Tag Archives: Refugees

Roundup: Tariffs are likely biting worse than claimed

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You may have heard time and again that some 85 percent of goods traded with the US are covered under the New NAFTA and are not exposed to the new 35 percent tariffs, but that number could actually be misleading (and variable depending on who’s talking). In actual fact, that 85 percent figure is trade that is eligible to be compliant with New NAFTA rules, but a lot of it actually isn’t, because a great deal of that trade was simply done without the compliance with the New NAFTA rules because it was easier for many businesses just to pay the old tariff rates because there are significant costs to be compliant with the New NAFTA rules. That calculation has changed now with the Trump tariffs, and a lot of businesses are scrambling to get their compliance certification, but for many small businesses, it’s incredibly hard to do because they don’t have the staff or resources to do so. This means that the tariffs could be biting harder than some people are saying.

Meanwhile, media outlets like the CBC have been trying to get an answer from prime minister Mark Carney or his office about where he stands on the 2030 climate targets, and lo, they cannot get one. Which is not great considering how much Carney professed to be trying to get Canada and the world taking climate change seriously. And in the time since, he’s eliminated the consumer carbon levy (which was working to reduce emissions), and has given himself permission to violate all kinds of other environmental laws through the giant Henry VIII clause in Bill C-5, so it’s not exactly sending a signal that he’s too interested in that 2030 target, even though it was already going to more effort to achieve it than the Trudeau government was making. It’s not great, considering that we’re still living in a climate emergency, regardless of the tariff situation.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian bomb strikes in Zaporizhzhia have injured at least twelve. Three people swimming in a restricted area off the coast of Odesa were killed by an explosive object, likely an unexploded mine (which is why the area is off-limits). Unsurprisingly, president Zelenskyy has rejected any kind of “land swap” deal made without the involvement or consent of Ukraine.

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Roundup: Past the gushing, the premiers are up to their old tricks

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If you only listened to the effusive praise from the premiers after their meeting over the past three days in Muskoka, you might miss the strong scent of absolute bullshit wafting from them. Yes, there was plenty more gushing about prime minister Mark Carney, and his meeting with them on Tuesday about the current trade negotiations with the Americans, and his engaging with China about the current trade spat with them (where apparently a number of premiers think we should capitulate to China as well), but my gods, the rest of their statements? More of the same from our premiers.

Take bail reform. Doug Ford insisted that they would be “holding him accountable” on his promise to institute more bail reforms in the fall, but problem with bail is not the Criminal Code. The problem with bail is that the provinces have been under-resourcing their justice systems for decades. There aren’t enough court houses or staff for them, the provincial remand facilities are overflowing, and they don’t hire enough provincial court judges or Crown attorneys, nor are some provinces properly training their justices of the peace, who usually make bail determinations. That is all the provinces’ faults, but they continue to falsely blame the federal government because it’s easier than the premiers doing their jobs.

Or healthcare. Ford whinged that the Trudeau government “shortchanged them” and they want more “flexibility.” The same Doug Ford that took $4 billion in pandemic supports from the federal government and just applied it to his bottom line to reduce the provincial deficit. And you can bet that the premiers are sore that Trudeau made the last round of transfers conditional on provinces submitting “action plans” so that they can be judged to see whether the funds are actually going to healthcare spending in those priority areas rather than just being spent elsewhere, as so many billions of past healthcare dollars have been. So of course, they want Carney to try and reverse that. They’re not happy that they have been subjected to strings on those transfers.

"Ford said the previous federal government shortchanged the provinces, and that Ontario needs more money to train and hire doctors and nurses."DOUG FORD PUT $4 BILLION OF PANDEMIC FUNDS ON THE PROVINCE'S BOTTOM LINE TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT.FOR FUCK SAKES!

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-07-24T03:27:14.634Z

Even more alarming is the fact that Ford, on the advice of Danielle Smith, wants to go around the federal government and issue their own work permits to asylum seekers in the province because the federal government takes too long. That’s a pretty significant overreach, which is a very bad sign. And you can bet that none of the premiers will be held to account for any of this, because that’s how we roll in this country.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-07-23T13:25:09.670Z

Ukraine Dispatch

In spite of “peace talks” in Istanbul, there were more drone strikes traded from both sides—Russians hit residential and historic sites in Odesa, while Ukraine hit an oil storage depot near the Black Sea. More Ukrainian POWs were also returned yesterday. Facing protests for the changes to the anti-corruption agencies, president Zelenskyy now says he’ll introduce new legislation to safeguard their independence (but it remains to be seen what that legislation will actually say). European security reports show China covertly shipped drone parts to Russia using mislabelled containers to avoid sanctions.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_ua/status/1947597862574952514

