Roundup: Chow chooses blackmail

Toronto mayor Olivia Chow woke up and chose violence, as the kids say, when it comes to her budget proposals for Toronto. While the 10.5 percent property tax increase is long-overdue for a city whose property taxes remain well below the national average after years of austerity governments who have allowed the city to crumble so they can keep from increasing said property taxes (and this is not unique to Toronto either), she is also calling for an additional measure—federal blackmail. The proposal is called a “federal impacts levy,” or an additional six percent increase ostensibly to cover the costs of providing services for asylum seekers, and is basically holding the federal government at knifepoint, saying pay up or all your safe seats in this city are going to be in jeopardy.

The asylum seeker issue is rife with other levels of government falsely claiming that this is solely a federal responsibility, so they should foot the whole cost. It’s not actually true—the federal government is responsible for refugees once their claims have been approved, but before that point, they generally fall under the social services provided by provinces and municipalities, and the federal government will reimburse a portion of those costs. Of course, premiers like to wash their hands of this because of course they do (and there is a constant rhetorical battle happening in Question Period where the Bloc keep demanding that the federal government owes Quebec some $450 million for the provision of services, again falsely claiming sole federal responsibility), which leaves cities often bearing the burden, and Toronto and Montreal most especially as they get the lion’s share of asylum claimants. There remain questions around Toronto, if they have followed the proper channels to request federal funds for this (I believe there is a need for a certain provincial action to accompany it which may not have been undertaken), but again, they have been given millions of dollars this year for assistance with this.

My bigger concern is the Pandora’s Box that this kind of federal blackmail opens up. While some pundits will declare it to be genius, and on a strategic level, it is a clever way to back the federal government into a corner, but at the same time, this invites other cities or provinces to start adopting this kind of tactic, and even more to the point, it once again leaves the province—whose constitutional responsibility the city is—off the hook for their own underfunding and downloading of services to try and make their own bottom lines look good. We already have provinces who think they can just declare themselves exempt from federal laws, and others who are openly breaking those laws (or at least threatening to under the cover of legal fictions), while the pundit class says it’s the prime minister’s fault, that he made them break the law and behave this way. Chow is now pushing this envelope even further, and I worry about the long-term consequences for this country so that she can solve her short-term problem of being an adult around her city’s fiscal crisis.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Two Russian missiles struck a hotel in Kharkiv, injuring eleven people, many of them journalists. Ukrainian forces have been shifting toward building fortifications and a more defensive posture in recent months. Speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have shown that Russia can be stopped, but that Ukraine still needs more air defence systems and ammunition. Zelenskyy added that there are “clear signs” of a slowdown in Russia’s defence industry as he called on allied nations to tighten sanctions.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1745019147065721141

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1745348642100109636

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Roundup: Opening the Canadian Drug Agency

There was an announcement yesterday that went under the radar of what appears to be every major news organization, which is that the Canadian Drug Agency is now fully operational. This has been in the works for a couple of years now, first as in a transitional form while the government consulted with the provinces and territories on what shape this would take, and it has now emerged from transition status into a full office.

Why is this important? Because this is the kind of actual policy work that is going to contribute to future national pharmacare in this country, not the ridiculous legislation that the NDP are insisting upon, under the mistaken belief that this is something that provinces can join one-by-one like with healthcare. It’s not—if national pharmacare is to work, it needs to be all or nothing, because it won’t be economically feasible otherwise. That means you need the premiers at the table from the start, and they all need to negotiate the national formulary together, not just let Ottawa decide and join up if they feel like it.

So, while Jagmeet Singh and Don Davies put on this dog and pony show about the pharmaracare legislation that hasn’t happened yet, and say boneheaded things like “The Liberals are on the side of Big Pharma,” the government has been putting in the actual work, and not the performative part, for what it’s worth.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A shortage of artillery shells is forcing Ukraine to scale back some operations, while the Russians are changing their tactics in their bid to overtake Avdiivka. Ukraine’s military chief is now saying that the war isn’t at a stalemate as he previously asserted (to which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy contradicted him). Said military chief found bugs in one of his offices, and hints that more devices have been found. He has also been critical of Zelenskyy’s decision to fire all regional military draft officers in a corruption crackdown.

