Tag Archives: Public Health

Roundup: More sanctions, more pressure on allies

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Day three of fighting in Ukraine, and Russian forces have not overtaken the country, as they perhaps thought they would have by now. Prime minister Justin Trudeau announced yet another round of sanctions that both targeted Putin and his inner circle personally, but also took aim at Belarus and its president, as Russia transited through that country as part of the invasion, and seeks to hurt Russia’s allies. Trudeau also openly said that Canada is calling on its allies to have Russia removed from the SWIFT system, which seems to me to put pressure on those European holdouts. On top of that, the government announced more special immigration measures for Ukrainians, that Canada was preparing to move another 3400 troops to shore up NATO operations upon request, and matching donations to the Red Cross for their Ukrainian relief efforts. Oh, and sub-nationally, a number of provinces with publicly-owned liquor stores announced that they were pulling Russian products from their shelves (but it’s the LCBO that will make this hurt for Russia, as it is the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world).

The thing that Canada and NATO will not be doing is enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, no matter how much Ukraine asks for it, because this would involve shooting down Russian aircraft, and that would essentially be declaring war, and then it’s the big time. Nobody wants that—especially not that Putin has nuclear weapons. And no matter how many times reporters ask about it, the answer is the same: no. (In my next YouTube episode, Steve Saideman and I discuss this very issue, which will be available for Patreon subscribers on Sunday).

In the meantime, there are some wild stories coming out of Ukraine—the 13 border guards on Snake Island who told the Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” before they were shelled; the woman confronting a Russian soldier and giving him sunflower seeds so that they’ll grow from his corpse when he’s buried; and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy filming himself and top officials in the streets and that they are determined to stay put, showing that the disinformation that he has fled the country is not true.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235

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Roundup: Reaction to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine

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Russian forces have been advancing in Ukraine, but not without opposition. Shelling continues against several Ukrainian cities and into Kyiv itself, as people are taking shelter in the metro. Closer to home, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced another round of tougher sanctions against Russian oligarchs and other key leaders, and there is talk that yet more sanctions are on the way, but it also sounds like there is some difficulty in getting all of our allies on-side, and the thing about these kinds of sanctions is that everyone needs to do them so that there aren’t loopholes that Russia can slip through. (Trudeau also announced measures to help Canadians in Ukraine get safe passage to neighbouring countries, as well as expeditated immigration processing for Ukrainians).

But one of the biggest measures—cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global financial transaction system—has not yet been implemented because Europeans are balking (though Canada has reportedly been pushing for this, along with the UK). Canada is somewhat fortunate because we are less exposed to Russian trade and money than other allies, but it’s that exposure which will make sanctions harder on Western allies the tougher they are on Russia—and that’s something that a lot of the talking heads can’t seem to get their heads around. If you look at what European countries are trying to get carve-outs for, it’s because they don’t want to lose the Russian money in their economies. And that’s a tough pill to swallow, especially as all of our economies are still recovering from the pandemic recession.

https://twitter.com/LillyResearch/status/1496964138962386945

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374

Where this will hurt us especially is higher world oil prices, as cutting Russia out of the market will further restrict supply at a time where energy shortages in certain countries have turned to oil to fill that gap, creating demand and limiting supply. That will mean higher gasoline prices in Canada, and while these higher prices will be good for the Alberta economy (oh, look—one more boom for them to piss away), it’s going to be felt in the inflation data, which will have more people lighting their hair on fire, demanding Something Must Be Done, but they won’t come out and spell out that they mean wage and price controls, or a new NEP. Jason Kenney, unable to read the room, is trying to make this about a new pitch for Alberta’s so-called Ethical Oil™, and we have federal Conservatives demanding a fast-tracked LNG infrastructure to export to Europe, but seriously, that’s a multi-year and multi-billion-dollar investment that is going to be short-lived the fast were decarbonise our economies.

