Roundup: Releasing more F-35 deal details

All of the talk yesterday was about the big F-35 announcement, which wasn’t actually about the decision around the F-35s, but rather some of the details around dates and costs. That didn’t, however, stop every media outlet from running clips of Trudeau in 2015 saying that he wasn’t going to buy F-35s because they weren’t the right plane for Canada and the price was astronomical. Well, some things have changed since then, but primarily it was the fact that the consensus among NATO allies has been to settle on the F-35 (as flawed as it is—no, seriously, last I checked, the ejection seats will literally kill a pilot who is below a certain height/weight), and interoperability is a key function, particularly when most of their use will be over North America. Ironically, now that Sweden is joining NATO, their Gripen fighters will have to become NATO compatible, which was the other choice for Canada in this procurement.

The other thing, which is being downplayed by certain circles, is that there was an actual proper procurement process, which the Harper government didn’t engage in when they sole-sourced the F-35s the first time, on dubious advice. There are going to be questions about the industrial benefits, but as participants in the joint strike fighter development programme, Canadian firms have been part of the supply chain for a while now, so the benefits are not like they used to be in previous procurement processes. But really, this was not the same kind of regional job creation programme that the shipbuilding process was, which is not really working out well for us.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 321:

Russian forces intensified their assault on Soledar, near Bakhmut, primarily with Wagner Group mercenaries. Ukrainian soldiers repelled the attempted advance.

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Roundup: Those December job numbers

The big, and well, only real news yesterday in Canada were the release of the job numbers from Statistics Canada, and they blew past expectations. Far beyond them. Analysts forecast somewhere between five and eight thousand new jobs in December, and instead there were 104,000, the vast majority of them full-time, and almost all in the private sector. The unemployment rate edged down further to five percent, which is just barely off of the record low of 4.9% we saw over the summer. This shows that the labour market is still incredibly tight, and the Bank of Canada’s estimation that this level is unsustainable and a sign there is still too much demand in the economy that it’s driving inflation, and it requires some rebalancing to ensure that those job numbers are more sustainable. There have been a lot of fairly torqued readings of Tiff Macklem’s comments, that unemployment needs to be higher to slow inflation, but I’m not sure that captures enough nuance in what he’s trying to say.

The point in the report about record high employment levels for core-aged women, particularly those with small children, is particularly important because of this government’s focus on child care deals with provinces. This is one of the points of it—getting more women into the workforce, and the programme pays for itself with all of the additional revenue generated by those women in the workforce. It may be too soon to draw the straight line between the child care deals and those women going back to work, because in most provinces, the fees have only just started falling, but it does point to why early learning and child care is important, because the tight labour market needs those core-aged women right now.

And then there is all of the talk of the “looming recession.” It still may not happen, and there could be a “soft landing” of slower growth while the labour market rebalances itself, but not negative growth or a significant increase in unemployment. And if there is a recession, it’s not likely to be one with too many job losses because of the tight labour market, and that could reduce some of the pressure, again, while the economy starts to rebalance itself to a more sustainable place. We’re not in the same place we were in previous economic downturns, so things could be very different this time around.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 318:

In spite of Russia saying they were going to enact a thirty-six hour ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas, they nevertheless carried on shelling parts of Ukraine, because that’s who they are. They then said Ukraine was shelling them, but Ukraine didn’t agree to the ceasefire, so…

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1611345077871284227

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1611339196391882752

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Roundup: TikTok tracking journalists

One of those nightmare data scenarios seems to have occurred, where TikTok was found to have improperly accessed the user data of three journalists in order to try and find who was leaking information to them. It’s important to remember that the app aggressively hoovers up data, even more aggressively than apps like Facebook, and it can even gather data on people who don’t even use the app itself. This is precisely why governments around the world have banned it on their devices, and why the US is considering banning it outright, particularly because its owners are in China and subject to the country’s national security laws that can make all of that personal data vulnerable. While one person quit and three were fired in the investigation that followed this incident of improper access, it’s an important reminder that a lot of these kinds of apps are not as benign as they may seem, and for people to be very careful with what permissions they grant the app when they install it.

https://twitter.com/Dennismolin11/status/1605907809945542666

Programming Note: I’m taking the rest of the year off. Loonie Politics columns will still appear in the interim, but everything else is on pause until the New Year. Thanks again for reading, and I’ll see you in 2023!

