Tag Archives: Trade

Roundup: An “explainer” that ignores provincial culpability

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The Star had a supposed explainer piece on bail reforms over the weekend, which talked a lot about over-incarceration, and poorly explained stats about certain offenders being out on bail with no context as to the charges they were facing prior to the alleged second offence, but absolutely nothing about the actual problems that the system faces, which is the continued and pervasive under-funding of courts by provinces, and Ontario most especially. It’s absolutely maddening how an explainer piece can lack that whole entire and most vital piece of the supposed puzzle. (It’s not a puzzle).

Part of the problem is who the reporter spoke to, being the “balanced” choices of the Toronto Police Association and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association. The CCLA is just fine, because they provided a lot of relevant points about lack of data that means we don’t actually have any proper information on reoffences on bail, or anything like that (because—wait for it!—provinces have refused to fund that data collection). But police associations, by and large, are not credible sources. (Police associations, by and large, exist to protect bad apples within police forces, and remain a huge problem when it comes to reforming police services). There was nobody from the broader legal community interviewed for this piece, neither Crown nor defence counsel, who could have explained the resourcing issues. Am I biased because I write for legal publications? A little, but the perspective from my piece on bail reform differs vastly from the “explainer” in the Star for that very reason.

This is one of the most quintessential policy issues of our times where provincial underfunding is having an outsized impact on the system in question, this being the justice system, and it keeps getting ignored by the vast majority of legacy media, while the federal minister is behaving naively when he says that his provincial counterparts say they understand the problems in the system. But the problem is them, and their governments not funding the system. They like to complain that the problem is the Criminal Code, or that judges are being too lenient, but no, the problem is the provincial funding, and no changes to the Criminal Code will ever change that. And for yet another legacy media publication to ignore this, and let the provinces off the hook yet again, is beyond irresponsible.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-25T21:10:02.092Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks on Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk killed four and wounded at least twenty early Saturday, while attacks early Sunday wounded at least 29 in Kyiv.

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Roundup: Terminating talks (but there is no deal to be had)

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The day was largely dominated by the fallout of Trump’s declaration that he was terminating negotiations with Canada in the wake of that Reagan ad after the Reagan Foundation—which is being run by a Trump loyalist—falsely claimed that the material was misleading and that it was used without permission. It was neither misleading, nor is permission required for presidential speeches (transcript here). Doug Ford had insisted that he was going to keep airing them, and Wab Kinew egged him on while David Eby said that BC was preparing similar ads of their own. But then Ford had a conversation with Mark Carney and decided to back down on the ads as of Monday (which means they will still run over the weekend, during the first two games of the World Series).

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3m3wzidltvs24

Meanwhile, Trump’s loyalists are on American TV badmouthing Canada, saying that we’re not collegial and difficult to work with, when what they mean is that we haven’t unilaterally capitulated to them like everyone else has, which is a problem for them. The point has also been made that while there seems to be a strategy at play to try and energize the Reaganite Republicans against the MAGA Republicans, this is ultimately a losing strategy because the Reaganites have long-since capitulated and have no energy or will to have that fight, so Canadians trying to make that their strategy seems self-defeating in the long run.

The thing is, there is no deal to be had with Trump, and never has been. This was never about ads—it was about finding an excuse to end the negotiations, because this was never about a trade deal, but about trying to dictate terms of our economic capitulation. Trump ending negotiations just rips that band-aid off—we need to stop pretending that there is an achievable end-goal here, or that we can somehow get a better deal when there are no deals to be had—only capitulation. Carney needs to send the signal to Canadian industry that we can’t count on things returning to status quo, and wasting our time trying to get to that outcome because it won’t happen, and everyone is better off spending their energy and capital transitioning to whatever is next.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3m3wxv2byos24

Trump is posting on Truth Social that he's terminating negotiations with Canada over a "fake" ad criticizing tariffs (that was run by Ontario, and which isn't fake.)It's all theatre. There was never a deal to be gotten. Trump just wants to claim victory. #giftlink www.thestar.com/opinion/cont…