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Roundup: Police action underway, and the occupation thins

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On day twenty-two of the Grifter Occupation, the police closed their net. With all of the access routes to downtown Ottawa cut off with over 100 checkpoints, no grievance tourists were getting in for the weekend. Then, starting at Nicholas street, the combined police forces started pushing west, gaining ground on the occupiers, arresting over 100 occupiers and towing over 21 vehicles (though I’m not quite sure what the total was by the end of the day). The advance had been halted near the Chateau Laurier for most of the evening, but police have said that this would be going twenty-four hours a day, and while they can rotate in shifts, the occupiers can’t really, so we’ll see how far they have advanced in the morning when this goes live. Once the action started happening, other trucks that had been parked along Wellington started to get the message that this is real, that their organizers have all been arrested or fled the scene, and that their best bet is to leave while they still can. And so, a number of them did do just that—being stopped by the police on the way out to be given a ticket, but then sent on their way. But the hard-core elements are still there, and there were parents who put their children in the way of police as human shields yesterday, which is a Problem.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1494795721094086659

To add to that, disinformation was going around, spread by certain less than scrupulous media figures in this country and picked up and amplified by Fox News personalities, claiming that a woman was trampled to death by a police horse (untrue, though occupiers did throw a bicycle at one horse to try to trip it up). Even more egregious were the declarations among right-wing media that this was somehow Canada’s Tiananmen Square, which is utterly boggling. Police haven’t even approached the level of violence if this were a homeless encampment in a park. They have been exceedingly careful with this whole affair (sparking yet more discussion of double standards and white supremacy), but it the fact that they are trying to make this comparison, and that Stockwell Day of all people was screaming this over Twitter, is just unbelievable, but considering that these people seem to think that Justin Trudeau is worse than Hitler (no, seriously), you see how completely unhinged their world view is.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1494851024376541187

And then there were the Conservatives, who were tweeting up a storm today to disapprove of what has taken place, expressing their “sadness” at the police action taking place, decrying the use of emergency powers, and blaming the prime minister for not meeting these extremists or capitulating to their demands. More to the point, they are trying to foist this narrative that Trudeau is being “divisive” (along with “stigmatized and traumatized Canadians”) because he *gasp!* clocked these extremists for who they were and called them out. You call out extremists—you don’t coddle them or offer them succour. But the Conservatives are so willing to go to bat for these kinds of people in the hopes that they will get something out of it in the end, which they never will. Once the Overton window has been shifted, the extremists still won’t vote for the Conservatives, and the terms of debate will be worse than when they started. They just refuse to see this happening all around them. What’s worse are the right-leaning white male columnists who are also going to bat for these people, and buying into the “Trudeau is being divisive” narrative, no matter how it’s nothing more than bullshit.

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Roundup: Arrests begun as overwrought debate underway

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Debate on the emergency orders began yesterday with all of the leaders staking out their positions. And I will note that there is a legitimate argument from the Conservatives that the Emergencies Act shouldn’t have been invoked—but then they take argument that Trudeau didn’t do enough beforehand to deal with the situation, never mind that the Ottawa Police are the police of jurisdiction, that Doug Ford did virtually nothing to help never mind that this was well within his jurisdictional purview, and of course, they argue that Trudeau caused this by being mean to the extremists who organised this whole thing, and that he hasn’t capitulated to their demands. And thus, a good point is lost in the fog of utterly dishonest partisan posturing. It should also be noted that civil liberties groups are going to court to oppose the Act’s imposition, but their otherwise valid points are divorced from the reality that this is not a peaceful or legal protest—it’s an event organized by anti-government extremists. This is not a good faith protest, it’s an illegal occupation, and that colours events.

With this in mind, the House of Commons will be sitting all weekend in order to debate the emergency order the fact that they will be sitting almost entirely around the clock over the long weekend means that they have speaking slots for virtually every single MP, which is egregious and overkill. If anything, it’s the height of parliamentary narcissism. Yes, this is an unprecedented action, but you do not need every single MP to stand up and read a prepared speech that parrots the talking points that their party leader has decided upon. That’s not debate, it’s not edifying, and it’s just an exercise in providing clips for MPs’ websites and social media channels. It defeats the purpose of what Parliament is about, and debases the point of debate (not to mention that everyone is already burned out from the past three weeks of insanity and this robs the employees, staffers and most especially the interpreters of the long weekend that they all needed). If they haven’t made up their minds on the imposition of the emergency orders by end of day tomorrow, then maybe public life isn’t for them.

