Roundup: Threats only matter when it’s your family

The chatter yesterday morning was that the Diagolon crew talked on their online show about raping Pierre Poilievre’s wife just to prove that they could, and lo, Poilievre got angry, referred this to the RCMP, and called the Diagolon crew dirt bags and insisted he had never heard of this group before, even though he very clearly had, and had been playing footsie with them like he has with a bunch of other far-right extremists. And yes, it’s horrifying that they would make these kinds of comments—which they insist were just “a joke” and that they meant no harm (far-right extremists are always “just joking” until they’re not), but Poilievre only seemed to care about rape threats when they were directed as his family, and not, say, the female journalists who reported on his connections with Diagolon, for whom Poilievre decried as a “smear” and sent his flying monkeys after them, who were again subjected to all manner of graphic rape and death threats, which he has never denounced. You see where this is going?

https://twitter.com/TedFriendlyGuy/status/1574412812574769152

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 215:

It is apparently the last day of Russia’s sham referendum in occupied regions of Ukraine, while their forces have conducted drone airstrikes on the port of Odessa.

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Roundup: The aftermath of Fiona

In the wake of Hurricane Fiona battering the East Coast, Justin Trudeau has cancelled his trip to Japan for Shinzo Abe’s funeral, and has been convening meetings of the Incident Response Group in order to coordinate federal efforts for assistance. Provincial requests for military assistance have all been approved, and there are constant assurances that yes, the federal government will help rebuild, and there are already provisions in place for that to happen.

Meanwhile, thousands have been without power, and at least one fatality has been recorded. It is expected to be a slow recovery because of the scale of the damage (some photos here).

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 214:

While Russia’s sham referendums continue in occupied territories in Ukraine, they have resumed shelling civilian targets. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is calling Russia’s decision to mobilize reserves and conscripts as a sign of weakness, and offers safety to those who surrender. Protests are continuing in Russia against the mobilization.

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Roundup: Still nothing to say

Oh, nothing. Just a few more selected tweets as this situation continues. Don’t mind me.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1573395492259729408

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1573412911065841687

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1573414167989698565

https://twitter.com/Garossino/status/1573514485998161921

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 212:

Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine were subjected to sham “referendums” yesterday, to provide a paper cover that claims these regions want to “overwhelmingly join Russia,” which of course is not true and will not be internationally recognized, because everyone knows it’s a sham. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Ukrainians in these occupied regions to undermine these sham referendums, and to share information about those caught up in said farce. Meanwhile, a UN commission of inquiry on the invasion of Ukraine has found evidence of war crimes committed in Russian-occupied areas, which should surprise no one.

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Roundup: Kludging together dental care

Parliament resumed sitting yesterday, and the first thing the government did was tabled two bills related to their recently announced affordability measures. While the GST rebate is a fairly straight-forward mechanism that mostly just needs a royal recommendation to ensure that funds are available for it, they also tabled their bill on dental care, or rather the funds to be used for dental care in lieu of a full-on programme because it’s going to take a while to figure out how best to do it. And thus far, it looks like the kludge is to use the CRA as the delivery mechanism and who would eventually follow-up to see that it was properly administered and not improperly claimed. But that’s going to be a problem. And the worst part of this is the reminder that the NDP want this to be a fully federally-administered programme, when it’s an issue within provincial jurisdiction, and there is no federal system they can realistically build off of. The CRA to transfer funds to families is a kludge, and not a great one, but the NDP have demands and an inane belief that the problem just requires enough political will. This can only end in tears.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 209:

While Ukrainian forces bolster their lines with captured Russian tanks, shelling around the Enerhodar nuclear plant has resulted in damage to the facility, as they target other power plants and dams as though that would make it easier for slaves to do the work.

On the Russian side, it looks like the regime is trying to speed ahead sham referendums to justify formally annex those territories, but nobody should be fooled. As well, the Duma is considering legislation that would crack down on soldiers who disobey orders, as well as deserters, which could be indicate a real problem for Russia when it comes to maintaining their military.

