QP: Pretending the pandemic is over

Despite the prime minister being in town and having chaired a Cabinet meeting hours before, he was absent from QP, as were every other leader. Luc Berthold led off, and in the spirit of his party’s Supply Day motion, insisted that it was time to lift mask and vaccine mandates because “enough is enough.” (Erm, when did the pandemic end? Asking for a me.) Adam van Koeverden read that we know more about the pandemic than we used to, and that vaccines work. Berthold was not mollified, and demanded the measures end to speed lines at airports. van Koeverden read that they have tools to detect variants of concern and to prevent transmission. Berthold listed all of the files that he accused the government of being in “chaos” over, to which Karina Gould recited her lines about working to speed processing of passports. Melissa Lantsman took over in English, and demanded an apology to travellers who missed flights because of “incompetence.” Annie Koutrakis read that CATSA has hired 400 new screening officers in various stages of training, and that they are working with airports to relieve bottlenecks. Lantsman insisted that there was some kind of secret advice the government was following that no other government was, to which Gould repeated her lines about passport processing delays.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he was worried that the government plans to appeal the court decision in New Brunswick around the appointment of the lieutenant governor (which is a bad ruling because of what it does for executive appointment powers and constitutional incoherence) while three Liberals spoke out against it. Ginette Petitpas Taylor state that they would ensure future bilingual appointments for the province. Therrien was incensed that the Bloc were being considered radicals, to which Pablo Rodriguez launched into his particular rant that the Bloc are not the only real Quebeckers in the Chamber.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and in French, he railed about inflation, and demanded an excess profit tax on oil companies and to give more GST refunds. Randy Boissonnault reminded him that they indexed benefits to inflation and raised taxes on the top one percent. Daniel Blaikie took over in English by video and made the same demand, and Boissonnault repeated his same answer in English.

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QP: Tough on Black and Indigenous people

In between events with the Prince of Wales and the Duchess of Cornwall, the prime minister was present in QP, as were all other leaders. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she declared that the stated reason for invoking the Emergencies Act was “falling apart” as the interim Ottawa police chief said he did not request it, and she insisted there was a cover-up. Justin Trudeau quoted another witness at the committee who praised the efficacy of the measures. Bergen blamed Trudeau for the blockade with a litany of dubious accusations, and Trudeau retorted that the opposition doesn’t want light shed into their role in prolonging the occupation. Bergen insisted this was “misinformation” before she pivoted the complaining about airport delays and demanded a return to “pre-COVID normal.” Trudeau reminded her that COVID is not over, and that they are identifying ways to help bottlenecks. Bergen started ranting that Trudeau got to go maskless in other countries while Canadians are tired of doing everything being asked of them (erm, which they haven’t been). Trudeau again reiterated that they are following the science. Bergen then launched into a tirade about COVID measures affecting youth, and Trudeau somehow hating youth, and Trudeau listed all of the help they gave young Canadians over the course of the pandemic.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he gave a bizarre rant about the “British monarchy” and the Anglican Church, and demanded to know how much this would cost. Trudeau, bemused, said that Ottawa must really be delivering for Quebec if the Bloc had to dig to reach this. Blanchet continued to complained that royal tours cost money, and Trudeau took the opportunity to praise our system and its stability at a time when democracy is under threat around the world.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, noted the inflation headline number, and repeated yesterday’s demand to cut oil and gas subsidies and to give that money to people in a GST rebate. Trudeau listed that they have been cutting subsidies, that they are going “line by line” on emissions cuts, and that they have affordability measures. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same reply.