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Roundup: A committee prepares to express its dismay

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The Commons’ transport committee will be meeting sometime this summer over the BC Ferries decision to buy new electric ferries from China and not Canada, never mind that no Canadian company bid on the project (likely because the major shipyards are already full-up on the naval and Coast Guard orders that will keep them occupied for years to come, which was the whole point of the National Shipbuilding Strategy). Of course, because this decision is actually in provincial jurisdiction, as transport minister Chrystia Freeland said time and again in Question Period before the House rose for the summer, the Conservatives on the committee needed to find a different angle of attack.

Enter the Canada Infrastructure Bank. It provided a loan to BC Ferries before the deal was signed, that covers both a portion of the capital costs, as well as electrification infrastructure for the ships themselves. Never mind that the Bank operates at arm’s length from government—the fact that it still reports to Parliament via a minister, Gregor Robertson in this case, means that Robertson and Freeland are going to be summoned to explain themselves, even though they have no hand in these decisions, no should they. The federal funds that go to BC Ferries is for operations and not capital costs, btu the Conservatives seemed to think that this should somehow be weaponised as well. (Oh, and BC premier David Eby said that he wants the committee to look at how unfairly the federal funding is allocated between BC and the Atlantic provinces, never mind that the Atlantic ferries are mostly interprovincial, which makes them a federal responsibility as opposed to BC’s, which is solely within the province’s jurisdiction).

So, what exactly do we expect to happen? I can pretty much guarantee that every party, the Liberals included, will spend the meetings expressing their dismay at BC Ferries’ decision, even though no Canadian firm bid on this contract. The ministers will express dismay, the MPs on the committee will all preen for the cameras, each expressing their dismay and sometimes outrage that these jobs are going to China and not Canada (never mind that no Canadian firm bid on this contract). It will be one big circle-jerk of dismay, while the CEO of BC Ferries will probably appear to say that the Infrastructure Bank loan is a loan that needs to be repaid, and that no Canadian firms bid on this contract. And everything will be done in service of clips for social media, because that’s all Parliament is any more.

Ukraine Dispatch

There is at least one dead and over 71 wounded in drone attacks on Kharkiv, as well as a death following an attack on Odesa and more injuries following a drone strike on Zaporizhzhia. Many of those attacks continued to be aimed at military recruitment offices in order to disrupt intake of new fighters. Trump says he’ll start sending more weapons to Ukraine, but who knows how long it’ll last this time.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1942141632620495134

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Senate QP: Questions about NATO math

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I haven’t been able to attend Senate Question Period in years as the move to a separate building, and a shift of their usual timing to coincide with Commons QP have kept me away, as has the fact that they pretty much always rise at the same time as the Commons, which never used to be the practice, and for which I write a peevish column at the start of every summer. This year, however, they are sitting later to pass Bill C-5, so I am actually able to take it in. It’s been a long time since I’ve been here.

Taking in #SenQP for the first time in *years*.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-06-25T18:04:29.258Z

After statements and routine proceedings, things got underway in earnest as  Senator Housakos led off, and he raised the PBO saying that he has received little information on the NATO two percent announcement, and that they have now agreed to the five percent goal at this week’s summit, And wondered how they could take this credibly. Senator Gold lamented that there was underfunding over decades, and that this was because of a changing world, but also noted that only 3.5 percent of that was over a decade, while the other 1.5 percent was for other things. Housakos again questioned the credibility of the numbers, and Gold returned to the boilerplate assurances they are doing what they can, but also noted that DND hasn’t been able to spend their current allocations.

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Roundup: The confidence vote that wasn’t

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Debate on the Address in Reply to the Speech From the Throne was due to wrap up, meaning a final vote. Media outlets insisted that this would be the first major confidence vote of the new Parliament, and that if the Liberals lost it, we could go back to an election, and there was all this building drama because of how they lost the vote on the Conservatives’ amendment (to “urge” the government to table a spring budget). And my headache started.