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Roundup: Scheer throws stones at Fergus from his glass house

The saga around Speaker Fergus’ fate is starting to become farcical, as Andrew Scheer brought up more “proof” that Fergus has been engaged in partisan activities, because he went to a party event…for a Quebec Liberal MNA, which, again, is not the same party or the same league. (Honestly, there are a bunch of former Quebec Liberal MNAs currently sitting in the Conservative caucus, much like there are a bunch of former BC Liberal MLAs in the Conservative caucus.). Scheer’s urge to keep finding this “proof” and tattling is becoming ridiculous.

But then, a twist—CBC found out that Andrew Scheer was fined by the House of Commons for filming a partisan video in support of a by-election nomination candidate in his Hill office, which isn’t allowed, and then had that successful candidate pay for the fine out of his campaign expenses, which may run afoul of Elections Canada rules (but those returns haven’t been audited yet because the by-election is too recent). The NDP have also been finding instances of where Scheer attended party fundraisers when he was the Speaker, but Pierre Poilievre’s spokesperson insists this was totally different, while also falsely saying that the provincial party event was a “fellow Liberal’s fundraiser.” But the fact that Scheer is not only a liar but a hypocrite (to say nothing of being a braying doofus) is no surprise to absolutely anyone.

And because the stupid twists don’t stop, we also learned that Fergus had a conversation with former MP Glen Pearson, who went on to write an op-ed in Fergus’ defence shortly after he took the role (before the drama happened) about the decorum in the Chamber. I’m starting to get very tired of this particular back-and-forth, and hope this doesn’t carry into the New Year.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians launched 42 drones and six missiles at southern Ukraine overnight Wednesday, which killed one person. Ukraine and Molodova got the green-light to start fast-tracking their bid to join the European Union, but Hungary remains an obstacle as they held up new aid funding for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1735378672029167827

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Roundup: Fergus at the NDP’s mercy

It looks like Speaker Greg Fergus may last another day, as the word from the NDP is that they’re going to demand a fine and another apology to the House of Commons for his lapse in judgment over that video he recorded, though I have to wonder what they think a fine is going to accomplish. That report from the Procedure and House Affairs Committee will be tabled in the Commons by Thursday, so we’ll see if there’s any kind of vote or concurrence debate at that point. And there may yet be, as Andrew Scheer is promising that he’s going to move a vote of non-confidence in the Speaker, possibly in the hopes that he can shake enough NDP MPs loose to oust Fergus. As for the Bloc, Yves-François Blanchet said that perhaps it’s time for a woman in the position, as though Alexandra Mendès hasn’t been there as Assistant Deputy Speaker the whole time, and has twice now run for the position and not gotten enough votes for it.

On the subject of the Speaker, Carleton University’s Philippe Lagassé made some comments to the Hill Times about the fact that we do treat the neutrality of the Speaker in Canada as much more of an illusion than Westminster does. He also suggests we start adopting more Westminster practices like the Speaker running for re-election as an independent, and that past Speakers be appointed to the Lords/Senate where they can continue to serve in less partisan roles, rather than having them rejoin the party ranks (and absolutely not have them run for party leader, Andrew Scheer).

Ukraine Dispatch:

An overnight missile attack on Kyiv has resulted in 45 injuries, while nearly 600 shells and rockets rained down on the southern part of the country amidst a major cyberattack on the country’s largest telecom provider. A US intelligence report estimates that Russia has suffered 315,000 casualties, which is about 90 percent of the forces it began the conflict with. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington DC doesn’t appear to have swayed too many Republicans, while he continued to insist that asking to give Russia land concessions was insane because it meant abandoning families and children to terrorists.

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Roundup: Pre-approved housing plans?

The federal government is planning to revive an old post-war CMHC programme to create a list of pre-approved housing designs as a way of speeding up the construction of new housing. The aim is to have these available for builders by the end of 2024, with various sizes and options available, in the hopes that it makes zoning and permitting decisions run smoother and faster.

One of the things this shows is that the government is listening to experts, who have been calling for this as a way for the federal government to use what levers they have to demonstrate leadership, and that’s a pretty good start. One would also have to wonder if this couldn’t also spur a movement to pre-manufacture components of these designs in order to make construction go even faster, particularly if there is an element of modularity to these designs. There does also need to be a recognition that these shouldn’t be limited to single-family dwellings, but to multi-family units including four-plexes, now that the rules around those are being relaxed in many municipalities as part of the Housing Accelerator Fund conditions, and rules around use of these designs could be conditions for future funds.