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QP: The “soft on crime” square dance

The prime minister was away in Newfoundland to meet Prince Charles and Camilla for the start of their royal tour, and most other leaders stayed away as well. Somewhat unusually, Blaine Calkins led off, and he accused the government of being soft on crime, and that crime was getting worse in Liberal-held ridings, to which Gary Anandasangaree read a script about the bill getting rid of sentences that disproportionately target Black and Indigenous people and don’t make anyone safer. Calkins complained that the government was just trying to bring back a gun registry that only targets law-abiding gun owners. Marco Mendicino reminded him that they were banning military-style rifles like AR-15s, but the Conservatives were trying to make then legal again. Calkins insisted it was just a new gun registry, but Mendicino listed new measures that they announced this week to tighten restrictions. Luc Berthold took over in French, and accused the Liberals of wanting armed criminals on the streets, to which Anandasangaree read the French intro to his script, before switching back to English to read the rest of it. Berthold insisted that Bill C-5 would leave criminals on the streets, and Mendicino listed the measures that the Conservatives opposed.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he railed that the federal government was subsidising oil companies while refinery margins keep increasing, and Randy Boissonnault recited a list of affordability measures that were somewhat of a non sequitur. Therrien repeated this accusations both oil companies, to which Steven Guilbeault recited that they have been cutting subsidies and are moving faster than other G7 partners.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, repeated the same accusations, and wanted the government to support their plan to double the GST credit to help people who need it. Boissonnault listed economic engines for the country and railed that the real problem was Putin and his war on Ukraine. Singh repeated the question in French, and Guilbeault repeated his previous response.

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Roundup: Sour premiers wanted more money

We’re not on or about day forty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and yesterday’s particular war crime of note was an attack on a train station in Kamatorsk that killed fifty-two Ukrainians fleeing to safer parts of the country. More chilling was the fact that the remains of the rocket had “For the children” spray painted on its side. Meanwhile, an international organization formed in the 1990s to identify the dead and the missing in the Balkan conflicts is preparing to send a team of forensic experts to Ukraine to help identify their dead as a result of Russian atrocities.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1512493160013996042

Closer to home, there is more reaction to this week’s budget, and in particular, some of the sour notes coming from provinces. It’s not just the current bit of confusion around just what the dental care programme is going to entail, because we don’t have any implementation details yet, and it sounds like the federal government may try to leverage existing provincial programmes for low-income earners. But more to the point, it’s about health transfers, and the fact that premiers aren’t getting their way with their demands for increased unconditional transfers, ostensibly to ensure that the federal government pays 35 percent of the share of health costs—a figure which is distortionary because since the 1970s, provinces were given tax points instead of direct transfers, so the true cost to the federal government would be far, far higher than the 35 percent figure they like to float. Not to mention, we saw that when federal transfers were higher for a decade, provinces used much of that money on other things, as certain provinces also did during the pandemic. So frankly, I wouldn’t expect the federal government to just hand over more unconditional money in the budget, particularly as they are negotiating with provinces for specific outcomes around mental health and long-term care.

Those demands for higher transfers are also raised in this op-ed by economist Trevor Tombe and professor Daniel Béland, which accuses the federal government of being uninterested in reforming those health care arrangements. I would dispute that because they have made it clear, during the election and since, that they are very interested in reforming those arrangements, and that those reforms mean strings attached to federal dollars, and those negotiations are ongoing. I’m also troubled by the notion that the federal government should be doing something about provincial debt, which is far more unsustainable than the federal government’s. Is the suggestion that the federal government upload more costs or programme responsibilities? Because I don’t see premiers clamouring for that (though they do want more money). Is the suggestion that the federal government simply pay for everything? Because that’s absolutely not sustainable either. It also ignores that most provinces have the ability to raise revenues the old-fashioned way—raising their own taxes. (Some provinces are admittedly screwed demographically, but again, what levers are we proposing the federal government employ?) Tombe and Béland want an open and collaborative process to rethink the fiscal relationships between levels of government, but we’ve all seen this movie before, and it always winds up with the provinces demanding the federal government give them more money. I’m not sure how that helps.

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Roundup: Calls to further isolate Belarus

The continued shelling of Mariupol marked day sixteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the Russians were aggressively pushing disinformation and propaganda about what happened there. It also looks like that long convoy on the way to Kyiv has broken up, and redeployed elsewhere. The US, European Union and G7 are all moving to follow Canada’s lead in revoking Russia’s “most favoured nation” trade status, while Belarus’ exiled opposition leader called for tighter sanction on that country, including having it removed from the SWIFT system as well, as she seeks diplomatic isolation of the Lukashenko regime, as well as Canadian recognition of her “government in exile.”