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 303:

Ukrainian forces shelled the occupied city of Donetsk, injuring a former Russian deputy prime minister and a pro-Moscow official. Here is a look at how Ukrainian pilots are trying to spot incoming Russian missiles and either shoot them down or alert ground-based defences. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took the opportunity to meet with his Polish counterpart on his way home from Washington DC.

https://twitter.com/AndrzejDuda/status/1605984900275994625

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1605854337397301250

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Roundup: The passing of Jim Carr

Just before Question Period was about to start yesterday, the news broke that Liberal MP Jim Carr, who had been dealing with cancer for the past three years, had died. Proceedings were cancelled for the day, and tributes have been pouring in.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 293:

It appears that Russia has burned through so much ammunition that they are now using decade-old stockpiles with high failure rates. Ukrainian forces say they have repelled Russian advances against four settlements in eastern Donetsk, and on eight settlements in Luhansk. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy met virtually with G7 leaders about the need for modern tanks, artillery, shells, and natural gas to help their situation.

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Roundup: Not a national government?

The “Sovereignty Act” passed in Alberta on Wednesday night, albeit in a slightly amended form where the Henry VIII clause was largely taken out, but it’s still hot garbage and still blatantly unconstitutional on a number of fronts, so have no worries there. Rachel Notley has, not incorrectly, pointed out that that the rejection of federal authority clearly lays the groundwork for separatism, and the brain trust (if you can call it that) which were behind the bill are actively trying to court a constitutional crisis, demanding constitutional changes or they’ll start holding separation referendums (because that won’t devastate the province’s economy like it did Quebec’s in 1980. Cripes).

And then Danielle Smith said something really stupid, like she is wont to do, insisting that we don’t have a national government (erm, we do), and that provinces are sovereign (they’re not), and made up a bunch of ahistorical nonsense about signatories to the constitution and powers of the provinces, and it’s all wrong, but it’s not like Smith cares.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1600839666877562880

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1600840633350082560

As for Justin Trudeau, he is steadfastly refusing to take the bait, and it looks like there will be some court challenges to the legislation in Alberta before the federal government is forced to make any kind of move to refer it to the Supreme Court of Canada. Some of those challenges may come from the province’s First Nations, who can clearly see that this is going to infringe on their inherent and treaty rights because it’s a resource grab by the province (and likewise in Saskatchewan with their “Saskatchewan First Act”) which is an absolute violation of Indigenous rights.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 289:

Russian forces shelled the entire front of the Donetsk region, in what Ukrainians say is a bid to secure the bulk of territory they have already claimed, with the fiercest fighting once again near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian officials are also saying that Russia has installed multiple rocket launchers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, apparently trying to use it as a base to fire on Ukrainian territory, which not only violates all rules around nuclear safety, but is trying to use the plant as a shield from retaliation.

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QP: A rare ejection from the Chamber

The prime minster was present for the first time in over a week, and unusually, none of the other leaders were present. Jasraj Hallan led off, and accused the government’s deficit spending of “forcing” the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, which is obvious nonsense to anyone who pays a modicum of attention. Hallan accused that spending of hiring Canadians, complained about the carbon price, and demanded it be scrapped. Justin Trudeau said that the Conservatives were consistent in opposing the government being there for Canadians, listing measures they voted against, while the government would continue to be there for people while being fiscally responsible. Hallan accused Trudeau of sitting in an ivory tower, spending money, and driving inflation, and insisted he was the “architect” of sending children to food banks. (Honestly, who is writing this material?) Hallan concluded by wondering when the prime minister would understand that Canadians can’t afford any more of his “failures.” Trudeau pointed out that Conservatives complain the government doesn’t help people and then oppose their measures to help people, whether it’s dental care, rental supports, or child care. Tracy Gray took over to complain that people can’t afford to heat their homes, blaming the prime minister on “tripling down” on carbon prices. Trudeau said that he has heard that people are facing difficult times, which is why they are there with supports in spite of Conservative opposition. Richard Martel took over in French to decry the interest rate increase, and he too blamed the government for inflation and carbon prices. Trudeau recite that while they are concerned about the rising cost of living, they are doing something about it unlike the Conservatives. Martel said it was “ironic” that the government says they understand concerns while they gave benefit cheques to dead people, before he demanded the cancellation of carbon prices. Trudeau said it was incredible to see Conservatives attack and make fun of benefits that helped Canadians during the height of the pandemic.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and raised the RCMP contract for the company with Chinese ties, wondering how the prime minister could explain the lack of checks on this bid. Trudeau noted that they were concerned by the contract and that they would ensure that national security interests were not jeopardised. Therrien wondered why they didn’t consult with the CSE on this procurement, and Trudeau reiterated that they are looking into the contract.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he shouted that they prime minister was absent on the file with the crisis in children’s hospitals. Trudeau took a script to read the measures that have taken around procuring medications and transfers. Don Davies read the same condemnation in English, demanding the prime minster sit down with premiers to solve the crisis. Trudeau insisted that they were increasing transfers and that they would be there to ensure there were significant improvements. 

