Tag Archives: Public Health

Roundup: Joly on a charm offensive?

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We are now in day twenty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and things continue to be in the same holding pattern—though there are continued air strikes, some now hitting Kyiv, one hitting an aircraft repair facility outside of Lviv. Some 6.5 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, and considering how many have headed to Lviv, the air strikes there are all the more concerning. In the meantime, negotiations with Russia continue, and there seems to be a bit of a shift in some of the tone. Meanwhile, President Biden had a two-hour video call with Chinese president Xi Jinping to sound out where China stands on this conflict, and to essentially warn the Chinese that there will be consequences if they side with Russia in this. As well, Russian and NATO commanders appear to be in constant communication to ensure that any mistakes made don’t wind up touching off a larger conflict by accident.

Elsewhere, in the wake of her comments about Canada being a middle power who was good at convening others, Mélanie Joly had a conversation with Janice Stein of the Munk School of Global Affairs yesterday that generated a number of pieces. In it, Joly acknowledged that the Canadian Forces need to be better-equipped, which tends to spiral into the trap of taking the NATO two-percent goal seriously (when it’s a terrible measure). But she’s not wrong about the equipment, as the pivot from Cold War tactics to fighting the Taliban has left the Canadian Forces largely under-equipped for the kind of situation facing Ukraine right now. As well, she praised the role American intelligence has played in helping Ukraine to thwart the Russian advance, and in uniting the West. Joly also says that she wants to position Canada as a leader in combatting propaganda and disinformation starting with social media, which is going to be a very big fight if the way that the conversations around amending the Broadcasting Act last year were any indication.

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Roundup: A middle power and a convenor

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We are on day twenty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the shelling and air strikes against civilian targets continue—an apartment building in Kyiv, a theatre where children were sheltering in Mariupol. Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the US Congress yesterday, invoking Pearl Harbour and 9/11 as part of his demand to close the sky” (which isn’t going to happen), and added that if America can’t do that, then to at least give Ukraine the planes so they can do it themselves. That was obviously a demand he couldn’t make of Canada (no, seriously—third-hand CF-18s would not be of much use to them), so we’ll see if that gets him any further aid from the US—hours after his address, Joe Biden signed an order authorising another $800 million worth of lethal aid, including anti-aircraft systems, so that presentation may have done its job.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1504186533791870984

Meanwhile, closer to home, Mélanie Joly’s comments that Canada isn’t a military power, but a middle power whose strength is convening to make sure diplomacy happens and convincing other countries to do more is rubbing a bunch of former military leaders the wrong way. We do contribute militarily, oftentimes more so than other allies who meet the stated NATO spending targets (which is one more reason why those targets are not a great measurement of anything), though our ability to do more is being constrained. That’s one reason why I’m getting mighty tired of the number of articles and op-eds over the last few days calling for more spending, while none of them address the current capacity constraints, particularly around recruiting.

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Roundup: A strategic turning point?

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We are in day seventeen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the bombardment and shelling has intensified not only in Mariupol, but some other cities that have thus far been unaffected. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have achieved a strategic turning point, that they have lasted four times longer than Russia planned for them to, and asked his people for strength and patience. There are also concerns that Russians are targeting ports and grain silos, which could have a major impact on food supplies in the region as the crisis grows. In the meantime, the BBC has a chilling report out of Kharkiv, and it’s a bit grisly because of the number of Russian corpses just lying there.

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1502000265490227206

Justin Trudeau concluded his European trip, and announced yet more sanctions against Russian oligarchs including Roman Abramovich, who has interests in a steel company that has operations in Canada, so these sanctions could affect its operations.

Closer to home, Anita Anand addressed the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence yesterday, and spoke about a “robust package” to modernise NORAD, and said that they have not forgotten about the threats posed by China while the world is focused on Ukraine. At the same conference, a senior CSIS official spoke about the vulnerability posed by cyberspace, which is why they are focusing on protecting critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks.

