We’re still talking Trudeau’s trip to Washington? Of course we are. Today some of it was a bit more oblique, but during his video town hall with Huffington Post, Trudeau was repeatedly asked about Donald Trump, and most of it he tried to avoid answering, talking about how lovely Cape Breton is (context: it’s become a kind of joke about how Americans fleeing Trump would move there), but he did offer that Trump would likely tone down his rhetoric should he win the nomination and start running for the general election instead. He did offer a few other, broader comments on what he’s witnessed in the American election cycle, about the cynicism that is on full display, and how it may need broad-based campaign finance reform like we saw here in Canada in the late nineties, and again after Harper came to power in 2006, where we got big money out of our politics. He’s got a point, but one suspects that there is more than just campaign finance laws that are broken in American politics. As for the big state dinner, Stéphane Dion said that it will help showcase that environment and the economy can exist together, as evident by some of the choices (like Catherine McKenna’s apparently inclusion). Meanwhile, it looks like we can probably expect an announcement on protecting the environment in the Arctic, as well as some overdue progress on thinning the border.
Tag Archives: Procurement
Roundup: Go knock doors
While I’ve pretty much said my piece on the Manning Conference, one last headline caught my eye yesterday, which was the “Traditional campaigns dead! It’s a digital world now!” variety, which made me roll my eyes a bit, but here it is. The “experts” – all American – talk about how Facebook and digital ads are where it’s at instead of TV advertising, but it seems to me like they missed entirely what happened during the last federal election – you know, something that the Conservatives might have a vested interest in actually learning from their mistakes in, rather than what is going on south of the border, with their utterly insane primary season and unlimited corporate and private money. Because seriously, if they paid attention to what the Liberals did here, it was actually a lot of traditional campaigning, which was door-knocking. Yes, they flooded social media with their “days of action,” which featured candidates and their teams – wait for it – door-knocking. There wasn’t a series of YouTube or Facebook ads that won the election for the Liberals – in fact, the only commercial that anyone remembers is the one with Trudeau on the escalator, and mostly because everyone tried to mock it (not all of it effectively). How often in the last decade did we hear about the Conservatives’ fearsome electoral machine with their CIMS database, and how that was helping them cut swaths though campaigns based on the smiley and frowney faces of voter identification? It didn’t win them the election. Yes, the Liberals rebuilt their own voter identification database (“Liberalist”), but again, what was it used for? Door-knocking, and canvassing donations, but it also bears noting that the Liberals did not spend the most money, disproving that money is what wins elections. So if you’ll excuse me, I’ll take the words of these American “experts” that the Conservatives enlisted with a grain of salt, while the traditional shoe-leather method of direct voter engagement and going from door-to-door is putting in the hard work that won a majority of seats.
Roundup: Giorno joins the brigade
Proponents of proportional representation are getting a bit of a boost across party lines as former Harper advisor Guy Giorno is adding his name to the so-called “Every Voter Counts Alliance” to push the government to adopt such a measure. (Note that the name of this group is hugely problematic because every vote already counts, and suggesting otherwise is tantamount to voter suppression). Giorno says the Conservatives shouldn’t be afraid that changing the system will mean that they will be permanently shut out of power (as is one of the arguments that proponents tout as a feature of the change), before launching into the usual talking points of “fairer” and “more democratic” which are a) complete bunk, and b) at a direct cost to the system of accountability that the existing First-Past-The-Post system is really good at achieving. Also, it’s a bit rich to hear the hyper-partisan Giorno talk about how wonderful it would be for PR-elected legislatures to require more co-operation, collegiality, working together” – all of which is ridiculous, since it simply changes the power calculus in order to keep coalitions cobbled together and giving smaller and more radical parties outsized influence to keep those coalitions together, while parties at the centre of governments can go for decades without being tossed out as they shuffle coalition partners around instead (again, a feature of our current system being the ability to throw the bums out, which PR does not do very well). Suffice to say, Giorno’s voice in the debate doesn’t actually change that the arguments are based on emotion and logical fallacies, and while he has different partisan credentials, it’s still a system that that nobody should be rushing into on the basis of emotion. Meanwhile, here’s Colby Cosh to demolish some of the arguments.