The vote on the Address in Reply is not automatically a confidence vote. It is if the opposition amendments explicitly state that they have no confidence in the government, and sometimes that happens because this is the first opportunity to test the confidence of the Chamber, especially in a minority parliament or legislature, but again, that was not the case here. But along the way, the NDP decided that they were going to play tough and declare that they would vote against it for specious reasons (and because Don Davies is an idiot, and has a long track record of being an idiot and a blowhard), while the Government House Leader, Steve MacKinnon, told reporters that this would be a confidence vote. So, if the government says it’s a confidence vote, it’s a confidence vote, and it was likely intended to be something of a bit a put-up-or-shut-up dare, which can be risky in a minority parliament, but sometimes you also need to play hardball with the opposition. This was likely going to mean that the Bloc would either vote in support or abstain (because they did say they would give the government a year before they started to seriously oppose anything, given the Trump situation), but the government was never in any serious danger of falling. If, by some fluke, they did lose a vote they declared to be confidence, they could simply hold another vote and basically say “Did you mean it?” and chances are they would win that vote, and all would go back to normal.

And in the end, there wasn’t even a vote. News of Marc Garneau’s death reached the Chamber just before the vote was to be taken, and it seems like the appetite for drama was gone, and it passed on division, meaning that they agreed to disagree, that they were going to let it pass, but not bother with a recorded vote. And thus, the least exciting outcome happened.

I must advise the beings of Bluesky that, in a truly only-in-this-particular-Canadian-parliament twist, the much-anticipated will-they-or-won't-they-trigger-an-election over it motion on the Throne speech as amended — has been adopted on division.

— Kady O'Malley (@kadyo.bsky.social) 2025-06-04T22:25:39.121Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-04T22:02:26.904Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck an apartment building in Kharkiv, injuring at least seventeen. Russian forces have also pushed further into Sumy region. Here’s a look at how Operation Spiderweb was carried out.

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Roundup: A lost vote for the sake of point-scoring

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The opposition shenanigans manifested during one of the very first votes of the new Parliament, where the government was not able to defeat the Conservative amendment to the Address in Reply to the Speech From the Throne. Said amendment urged the government to table a spring budget, but it’s not binding, and it looks like Mark Carney and the rest of Cabinet will take it under advisement and leave it at that (because you can’t produce a budget within two weeks’ notice, and the Conservatives know that very well).

What gets me is that you have the Conservatives (and others) going “what does it say when the government loses their first vote?” when it says nothing at all. If anything, it says that in a minority parliament, the opposition parties will do everything they can to embarrass the government, just as they have in previous parliaments, and given the current configuration of parties, this is really just a continuation of the constant juvenile bullshit we’ve seen over and over again that resulted in a paralyzed House of Commons last fall. Nothing really changed, and we’re going to see more that very same thing because we have the same insistence on juvenile point-scoring from the opposition, and we have the same Liberal government that is both inept at communicating their way out of a wet paper bag, and who are tactically incompetent because they think that they will somehow come out looking sympathetic to the procedural warfare and gamesmanship when they absolutely won’t because legacy media will simply not actually call anyone’s bullshit, but just both-sides the whole thing, and the Liberals will always lose in that framing. And I suppose what it says about the government is that they haven’t learned a single gods damned lesson from their near-death experience, and Carney’s complete political inexperience isn’t doing them any favours here either.

Meanwhile, the government introduced their big omnibus border bill, and it has a lot of troubling elements, from lowering thresholds for electronic data collection by law enforcement that won’t always require a warrant, and gives Canada Post more authority to open mail they deem suspicious. It also changes particular thresholds for asylum claims, and gives the government powers to simply stop claims or immigration processes with no explanation or apparent avenues for appeal. There are some positives, such as more resources for financial crimes, but in the grand scheme of things, I’m not sure it balances the negatives. The government claims they found the right balance that respects Charter rights, but I am dubious, and I suspect that law enforcement convinced them that they need these rights-violating powers and used Trump’s threats as a justification to get what they want.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian rocket attack killed at least four and injured at least 25 in Sumy. The city of Sumy remains under threat as Russians advance in that region. Ukraine detonated explosives on the concrete piers supporting the bridge linking Russia to Crimea, forcing its closure.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1929871991034568954

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Roundup: Sore from moving those goalposts

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I have to wonder if the Conservatives and their proxies are exhausted from shifting goal posts over the past couple of days, and whether they remembered to lift from the knees and not from their backs, because hoo boy, the commentary coming out of the Carney meeting at the Oval Office has been something to behold. The common cry is that Carney promised on the campaign trail that he would be tough with Trump, and yet in the meeting, he engaged in flattery and didn’t object to things Trump said that were objectively wrong or offensive to Canadians. “He said the relationship was over and now he’s saying this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship!” has been a common refrain. Give me a break.