— Justin Ling (@justinling.ca) 2025-10-24T12:12:12.132Z

I broke things down further here.I'm starting to think we're wrong to even say that Trump's trade negotiations are getting "deals." They're not deals. They're the terms of other countries' economic capitulation. #giftlinkCanada is lucky not to have signed!www.thestar.com/opinion/cont…

— Justin Ling (@justinling.ca) 2025-10-24T12:23:27.974Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia claims to have taken control of three more villages—one in Kharkiv, one in Donetsk, and one in Dnipropetrovsk regions. President Zelenskyy was at a coalition of the willing meeting in London, calling for deep-strike weapons, and saying that Ukraine will need to find a way to produce more of its own air defences.

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Roundup: Jivani’s tour for disaffected young men

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Something that has gone largely unnoticed has been Conservative MP Jamil Jivani’s campus tours, modelled after the late fascist Charlie Kirk’s campus tours that were deemed essential to youth outreach for Trump’s MAGA movement. There has been some acknowledgement that under Poilievre, the Conservatives have been attracting a lot of disaffected young men, but as Jivani’s little campus tour is showing, this is much more explicitly about disaffected young white men, who are tired of being confronted about the concept of toxic masculinity, who don’t think that they can speak freely, and who can’t find jobs.

If anything, there is some bitter irony in Jivani cultivating this particular demographic because he has been beating the anti-DEI drum that Poilievre has appropriated from the MAGA cult, but part of this tour is about getting these young white men to present themselves as the real victims. To suggest that they need special policies to address their needs is pretty hard to square with the whole cry about “merit” that is supposed to replace DEI. If they need special programs, then they are not able to get ahead by merit alone, no? Of course, we know that the real reason why they want to eliminate DEI is precisely because they can’t compete based on merit, so they want to return to a system that systemically discriminates against those who are deserving but can’t get a fair shake.

This of course gets to the real issue in play—that these rallies are attracting groups who are Diagolon-aligned, and whose talk about “remigration” is code for ethnic cleansing. Sure, Jivani can tell them that it’s “complicated,” but this is not a group that believes in nuance. The fact that Jivani can’t denounce that kind of rhetoric but instead tries to mollify it is an indictment about where the Conservative party is headed in this country. Someone remarked that this is no longer the party of Stephen Harper. Unfortunately, it’s becoming the party of Donald Trump, whether they want to believe it or not, and that’s a very terrifying prospect for where things could be headed in this country, because there is no “good parts only” version that they think they can achieve.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-23T21:27:02.365Z

Ukraine Dispatch

An attack on Kyiv overnight Wednesday wounded nine people. Two Ukrainian journalists were killed by a Russian drone in Kramatorsk, while an investigation has been launched into Russian soldiers killing five civilians in a village in the Donetsk region.

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QP: Parsing Carney’s “miserable” speech

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The PM was away again today, this time having spent the morning at the Darlington nuclear plant, and before his planned appearance at the Blue Jays’ practice (because priorities). Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and said that Mark Carney’s speech last night was “depressing,” and that he was demanding young people make sacrifices, when they have already been making sacrifices and have nothing left. Joël Lightbound said that young people sacrificed a  pessimistic, negative vision of Canada from Poilievre and chose a serious leader with an ambitious government. Poilievre said that Lightbound didn’t listen to the speech, and he repeated the supposed sacrifices that these young people have made, including falsely claiming that these are the worst job numbers in 30 years, before demanding an “affordable budget.” Lightbound said that the gulf between Poilievre and Carney gets wider and wider, and he rhymed off the talking points about the “transformational budget” and “spending less to invest more.” Poilievre switched to English to repeat his lament for the “depressing speech” and the sacrifices being demanded. John Zerucelli stood up to proclaim that he was proud to present red seals to a three young tradespeople before he praised the government’s plans. Poilievre again falsely claimed that the jobless rate was at a thirty-year high outside of COVID, and that young people need jobs and housing. Zerucelli proclaimed how much they were going go build. Poilievre again lamented that nobody had apparently watched Carney’s “miserable” speech and that youth would have to sacrifice more when they have already sacrificed enough, and wanted his own plan put into the budget. Steve MacKinnon got up to quip that the only person who is miserable when the prime minister speaks is Poilievre, before he gave a soaring paean about the announcement this morning and that the future was bright for youth. Poilievre again pitched his own plan to be put into the budget, and again, MacKinnon gave another soaring speech about the hope they are giving youth.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and decried the government’s dismissing of the Bloc’s demands as “political games.” Steven Guilbeault said that Blanchet was changing his plans as often as he changes his shirts, and his tone of cooperation has given way to panning the budget before reading it. Normandin panned Carney’s empty consultations, and Guilbeault listed all of the people who met with the Bloc leader. Yves Perron again decried the “political games” line and insisted that the Bloc’s demands represent the needs of Quebeckers. As he always does in the face of such rhetoric, MacKinnon reminded the Bloc that they have fewer seats that the Liberals do in the province.

