Roundup: Deficit is coming in lower than expected

It is on or about day ninety-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces are claiming that they have captured a rail hub in Donestk, while they continue to pound Severodonetsk, with some 90 percent of the city’s buildings damaged. Ukrainians are calling for Western allies to deliver weapons faster, though there is talk that it looks like this aggressive push by Russia has depleted their arsenal.

The invasion is also not accidental in terms of location or timing—the eastern part of the country are a trove of natural gas and critical minerals, and when Russia invaded, it cut off Ukraine’s exploration of natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, which could have been used to help wean Europe off of Russian oil and gas. Because aren’t all wars really about resources?

Closer to home, the Fiscal Monitor was released, and the deficit figure is coming in much lower than anticipated, because in large part the economy is overheated which is generating a lot of revenue (and inflation does help in terms of collecting higher taxes on higher prices). But as Kevin Milligan points out, this means that the obsession by the Conservatives with the deficit is becoming really misplaced—the massive spending in 2020 to get us through the pandemic is behind us, and we’re not in that situation anymore. Not that facts matter—this is really an exercise in people’s feelings about the deficit, and the perceptions that are not grounded in facts.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1530246817589252098

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1530247609792663552

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1530248376364593153

Continue reading

Roundup: Cancelled committees because of the human toll of hybrid sittings

It is now approximately day ninety-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have shelled more than 40 towns and villages in the Donbas region, while they try to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. It also sounds like Russia has lifted the age restriction for voluntary military service, which gives you a hint that they need more troops because the invasion has not gone well for them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is asking Western allies for rocket systems to repel Russian forces from the Donbas, before the cities and towns in the area become “uninhabited.”

Closer to home, it looks like the realities of the finite resource of Parliament are finally starting to hit for MPs and senators, and more and more committee meetings are being cancelled as there simply aren’t enough interpreters to go around, exacerbated by late-night sittings, and more than anything, the fact that they keep finding excuses to extend hybrid sittings no matter that they know full well that the use of Zoom is causing injuries to the interpreters, and most of them know that they can’t simply hire more as there are no more to hire. They literally cannot graduate enough to replace the ones who are retiring or whose injuries are forcing them from the workplace (especially as they risk permanent hearing loss). And MPs simply don’t care. Worse, they passed a motion last week to create yet another special committee, as if they had the resources to do so. Because they don’t care. It’s all about show, whether that’s the Liberals and NDP patting themselves on the back for being “good examples” of working from home, or the Conservatives’ constant filibustering and wasting of time that drags out proceedings, which taxes the interpreters even further (and isn’t helped by the fact that they refuse to wear masks in the Chamber).

I’ve stated this before, and I’ll keep saying this—it is morally reprehensible for MPs and senators to keep demanding hybrid sittings when they know the human cost it takes on the interpreters. They could easily organize themselves in safer ways to have in-person meetings, which won’t strain the interpreters, and that they could have something that resembles normal operations as a result, but they refuse, because too many of them have grown to like the hybrid sittings, so that they don’t have to travel. Who cares if a human being is suffering injuries and facing the possibility of permanent hearing loss? That MP doesn’t have to travel, so that’s what counts. It’s absolutely unconscionable, and they should be shamed for it.

Continue reading

QP: Tough on Black and Indigenous people

In between events with the Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall, the prime minister was present in QP, as were all other leaders. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she declared that the stated reason for invoking the Emergencies Act was “falling apart” as the interim Ottawa police chief said he did not request it, and she insisted there was a cover-up. Justin Trudeau quoted another witness at the committee who praised the efficacy of the measures. Bergen blamed Trudeau for the blockade with a litany of dubious accusations, and Trudeau retorted that the opposition doesn’t want light shed into their role in prolonging the occupation. Bergen insisted this was “misinformation” before she pivoted the complaining about airport delays and demanded a return to “pre-COVID normal.” Trudeau reminded her that COVID is not over, and that they are identifying ways to help bottlenecks. Bergen started ranting that Trudeau got to go maskless in other countries while Canadians are tired of doing everything being asked of them (erm, which they haven’t been). Trudeau again reiterated that they are following the science. Bergen then launched into a tirade about COVID measures affecting youth, and Trudeau somehow hating youth, and Trudeau listed all of the help they gave young Canadians over the course of the pandemic.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he gave a bizarre rant about the “British monarchy” and the Anglican Church, and demanded to know how much this would cost. Trudeau, bemused, said that Ottawa must really be delivering for Quebec if the Bloc had to dig to reach this. Blanchet continued to complained that royal tours cost money, and Trudeau took the opportunity to praise our system and its stability at a time when democracy is under threat around the world.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, noted the inflation headline number, and repeated yesterday’s demand to cut oil and gas subsidies and to give that money to people in a GST rebate. Trudeau listed that they have been cutting subsidies, that they are going “line by line” on emissions cuts, and that they have affordability measures. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same reply.