Update: Sittings in both Chambers were cancelled due to the ongoing police action, so we’ll see when they resume. The point stands, however.

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Roundup: Complacency versus the hard work of democracy

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Things are fraught in Ottawa, tempers are short. A lot of stuff that has been barely under the surface is blowing up. David Reevely has some thoughts about where we find ourselves, and why, and he’s pretty dead-on about it.

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Roundup: Exit the police chief

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It never rains, but it pours, and yesterday the twist in the plot was that the police chief suddenly resigned his position. And while the immediate thought was that hey, someone is actually taking responsibility for their failure, it turns out that no, this was a “human resources issue,” likely related to bullying, harassment, and volatile behaviour around senior police leadership the longer this occupation drags on. And now we have an acting police chief at a time when the Ottawa Police Service is the police of jurisdiction during a crisis situation and under the aegis of the Emergencies Act, coordinating with the OPP and RCMP.

The other plot twist was that the mayor’s contact for his “backchannel negotiations” with the occupier leadership was Dean French, the lacrosse-loving chaos agent who used to be Doug Ford’s chief of staff. Mayor Watson said that French approached him about making contact, and Watson figured “anything to help,” rather than seeing the giant red flag and telling French to take a hike and never come back. So yeah, it’s like everyone is making the worst possible decisions, or we keep invoking Tucker’s Law.

Emergencies Act

Because we are still trying to sort out what all is happening around the invocation of the Act, here are some explainers from Naomi Claire Lazar and Lyle Skinner. As well, some observations about how it is being employed by the government, law professor Paul Daly has questions about some of the legal language.

The actual orders weren’t finally posted until 9 PM last week, which is when the rules actually went into effect, so good job on your timeliness there, guys. We now know that they are using the thread of political violence as their test for what meets the Act’s threshold, essentially calling it terrorism, which then raises the question of how this meets that particular threshold. The orders prohibit bringing food, fuel or children to the protest site, under threat of a $5000 fine or up to five years in prison—but we’ll see if police actually enforce that, as they have not been around the fuel convoy to the site.

As for the financial provisions brought into force, there are concerns that they could be a serious overreach, particularly if it affects an occupier’s ability to obtain financial services ever again. The occupiers, meanwhile, are trying to pivot to cryptocurrency, as though that will put them beyond the reach of government. (It won’t).

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QP: Platitudes about new tools for police

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With the Emergencies Act having been invoked, the prime minister was present in the Chamber today, as were most other leaders, which was good, because an exercise of emergency powers requires scrutiny. I’m not sure that’s what we got today. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, worrying about the Emergencies Act declaration, and wondered if the motion would not be bought before the Chamber until Friday, before the break week—which was a valid, if perhaps overly dramatic, concern. Justin Trudeau gave prepared remarks on the consultations with provinces and the time-limited nature of the declaration, but didn’t answer the question. Bergen noted that before she noted that the blockades in Coutts and Windsor cleared without this declaration, and concern trolled that the declaration would make the situation worse. Trudeau stated that this was a time for responsible leadership rather than the Conservatives encouraging these blockades. Bergen insisted that this was about an “ideological” desire to keep COVID measures in place, and pretended that this was against “science.” Trudeau repeated his points, this time naming individual MPs for encouraging these actions to continue. Gérard Deltell took over in French, and worried that half of the premiers were against the declaration and that this poured oiled on the fire, and Trudeau insisted this was about additional tools that the police of jurisdiction could use. Deltell repeated his concerns, and Trudeau insisted that these were “responsible steps” to keep the streets clear of illegal demonstrations. 

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and noted the situations resolved without the need for the Act, but worried that the declaration did not specify the geographic location it was to be imposed and wanted assurances it would not be applied in Quebec. Trudeau assured him the tools were only available if requested by local police. Blanchet gave a paranoid suggestion this was about imposing legislation on Quebec against their will, to which Trudeau repeated his points about local police.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video for the NDP, and he decried the double standard of treatment of this occupation and worried about reports of police and military participation, and wanted assurances the measures would be used “for people” and not to support the occupation. Trudeau repeated about providing tools for police to give people their streets back. In French, Singh raised the weapons found in Coutts before repeating Blanchet’s demand not to apply it in Quebec, and Trudeau again insisted they would not impose anything where it was not needed by local police. 