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Roundup: Poilievre’s second backtrack attempt

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Still under fire for his comments about Justin Trudeau and the “despicable” leadership at the RCMP, Pierre Poilievre has been forced to backtrack a second time. The first was his tactic of issuing clarifications only to media outlets and not his social media or party channels, and that didn’t mollify people, so this time he held a media availability and insisted that he didn’t say what we all heard him say, and then sent his MPs out to do media to also overly parse what his language was, and to try and spin it to say something other than what we all heard him say, and to insist that what we all heard him say was out of context. (It was not). He is now claiming that he didn’t say Trudeau should be jailed—only that he “clearly” broke a law that would impose jailtime (even though it was not clear he broke said law), and that clearly isn’t the same thing. Kind of like how they’re not scapegoating immigrants, they’re just criticising Liberal immigration policy (wink).

Meanwhile, members of his caucus are getting restive, and while they all made a big show of publicly supporting him, several have been quietly talking to media outlets about their dissatisfaction. While some are saying they’re undecided if they want to vote for him continuing in the leadership review, I also suspect that there are very few Conservatives in the caucus who have the spine or the intestinal fortitude to actually vote against him, no matter how inappropriate the comment, because there are precious few MPs in any party who would dare stand against their leader and face the wrath of having their nomination papers go unsigned.

Carney Speech

Prime minister Mark Carney gave a speech last night that was intended as a kind of pre-budget positioning, but also a kind of victory lap to pat themselves on the back for all of the work they’ve been doing since the election. Carney promised that the budget was going to unleash all kinds of private sector investment, but I also feel like we’ve been hearing that refrain for the past two decades and not a lot of it has really materialized. He said he wants to double non-US exports over the next decade. He spoke about “betting big,” and getting back to a culture of doing big things, but the thing about that kind of talk is that it ignores the people who were impacted by that, most particularly Indigenous people who were displaced or exploited in the process. He said that this is going to take more than a few months and can’t happen overnight, but he also talked about “sacrifices,” particularly as he talks about cutting government spending.

My problem with this particular rhetoric is that he never quite makes it clear who will be making those sacrifices, and you can be damn sure it’s not CEOs or rich white dudes. In fact, you can pretty much set your watch by the fact that the “sacrifices” are going to be on the backs of women’s programmes, queer/trans people and other minority groups whose funding is going to be slashed to nothing, it’s going to be the poor who will find that programming designed to assist them will be gone (but hey, they’ll get their benefits thanks to automatic filing, whenever that actually happens). We’ve seen this happen time and again, and the cycle of time is coming around once again, and Carney is making no move to stop it and finding a new path.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-22T22:02:55.404Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The fairly massive attack early Wednesday targeted several cities and killed six, including two children, as a kindergarten was struck. Russia claims it took two more villages in Donetsk region. Sweden has signed a letter of intent about supplying 150 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.