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QP: Bland assurances about Arctic sovereignty

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For Thursday, neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, nor were most of the the other leaders, save one. Luc Berthold led off, with a script but without a mini-lectern, and in French, he worried about the disinformation circulating about the invasion of Ukraine, but wedged this into a question about expelling the Russian ambassador. Anita Anand rose, not to answer but to recognise the presence of Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in the gallery, which was against the rules—which the Speaker reminded her of—before Anand made a bland statement. Berthold worried about the state of our military’s readiness should Putin carry on, and Anand assured him that of course we are ready and that nothing has been neglected, before she read out what new lethal aid was provided to Ukraine this morning. Raquel Dancho took over in English to again demand to know what meetings she has had to prepare for Russian threats of retaliation. Anand assured her that they were prepared for any eventuality, and mentioned working with American counterparts to modernise NORAD as a priority. Dancho worried that we did not have sufficient military assets in the Arctic, and wanted further reassurances, and Anand repeated her reassurances before saying that we need to be non-provocative and rational in this situation. Berthold took back over to repeat the question about what we are doing about deterrence to keep Russia from invading the Arctic. Anand repeated that we would work with the US, and stated that the Coast Guard would defend us.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and worried that the government’s emergency travel documents for Ukrainian refugees would take too long, and Anand read that what was announced today would reduce red tape and would hasten passage for Ukrainians, and there was no limit to how many were would take in. Normandin stated the need for an emergency airlift operation, and Anand spoke about more measures for these refugees but did not commit to an airlift.

Jagmeet Singh led for the NDP, in person, and demanded more sanctions against more Russian oligarchs, to which Anand, after some hesitation, listed those already under sanction and said that they were working with allies to impose yet more sanctions. Singh repeated the question in French, and Anand repeated her response in French.

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Roundup: Using the invasion of Ukraine for crass domestic gain

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We are now on day seven of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv still stands, in spite of the convoy of Russian vehicles headed in its direction. Russians bombed Kyiv’s main television tower, as well as a Holocaust cemetery, which really bolster’s Putin’s claim that he is trying to “de-Nazify” the country. In fact, Russia is bombing more cities and inflicting more damage, and killing more civilians, which led to a response by the International Criminal Court to indict Putin for war crimes. Oh, and to compound the humanitarian crisis, some of Ukraine’s neighbours aren’t accepting non-white refugees who were in Ukraine, which is a big problem.

Here in Canada, yet more incremental sanctions were announced, along with more aid and supplies being sent, and new measures include ships that are of Russian origin or registry being denied entry into Canadian waters. Chrystia Freeland is warning that more severe sanctions will hurt Canadians as well, which people keep forgetting is a reason why sanctions can be so tough to implement, but here we are.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are making a number of demands which are not necessarily reasonable, such as their continued insistence that the Russian Ambassador be expelled, and the recall of our Ambassador in Moscow. Expelling ambassadors should be the absolute last case situation, because we need channels to talk, especially when the going gets tough. It was more justified with the Iranians because they were running an intimidation ring from their embassy, which does not appear to be the case with the Russians. The fundamental problem is that the Conservatives have adopted this mindset where they treat diplomacy as a cookie you get for good behaviour, which is not the point of diplomacy. That’s why we have diplomacy—to do the hard stuff, and you can’t do that if you keep kicking out opposing ambassadors every time you get in a huff about something. It’s poor practice, and is frankly a specious understanding of how the world works. Even more to the point, their continued insistence that this crisis is a good idea to push their “ethical oil” nonsense and to make the case for “drill, baby, drill,” no matter that it is a literal impossibility to meet Europe’s energy needs any time before the end of the decade, by which point we should be into rapid decarbonisation. But they have narratives that they are wedded to, no matter how crass or inappropriate, and they’re going to stick with them.

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QP: Repeating the same Ukraine questions once again

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The prime minister was present for QP today, as was his deputy, so we would see how the questions about the war in Ukraine would shape up with him in the room. They weren’t much improved—or different for that matter. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador and to recall ours from Moscow, because they seem to believe that diplomacy is a cookie for good behaviour, which it absolutely is not. Justin Trudeau said that the foreign minister had summoned the Russian Ambassador to be admonished, but that they were keeping all tools on the table, which one assumes includes diplomacy. Bergen then demanded visa-free travel to Canada for Ukrainian refugees, for which Trudeau read that they have bolstered capacity and priorities Ukrainian applications. Bergen then stated that the longer Canadian oil and gas stays in the ground, the more Putin wins, and demanded a policy of drilling. Trudeau noted their supports for Alberta, their support for the Trans Mountain expansion, and that they were working toward a cleaner future. Bergen then pivoted to the Emergencies Act invocation, and insisted that the only used it for political reasons, for which Trudeau read that law enforcement found it essential, and accused the Conservatives of being unable to pick a lane. Bergen then demanded that all federal vaccine mandates be lifted and accused the government of “dragging their knuckles” because vaccine mandates are “so yesterday.” Trudeau reminded her that they base their decisions based on science.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc and wanted to ensure that sanctions would remain in place until the last Russian soldier was out of Ukraine, and Trudeau largely agreed with the notion. Blanchet then worried about the rhetoric of using the war in Ukraine as a propaganda tool for western Canadian oil and gas, for which Trudeau noted that while Canada imports negligible amounts of Russian oil and gas, they need to work with Europe to end their dependence on it, talking about a clean energy future.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video in French to ask about sanctions on Belarus, for which Trudeau reminded him that they already imposed them for their complicity in the invasion of Ukraine, and that they were looking at future ones. Singh switched to English to demand a barrier-free process for Ukrainians seeking refuge in Canada, and Trudeau note that they have been preparing this for a month now.