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QP: In the shadow of the Emergencies Act

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While talk of the imminent imposition of the Emergencies Act swirled, the prime minister was in his office but not in the Chamber for QP. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and quoted Section 16 of the Emergencies Act to ask if he considers the blockades a threat to national security, to which Marco Mendicino quoted the arrests on Coutts this morning for weapons before listing supports the federal government provided to end the blockades. Bergen demanded the government agree with their Supply Day motion to capitulate to the occupiers, and Bill Blair railed about the illegal occupations. Bergen called capitulation “not unreasonable,” and demanded “hope and optimism” for Canadians. Mark Holland said that the Conservatives squandered all attempts at de-escalation, citing their various MPs who have supported it. Luc Berthold took over in French, and repeated the “division and stigmatisation” line before wondering how the government could possibly consider emergency measures. Mendicino repeated his previous answer. Berthold said that nobody wanted to see the army in the streets before demanding capitulation, and Holland repeated his condemnation of irresponsible Conservative statements in support of the occupations.

For the Bloc, Alain Therrien wanted to know how the prime minister planned to use emergency powers, and demanded a detailed plan today. Mendicino read about the support the federal government has offered. Therrien was not satisfied, but Mendicino simply repeated his response.

Peter Julian led for the NDP, and wondered why the prime minister didn’t “show leadership” 18 days ago—as though there were federal powers he could deploy (there weren’t). Bill Blair denounced the occupations and blockades, and stated that they did provide support where requested. Alexandre Boulerice took over in French to lament the same, and Mendicino repeated the script about supports given.

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Roundup: Ford wakes up after letting Ottawa suffer

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After being content to let Ottawa suffer under occupation by grifters, extremists and conspiracy theorists for the past two weeks, Doug Ford woke up and got serious now that the Ambassador Bridge is threatened. He declared a state of emergency and promised permanent legislation about blocking critical infrastructure, with fines of up to $100,000 and up to a year imprisonment, but that didn’t seem to help motivate police any. It was an injunction in Windsor that seems to have had more of an impact (and I find the notion that police will enforce an injunction but not uphold the laws on the statute books to be a concerning development with the rule of law). They were promising enforcement, but we’ll see, given that the crowd only grew once the injunction came into effect.

Meanwhile, I find myself a bit at a loss about the demands that Justin Trudeau “show leadership” in this situation. Every time I ask someone just which federal levers he should be deploying, I get static in reply. When pressed on the topic on Power & Politics the other day, Jagmeet Singh flailed and handwaved before resorting to a Jaida Essence Hall and trying to make a bunch of erroneous statements about healthcare funding. Trudeau cannot simply assert authority in this situation—it frankly does not meet the test for the Emergencies Act, and I’m not convinced this is a situation that requires it. I fail to see the utility of trying to get the RCMP to bigfoot the Ottawa Police as a) they don’t have the expertise in this situation, and b) they don’t have the numbers, particularly in the area. He’s not going to call in the military, because that is a very, very bad idea and more to the point, it’s the premier or his attorney general who needs to make the request for the aid to civil power under the National Defence Act. What else should Trudeau be doing? He told the convoy to go home on the first Monday (meaning, day four) during Question Period and elsewhere (you know, when members of the media accused him of being “in hiding” when he was in COVID isolation and still attending the House of Commons virtually). He’s been making calls the whole time, though not necessarily as performatively as is being demanded. So how else should he be “showing leadership”? What other powers should he be deploying? And even more to the point, why should he be playing into the trap that Ford and the extremist organizers themselves are laying out for him that is trying to put him at the centre of this?

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Roundup: From one rebel to another

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With all of the tongue-wagging in Parliament over Joël Lightbound going rogue in his dissent on vaccine mandates, there have been a lot of questions about his place in caucus, and what the other caucus “rebels” think of the situation. So, the most famous of said rebels, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, tweeted a thoughtful thread on the subject.

Meanwhile, a third Liberal was thought to be joining Lightbound and Yves Robillard in their dissent, but it turns out that no, that they merely misrepresented Anthony Housefather’s position. So there’s that.

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