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Roundup: The Auditor General is not infallible

I have to say that I am both amused and irritated by the number of stories out over the past couple of days about the Conservatives supposedly “defending” the Auditor General, or that there is a “battle brewing” between the AG and the Canada Revenue Agency because they didn’t agree with her calculations around some of the benefits or whom she believed were receiving them on a fraudulent basis. For one, the Conservatives didn’t come to her defence—it was a bit of cheap theatre for them to suddenly start screaming that the government somehow attacked her independence and therefore “democracy itself” (no, seriously, they said that) because the revenue minister said that the CRA didn’t agree with her calculations, and then cheekily added that it wasn’t her fault because the opposition was forcing her to do the audit (which is partially true—it was the compromise that they insisted on to pass the emergency COVID legislation back at the start of the pandemic, so the mandate was legislated, but because they demanded it).

My bigger problem is the fact that this disagreement is somehow scandalising because we have an unhealthy veneration of Officers of Parliament and the Auditor General most especially in this country. A virtual cult has been built around them, particularly by media, who love nothing more than watching the AG go to town on criticising the government of the day, no matter which stripe of government it is, and they will uncritically believe absolutely everything the AG says because they are independent, and therefore must be inherently credible. There are similar problems with this lack of critical engagement with the Parliamentary Budget Officer (and the current one has been a real problem around that, as he picks methodologies out of thin air), and again, his word is gospel. But they’re not infallible. The previous AG ballsed up the Senate audit really badly, and it was an absolute mess, but nobody wanted to talk about it because you can’t badmouth the Auditor General. It’s like a cardinal sin in this city. And departments should be allowed to have disagreements, because the AG isn’t going to get it right every time. That’s just a physical impossibility, and we should acknowledge that fact, but as we see, when it happens, it’s like heresy. People need to grow up, and media needs to be more critical of these Officers, because media is the only check they have.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 288:

Kyiv’s mayor is warning people that while there is no need to evacuate at present, it could become necessary if Russian strikes continue on critical infrastructure over the winter. There are some concerns around movements inside of Belarus, but it is also suspected this may be a decoy and an information operation to keep Ukrainian troops near that border rather than at the front lines. Elsewhere, here is the harrowing tale of a Ukrainian father who was separated from his children by Russians while trying to flee Mariupol, and his ordeal in getting them back from Russian hands.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1600404008463523841

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QP: “Bludgeoning” the Auditor General

The prime minister was still in Montreal at the COP15 biodiversity conference, and his deputy was in town but elsewhere, while only some of the other leaders were present today. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he decried the interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, but blamed “inflationary deficits” from the government as the cause, which is not actually true, no matter the misquote that Poilievre attributed to the Bank Governor, and told the government to stop spending. Randy Boissonnault responded that the Bank is independent, that Canadians are living through difficult times, and he rejected the notion that their investments caused inflation, quoting the former Bank Governor, Stephen Poloz, that the investments stopped deflation, and then implored them to support Bill C-32. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the same misleading concerns before quoting a single mother from a news story, saying that she listened to the government’s assurances that interest would be low for long. Boissonnault responded that Poilievre shouldn’t talk about advice given that he told people to invest in crypto, before he listed measures the government has taken to help people. Poilievre then changed topics, and raised objections from the Liberal MP for Yukon to the firearms legislation as currently envisioned and needled the government about it. Marco Mendicino gave a fairly standard response about not targeting hunters and farmers and that the bill gives resources to police and border agencies. Poilievre switched back to French, to raise the story of the RCMP getting a contract linked to someone under criminal suspicion for espionage in the United States, and whose parent company is in China. Helena Jaczek noted that they are studying the issue, but the company did meet their needs, so they are ensuring that they are protecting national security. Poilievre returned to English to accuse the answer of being “encrypted in bureaucratese” before repeating the question, and Mendicino noted that there is a rigorous process for contracts and they are scrutinising the process run by independent civil servants, and then raised the independent panels observing the last two elections to point out that they took actions but the Conservatives did not.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and gave an analogy about dangerous driving as a way of demanding the federal government increase health transfers to provinces. Mark Holland stood up to offer bland assurances that they are continuing to invest in the system. Therrien insisted there was no cooperation, and demanded increased transfers. Carolyn Bennett insisted they were working with the provinces to ensure there was not only funding but a national vision on healthcare, and listed the transfers sent to provinces.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and decried the interest rate hike, and demanded the prime minister find a way to tackle inflation without hurting workers. Boissonnault reminded him that the Bank of Canada is independent and the government is doing their job of keeping fiscal firepower for when they need it and listed actions they have taken. Singh switched to French to worry about consumer debts and repeated his same demand, Boissonnault repeated his same answer.