Justin Trudeau’s final stop on his European tour was in Poland, where he met with Ukrainian refugees who had fled across the border. Trudeau later said that Putin would lose the war, and that he would face consequences for his illegal war and the war crimes that come along with it. It has also been announced that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely address Canada’s Parliament on Tuesday, which is during the March Break, meaning that MPs and senators will fly into Ottawa for a day, then fly back out again.

Closer to home, the Chief of Defence Staff says that Russia’s re-occupation of its Cold War bases in its far north are of concern to Canada, and that we shouldn’t be complacent. General Eyre’s big challenge remains recruitment, however, which is not going to be an easy nut to crack, particularly as culture change is still underway within our military ranks. Of course, we should also remember that it’s extremely unlikely to face any kind of northern invasion because it’s simply not feasible. Seriously.

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Roundup: Those December inflation numbers

Yesterday was Consumer Price Index day at StatsCan, which means a new round of inflation data, and a new round of ridiculous shitposts from Erin O’Toole and Pierre Poilievre. In an effort to provide some perspective as to what is driving prices this month, let’s delve into the report, shall we?

Key drivers are:

  • Food prices have been rising because of poor weather conditions in food-growing regions, which has impacted prices for things like fresh fruit, and supply chain disruptions impact those imports. Additionally, we had droughts in Canada this summer, and crop yields were down in the area of 35 percent, which is making it more expensive.
  • Durable goods, primarily things like household appliances and vehicles, all of which are impacted by those supply chain disruptions, especially with the ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips.
  • Construction costs are higher because of higher building materials (demand outstrips supply), and home and mortgage insurance prices have been rising as a result of severe weather-related claims.
  • Gasoline prices have moderated, which is again, a global supply and demand issue.
  • Oh, hey—stronger demand for air travel is increasing the price of fares.

So yeah, I’m not seeing a lot in here that is either Justin Trudeau’s fault, or something that he, or any other future federal government could do anything about. I mean, other than wage and price controls (which didn’t actually work), so if we want to bring back “Zap, you’re frozen!” that remains an option. As well, prices have started to moderate. Month-over-month inflation was actually down 0.1 percent, which could be the signal that things are starting to turn a corner.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1483990594770800643

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Roundup: The healthcare debate needs to include strings

Our healthcare system is the topic du jour across much of the media, with a lot of “told you so,” and handwringing about how provincial governments drove “efficiencies” over the past number of decades that left almost no surge capacity­—Ontario most especially—while not doing anything about its robustness. And through it all, there are a number of opportunists saying “See! We need more private options!” which in turn leads to accusations of “See! You want American-style healthcare!” and the argument goes binary and unhelpful. (And here is some perspective on the American system amid COVID, which had more capacity, but is similarly overburdened now and some hospitals are declaring bankruptcy because they have had to cancel elective surgeries).

What I find particularly curious, however, is that in none of the pieces I read over the weekend was it ever acknowledged that over the decade that the health transfer escalator was at six percent annually, that provincial health spending didn’t match that growth, and that the money was being spent elsewhere. Provincial governments should be held to account for the fact that they were given money to fix their healthcare systems, and they didn’t, which has led us to this situation, and while my reply column on Twitter likes to insist that this is just conservative governments, no, it was common to governments of all stripes for decades now. This is why we need all future federal transfer agreements to come with hard strings, and compliance measures to ensure that we actually use those federal dollars to fix the system, not paper over cracks while they use the money to lower taxes elsewhere.