Quite a politically courageous move. </sirhumphrey> https://t.co/7SvBYQt8aO
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
PR is a terrific idea if you think being fair to *parties* is the most important goal of an electoral system. https://t.co/BDog8MpJ1a
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
Because under PR, all of them magically get the government they personally want! https://t.co/CQjG1vueIw
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
We’ll see what @guygiorno’s actual plan is! Maybe it’ll involve party lists! https://t.co/hcRbHDgGjs
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
“Collective will” is nonsense. We’re looking for an optimum method of aggregating individual wills. https://t.co/SCck9cMXTM
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
If I don’t like it, why would I want you to translate it from a tendency in our system to a formal premise of it? https://t.co/tT4T5vlbSR
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
You’ve decided they should, or must, all think the same way? Believe me, “thinking” is not always involved at all. https://t.co/2zrQDt2nZP
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
In presidential elections the taller guy usually wins. “Tape-measure elections! I’m just acknowledging reality!" https://t.co/VbgNGScNzL
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
Canadians also know that they have a Member of Parliament who is theirs, where they live. https://t.co/haIjOYcxxh
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
OK, so you’re gonna have party lists. Parties just don’t have enough power in our system… https://t.co/Wq1mcQZ8ay
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) February 25, 2016
Senate QP: Sajjan takes the heat
Senate QP invites a minister, round three, with special guest star National Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan. There were a few technical issues with the earpiece at the centre desk on the floor, and the Liberals invited Sajjan to use a desk on their side instead. Senator Carignan agreed, saying that it was technically the government side of the chamber, and once Sajjan was settled, Carignan led off, asking if Canada was officially at war with ISIS as France and the United States were. Sajjan gave a personal definition of war as being what we remember with the World Wars, and that this conflict was not of the same scale, but that didn’t lessen the commitment to the fight.
QP: Sad to see them go
On a snowy day in Ottawa, the parties were riled up after their caucus meetings, and ready to go for QP. Rona Ambrose led off, this time putting her mini-lectern on Andrew Scheer’s desk in order to get a different camera angle, and she wondered if the government was making up their deficit plans and they go along. Justin Trudeau chided the Conservatives for their decade of low growth, and noted their commitment to growth. Ambrose asked the same question in French, and Trudeau responded that they were creating jobs. Ambrose then moved to the issue of the CF-18s and noted an American General was “sad to see them go.” Trudeau retorted that our allies were glad that we stepped up our role in the fight against ISIS. Jason Kenney asked a meandering question about deficits and taxes, for which Trudeau praised investment in infrastructure, jobs and the middle class. Kenney wondered which taxes they would increase to pay for their deficits, to which Trudeau noted that the Conservatives had no idea about how to create growth in the economy. Thomas Mulcair was up next, and mentioned a First Nations community that was declaring a state of emergency for their everyday existence, and Trudeau thanked him for raising the issue and noted their promise to reset the relationship with First Nations. Mulcair moved to the question of a commitment to build a maintenance centre for Bombardier C-Series jets, for which Trudeau praised the agreement with Air Canada and Bombardier. Mulcair asked again in French, got the same answer, and for his final question, Mulcair demanded the stock option tax loophole, but Trudeau told him to wait for the budget.