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QP: Disney+ versus crypto outrage

While the PM had landed in Bali for the G20 meeting, his deputy was present for Question Period back in Ottawa. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about children not getting medication, and the report that only Canada is lacking these medications out of 19 countries that one company distributes to. Jean-Yves Duclos noted that the supply has increased, and that hours ago, they announced that they signed a deal with a company to import several months’ supply of children analgesics. Poilievre repeated the question in English, and Duclos repeated his answer in English. Poilievre then misquoted the governor of the Bank of Canada on the supposed “domestic” source of inflation (which is not what he said—the inflationary pressures are largely domestic now because they have metastasised through the economy, not because they were caused by local factors) and then wholly made up him saying that they need to cut wages and increase unemployment (which is entirely false), and demanded to know if the government agrees. Chrystia Freeland praised their “compassionate” and “fiscally responsible” plan, and quoted the Globe and Mail to bolster her cause. Poilievre raised the cost of diesel and blamed that on food-price inflation (it’s not the cause), and decried that families in “oil-heated communities” couldn’t cut their subscriptions to Disney+ to heat their homes, again raising the fake outrage that dominated the country last week, before demanding they cut the carbon price. Freeland noted that everyone in this Chamber is privileged, and that she recognises how privileged her family is, which is why they focused the government’s finite resources on those who need it. Poilievre demanded that the Liberals end their plan to “triple, triple, triple” their carbon price, and this time Fraser got up to take exception to the line about oil-heated communities because his province has seen the cost of climate inaction and worse is yet to come, and after the Speaker had to quiet the Chamber down, Fraser said that perhaps they should turn on the microphones of the backbenches to showcase their climate denialism.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the notion that the conversation on health transfers was futile as provinces we “rolling in money,” and demanded they talk to emergency room doctors. Duclos insisted that they should be discussing actions that should be taken. Therrien decried that the “pontificators” in government were unable to do things like get passports out, so how could they manage healthcare (which no one is asking). Pablo Rodriguez got up and chirped about the Bloc’s recent convention and how their only priority was independence and not helping people. 

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, decried the overloaded emergency rooms and demanded that the federal do something about it, as though it were their jurisdiction. Duclos listed the stressors on the system and called on people to mask and vaccinate. Don Davies took over in English, raised drug shortages and demanded a plan, to which Duclos reminded him that they did announce an emergency importation of analgesics as domestic production ramps up. 

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QP: Chaining us to oil oligarchs

Both the prime minister and his deputy were present today, which tends to always be a better day than when they’re away. Pierre Poilievre started off in French, where he cited a report stating that inflation and interest rates will cost Canadians an extra $3000 this year. Justin Trudeau responded with a fairly standard rebuttal of his government helping Canadians while the Conservatives, who were free to disagree with their affordability measures were now blocking them from passing. Poilievre switched to English to insist that the rental supports would help no one, and that the government oversaw the worst housing bubble on planet Earth. Trudeau reiterated that no only does he not support people, he his also blocking the measures from going forward. Poilievre took the opportunity to decry the cost of rent and housing, and that the government was tripling the tax on the costs to heat them (not true), and Trudeau dismissed this as attack politics, and repeated that Poilievre was blocking their supports rather than simply disagreeing. Poilievre tried to sound wounded, and demanded that home heating be exempted from the carbon price, to which Trudeau insisted that most families get back than they spend on carbon prices. Poilievre then dismissed this, and tried to call Trudeau a “high-carbon hypocrite,” to which Trudeau accused Poilievre of simply trying to help the rich, and pointed out that trickle-down economics doesn’t work, as the UK is learning right now.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he accused the government of secrecy on the contracts linked to Roxham Road, and Trudeau took up a script to say the contract decisions were made by public service and CBSA contacted the land owner, where they could not change the location, and they got market value for the use. Therrien railed that the government insisted on national security clauses in the contracts to hide them from the public, and Trudeau reiterated the same response.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, he worried about a possible recession on the horizon, and demanded a plan from the government before people suffer. Trudeau insisted they were already engaged, and called on support for the other affordability measures like rental supports and dental care. In English, Singh raised the state of the EI system and repeated his demand for a plan in the event of a recession, and Trudeau repeated his tired line that they have Canadians’ backs.

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