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QP: Deception about deflation

For the final Question Period of 2021—which was still undetermined as things got underway, as the House Leaders were engaged in a game of chicken—neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, but the latter would appear virtually. Erin O’Toole led off, script in front of him, and he immediately started off with a lie about deflation, which did happen, and he was presuming it to be a good thing because it would lower prices, when in fact it would have led to a spiral that turned into a depression as businesses couldn’t service their debts. Chrystia Freeland, by video, called this out as misinformation, and noted that Stephen Poloz cited that the government’s actions averted a second Great Depression. O’Toole railed about Freeland’s alleged misinformation during the election campaign and compared her to Donald Trump, and Freeland called O’Toole the leader of flip-flops, and noted that in the election the Conservatives promised even more spending while they were currently railing against it, and that a consistent position might be nice. O’Toole repeated his first question in French, and Freeland repeated the Poloz comments in French. John Barlow got up and railed about the export ban on PEI potatoes and wondered why the agriculture minister was not currently in Washington resolving the situation. Freeland assured him the federal government was working to resolve if and noted she was next to the prime minister when he raised it with Biden, while Conservatives advocate capitulation. Barlow insisted that this has basically destroyed PEI, and Freeland dismissed this as scaremongering, and reassured farmers they were working on it like they did with previous disputes they won on.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and blamed the Quebec teacher who was reassigned for wearing a hijab, railing that she knowingly broke the law and saying otherwise was Quebec bashing. Freeland calmly recited that they stand with Quebeckers who stand up for individual rights and freedoms. Therrien railed that mayors are funding court challenges, accusing them of not understanding secularism or democracy, and Freeland gave some fairly disarming reassurances that the federal government works well with Quebec and the Bloc shouldn’t pick fights.

Peter Julian rose for the Bloc, and in French, he worried that omicron could lead to lockdowns with no supports, to which Freeland made a pitch for MPs to pass Bill C-2 to provide necessary supports. Julian shouted the same question again in English, and Freeland repeated her response in the other official language. 

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QP: Ignoring the threats of a trade war

In advance of the fall fiscal update, neither the PM nor the finance minister were absent, but so were all of the other leaders. Michell Rempel Garner led off for the Conservatives, and grumbled that the Americans want Saudi and Iranian oil over Canadian imports, for which Steven Guilbeault reminded her that the world of energy is changing, and that the future was in renewables, and that the record investments were happening in Alberta. Garner needled that she wanted Mary Ng to answer instead of a man to answer for her, for which Ng stood up and took exception to how the question was framed, before asserting that she always stands up for Canadian workers. Rempel Garner accused the government of being happy to offshore jobs to climate destroying countries, and this time François-Philippe Champagne stood up to praise their leadership in clean energy sectors. Gérard Deltell took over in French, and he worried about the American EV tax credit and stated that the government was doing nothing about it, to which Ng reminded him of their threat of retaliatory tariffs that they delivered to the US. Deltell again accused the government of doing nothing, and Ng listed how they have engaged with the US administration.

Alain Therrien rose for the Bloc, and complained that Trudeau was not currently interfering in the fight against Bill 21, and then demanded no interference in court challenges, for which David Lametti recited that nobody should lose their job for how they dress or their religion, and noted the were protests in Chelsea, Quebec, about the removal of a teacher. Therrien then railed that UN Ambassador Bob Rae said that Bill 21 defies the UN Declaration of Human Rights and wanted him recalled, for which Lametti simply asserted that they were monitoring the situation.

Jagmeet Singh suddenly appeared and complained about inflation and the GIS clawbacks, for which Kamal Khera read her talking points about supporting senior and working toward a solution on the clawbacks. Singh then to French to repeat the question, and this time Randy Boissonnault recited a litany of their support programmes.

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Roundup: Theatre of the absurd, housing motion edition

The closer the House of Commons gets to rising for the winter break, the more absurd theatre we see. Yesterday was case in point, with the Conservatives’ second and final Supply Day of the calendar year. The topic was housing, but their motion was a complete dog’s breakfast of nonsense, contradiction and outright unconstitutional demands. Because of course it was.

The point was made that the inclusion of the outright lie about capital gains taxes was a ploy for the Conservatives to say that the Liberals were not ruling it out when this motion as inevitably defeated (as indeed it was). But Liberal Mark Gerretsen though he was being crafty and tried to move a motion after QP to head off those talking points, trying to call for unanimous consent to reaffirm that they wouldn’t tax capital gains. But the motion didn’t pass, so Gerretsen tried to spin that too, and it’s just utterly stupid that I can’t even.

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