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QP: An incomplete “economics lesson”

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The PM was present today, as we learned he has been having pre-budget meetings with opposition leaders (for what it’s worth, given that the document is about to head to the printers). Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and raised his meeting with Mark Carney later in the day, and demanded an “affordable budget for an affordable life.” Carney assert that this budget would be bring operational spending under control while making major investments in capital projects. Poilievre said that the Liberals promised this a decade ago and we have only had economic ruin since, before again demanding an end to deficits and so-called “hidden taxes.” Carney reiterated they would clean up operational spending before reminding him that inflation remains in the target zone. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and Carney repeated his points about cleaning up operational spending to invest more, and that people have been doing better singe he became prime minister. Poilievre went on a rant about how Carney was telling people that they have never had it so good, to which Carney decided to give an economic lesson, pointing out that inflation is in the target zone, food inflation is in the G7 average, and that Canada is in the best position in the G7. Poilievre accused Carney of lecturing Canadians lining up at food banks—to which the Liberals shouted “you!”—and listed high food prices. Carney pointed to his tax cuts and stated he was here for single mothers and Canadians. Poilievre again railed about the inflation figures, and Carney again listed off his bullet points of his budget promises for operational spending and capital investment.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, raised another auto plant closing because of tariffs, and demanded action from the government. Carney stated their disappointment with the closures, and stated that they were still negotiating but Canada still has the best deal possible. Blanchet dismissed this as not being enough, and demanded other assurances in the negotiations. Carney promised they would protect Supply Management and Quebec culture in the negotiations. Blanchet wanted assurances for forestry, and Carney reminded him that they have a fund to help the sector.

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Roundup: More than just the CRA in the Auditor General’s gaze

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It was Auditor General Day yesterday, and boy were there some doozies. Pretty much all of the media attention was focused on the CRA audit, and the finding that call centres pretty much didn’t answer the phones, and when they did, they only gave correct information about seventeen percent of the time in the calls the Auditor General’s office made—yikes! The government is quibbling with the methodology, because of course they are, but also calling the report “constructive criticism” instead of “scathing,” and because these are the Liberals, François-Philippe Champagne thundered that the “good news” was that they had already started their one-hundred-day action plan to fix things without waiting for the report. (No, seriously—he declared this to be “good news” in Question Period). That said, when pressed about whether inadequate staffing was a problem, and what the coming civil service cuts were going to mean, the Secretary of State, Wayne Long, had no answer for it, which you would think is a pretty important detail considering just how embarrassing this is for the government. He also had no answers as to why things deteriorated this badly under the Liberal watch, and just kept saying that he was appointed on May 13th. Come on.

But there were plenty of other reports that were also not good:

  • There are plenty of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, not the least of which is because Shared Services Canada still can’t do their jobs properly since they were established under Harper.
  • Military housing is tremendously inadequate and much of it in a state of disrepair, and housing for single members is needed most especially.
  • Military recruitment is a gong show, and they couldn’t even ask why twelve out of every thirteen applicants abandoned their application.
  • There are still barriers to ending the remaining boil water advisories on First Nations reserves, even though they’ve been at this for a decade, and half of previous AG recommendations still haven’t been implemented.

The good news is that most of the legacy media outlets actually sent reporters to do reporting on these reports rather than just relying on CP wire copy, but really, only the CRA story got attention in QP and on the evening talking head shows, which is too bad because there was plenty more to talk about. But that’s indicative of the state of media these days.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-21T14:08:04.164Z

Ukraine Dispatch

There was a Russian attack on Kyiv overnight. Ukraine struck a Russian chemical plant with its newly acquired Storm Shadow missiles, which was a key supplier of gun powder and rocket fuel.

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Roundup: Fixing CPC nomination races?

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Word has been obtained by the Globe and Mail that the Conservative Party plans to change their nomination processes after riding associations have been making their objections known to the central party about the way those races were handled in the lead-up to the election. You may recall that there were a number of sudden disqualifications, or where would-be candidates had spent months fundraising and selling memberships only for someone else to be parachuted into the riding as candidate in their place, leading to a few of them deciding to help the Liberal in the riding instead because of such a betrayal by their party.

While it sounds good that the party is hearing these complaints and planning to make changes, we’ll see what changes they end up implementing, because this is something that all parties are failing on. Grassroots nomination races are supposed to be the place where the local party members can most influence the party by selecting who they want on the ballot, but it’s also a place where they should be able to hold the incumbent accountable for their actions (or inaction), and replace them on the ballot if they so choose. But increasingly, parties have been protecting incumbents under the dubious rhetoric that they’re too busy in Ottawa to run in an open nomination, or that it somehow prevents mischief when sometimes that means thwarting the will of a local membership base that is dissatisfied.