Meanwhile, check out this thread from Mike Moffatt on this particular policy move (which he was an early champion of), and we’ll see what elements the government announces as part of it later today.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1734354682837918043

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia attacked Kyiv with eight ballistic missiles before dawn on Monday, which were all shot down but debris did injury people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be in Washington today to try and convince Republicans to vote for the aid package as time runs out for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1734231565301895538

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Roundup: Doubling down on the lies about the Ukraine trade deal

As the Conservatives flail about their voting against the Ukraine trade agreement, they are throwing out a number of excuses in order to double down on a stupid position that is backed by the lie that the agreement imposes a carbon price on Ukraine. It doesn’t, they’ve had a carbon price since 2011, but that doesn’t seem to matter. They insist that nothing they’re doing jeopardises the agreement, which is true—it’s already signed, and every other party is voting for this enabling legislation, but what the Conservatives seem to be forgetting is that all of this performance they’re doing for their domestic audience is being noticed aboard, and in particular by the Ukrainian government, and it’s not leaving a good impression.

To that end, they kept moving amendments at committee to include language about weapons sales, which is stupid because nothing precludes them currently, but that kept being out of order—again, because the deal is already signed. This is enabling legislation. And they kept trying to either remove the carbon price references or delay the bill until they could force the government to remove it, but they lost that gambit as well. But again, they’re sending signals to the people paying attention that they are deeply unserious and are going to be untrustworthy allies, and that’s going to do more damage in the long run, all for the sake of trying to score some cheap domestic points right now.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll from the severe  snow storm in southern Ukraine has reached ten, with more injured as a result of accidents and power loss. During this, Russians struck a residential building and a coal mine in Nikopol, killing four and injuring ten others. The wife of Ukraine’s head of military intelligence is being treated for heavy metals poisoning, but no one will say if he was the intended target. Some in Ukraine are calling for defined ends to deployments, which are currently open-ended (as though the country were not in an existential war for its survival).

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Roundup: Threatening to engage in socialism to spite Trudeau

Danielle Smith raised her magic wand and uttered an incantation and called it the “Sovereignty Act,” and said that she was going to protect the province from the Clean Electricity Regulations, only it absolutely won’t do that. For one, the final regulations haven’t even been published, and for another, she can’t compel the private electricity generators to ignore federal law. In other words, she admitted that this is entirely for symbolic effect.

https://twitter.com/molszyns/status/1729274649509577072

But wait—it gets better. She also mused about creating a new Crown corporation to take over some of these private companies so that she could order said Crown corporation to ignore federal law like Saskatchewan is trying to do with their natural gas Crown corporation (which, again, is illegal and its directors will be legally exposed). So, you have someone who considers herself some kind of staunch, libertarian conservative who is going to engage in actual socialism (as in fully nationalizing the means of production) in order to stick it to Justin Trudeau. It boggles the mind.

Steven Guilbeault, incidentally, is undeterred and will move ahead with the regulations, because he knows that her incantation is meaningless.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A major snowstorm in southern Ukraine has killed five (and three more in neighbouring Moldova), as well as knocking out power grids.

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Roundup: Graphing some drivers of inflation

Just how much are the price of raw materials contributing to headline inflation? Well, the raw materials price index was released yesterday, and economist Stephen Gordon was curious, so he made some graphs.

Things I noticed: While gasoline is a big driver of headline inflation, the prices of wheat and beef are worth taking a look at because of the price spikes. What caused those spikes? Drought. Drought killed 40 percent of the wheat crop in 2021, and also meant a shortage of feed crop for livestock, which meant that ranchers had to cull herds to be able to afford to feed the remaining animals (because importing feed is expensive). This year we also saw more drought, which is having the same effect (and that drought has been persistent in southern Saskatchewan, which has to be in danger of turning into a dustbowl soon). And yes, there is a direct correlation to these more frequent droughts with climate change.