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Roundup: Gatherings in advance of the funeral

As Canadian officials were in London over the weekend in advance of the Queen’s funeral, a number of meetings took place between the prime minister and King Charles III, and the King also met with the Governors General of the Realms. Trudeau also met with the new UK prime minister, Liz Truss and other world leaders, while back at Canada House, Mary May Simon invested Stephen Harper into the Order of Canada, while former prime ministers and Governors General took some time together.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 207:

While the counter-offensive remains paused to allow supply lines to catch up and the units to recuperate, discoveries continue in cities and villages recently liberated. Beyond the mass grave found in Izyum, torture chambers have been found in Kozacha Lopan near the border. Russian forces continue to target civilian infrastructure, and have stepped up attacks since being forced from recently liberated areas. Meanwhile, Kharkiv is celebrating Pride, which is an accomplishment in a country still largely hostile to LGBTQ+ rights, as they are being invaded by a country that has been weaponising homophobia.

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1570891880178786304

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Roundup: The Convoy Party of Canada

The CBC did the work of comparing the names on the leaked GiveSendGo data around donations to the occupation of Ottawa from back in February and compared it to the publicly available donor database from the Conservative leadership campaign, and lo, there was a lot of overlap, to the tune of $460,000 from 3,100 donors to both (a likely underestimate as they ignored close names and postal codes), and most of that went to Pierre Poilievre’s campaign. A lot of these names had never donated federally before, which shows that the occupation has galvanised a political movement. Now, this was only 4.2 percent of the donors to the leadership overall, but this gives you a sense of why Poilievre has decided to give up on the political centre and focus his hopes on these fringe elements who had previously been disaffected, hoping that they will be what is able to push him over the edge in the next election.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1570804839663415296

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1570805416250187776

This was something that I discussed with Stephanie Carvin in a previous video we did, and wrote a column about—this kind of political movement is catnip to parties, and they will try and ride this tiger in order to benefit from it, either in votes or donations. But that’s the thing about riding the tiger, is that almost all of the time, you can’t actually do it, and it will turn around eat you, and that’s exactly what Poilievre has risked his entire political party to do. And rest assured, a fringe group who are not rational actors will be very hard to control, and they risk easily turning on him when they find out that he can’t do most of the things he promised them he would, or that his economic theories are based on utter nonsense, and that his entire platform is built on a foundation of sand. We watched this happen when the Republicans in the US embraced the Tea Party, and it drove them further to extremism and to Donald Trump. Justin Ling details that, and other examples, in this op-ed, and the fact that Poilievre and his camp believe they’re cleverer than all of those other parties who tried to embrace the fringe and were consumed by it. That’s probably the most chilling part, because Poilievre is certainly not cleverer, and he has a higher opinion of himself and his abilities than anyone who has watched him for any length of period would see. Jason Kenney also suffers from the same affliction, and look where it got him. We are entering into dangerous territory.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 205:

Attention in the conflict remains on the discovery of the mass graves in Izium, where more have been discovered, and many with hands tied behind their backs and showing signs of mistreatment before they were killed. Meanwhile, it has been decided that president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s wife, Olena Zelenska, will travel to London for the Queen’s funeral.

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Roundup: On the debate on societal decline narratives

I’ve been thinking a lot about Colin Horgan’s essay about Pierre Poilievre tapping into the meta-language of a society in decline, and how playing into those narratives has the potential to make things worse, particularly as the bad actors who respond to this kind of thing start becoming increasingly drastic in their actions. In response, Matt Gurney wonders that if people do believe we’re in a state of decline, and whether it’s worse that Poilievre is speaking to them on those terms, or that the governing Liberals can’t admit to the problems under their watch. I’m have a lot reservations about the notion that Poilievre is trying to somehow channel these anxieties—there is absolutely no indication that Poilievre can try and do anything positive with them when the discourse is about burning things to the ground (metaphorically at least). But what exactly are we considering to be the decline?

https://twitter.com/Lazin_Ryder/status/1570536744080252928

This tweet from Matthew Lazin-Ryder makes a very good point—that the “rise and fall” narratives are not how societies work, and that the level of pessimism in 1974 was staggering when we read about it in hindsight. I also have to wonder about what is being considered in the decline. Much of what Gurney lists in his piece are areas that are complex—most of it are things that the federal government has little control over, so a figure like Poilievre addressing it has no substance to it, and in the areas that they do, such as the armed forces, it’s hard to consider things in decline when the institution was so horribly broken beforehand, and we are at a place were we are trying to do something about it rather than pretend those problems didn’t exist. Does that make it a symptom of decline, or that we’re actually dealing with the problems? As for the problems at the provincial level, yes they are problems, but they are not new—just reaching a boiling point—and they require political action to deal with, which is caught in a cycle of federal-provincial blame-shifting, enabled by media outlets who simply both-sides the issue rather than call out the responsible parties (meaning the premiers).