If the Conservatives re-commit to transparent, open nominations, that’s a good thing for democracy, which is something that the Liberals most especially right now are failing at (thanks especially to rules that Trudeau pushed through when he revamped the party’s constitution to centralise power under the dubious excuse of needing to be more “nimble.”) But I also don’t hold out too much hope that these rules will be the grassroots rules we should have, because too many party leaders have come to depend on being able to put a thumb on the scales of nomination races to get their preferred candidates into caucus, even though that has created more problems in the long run than it solved.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-18T14:08:03.467Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian forces attacked a coal mine in southeastern Ukraine on Sunday, but there were no fatalities. It turns out that during that meeting at the White House last week, Trump was back to using Russian propaganda and demanding Ukraine surrender the entire Donbas region.

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Roundup: Federal-provincial meetings without provincial commitments

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The federal and provincial justice ministers wrapped up a two-day meeting in Kananaskis yesterday, where they discussed shared priorities, particularly around the supposed big problem of bail reform. But did they come up with any commitment to do the actual thing that would make a measurable difference with the bail system, which is for the provinces to actually properly fund the court systems, including hiring and adequately paying Crown prosecutors, training justices of the peace, ensuring there are enough functional court houses that are properly staffed, and that they have enough provincial court judges (who deal with the bulk of criminal cases)? Hahahaha, of course they didn’t.

Readout from the federal-provincial justice ministers' meeting.I don't see a commitment in here from the provinces to properly fund their court systems (but more money for police!), which means all of these promised Criminal Code reforms are next to useless.Slow clap, everyone.FFS

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-10-17T20:09:12.929Z

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-10-17T20:11:58.895Z

Without any of these commitments by the provinces, any tinkering that the federal government does to the Criminal Code is going to mean nothing. It’s just going to clog the justice system even more; it’s going to crowd the already overcrowded provincial jails even more. It’s going to ensure that there are sentencing discounts when people do go to trial and get sentenced. It’s going to mean more lawsuits for keeping wrongfully accused in those overcrowded provincial jails for longer while awaiting trial, only to be acquitted after their lives have been destroyed. Because the federal government refuses to apply enough public pressure to the provinces for them to do their jobs. It’s not actually that difficult, but they absolutely refuse, and so nothing is going to get better, and they will continue to take the blame every time there is another high-profile incident that happens when someone is on bail.

Meanwhile, the federal and provincial health ministers had their own meeting in Calgary, where they totally pledged “deeper collaboration,” but as with justice, there is no commitment by the provinces to do their jobs and properly fund their systems, nor any commitment to reforming things like how family doctors can bill the system, or the practical things that doctors themselves demand. No, instead we get certain ministers like Alberta’s who want more federal support and a move away from “one-size-fits-all” funding programmes, which is ridiculous because the last round of healthcare transfers required the provinces to come up with their own action plans for their own priorities, and those action plans acted as the strings for future tranches of funding by ensuring that priorities were actually met. So again, this is just setting up future failure where they will again blame the federal government. Because apparently this federal government is incapable of learning.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia claims it has captured three more villages—one in Dnipropetrovsk region, and two in Kharkiv region. President Zelenskyy was in Washington, where Trump waffled on promised military equipment support again, so no surprise there.

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Roundup: Carney won’t retaliate

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Prime minister Mark Carney has dismissed calls by Doug Ford and others to retaliate against increasing American trade actions, insisting that this is not the time, and that this is the time to keep negotiating. But to what end? There is no deal to be had, and any deal they come up with isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. The talks keep “stalling,” and every time, the Americans make another demand to restart them, and Carney capitulates, and then the talks resume for a few days, and then they “stall” again. Because there isn’t a deal to be had. Sure, we currently have the “best deal” of everyone, which doesn’t amount to much given the constant tariffs under bullshit “national security” reasons, but their demands are increasingly encroaching on our sovereignty and ability to make our own policy decisions, again, for nothing. When do we start saying no more? Hopefully before we’re a vassal state.