Continue reading

QP: Gathering outrage clips about gas prices

The prime minister was away in meetings, but his deputy was present, so that was something, though no other leader was present either. Luc Berthold led off in French, and he proclaimed that masks came off in Quebec, but pivoted this toward a question on gas prices and inflation, demanding a break be given to people. Chrystia Freeland recited that they sympathised with the families, which was why they had measures in the budget like dental care. Berthold railed that the Liberals liked high prices, and invited Freeland to join him at a gas station. Freeland reminded him that Canadians are smart and know this is a global issue, caused by Putin’s war in Ukraine. Berthold then raised Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada ruling and the invitation to bring forward new legislation around extreme intoxication. David Lametti got up to read that they are closely studying the ruling, and specified that Friday’s ruling does not apply to most cases where intoxication is a factor. Karen Vecchio took over in English and read a hugely torqued reading of the decision and demanded action, and Lametti read the English version of the same response. Vecchio carried on building a moral panic around the ruling, and Lametti reiterated that the ruling came out on Friday, so they wanted to examine their options.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he complained that a number of Liberal MPs attended a protest in Quebec against the province’s proposed (draconian) language laws, to which Pablo Rodriguez said that Liberal MPs were not handcuffed, and the government had their own official languages legislation. Therrien was outraged by this, and Rodriguez continued to needle him that Liberal MPs were no less Quebeckers than Bloc MPs. 

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, he railed that gas prices were increasing while the government subsidised the fossil fuel sector, hitting Canadians twice. Freeland replied that they were phasing out those subsidies, and carbon capture was part of the way forward. Rachel Blaney appeared by video to repeat the question in English, and Freeland reiterated her points, with some added emphasis on the efficacy of carbon prices.

Continue reading

QP: Border crossings and gun control

Even though the prime minister was mere steps away, concluding a press conference with this Latvian counterpart, he was not in the Chamber for QP today, though his deputy was, and most of the other leader didn’t bother to show up either. Luc Berthold led off in French, and he worried about Roxham Road, accusing the prime minister of creating a “gap” in the safe third country agreement, and he echoed François Legault’s demand to suspend the agreement and close the crossing. Chrystia Freeland read that they respect the immigration system, and that they work closely with the Americans on the shared border including with the agreement. Berthold then pivoted to gang violence in Montreal (and for a moment, it sounded like he was drawing a comparison because it was such a clumsy transition), and Freeland agreed with him that as a member from a big city, there is a problem with firearms, which was why the government was taking steps to limit them, and invited the Conservatives to support them in that. Berthold insisted that the prime minister was turning a blind eye, and targeting innocent people, and Freeland repeated her same response. John Brassard took over in English to decry gun violence and noted that in one arrest, the accused had been arrested on an unrelated charge 48 hours earlier. Freeland insisted that as a mother of Toronto teenagers, she was well aware of the problem of firearms, which was why they were banning military-style assault rifles. Brassard listed other gun incidents and insisted the prime minister was protecting violent criminals and not families. Freeland assured him that farmers and hunters do not use military-style assault rifles, which is why they were being banned.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he worried about the escalating cost of the Trans Mountain expansion, as it gets another $10 billion (loan guarantee, not actually new funds), and Freeland assured him that they did not intend to be the long-term owners and that it was a responsible investment that created jobs. Therrien bellowed louder on the matter, and Freeland repeated her response.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he worried that oil and gas companies got government money and is now raking in massive profits. Freeland listed efforts on eliminating subsidies and imposing emissions caps. Singh repeated the question in French, and got much the same response.