Roundup: Mindless populism leading the way
As Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall has made his voice heard in recent weeks in the lead-up to his re-election campaign, and the Conservatives in Ottawa have taken up his banner on all manner of topics, it is the issue of carbon pricing that is driving home a few truths about both Wall and the Conservative Party. While there is talk about setting a baseline $15/tonne carbon price nationally, which can be implemented either by carbon tax (per BC) or cap-and-trade (per Ontario and Quebec), Wall is adamant that he doesn’t want it imposed on his province, and is going so far as to suggest that any “national carbon tax” (which, let’s be clear, it is not what is being discussed) would be exempt from SaskPower because it’s a provincial Crown corporation. And in the House of Commons, former Speaker Andrew Scheer gave a ridiculous and gobsmackingly boneheaded Members’ Statement on Monday which mocked the notion of a “carbon tax” (which, again, not on the table) as a market mechanism, and tried to apply it to other forms of taxation, generally making a fool out of himself in the process. But if you listen to what both Wall and Conservatives like Scheer are saying, it becomes obvious that intelligent, principled conservatism in this country has pretty much gone the way of the Dodo, and that we are left with right-flavoured populism in its wake. Because seriously, an actual conservative thinker would look at a carbon price, and using whichever mechanism (but likely an actual carbon tax), use that in order to encourage the market to find their own ways to reduce their carbon emissions. In fact, it’s what the oil sector has been demanding for years now, and they’ve even built carbon pricing into their books while they waited for some kind of direction as to just how much it would be and by what mechanism it would be applied. But rather than having an actual conservative government that would take this tool to and use the market to innovate and achieve the desired end (being lower carbon emissions), you have a bunch of populists in both Saskatchewan and Ottawa who howled instead about a fictional “job-killing carbon tax” and who held their breath and stamped their feet rather than dealing with the problem of carbon emissions for an entire decade. So while the Conservative Party starts to re-examine itself in advance of its leadership contest, perhaps this is something that they should consider – a return to actual conservative principles rather than this populist noise, which resulted in a decade of poor economic decisions (like lowering the GST), incoherent policy decisions, and as we can see here, childish tantrums to what should be an actual conservative approach to solving problems.
QP: Flailing about the deficit
Fallout from the financial update was still front and centre, and Rona Ambrose was off the mark to insist that deficits meant higher taxes in the long run. Trudeau immediately went into his talking points about investment and growth. Ambrose tried to burnish her previous government’s fiscal record, and claimed that our world leadership was in jeopardy (if it even existed). Trudeau hit back that Canadians didn’t believe in the Conservative record. Ambrose demanded immediate action on pipelines to create jobs, but Trudeau insisted that the only way to get projects off the ground was to do it in an environmentally responsible way. Maxime Bernier was up next, and railed about the size of deficits, to which Bill Morneau, without notes and in French, responded with points about investing in the economy. When Bernier pressed, Morneau insisted that the Conservatives left them in a hole that meant they had to start further behind. Thomas Mulcair got up next, and insisted that there was no firm commitment for Bombardier to do maintenance in Canada. Trudeau praised the agreement and everything it offered. Mulcair asked again in English, bringing in the Aveos contract, but Trudeau insisted that they were supporting the aerospace industry. Mulcair turned to EI benefits, and demanded immediate reforms to hours and eligibility, and Trudeau agreed that they were making changes. Mulcair asked again in French, and got the same answer.
Roundup: The expanded deficit
The big news yesterday was of course Bill Morneau’s fiscal update, in which he said that the deficit was slated to rise to $18.4 billion – and then everyone freaked out. But if you take a breath, you’ll see that in there is about $6 billion of wiggle room (or “fudge” as Andrew Coyne called it) when they adjusted down the growth projections of private sector economists – which have been particularly optimistic. As well, much of the current-year deficit is driven by lower revenues rather than new spending, despite what the Conservatives say, which is why the Liberals thought it clever to remark in QP yesterday in response to questions about the deficit that the Conservatives and NDP would be cutting all over the place in order to keep a balanced budget (to which Lisa Raitt, on the evening politics shows, rather indignantly replied “You don’t know that.”)