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Roundup: More sanctions, more pressure on allies

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Day three of fighting in Ukraine, and Russian forces have not overtaken the country, as they perhaps thought they would have by now. Prime minister Justin Trudeau announced yet another round of sanctions that both targeted Putin and his inner circle personally, but also took aim at Belarus and its president, as Russia transited through that country as part of the invasion, and seeks to hurt Russia’s allies. Trudeau also openly said that Canada is calling on its allies to have Russia removed from the SWIFT system, which seems to me to put pressure on those European holdouts. On top of that, the government announced more special immigration measures for Ukrainians, that Canada was preparing to move another 3400 troops to shore up NATO operations upon request, and matching donations to the Red Cross for their Ukrainian relief efforts. Oh, and sub-nationally, a number of provinces with publicly-owned liquor stores announced that they were pulling Russian products from their shelves (but it’s the LCBO that will make this hurt for Russia, as it is the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world).

The thing that Canada and NATO will not be doing is enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, no matter how much Ukraine asks for it, because this would involve shooting down Russian aircraft, and that would essentially be declaring war, and then it’s the big time. Nobody wants that—especially not that Putin has nuclear weapons. And no matter how many times reporters ask about it, the answer is the same: no. (In my next YouTube episode, Steve Saideman and I discuss this very issue, which will be available for Patreon subscribers on Sunday).

In the meantime, there are some wild stories coming out of Ukraine—the 13 border guards on Snake Island who told the Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” before they were shelled; the woman confronting a Russian soldier and giving him sunflower seeds so that they’ll grow from his corpse when he’s buried; and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy filming himself and top officials in the streets and that they are determined to stay put, showing that the disinformation that he has fled the country is not true.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235

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Roundup: Reaction to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine

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Russian forces have been advancing in Ukraine, but not without opposition. Shelling continues against several Ukrainian cities and into Kyiv itself, as people are taking shelter in the metro. Closer to home, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced another round of tougher sanctions against Russian oligarchs and other key leaders, and there is talk that yet more sanctions are on the way, but it also sounds like there is some difficulty in getting all of our allies on-side, and the thing about these kinds of sanctions is that everyone needs to do them so that there aren’t loopholes that Russia can slip through. (Trudeau also announced measures to help Canadians in Ukraine get safe passage to neighbouring countries, as well as expeditated immigration processing for Ukrainians).

But one of the biggest measures—cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global financial transaction system—has not yet been implemented because Europeans are balking (though Canada has reportedly been pushing for this, along with the UK). Canada is somewhat fortunate because we are less exposed to Russian trade and money than other allies, but it’s that exposure which will make sanctions harder on Western allies the tougher they are on Russia—and that’s something that a lot of the talking heads can’t seem to get their heads around. If you look at what European countries are trying to get carve-outs for, it’s because they don’t want to lose the Russian money in their economies. And that’s a tough pill to swallow, especially as all of our economies are still recovering from the pandemic recession.

https://twitter.com/LillyResearch/status/1496964138962386945

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374

Where this will hurt us especially is higher world oil prices, as cutting Russia out of the market will further restrict supply at a time where energy shortages in certain countries have turned to oil to fill that gap, creating demand and limiting supply. That will mean higher gasoline prices in Canada, and while these higher prices will be good for the Alberta economy (oh, look—one more boom for them to piss away), it’s going to be felt in the inflation data, which will have more people lighting their hair on fire, demanding Something Must Be Done, but they won’t come out and spell out that they mean wage and price controls, or a new NEP. Jason Kenney, unable to read the room, is trying to make this about a new pitch for Alberta’s so-called Ethical Oil™, and we have federal Conservatives demanding a fast-tracked LNG infrastructure to export to Europe, but seriously, that’s a multi-year and multi-billion-dollar investment that is going to be short-lived the fast were decarbonise our economies.