Continue reading

QP: The person not in charge didn’t make a request

For proto-PMQ day, all of the leaders were present for the first time in a while, so that made for a nice change of pace. Candice Bergen led off, script on her mini-lectern, and she raised the testimony of the RCMP Commissioner at committee, saying she did not request the use of the Emergencies Act, even though she found it helpful. (Note that she would not have been the one to request it because the RCMP was not the police of jurisdiction). Justin Trudeau read a statement about the police needing the tools and that they now had the inquiry to review what happened. Bergen insisted that the use of the Act was an overreach and the prime minister was trying to cover it up. Trudeau dropped the script and extemporaneously stated that the Conservatives seem to be pretty nervous that the inquiry will uncover their complicity in keeping the occupation going. Bergen pivoted to the rising cost of living, or the line-ups at airports and Service Canada office, and tried to paint him as out of touch by pointing out that he doesn’t buy his own groceries or pump his own gas—never mind that as leader of the Official Opposition, she also gets a chef and a driver. Trudeau recited the list of benefits the government has been enriching for people. Luc Berthold took over in French, declared the prime minister to be a “master of disinformation” and decried the invocation of the Emergencies Act. Trudeau read the powers that were needed, and that there was an inquiry underway. Berthold then accused the prime minster of doing nothing about the cost of living and demanded a break on gas taxes, to which Trudeau read that if Conservatives really cared about affordability, they wouldn’t delay the budget implementation bill.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he raised their Supply Day motion yesterday to replace the daily prayer in favour of a moment of daily reflection, insisting that this was related to the “British Monarchy,” and demanded to know how the prime minister would vote on it. Trudeau listed the things that people were more concerned about than this issue. Blanchet tried to pin Trudeau down on it, and he called this out as a desperate attempt to find wedges to exploit.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he raised the price of gasoline before demanding new taxes on oil companies to pay for social programmes. Trudeau reminded him that they already raised taxes on the wealthiest one percent and indexed benefits to inflation, and that the NDP had voted against that at the time. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same answer.

Continue reading

Roundup: The Leaders’ Debate Commission has some suggestions

We are now on or about day seventy-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces are now pummelling the strategic port city of Odessa, especially to disrupt supply lines. This is particularly key for grain shipments, which are already being blocked by the blockade of the Black Sea, and which are going to keep driving up world food prices, and hit areas of food insecurity even harder. It also looks like Russia is increasingly using Soviet-era munitions, which suggests that they are rapidly using up their supply of precision weapons. As for the Ukrainian fighters still in Mariupol, they are appealing to the UN to evacuate their wounded as they did with the civilians beneath in the steel plant there.

Closer to home, the Leaders’ Debate Commission released their report on the 2021 federal election debates, and lo, they concluded that the formats were clumsy and had too many moderators. Gosh, you think? Setting aside the fact that they had pollster Shachi Kurl to moderate the English debate, which was a questionable choice at best, the fact that they had a line-up of journalist co-moderators boils down to the fact that the broadcasters and media outlets who participate insist on having their talent featured as part of their participation, and one has little doubt that they don’t want to participate if they don’t get their way on this, and Kurl was likely the compromise if nobody could get their own talent to be the sole moderator for the event, and lo, in her desire to be tough, she gave François Legault what he had been begging for the entire election, so good job there. (After all, it’s bad enough that the broadcasters have to give up a couple of hours of American programming prime time that they rake in the ad dollars from).

The report also noted the unhappiness with the debate format, but their recommendation of firmer control and “working with stakeholders” is a bit weak. Yes, we need a simplified format, but will the leaders actually play ball with that? The insinuation is that the leaders like the convoluted format because it is easier to draw clips from, and avoids prolonged engagements with other leaders that can draw them into *gasp!* a substantive conversation. And that’s really the rub with this whole thing—it really requires the participation of reluctant broadcasters and reluctant party leaders, and too many compromises get made along the way. I’m not sure what the solution to that winds up being in the end, because the alternatives we saw in 2015, with the myriad of debates and formats, had far less engagement and that’s not good for democracy either.

Continue reading

Roundup: Soon there will be two Victory Days

It is now approximately day seventy-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there was an expectation of some kind of declaration by Russia of general war or similar given that it was Victory Day in that country, but it did not come. Instead, Vladimir Putin framed the invasion as a necessary move to ward off potential aggression by the west and NATO (which, erm, is a defensive alliance). In Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the occasion to reframe Victory Day for Ukrainians, as having defeated Nazism in their country once and they are moving to do so again, and that soon they will have two Victory Days.

Closer to home, we had yet another incident of an MP being on Zoom while in the bathroom, and I just can’t, you guys. This situation was pretty intolerable to begin with, and was only supposed to be for a short duration, but MPs keep extending it, never mind the fact that there can be no moral justification to do so when it endangers the health and safety of the interpretation staff (seriously, they are subjecting themselves to strain that could result in permanent hearing loss), because MPs can’t be arsed to create safe conditions to meet in person, and the government is too busy patting themselves on the back for being good role models for working from home rather than being an example of an institution that created the safe conditions to return to work. And two years later, we still have MPs who can’t be bothered to use their microphones properly, who can’t mute and unmute themselves properly, and who keep bringing their gods damned computers with them to the bathroom.