Carney also said that he got “reassurances” from Stellantis about the Brampton plant that they decided to move production away from, but again, what good is that if they decide to keep shifting production south to avoid the tariffs, as Trump wants? Carney also isn’t saying if he’d drop Chinese EV tariffs for the sake of saving the canola trade, but again, that would be foolish because the next time China wants to make a point, they would tariff canola again, or come up with some kind of falsehood about “concerns” about the product, like they constantly do. It would be great if Carney could actually articulate that concern, rather than give false hope that this would be some kind of lasting solution to the canola issue.

Meanwhile, Carney announced his bail and sentencing reform plans, most of which are pretty much the opposite of what the legal community has warned against, and which does nothing about the fact that the real problem with bail is provinces under-resourcing their court systems, or that their jails are overcrowded, and that they’re not funding community supervision programmes, or that their underfunding social programmes means more people are going to find their way into crime. Tinkering with the Criminal Code and endangering people’s Charter rights will do nothing about this. And it’s so infuriating that Carney just capitulated to a bunch of complete falsehoods by the Conservatives, and this will change nothing (other than crowding those provincial jails even worse), and they’ll still get blamed when another case slips through the cracks.

They say they're going to work with the provinces, but rest assured that those provinces won't do what they need to do (resource their court systems), and that the situation is going to get even worse, and the federal government will again take the blame, and tinker with the Criminal Code even more.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-10-16T15:39:15.421Z

Also, as Dale notes, provinces have no room to incarcerate more people. Judges are reducing custodial sentences because jail conditions are so bad. bsky.app/profile/jour…

— Anna Mehler Paperny (@mehlerpaperny.bsky.social) 2025-10-16T18:03:49.009Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas facilities will force them to import more gas this winter. A large Russian assault near Dobropillia was repelled by Ukrainian forces. Reuters takes a deeper dive into Russia’s attacks on Russia’s energy industry. AP has a photo gallery of displaced Ukrainians at a hostel in Dnipro.

Good reads:

  • Lina Diab says that there will be some adjustments coming to the provincial nominee programme numbers.
  • Tim Hodgson says the Americans are interested in “energy security” as part of conversations about reviving the Keystone XL pipeline.
  • Both Alberta and Saskatchewan’s health ministers say that Marjorie Michel hasn’t approached them about joining the federal pharmacare programme.
  • DND and the Canadian Forces are suing NSIRA to block the release of a report on their intelligence activities, claiming the redactions aren’t sufficient.
  • FINTRAC has levied a $600,000 fine on the First Nations Bank for lack of proper controls over money laundering, which they acknowledge.
  • Former PBO Kevin Page and the head of the IMF both say that Canada’s finances are sustainable and could increase spending without issue.
  • As Mélanie Joly tries to press Lockheed Martin for more industrial benefits for F-35s, the company points to 30 companies in Canada providing components.
  • A study shows that Canadian passport holders outpace Americans for visa-free access to other countries.
  • Here is a look at the process to create the Supreme Court of Canada’s new ceremonial robes.
  • In more Dollarama Trumpism, Poilievre is calling for the RCMP to investigate and jail Trudeau for past ethics scandals, saying the senior ranks are “despicable.”
  • The premier of PEI is calling for a federal investigation into allegations of Chinese foreign interference and money-laundering in the province.
  • Wab Kinew is lobbing broadsides at other premiers over their use of the Notwithstanding Clause as he moves a bill to refer future all uses to the courts.
  • Rob Shaw chronicles BC Conservative leader John Rustad’s plummeting fortunes.
  • John Michael McGrath makes the depressing point that Canada has very little leverage when it comes to trying to preserve our auto industry.
  • My Xtra column points out that Carney’s hate crime bill is mostly empty symbolism because the real problem is a lack of police enforcing existing laws.
  • My (delayed) column makes the case that youth may be avoiding politics because they no longer have an entry point with grassroots party organisations.

Odds and ends:

https://twitter.com/RichardAlbert/status/1978906504154489171

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