Can you imagine what they would have said if Carney went to the meeting and was combative with Trump, and put himself in a position for JD Vance to start piling on and creating the conditions for another Zelenskyy moment? Those same Conservatives would have howled that Carney was endangering the relationship with our closes trading partner. And the thing about the relationship is being mischaracterised (mendaciously)—Carney said that the old relationship of deeper ties and close cooperation was over. And that is objectively true. He also said this is the start of a new relationship with the US, which is also true—we can’t carry on like the old relationship is still there, and he has to start somewhere with the new one, and he’s managed to do so in a way that has placated Trump for the time being, which is an incredibly hard thing to do given his mercurial nature, and it may not last. But he had to sit there and say things that Trump thought was flattering (but really weren’t if you actually listened), and he did correct a number of Trump’s insane rants (like saying they don’t do much business with Canada when we’re their top export destination). But “getting tough” with Trump has to be done carefully given his volatile nature, and doing performance art isn’t the way to do it. Trying to insist that Carney was somehow misrepresenting himself or the task at hand in an election need to go give their heads a shake.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre says he’s going to spend the summer “listening and learning,” but well, this is someone who has spent his entire adult life confirming his priors, so I don’t expect much in the way of introspection as to the reasons the campaign failed—particularly as Andrew Scheer was on Power & Politics saying they need to make “refinements” on their strategy, which sounds an awful lot like they plan on fighting the last war rather than actually learning  a single lesson. This being said, it sounds like Poilievre has reached out to Doug Ford’s office to try and mend some fences, so maybe they learned something? Maybe? We’ll see.

Unfortunately…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-07T13:28:07.303Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s “three-day ceasefire” went into effect this morning, but there are reports that guided bombs were still launched against Sumy in the early hours of the morning (but we all know how well Russia lives by its agreements). Ukrainian drones kept interfering with airports around Moscow for a third straight day as foreign leaders were arriving for Victory Day festivities in Red Square.

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Roundup: Admitting to threats on the call with Trump

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Day thirty-three, and while the leaders made their final pitches, the talk remained mostly about Poilievre’s own riding, whether the polls could be believed, or the fact that he scheduled a last-minute rally on the last night of the campaign there, or the fact that people from the war room who were supposed to be sent to Peterborough were sent there to canvas instead. So there’s that.

Mark Carney was in Port Moody, BC, and gave another BC-centric campaign pitch, where he faced questions about his call with Trump in March, and whether Trump did make 51st state comments. Carney admitted he did because this is Trump we’re talking about, but the rest of the discussion was about sovereign countries making a deal, and so he left it at that. That didn’t stop the Conservatives and NDP from howling about it, the Conservatives in particular going off about how Carney is a liar (erm, you have looked in a mirror, right?) and so on. From there, Carney headed to Winnipeg for a campaign event. Carney will be in Sault Ste. Marie this morning, and then heads to Georgetown, Cambridge, and London, Ontario.

Pierre Poilievre was in Halifax at an auto dealership to proclaim his promise to scrap the electric vehicle mandate, but made up a completely bullshit claim that said mandate would impose a “$20,000 tax on gas-powered cars,” which was ludicrously untrue. The Conservative platform also claims that they would somehow get billions in revenue from scrapping said mandate, but he also promised to uphold any of the deals with manufacturers or battery plants for EVs in Canada, so it’s another case of magical growth projections with no basis in reality. From there he headed to a rally in Saskatoon. Poilievre starts the day in Saskatoon, and heads to Nanoose Bay, BC for another rally.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1915501642373640336

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1915428323624206805

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg to declare that he would ensure that the government didn’t put a laundry list of things on the table as bargaining chips in trade talks, most of which they never would anyway, so it’s yet another example of empty posturing. Singh then headed to Toronto. Singh starts his day in Toronto, before heading to Hamilton and London, looking to hold onto their seats in those ridings.

In other campaign news, the CBC has a look at Calgary, where the Liberals have a chance to win as many as four seats. There is also talk about how the federal Conservatives fell out with their Nova Scotia brethren, which included a threatening call from Jenni Byrne. Meanwhile, Singh tells the Star that he didn’t go for an early election (in spite of the constant threats) to hand Poilievre a majority, even if it meant they could win more seats, and insists he has no regrets. This while the NDP are back to running phantom candidates in Quebec ridings, meaning they still have not grassroots in the province.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-04-24T21:27:18.825Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The death toll from the massive attack on Kyiv has reached 12, with at least 90 injured, which also prompted Trump to react (but then said Putin’s concessions included not invading all of Ukraine, which…is not a concession). The missiles used in that strike were North Korean in origin.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1915360570745786543

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Roundup: A grubby way to extend a non-story

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The Globe and Mail’s ongoing pursuit of this story of alleged “tensions” between Chrystia Freeland and the PMO amidst the courting of Mark Carney continue to confound. While none of the substance of these stories actually make sense if you think about it for more than twenty seconds, as I point out in my weekend column, what I find particularly grubby is the way the Globe has been carrying on the story.