Enough is enough. It’s time to end hybrid sittings once and for all. There is no justification for it, particularly if you insist that MPs be masked in the Chamber at all times except for when they’re speaking (looking at you, Conservative caucus), and that they can organise themselves to minimise travel or public exposure. Their choice to be selfish and lazy is just that—a choice. And it’s one we should be holding them to account for.

Continue reading

QP: Down the dark path to disinformation

For Wednesday, proto-PMQ day, you would generally expect all of the leaders to be present because they will try to take as much of the spotlight as possible, so imagine my surprise that Candice Bergen was absent yet again today, meaning she has been present less than the PM on the past couple of weeks.

Luc Berthold led off, and he started off on the RCMP memo on the Aga Khan vacation, and he wanted agreement that there is no time limit to crimes. Justin Trudeau read that this was a distraction from their support for the occupation, while they should be focused on things like the war in Ukraine. Berthold insisted that the RCMP should pursue charges in light of “new evidence,” while Trudeau repeated that the Conservatives were focusing on personal attacks instead of what matters to Canadians. Berthold pivoted to federal vaccine mandates and demanded that they be ended, and Trudeau rose to extemporaneously praise Canadians who did the right thing and got vaccinated. Melissa Lantsman worried that unvaccinated international travellers were mixing with people on airplanes so there was no point in keeping up those measures, but Trudeau disputed this, and insisted that measures kept Canadians safe. Lantsman tried to insinuate that the government was being secretive about the evidence they get, but Trudeau disputed the Conservatives’ assertion that Canadians were divided, when they united to getting vaccinated and being there for each other through the pandemic.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded that the federal government turn over immigration authority to Quebec, worrying that they wanted to impose their own targets on the province. Trudeau insisted that they always work with Quebec on their immigration targets and they were willing to help them grow them. Blanchet tried again, and got the same time.

Jagmeet Singh got up for the NDP to demand that the federal government hasn’t done enough to increase access to abortion, and wanted federal funding for contraception. Trudeau recited a paean to a woman’s right to choose. Singh insisted this was about lives and not a political wedge, before he repeated the question in French, and Trudeau listed actions they have taken to claw back funding from New Brunswick for their denying funds for an abortion clinic.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1521922136482492417

Continue reading

QP: An amazing amount of revisionist history

While Justin Trudeau was away at Guy Lafleur’s funeral, none of the other leaders showed up in the House of Commons either, never mind the brewing political storm and promise of some mischief after QP. Luc Berthold led off, and he accused the prime minister of doing nothing about the Ottawa occupation before he pulled out the Emergencies Act, whereas this past weekend, those same “protesters” came back and left, and wondered what was different. Marco Mendicino talked about how police were better prepared, but the measures were needed at the time. Berthold tried to downplay the occupation and insisted that if it wasn’t safe, MPs should not have been able to cross it, and Mendicino talked about how Parliamentarians’ experience was not necessarily that of other residents of the city, and and they looked forward to the inquiry. Berthold tried to be cute and wondered how many people were arrested for sedition in relation to the blockade, and Mendicino waved it off, and said they government would cooperate with the inquiry. John Brassard took over in English, and raised that RCMP memo—ignoring that the memo stated there was no evidence to support a charge—and wanted to know if the prime minister was above the law. Mark Holland stood up to sermonise about the opposition was concerned with personal attacks and not the business of the nation. Brassard gave it another go, and Holland pleaded with them to let Bill C-8 pass.

Alain Therrien considered it arrogant that the government wouldn’t devolve powers to Quebec to deal with their own immigration files, and Marie-France Lalaonde cited some figures about the province not managing to fill their entire quotas as it is. Christine Normandin got up next, and gave a paean to a woman’s right to choose, and Chrystia Freeland assured her this government would protect a woman’s rights, and she expressed shock at the news coming out of the United States, and gave a clear defence of a woman’s rights, to an ovation from most of the Commons, but not all.

Jagmeet Singh railed about an alleged tax agreement achieved with a corporation, to which Diane Lebouthillier said that this allegation was examined by a third party and determined there was no wrong doing and that the CRA came out ahead in the arrangement. Singh switched to French to decry the profitability of the oil and gas sector while getting subsidies, and Jonathan Wilkinson gave a bromide about working with sectors including the oil and gas sector.

Continue reading