https://twitter.com/stephen_tapp/status/701758020103983104
https://twitter.com/stephen_tapp/status/701799653826813952
@markdjarvis You're not missing anything. pic.twitter.com/5jyGd1cBnN
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) February 22, 2016
As part of the changed fiscal picture, the “savings” the previous government booked for changing public service sick leave is now back in books (not that it would have actually achieved savings in the first place). Stephen Gordon wonders if spending to spur growth is the right policy when this period of low growth may not actually be temporary, but rather might be the new normal. Kevin Milligan on the other hand notes that because it’s so cheap to borrow right now that going into deficit won’t really cost as much in the future, as we are not in the same situation as we were 25 years ago. Maclean’s charts the worsening fiscal situation. Kevin Page has questions about the “holes” in the fiscal update. Morneau also hired Dominic Barton as a growth consultant, which likely means a focus on Asia.
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/701796830795931648
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/701797622537986049
QP: Scattering instead of pressing
Bill Morneau’s fiscal update a couple of hours previous before touched off a partisan storm over social media, which was bound to carry over into QP. Rona Ambrose, mini-lectern on desk, led off by reading a question about the size of the deficit. Justin Trudeau reminded her that they ran a campaign on investing to promote growth. Ambrose demanded to know who would pay for it all, at which Trudeau retorted that that they were already paying for the previous ten years of poor growth. Ambrose tried to burnish the previous government’s record, but Trudeau accused them of creative accounting. Gerard Deltell demanded controlled public spending, for which Trudeau reiterated his response about fudged numbers. Deltell gave it one last kick, and got the same answer. Thomas Mulcair was up next, and demanded the government respect the rights of Aveos workers rather than amend Air Canada’s legislation. Trudeau responded that they were proud that the agreement with Bombardier would encourage investment in aerospace. Mulcair asked again in English, got largely the same answer, and then demanded reforms to the EI system. Trudeau reminded him that they promised to strengthen the system, and they were going to. Mulcair demanded a universal eligibility threshold as part of that reform, and Trudeau reiterated that they were making needed changes.
The Liberal retort today is that the Conservatives and NDP would make massive cuts to keep the budget balanced. #QP
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) February 22, 2016
Roundup: It’s not a wealth transfer
Woe be Saskatchewan, apparently, with the collapse in global commodity prices, affecting both its oil and potash industries. Its premier, Brad Wall, is in full-on populist mode in advance of a provincial election, and when not goading Montreal mayor Denis Coderre over Energy East, he’s also demanding some kind of federal dollars should the Trudeau government decide to bail out Bombardier, as well as funds for his idea of a well-capping programme. To be fair, the well-capping idea is a good one, but Wall’s bombast is probably not helping, particularly when he makes comments about equalisation funding. The Conservatives have been all about equalisation in Question Period, with questions yesterday demanding “fairness” for Alberta and Saskatchewan after the territories were having their formulas adjusted, despite the explanation that the adjustments were because of changing Statistics Canada measurements. More egregious was when former Speaker Andrew Scheer decried that wealth was still being transferred to other provinces based on calculations from when Saskatchewan was benefitting from $100/barrel oil. And my head very nearly exploded when he asked that because it’s about as wrong – and frankly boneheaded – as one can get when discussing equalisation. Despite the common mythology, the federal equalisation is not a wealth transfer between provinces. “Have” provinces don’t write cheques to the federal government in order to pass them along to the “have not” provinces. It’s nothing like that at all. Every Canadian pays into equalisation by way of taxes, and the federal government will transfer some of its general revenue funds to provinces who need help in providing an equal level of service to its citizens. Now, provinces like to make all kinds of claims based on what their per-capita contributions to the programme are, but it’s not a bloody wealth transfer. I get why they like to claim that it is for political purposes, but it’s wrong and it just fuels these ridiculous regional conflicts (like the ones we’re seeing now between the west and Quebec based on nonsense rhetoric over Energy East) to no good end. So seriously, MPs and premiers – knock it off. You’re not helping anyone.