009 tour. Their poppies are Canadian, Queen Camilla is wearing the Maple Leaf brooch, and King Charles is wearing a Canadian uniform

Patricia Treble (@patriciatreble.bsky.social) 2024-11-09T21:26:39.849Z

This year’s Ottawa Citizen “We Are the Dead” feature, the final before the programme shuts down, profiles Arthur Reid, whose plane never made it back from a mission delivering an agent and supplies to the French resistance.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian glide bombs, drones and missiles all struck southern and eastern Ukraine on Monday, killing six and injuring at least 30 others. It also appears that an attack on the central Dnipropetrovsk region killed three and injured at least 19. Ukrainian forces are currently hard-pressed fighting not only 50,000 troops in the Kursk region of Russia, but the escalating fighting along the front lines in the east and south of the country.

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Roundup: Reheating old rage-bait

If the rage-bait works, then why not try again? This is apparently the thinking of the Conservatives, who are once again falsely claiming that the federal government has “banned prayer” by military chaplains at Remembrance Day ceremonies, after claiming this last year and it’s no more true now than it was then. Nevertheless, this is exactly the sort of thing that gets their base all hot and bothered, and who will open their wallets over it.

There has been a policy decision made by the Chaplain General, independent of government, that encourages more inclusive language by chaplains in order to respect the greater diversity within the Forces, but again, not a prayer ban, and not ordered by the government. But for Andrew Scheer to claim that it’s the government that’s lying about it and not him, serial liar who lies about everything under the sun, and to then try and clap back at Marc Miller was…something. I can’t even.

Ukraine Dispatch

Overnight attacks by Russian drones killed one civilian and injured more than thirty in Odesa, with other attacks on the Kyiv region. Military bloggers say that Russian forces are closing in on Kurakhove and Pokrovsk in the east. Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery in Saratov in Russia, but damage was said to be insignificant.

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Roundup: Emissions cap unveiled

At long last, the federal government unveiled their long-awaited oil and gas emissions cap draft regulations, mandating that they reduce emissions by 35 percent by 2032, with the expectation that much of these reductions are going to come in the form of reducing methane emissions—much of which is already underway—and that production is still expected to rise by 16 percent over those eight years. (Five things to know about the proposal here). For an industry that insists that it’s going to be “Net Zero” by 2050, this would seem like an achievable milestone to get there along the way, but apparently not.

Danielle Smith had a meltdown and started threatening legal action, but can’t exactly articulate on what basis that would be. Certain newspaper columnists posited that she could somehow invoke the Notwithstanding Clause, which doesn’t apply to this sort of situation in any way, shape or form (and should be disqualifying for someone writing in a newspaper with a six-figure salary).

Industry insists this is going to kill them, but they’ve been promising reductions for decades and have taken plenty of government money to help them fulfil those promises that they are now insisting are impossible. So…at what point do we start calling them on their own bullshit? If their plan is to hope that there will be magical technology by 2050 that will painlessly reduce their emission for them, well, that’s their problem. They made these promises, and it’s time they show how they’re going to live up to them.

Ukraine Dispatch

There was another Russian air attack made against Kyiv overnight, but it’s too early to tell how much damage was caused. South Korea’s defence ministry now estimates more than 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, but the Pentagon cannot confirm if they are currently fighting in the Kursk region.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1853389611604615191

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QP: Low-energy economic bafflegab

On a rainy Monday, the prime minister was in town but not at QP, while his deputy was in his stead. Some of the other leaders were present today, but not Pierre Poilievre, unusually. That left Andrew Scheer to lead off to read some utter nonsense about “economic vandalism” and a “per capita” recession, and demanded a cancellation of “tax hikes.” Patty Hajdu got up to first speak to the passing of Senator Murray Sinclair. Scheer said they joined in sending condolences, before returning to his claims of economic vandalism and railed about the proposed emissions cap, and demanded it be scrapped. Jonathan Wilkinson said that they are moving to address climate change, and that low-carbon sources will be more valuable. Scheer read some statistics without context to claim the government was creating jobs in the U.S., to which Steven Guilbeault responded that Scheer should actually read the regulations, and not that production was still projected to increase. Luc Berthold took over in French to read the same non-sequitur economic stats, and Chrystia Freeland shot back with countering statistics about how much better the situation in Canada was compared to the U.S. Berthold insisted that the wealth gap is growing between countries, and Freeland quoted an American economist who suggested companies leave New York for Toronto.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he railed that the Senate needed to pass the Supply Management bill, lest there be economic doom. Lawrence MacAulay reminded him that he as been a farmer under the system his entier career, and that the government supports it. Therrien railed further about the Senators holding up the bill, two which Marie-Claude Bibeau reminded him that Senator are independent and that only a Liberal government would protect it.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP to point to doctors in Quebec offering private options, and demanded the government do something. Mark Holland recited the paean about public healthcare and suggested that they work together to pressure provinces. Singh repeated the same in French, and got much the same paean en français.

