Roundup: Not releasing the contracts

It seems that prime minister Justin Trudeau has rejected a call by the premiers to release the details of the vaccine contracts – as well he should have. So much of the past couple of weeks’ panic over the delays in Pfizer and Moderna doses has been this self-assuredness that the federal government must have negotiated a bad deal, and they’re going to “prove it” by demanding to see what’s in the contracts. After all, most of the conservative-leaning premiers are still operating under the assumption that Trudeau is some kind of naïf who can barely put his own pants on let alone govern a country (while most of them believe themselves to be super-geniuses). Of course, all that making the contracts public would do is to allow other countries to start trying to outbid what we paid for our doses in order to get the companies to break the contracts in order to get their own orders faster.

With this in mind, I would point you in the direction of this longread from Maclean’s, which goes through the story of the procurement process for these vaccines, including talking to some of the players involved, and while no secrets are divulged, some of the calculations on the part of the companies is better fleshed out, including the fact that our public healthcare system ostensibly makes out rollout likely to go more smoothly, which is good for the companies because it means fewer wasted doses. Now, mind you, it’s not going to be even across the country given the disparities in health systems between provinces, and the varying levels of incompetence that some of the provincial governments display, but there are some good insights in the piece, so I would encourage you to take the time to read it through.

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QP: Pouncing on COVAX

There was a second Liberal in the Chamber today, with Francis Drouin joining Mark Gerretsen, not that this made the situation any better. Candice Bergen led off for the Conservatives, appearing by video, and she demanded government support for their Supply Day motion on the creation of a Canada-US committee. Chrystia Freeland, also by video, responded that the Conservatives’ plan around Trump’s tariffs was to wave the white flag. Bergen tried again, bringing in the concerns over Line 5, to which Freeland offered calm assurances that they were working with the Americans on this file. Bergen then switched to the topic of vaccines, worrying that we were dropping in rankings, to which Freeland gave the usual assurances about the portfolio and that the schedule was still intact. Gérard Deltell took over in French, and he said it was “humiliating” that the government was drawing from the COVAX fund, misconstruing the deal. Freeland responded that COVAX was always part of the strategy, and this proved the system was working. Deltell pressed upon the urgency of the need for vaccines, and Freeland gave the same assurances.

Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and he too brought up the false reading of the COVAX programme, calling it “embarrassing,” and Freeland repeated that it was always part of the strategy and listed other allies who were part of it. Therrien demanded a plan for vaccinations, for which Freeland calmly stated that they also shared the sense of urgency, which is why they are sharing all of their information.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, he tied the loss of lives to vaccine delays, and wanted to know why the government let people down. Freeland read off the talking points on the breadth of our vaccine portfolio. Singh switched to English to repeat the same ghoulish framing and brought up COVAX to repeat the same question on letting people down. Freeland once again repeated that this was always part of the strategy.

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Roundup: The COVAX conundrum

It was another day of less than optimal vaccine news yesterday – first a warning that there was going to be more fluctuation in future shipments including what appears to be another reduction in the next Moderna shipment (of which we’re still not sure the allocation yet), followed by news that we are in line for a shipment from the COVAX facility, which comes with its own particular special challenges.

Why? Because part of COVAX is to provide vaccines to the developing world, and it appears that Canada is accepting vaccines that would be going to them. Except that’s not the deal we signed – while we are funding vaccines for the developing world through COVAX (and will be sending our excess doses once our own population is vaccinated), part of the procurement diversification strategy was the stream under COVAX that we get some doses while also funding for the developing world. But of course, that wasn’t clearly explained – and the minister did have to do the media rounds to do that later in the day, by which it was too late, and you had everyone tut-tutting that we’re taking doses from those who need it more than we do. Which, incidentally, is happening at the same time that the government is being yelled at for not procuring more doses faster (as though yelling will make Pfizer’s retooling go faster or Moderna’s supply chain issues resolve themselves), and lo, we have doses that we paid for, but we’re going to look like jerks if we take them. Damned if we do, damned if we don’t. Good thing this government can communicate effectively. Oh, wait…

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QP: Disputing the vaccine math