To recap, they started with this rather bullshit non-story about these “tensions,” which weren’t actually news because there are always tensions between a PM or Cabinet and a finance minister, because they have to say no to all kinds of grand spending plans. It as a non-story based on gossip and some “strategic” leaks that don’t actually serve any purpose, but they insisted this had ten sources, so it must be credible, but it’s hard to get a sense of what they actually said that would make this something that is actually news. The Globe then followed up with a story saying there’s a fresh attempt to recruit Mark Carney amidst these “tensions,” and the Conservatives put two and two together, and created this delusional scenario about Trudeau somehow throwing Freeland “under the bus” before he replaces her, which was not in the story, but they created this fever dream while simultaneously policing feminism, belittling Freeland while claiming Trudeau was bullying her (and also claiming that they don’t do tokenism in their party, which is laughable). It was pretty gross to watch.

So, what does the Globe do? Write up these fevered delusions as though they’re actually news, and then sends reporters to Freeland’s presser to have her respond to these bizarre, delusional accusations the Conservatives dreamed up, extending the non-story even further. In essence, they set the cat among the pigeons and then spend days writing about the aftermath, all of which is chasing phantoms, rumours, delusions, and frankly, misogynistic outbursts. I have a really hard time with this kind of “journalism,” which feels more masturbatory than it does ethical or in the service of educating the public. I get that they’re doing this for clicks, but it’s pretty icky, especially given how much misogyny has flowed from it.

Surveying the #cdnpoli landscape:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-12-13T14:33:23.449Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a massive aerial attack on Ukraine on Friday, with 93 cruise and ballistic missiles, and more than 200 drones, targeting more critical infrastructure. Russian forces are also continuing their march toward strategic city of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian drones hit a fuel storage facility in central Russia, while the new head of Ukraine’s ground forces says he plans major improvements to troop training, management, and recruitment to help deal with manpower shortages. Ukraine also announced it was planning to send food aid to Syria because Russia has cut them off from the aid they were providing.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1867521042912325739

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Roundup: Healthy tensions made dramatic

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The Globe and Mail had one of those stories that sets the cat among the pigeons, where they got a number of sources to describe the tensions between PMO and the department of finance over their spending plans, and in particular that the PMO was adamant that they wanted to do that stupid GST “holiday”/rebate cheque programme, while Chrystia Freeland was trying to keep a lid on spending because she had fiscal anchors that she was trying to stick to.

As for those anchors, Freeland had her usual Tuesday economic good news press conferences yesterday, and very deliberately said that the Fiscal Update next Monday will show that the debt-to-GDP ratio fiscal anchor would be met—but steadfastly refused to mention the other two fiscal anchors she spoke of in the spring, being a cap on the size of the deficit, and a target for the deficit to be less than one percent of GDP by 2026-27. Freeland repeatedly said that the debt-to-GDP ratio was the one that mattered and that we would see on Monday that it was continuing to decline, but the interpretation of that statement is essentially that the deficit will indeed by higher than $40.1 billion, but that overall GDP grew enough that the higher number is less of an issue. We’ll have to see on Monday, but she very much appeared to be telegraphing lowered expectations.

As for those tensions, if anyone has been around Parliament Hill for any length of time, this should be normal. PMO wants to do things that are politically expedient, and that usually involves spending money, which finance tries to rein in as much as they can. This appears to be little different from that very ordinary standard operating procedure. This, of course, didn’t stop Pierre Poilievre from pouncing on this in QP as proof that the PM has “lost control” of his Cabinet (which is risible on the face of it), and every journalist was trying to get some kind of comment on it (when they weren’t trying to get a comment on Trump’s latest slights). Maybe I’ve been up here too long but “PMO wants to spend money, finance tries to say no” isn’t really news. That’s a day that ends in y. Maybe we don’t need to be so breathlessly dramatic about everything all the time?

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a clinic in Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday, killing at least six and injuring at least 22. A missile attack also damaged an industrial facility in Taganrog the same night. President Zelenskyy says that he used his meeting with Trump in Paris to raise the issue of security guarantees.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1866509325197316109

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