My other particular sense of caution around declinist narratives is the fact that a lot of them come from a place of people who have problems with women, queer and trans people, people of colour, all being more prominent, and who are being given a voice and agency for the first time in modern history. They see this as some kind of decline because as white men, they view equality as a diminution of their own privilege, which feeds this false narrative of decline. When you see people declaring themselves “anti-woke,” you have to ask yourself whether it’s the fact that they have a problem with women and minorities being visible or having agency. Hell, in the Quebec leadership debate, there was a segment where the host was demanding that leaders say the n-word to “prove” they weren’t woke, which is appalling, but an indication that those who try to resist so-called wokeism are really trying to make racism okay again. The fact that declinists espouse these kinds of narratives makes me question their entire world view, and brings me back to the problem of those who pander to that viewpoint for the sake of scoring political points, when it can feed it and takes us to a darker place.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 204:

President Volodymr Zelenskyy says that a mass grave with more than 440 bodies has been found in the recently liberated city of Izium in the Kharkiv region, which probably shouldn’t be surprising at this point. In fact, I fear that there will be all kinds of mass graves being uncovered for years to come thanks to Russia’s genocidal campaign. Evidence has also been found of Russian “torture chambers” in cities that have been liberated, so war crimes prosecutors have a big job ahead of them.

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Roundup: The edgy reporting on the state of the monarchy

It wasn’t unexpected, but Canadian media has decided to go full-on concern trolling for the republican cause while the world mourns the passing of the Queen. There is no end to the polls about Canadians’ feelings about the “British” monarchy (oblivious to the fact that we are under the Canadian monarchy, which is separate and distinct), or stories about Indigenous people and their relationship with the Crown, but they seem to entirely lack the nuances of the treaty relationship and the failure of the Queen’s Canadian government to properly uphold those treaties, and instead putting forward a narrative that the Crown was directly responsible for the cultural genocide of residential schools. There are stories aplenty of some of the Realms who are considering abandoning the monarchy in favour of republicanism, as Barbados just did, but some can’t seem to distinguish between the Commonwealth (a voluntary organisation mostly made up of former British colonial holdings, but has since expanded to include countries with no such colonial ties) and the Realms (the fifteen countries for whom the Queen served as monarch), and it makes the questions very awkward if they really don’t know what they’re asking (looking at you, Power & Politics). And then there are the stories, largely American, which can’t get the basics right about the funding of the monarchy, or that taxpayer dollars are paying for the Queen’s funeral (as though American taxpayer dollars don’t pay for their presidents’ state funerals, or for their presidential libraries/personality shines).

It’s predictable, and it’s utterly provincial. I’m sure plenty of them think they’re being edgy, or getting to the real hard news of the day, but it’s mostly coming off as ill-informed, devoid of proper context, and in some cases, without much in the way of constitutional reality. I wish I could say we should expect better, but sadly, it’s about exactly what we can expect form our media outlets.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 203:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ventured out of Kyiv yesterday, visiting the strategic city of Izyum now that it has been liberated from the Russians. On the way back to Kyiv, however, his motorcade was involved a collision, though his injuries were said to be minor. One of the towns recently freed was Hrakove, which was largely levelled by Russians, and its original population of 1000 is now about 30. Meanwhile, nearly 5000 Ukrainian recruits have completed basic training in the UK from allied trainers, including Canadians. Ukraine is also seeking a more formalised treaty with Western partners to ensure its protection from future Russian invasion.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1570006459324284928

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Roundup: Poilievre plays victim around the media

We’re in the first week of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, and he’s already sticking to his antagonistic playbook. He announced his leadership team first thing in the morning, with two deputies—Melissa Lantsman (a Jewish lesbian) and Tim Uppal (a Sikh) in order to inoculate himself against the usual cries that the party is racist and bigoted. A short while later, Quebec MP Alain Rayes announced he was leaving caucus and going to sit as an independent, because he didn’t like the direction Poilievre was going. (Cue everyone insisting that the party has “never been more united,” which is what they all say just before and after such an exit).