Another day of the Liberals only putting up Mark Gerretsen in the House, another day of their ongoing contempt for what Parliament means in the face of a pandemic – made worse by this being PMQ day, and the prime minister would only appear virtually. Erin O’Toole led off, in person, on Enbridge Line 5 once again, noting that Imperial Oil is making contingency plans to move the oil by rail if it is shut down, and demanded action. Justin Trudeau, appearing by video, assured him they were engaging with the Americans on Line 5. O’Toole insisted that Trudeau wasn’t engaged as it wasn’t mentioned in any of the readouts of his calls with top US officials, and Trudeau repeated that they are engaging on Line 5 and pointing out its importance. O’Toole pivoted to the front page of the Globe and Mail and its denunciation of the vaccine plan, and demanded a new one — err, which is mostly provincial jurisdiction. Trudeau reminded him of their strong procurement plan, and investments in domestic options. O’Toole changed to French to raise the issue of PnuVax not getting any domestic production contracts, to which Trudeau reminded him of all the domestic investments they made. O’Toole railed that no shipments arrived last week, to which Trudeau reminded him that there will be the fulfilled contracts by the end of the quarter, in spite of fluctuations week-to-week.

Yves-François Blanchet got up to lead for the Bloc, and he lamented the vaccine numbers before demanding the contracts be made public, to which Trudeau contested his assertions.  Blanchet wondered if he got any contracts about getting Pfizer doses from the US, to which Trudeau called out his fear-mongering, and said that they were working to ensure supply chains remain open.

Jagmeet Singh was then up for the NDP, and in French, he wondered why the government didn’t plan for domestic production a year ago, to which Trudeau reminded him that they did invest in domestic options from the very start. Singh accused the government of giving “mixed messages” on domestic production — which is not actually true — before repeating his question in English, for which he got the same response.

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Roundup: Domestic vaccine production…eventually

There was a sliver of positive news yesterday, when it was announced that the federal government had signed a deal with Novavax to produce their vaccine in the future National Research Council facility in Montreal. The catch? That facility won’t be completed construction until summer, and then it will require Health Canada approval, so it may not be able to produce new doses until the end of the year – at which point, most Canadians should already be vaccinated using the Pfizer and Moderna doses we’ve contracted for. That doesn’t mean this facility still won’t be for naught – it’s possible we will need booster shots for the other vaccines, possibly do deal with different variants (and Novavax has shown success with the B.1.1.7 variant first spotted in the UK), and it also means that we will be able to produce for export to other countries who will need it.

Of course, this started back in on the same questions about why we weren’t able to produce vaccines domestically earlier, and why this plant is taking so long. Of course, this plant is actually moving faster than is usual – Good Manufacturing Practices facilities to produce vaccines usually take two or three years to build, not a single year, and there are several other facilities under construction across the country for other vaccine candidates. As for the same questions about why we didn’t contract to produce other vaccines here, it was because there were no suitable facilities – particularly from the approved ones. (This NRC facility was in talks to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine, but there is also talk about why the PnuVax facility in Montreal has not yet been tapped – but it may yet be for a future candidate once approved). And for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, we simply didn’t have facilities in this country that could produce mRNA vaccines to scale (most existing mRNA production was on a single-dose system for tailored vaccines used for treating particular cancers). And these are things we a) can’t build overnight, and b) didn’t know were even viable because it’s a new technology that had not yet been approved for a vaccine, especially on the scale of the one we’re dealing with now. It would have been a hell of a gamble to build a facility to GMP standards for a vaccine technology that may not have panned out.

Why I’m particularly annoyed about the return of these questions – particularly from the likes of Jagmeet Singh as he appeared on platforms like Power & Politics – is that they pretend that any vaccine facility can produce any vaccine, ignoring that not all vaccines are created equally, or that the technology to produce vaccines isn’t different across platforms. Singh’s notion that a nationalised vaccine producer should have been able to handle this is also farcical because again, what platform would it have bet on? All of them? It’s ridiculous and dishonest – as have been the demands to make the vaccine procurement contracts public (which no other country has done), because all that would do is allow other countries to look at what we paid, and then offer the companies more money to break the contracts with us. (And FFS, both Singh and Erin O’Toole are lawyers and should know this). The kinds of point-scoring that is taking place right now is getting to be beyond the pale, and it’s obscuring the actual kinds of accountability we should be practicing.