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Roundup: Police action underway, and the occupation thins

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On day twenty-two of the Grifter Occupation, the police closed their net. With all of the access routes to downtown Ottawa cut off with over 100 checkpoints, no grievance tourists were getting in for the weekend. Then, starting at Nicholas street, the combined police forces started pushing west, gaining ground on the occupiers, arresting over 100 occupiers and towing over 21 vehicles (though I’m not quite sure what the total was by the end of the day). The advance had been halted near the Chateau Laurier for most of the evening, but police have said that this would be going twenty-four hours a day, and while they can rotate in shifts, the occupiers can’t really, so we’ll see how far they have advanced in the morning when this goes live. Once the action started happening, other trucks that had been parked along Wellington started to get the message that this is real, that their organizers have all been arrested or fled the scene, and that their best bet is to leave while they still can. And so, a number of them did do just that—being stopped by the police on the way out to be given a ticket, but then sent on their way. But the hard-core elements are still there, and there were parents who put their children in the way of police as human shields yesterday, which is a Problem.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1494795721094086659

To add to that, disinformation was going around, spread by certain less than scrupulous media figures in this country and picked up and amplified by Fox News personalities, claiming that a woman was trampled to death by a police horse (untrue, though occupiers did throw a bicycle at one horse to try to trip it up). Even more egregious were the declarations among right-wing media that this was somehow Canada’s Tiananmen Square, which is utterly boggling. Police haven’t even approached the level of violence if this were a homeless encampment in a park. They have been exceedingly careful with this whole affair (sparking yet more discussion of double standards and white supremacy), but it the fact that they are trying to make this comparison, and that Stockwell Day of all people was screaming this over Twitter, is just unbelievable, but considering that these people seem to think that Justin Trudeau is worse than Hitler (no, seriously), you see how completely unhinged their world view is.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1494851024376541187

And then there were the Conservatives, who were tweeting up a storm today to disapprove of what has taken place, expressing their “sadness” at the police action taking place, decrying the use of emergency powers, and blaming the prime minister for not meeting these extremists or capitulating to their demands. More to the point, they are trying to foist this narrative that Trudeau is being “divisive” (along with “stigmatized and traumatized Canadians”) because he *gasp!* clocked these extremists for who they were and called them out. You call out extremists—you don’t coddle them or offer them succour. But the Conservatives are so willing to go to bat for these kinds of people in the hopes that they will get something out of it in the end, which they never will. Once the Overton window has been shifted, the extremists still won’t vote for the Conservatives, and the terms of debate will be worse than when they started. They just refuse to see this happening all around them. What’s worse are the right-leaning white male columnists who are also going to bat for these people, and buying into the “Trudeau is being divisive” narrative, no matter how it’s nothing more than bullshit.

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Roundup: Arrests begun as overwrought debate underway

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Debate on the emergency orders began yesterday with all of the leaders staking out their positions. And I will note that there is a legitimate argument from the Conservatives that the Emergencies Act shouldn’t have been invoked—but then they take argument that Trudeau didn’t do enough beforehand to deal with the situation, never mind that the Ottawa Police are the police of jurisdiction, that Doug Ford did virtually nothing to help never mind that this was well within his jurisdictional purview, and of course, they argue that Trudeau caused this by being mean to the extremists who organised this whole thing, and that he hasn’t capitulated to their demands. And thus, a good point is lost in the fog of utterly dishonest partisan posturing. It should also be noted that civil liberties groups are going to court to oppose the Act’s imposition, but their otherwise valid points are divorced from the reality that this is not a peaceful or legal protest—it’s an event organized by anti-government extremists. This is not a good faith protest, it’s an illegal occupation, and that colours events.

With this in mind, the House of Commons will be sitting all weekend in order to debate the emergency order the fact that they will be sitting almost entirely around the clock over the long weekend means that they have speaking slots for virtually every single MP, which is egregious and overkill. If anything, it’s the height of parliamentary narcissism. Yes, this is an unprecedented action, but you do not need every single MP to stand up and read a prepared speech that parrots the talking points that their party leader has decided upon. That’s not debate, it’s not edifying, and it’s just an exercise in providing clips for MPs’ websites and social media channels. It defeats the purpose of what Parliament is about, and debases the point of debate (not to mention that everyone is already burned out from the past three weeks of insanity and this robs the employees, staffers and most especially the interpreters of the long weekend that they all needed). If they haven’t made up their minds on the imposition of the emergency orders by end of day tomorrow, then maybe public life isn’t for them.

Update: Sittings in both Chambers were cancelled due to the ongoing police action, so we’ll see when they resume. The point stands, however.

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