Fast-forward a couple of hours, and the federal government has announced their assistance package for low-income people dealing the effects of high inflation, and Poilievre calls a press conference to react. And the spectacle begins. David Akin, one of the reporters present, takes offence that Poilievre insists he won’t take questions (and he hasn’t since he was made leader), and starts shouting questions at him. And what does Poilievre do? Call Akin a “Liberal heckler” (because the pool camera can’t see Akin as he’s behind it), and a few hours later, sends out a fundraising appeal to his base that plays victim, that the media is out to get him, and that they’re all protecting Trudeau, and that you need to send him money to take on both Trudeau and the media. It’s gross, it undermines institutions, it undermines democracy, but he doesn’t care. It’s his game. And most of the media in this country have no idea how to react to it, and it’s going to be a real problem going forward.

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1569903207555497985

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1569872613228400642

As for the government’s assistance package (dental care for low-income children under 12, enhanced rent support for low-income people, doubling the existing GST tax credit, which again, targets low-income households—and yes, the NDP are loudly taking credit for all of it), there are some good analysis threads from Lindsay Tedds and Jennifer Robson, and because these are targeted at the low end, they’re really unlikely to drive inflation, unlike say the cheques certain provinces are sending out to everyone, whether they need them or not. And Poilievre’s insistence that this will make things worse because they increase the deficit (the deficit, if there will even be one this year, isn’t driving inflation—global factors are), and then demands that the government not raise taxes. The only taxes going up is the luxury tax on boats, private planes, and luxury cars. The carbon price is not a tax, and rebates more to lower-income households than they spend. CPP and EI premiums are not taxes. Higher taxes actually fight inflation, lowering them makes it worse. The absolute economic illiteracy should be mind-numbing, until you realises that he gets his information from crypto-bros on YouTube, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1569770945895895042

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 202:

Russian troops are not only retreating from positions in the northeast of the country, they are also retreating in the south, and heading toward positions in Crimea. As these towns and cities are liberated, authorities are moving in to document war crimes against civilians. Of course, shelling does continue around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and Russians are still hitting Kharkiv, even though they have been repelled from the area, which is being taken as a sign of desperation. Analysts believe this rapid retreat is the sign of a spent Russian military, their approach unsustainable,

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1569704142167506944

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Roundup: Stop saying “woke”

The first Monday after the Conservative leadership contest, and already shots are being fired between Poilievre and Trudeau. Poilievre kicked off the day, first by meeting with his Quebec caucus alone to reassure them and ask them to rally around him in unity, and then addressed the caucus at large with a public speech in which he decried Trudeau’s “radical woke coalition,” and then spouted a bunch of nonsense about inflation.

From his caucus retreat, Trudeau responded with a quick congratulation to Poilievre for his victory, before calling out his reliance on “buzzwords, dog whistles and careless attacks,” as well as his “highly questionable, reckless economic ideas.” While this is happening, it sounds like a few Quebec MPs told Radio-Canada that they want the party to move more toward the “Centre” (which is odd, because they never really left it, and no, they have not actually taken a sharp leftward turn), and wants them to be “less woke,” which again, is a strange turn of phrase because I’m not sure what it’s supposed to mean. Should they be openly racists or homophobic? Is that what they think will win them votes? Is attempting to be inclusive so terrible? Really?

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 201:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive carried on in the country’s northeast, clearing out much of the Russian occupiers that have been in place since February, and it was done with such speed in part because Russians were simply surrendering in large numbers. Many of these prisoners are intended to be swapped with Russia for captured Ukrainian troops, so we’ll see how that progresses in the near term.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1569393669484036096

https://twitter.com/cmhwee/status/1569324523891363840

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