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QP: Demanding a Line 5 tantrum

It was another day of the Liberals showing contempt for Parliament by only putting Mark Gerretsen in the Chamber. Erin O’Toole led off in person, demanding that the prime minister stand up for Enbridge Line 5, to which Justin Trudeau, by video, reminded him of everything his government had done in order to push back against American encroachment. O’Toole said that this wasn’t raised in any call for the past several weeks, to which Trudeau dismissed Conservative armchair quarterbacking, asserting that they got the job done. O’Toole then pivoted to praise Northern Ireland for getting written assurances that they would be exempt from EU export controls on vaccines, and demanded assurances in writing, and Trudeau stated that they got “strong assurances” that Canada would not be affected by these transparency measures. O’Toole switched to French to call out the contradiction between the prime minister and industry minister as to when the Montreal vaccine facility would be able to produce the Novavax candidate — by summer, or the end of the year. Trudeau said that he had stated that the facility should be finished by the summer, and can start production before the end of the year. O’Toole then demanded a plan on vaccine delivery, to which Trudeau accused him of fear-no getting, and reiterated the talking points on the quarterly delivery commitments.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and moaned about health care transfers and that the federal government wants national standards — taking a swipe at the NDP while he was at it. Trudeau stated that they would increase health transfers, that they already had increased investments, and there would be more discussions going forward. Blanchet then railed about national standards over Quebec standards, to which Trudeau reminded him that the Canadian Forces stepped in to help those Quebec long-term care facilities.

Jagmeet Singh then got up for the NDP, and demanded paid sick leave, and fixing the existing federal benefit. Trudeau reminded him that they created a federal programme to help people immediately but it was great to see some provinces step up (because this is 94 percent provincial jurisdiction). Singh switched to French to raise his meeting with François Legault to demand an increase in federal health transfers, and Trudeau stated that they would continue to increase them, and reminded him of the tens of billions sent to province through the pandemic.

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QP: Not taking yes for an answer on Line 5

It was yet another day where the Liberals had only a single MP in the Chamber yet again, no matter that there were plenty of other of their MPs in the building, continuing to show their contempt for Parliament as a result. (A second MP joined him for a few minutes, then left again). Candice Bergen led off virtually, and she railed about the threats to Enbridge Line 5, to which Seamus O’Regan agreed that the pipeline was vital and they were working to secure it. Bergen was not mollified and grumbled that the prime minister didn’t answer before demanding he do more to protect it. O’Regan assured her they were working on the file and it served no purpose to conflate it with other issues. Bergen railed that Trudeau had failed under three successive presidents to protect the energy sector, and O’Regan repeated his assurances that they were doing everything possible. Richard Martel took over in French to demand more vaccines, to which Anita Anand first started off by acknowledgement Black History Month and let it be known that she works to reach out to the Black community for procurement needs, before turning to the question and assuring him that there are two vaccine shipments arriving this week. Martel was not impressed and demanded vaccines immediately, and Anand assured him that factories were ramping up production to meet demand.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demand a guarantee that vaccine deliveries were going to get back on track, to which Anand assured him that a Pfizer shipment was en route. Therrien railed that this was not good enough, but Anand insisted that they shared this priority of getting vaccines to Canadians, and that the overall schedule was not affected. Jagmeet Singh led for the NDP, and in French, he demanded all non-essential flights be cancelled, to which Omar Alghabra reminded him that they have some of the toughest measures in the world, and listed them. Singh repeated the demand in English, and got the same answer,

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Roundup: Kenney’s boggling re-opening

Because the state of the pandemic is going so well in Alberta, Jason Kenney announced that they will start lifting some restrictions starting February 8th, and I am boggled. Just boggled. Kenney says that tagging the decisions to lifting restrictions to hospitalisation rates in three-week increments is somehow responsible because it’s a lagging indicator, but that’s precisely why it’s the wrong thing to do. It’s a lagging indicator. When hospitalisation rates go up, it’s already too late. New positives caught by testing can be up to two weeks behind infection, and hospitalisations can be a couple of weeks behind those, and this is a virus where the growth is exponential. It’s too late by then, and we have to remember that the province’s contact tracing still hasn’t been fully re-established after it got overwhelmed.