Also worth pointing out is the price of chicken also spiking, which was because of avian flu that meant culling flocks to prevent transmission. Again, that drives up prices. This is just more data to show that it’s not the carbon price driving up food prices—it’s climate change and its knock-on effects.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s largest private energy company says that they need more missile defences to protect power plants in advance of more Russian attacks over the winter. Ukrainian forces have confirmed that they have established several beachheads on the eastern banks of the Dnipro river, which is an important step in the counter-offensive. In Kharkiv region, the government is now building fortified underground schools because of the constant attacks. A Yale study says that more than 2400 Ukrainian children from four occupied regions have been taken to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725490287160529137

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Roundup: Saskatchewan wants to play constitutional chicken

The government of Saskatchewan tabled their bill to “protect” SaskEnergy from repercussions if they go ahead with their threat to not collect or remit the federal carbon price on natural gas, and well, it is hilariously ineffective. Why? Because the federal legislation makes it very clear who is responsible for the collection and remittance of those funds, and this bill is trying to use provincial legislation to change a federal definition. You can’t do that. Provinces do not have that ability. This is just setting up SaskEnergy and its directors to face these penalties, because the provincial government can’t say that they’ll accept the responsibility instead. Again, it doesn’t work that way.

The minister, Dustin Duncan, then went on Power & Politics and was pressed on this issue, and he flailed for a bit before trying to make this a game of chicken—they’re going to essentially dare the federal government to follow federal law, and hold the persons responsible for collecting and remitting those funds to account. Because this is the level of maturity we’re dealing with. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the CEO and the board of SaskEnergy all walked off the job in protest of being put in this kind of legal jeopardy because Scott Moe is a child.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll from the Russian strike on Selydove in eastern Ukraine doubled as more bodies were found in the rubble. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine has seized the initiative in the Black Sea thanks to their fleet of naval drones which has pushed back the Russians toward the eastern coasts. New UK foreign minister David Cameron visited Ukraine as his first trip on the job.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725054494969373168

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Roundup: Stop ignoring the premiers’ role in pharmacare

Over the weekend, the Star ran a brief interview with Dr. Eric Hoskins, former Ontario health minister and the person that Justin Trudeau initially tasked with writing a report on getting to pharmacare, about the current situation between the government and the NDP over getting to just that. Hoskins says he’s trying to have high-level engagements with both parties, because this could be the last opportunity to get this to work in a long time, but some of that means getting the NDP to back down on their arbitrary timelines (which is more than reasonable considering how much their stupid timeline demands has meant a poor rollout of dental care, because proper implementation can take time).

This having been said, I was struck by the fact that the story completely left out the role of the premiers in this, and I cannot stress this enough, because healthcare delivery is a provincial responsibility, you cannot in any way, shape or form, get to national, universal pharacare without the provinces on board. And no, this isn’t something that they can just opt-in to over time, like the NDP seem to think—they need to be in on it from the ground floor, so that they can shape the direction of the Canada Drug Agency, and negotiate a national formulary rather than just the federal government pulling it out of their asses and, again, expecting the provinces to sign onto it (again, like the NDP seem to think). Hoskin’s whole report premised on the provinces being active participants in the process, because this affects them fundamentally. And it’s the provinces who have been the biggest hold-up for moving forward with this—only PEI has moved ahead, and thanks to the gradual build-up they’ve implemented with the federal government, they have a low-cost co-pay system running in the province, which is a wild step-up from the virtually nothing they at the provincial government level before.

The way that media keep talking about pharmacare is that this is something the federal government will do on high, and will somehow pay for entirely themselves, which again, is not how this would work. The PBO’s report cites a figure that the federal and provincial governments together would be paying (using whatever a methodology that may or may not survive reality), but doesn’t have any breakdown about what the cost-share would be, because of course that would need to be negotiated. It would be great if the national conversation, particularly that is happening in media, could actually include the crucial role of the provinces, but we all know that legacy media is allergic to the issues around jurisdiction, and it means a much worse discourse as a result.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces intensified their push toward Avdiivka in the east, and Kherson in the south, while six people were killed in a Russian missile strike on a postal distribution centre in Kharkiv. Russian forces claim that they foiled several attempts by Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro river near Kherson over the past day. Meanwhile, here is a look at Ukrainians preparing for another winter of attacks on the electricity grid, as they prepare firewood and candles.

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