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Roundup: A Pollyanna about Tuesday’s outcome

I have not said much about the American election because not my circus, not my monkeys, and I really can’t get worked up about a contest I have no say in, however, comments made by the US ambassador to Canada this weekend have utterly boggled my mind. “I firmly believe that regardless of the outcome of the election, the United States is going to remain the most durable democracy in the world,” David Cohen said, and went on about how democracy will “easily” survive whatever the outcome of that election.

No. America has been teetering on the brink of autocracy for a while now, and while I get that his job is to be blandly reassuring as the ambassador, this just smacks of being a giant Pollyanna. And for Canada, where so much of what happens in the US leaks over the border and affects our politics here, those autocratic impulses are not far behind either. We already have provincial governments using tactics lifted directly from the authoritarian playbook, as is Pierre Poilievre, and he’s not shy about it either. And if America stops defending other democracies around the world under an autocratic regime, things are going to get very difficult indeed as these democracies are under threat from Russia and other autocratic actors who want to break them in order to show their own populations that democracy doesn’t work, so better to suck it up and live with the corruption of their autocratic states. And then there is Trump’s vision of NATO as a protection racket, that he fully intends to upend, and already Viktor Orbán is salivating at the thought of a Trump victory handing Ukraine to Russia, destroying a democracy the way he has been doing in Hungary.

There will be consequences, and I don’t think it helps anyone for Cohen to shrug it off like that.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb hit a supermarket in Kharkiv, injuring at least five. Ukrainian forces destroyed 66 out of 92 Russian drones sent into the country overnight Saturday, and fortunately, no casualties were reported. Russians have also taken control of the village of Vyshneve in the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian forces hold back one of the most powerful offensives since the start of the invasion.

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QP: Proud of their new housing policy

The PM was ostensibly in town but not present for Question Period, though his deputy was in his stead. All of the other leaders were absent, including Pierre Poilievre, even though he had just launched another policy position on housing. That left Andrew Scheer to lead off, and he raised the plan from said press conference on cutting GST on new house under $1 million, and asked the government to adopt it. Sean Fraser said that it was great that they took inspiration from the policy to remove the GST on purpose-built rentals, but the Conservative plan to pay for this policy, buy cutting other programmes including to existing low-income housing, was irresponsible. Scheer insisted that the current plan was only paying for bureaucracy and photo ops, and demanded again the policy be adopted. Fraser scoffed that their plan was to do less for housing and spend money on a snitch-line for people who don’t like their neighbours’ housing plans. Scheer repeated his “bureaucracy and photo ops” talking points, and claimed housing starts were down. Fraser retorted that housing starts were in fact up, and tens of thousands over when the Conservatives were last in charge, before reiterating that the Conservative plan is to cut housing supports. Luc Berthold took over in French to demand the government match their pledge to cut GST, and this time, Chrystia Freeland responded that at Poilievre’s rare press conference, he accidentally told the truth and said that they would cut two programmes to pay for this, and listed what those might be. Berthold tried again, decrying how long it took people to afford a home, and this time, Soraya Martinez Ferrada gave her own version of the Conservatives will only cut, and that the programmes the would cut included social housing in Quebec.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and worried about an influx of migrants from the U.S. if Trump wins and asked if the government had a plan. Marc Miller repsonded with a single “oui.” Therrien gave another soliloquy that asked the very same thing. Miller repeated that they do have a plan, and that they have always managed the border with the U.S.

Jenny Kwan rose for the NDP, demanded federal action on abortion access, as though the federal government controlled it. Mark Holland got up and gave a rant about the conservatives and that no man should control a woman’s reproductive freedom. Rachel Blaney gave another round of the same, and Patty Hajdu gave her own rant about not standing for attacks on reproductive rights.

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