The notion that you can have “just a little COVID” and re-open the economy does not work – it grows exponentially, and hospitals get overwhelmed. It especially will not work a second time now that there are UK and South African variants in the community, which are way more easily transmitted, and places like the UK saw infection curves that went nearly vertical. Kenney is demonstration that he has learned absolutely nothing over the past eleven months, and he’s willing to let more people die for the economy.

I also wanted to take particular exception to Kenney’s health minister, Tyler Shandro, and his insufferable whinging that because of the vaccine delays, that Canada and Alberta are “not a priority,” to which I am forced to ask why they should be. Why are we so special as a country that we deserve vaccines before anyone else, particularly those countries who have been much harder hit that we have been? And I get that he is counting on the vaccines as their way out because they let the infections spread so badly that their hospitals were overwhelmed, and they had to largely shut down their economy again, but that’s on him. Vaccines were never going to be the solution for many, many more months. This sense of entitlement that Shandro is exhibiting is extremely off-putting, and needs to be questioned and called out.

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Roundup: A freak-out over vaccine math

With things in a particularly…fragile state around the vaccine rollout, leaking numbers without context should be seen as a Very Bad Thing, and yet that’s what happened yesterday morning, when it appeared to look like Pfizer was cutting the number of vials they were sending us before the end of our Q1 agreement, and there was a freak out. Premiers started demanding federal action (as though Justin Trudeau can just strong-arm Pfizer into producing more doses somehow), or badmouthing Pfizer itself (because that’ll help). And it turns out that it was all for naught.

It turns out that with the possibility that the vials of vaccine will be re-labelled to say that they contain six doses instead of five (which apparently is not uniform, and requires either a skilled operator or different syringes which are in short supply right now), Pfizer decided to rejig the math so that there are the same numbers of doses, but just in fewer vials. Health Canada has not agreed to this re-labelling, and has no timeline on when such a decision could be made, but Pfizer apparently jumped the gun in sending new numbers that got misinterpreted (and misrepresented once the context was actually known), and this government can’t communicate its way out of a wet paper bag at the best of times, so its inability to properly communicate these new figures only made things worse (especially as they didn’t smack it down during Question Period). And if Health Canada doesn’t relabel the vials? Pfizer still sends us the contracted-for number of doses. So the freak-out was for nothing – except maybe yet another kick in the ass for this government to get in the game when it comes to getting ahead of these things.

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Meanwhile, we also found out that Ontario had mis-reported its vaccination figures, and they’ve only vaccinated half as many as they said they did, which really puts the province’s hue and cry into the fact that it was running out of doses into a new light – and also the fact that they have been so desperate to blame the federal government for everything. It’s the “look over there” strategy, that certain members of the media seem to keep falling for, every single time. The absolute incompetence of the Ford government never fails to astound.

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QP: Delay, lag, and disingenuous concern

It was another bleak day for attendance, when there wasn’t even quorum in the Chamber, because who cares about the gods damned constitution? Erin O’Toole led off, in person, mini-lectern on desk, and he worried about what is happening with Enbridge Line 5 in Michigan, and wanted action on this. Chrystia Freeland, via video, assured him that the understand the importance of the energy sector, and they were working with the American administration. O’Toole tried again, got the same answer, and then he switched to the Economist’s problematic prediction for when Canadians would be vaccinated, along with some disingenuous trolling about the misunderstood vaccine numbers out this morning. Freeland assured him that six million doses would still be delivered by the end of the first quarter, but did not explain the confusion around doses. O’Toole repeated the question in French, and got the same answer from Freeland in French. O’Toole tried to be theatrical in his concern in French — and it came off very badly— and Freeland repeated her assurances about doses arriving. Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and he complained about people being quarantined while accessing benefits, to which Freeland assured him that they were working to close this loophole and hoped the opposition would work toward that. Therrien was not mollified and demanded people repay benefits they got, and Freeland assured him, in a calm voice, that they were working on this and would be adding additional measures at the border. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and in French, repeated the false reading about the Pfizer vaccine dose numbers, for which Freeland gave her rote reassurances without explaining the numbers. Singh demanded the vaccine plan in English — never mind that the rollout is almost wholly provincial jurisdiction, and Freeland again repeated her memorised reassurances.

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