Tag Archives: Ukraine

Roundup: Just who is lacking in self-awareness?

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It’s day one-hundred-and-ten of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have destroyed a bridge liking Severodonetsk with its twin city of Lysychansk, which cuts off a possible escape route for civilians fleeting Severodonetsk. Street-by-street fighting continues in that city. Meanwhile, here’s a look at the uneasy state that inhabitants of Kyiv find themselves in at this juncture of the war. Elsewhere, two UK citizens and one Moroccan fighting on Ukraine’s behalf has been captured and given an illegal show trial by the so-called separatist government in Donetsk, and has been sentenced to death, creating an international outcry.

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1535918133801889799

Closer to home, I’ve seen a few conservatives sharing a two-minutes video of Justin Trudeau talking with what I presume to be a radio or podcast that he appeared on while in California last week, talking about how there has been a backsliding of democracy around the world because it’s hard and takes work, and you have people who are offering simple solutions and stirring up hate against other groups to achieve their ends. While these conservatives seem to think that Trudeau lacks self-awareness here, I suspect that they are the ones who need to look in the mirror. Trudeau is not saying that the solution to the problems are to “fire the gatekeepers,” or the governor of the Bank of Canada, while making contradictory statements about the housing market. Are the current Liberal policies getting it done? Some of them, but I struggle to think of some simple solutions he’s offering for complex problems. I’m also not sure who they think he’s stirring up divisions against, unless they think that the unvaccinated are an identifiable minority whose rights need to be protected (they made a choice and get to live with the consequences of that choice), or that because he said mean things about the coalition of far-right extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievances tourists who occupied downtown Ottawa for three weeks that somehow he’s the monster (and if these conservatives want to go to bat for that crowd, then they should do so honestly and not whitewash just who those occupiers were, pretending that this was some kind of class warfare). And while I don’t have a great deal of affection for Trudeau, and think that he’s really his own worst enemy, he’s not wrong in what he says in that clip, and if conservatives think that he’s somehow talking about himself, they should give their heads a shake.

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Roundup: Lessons to be learned, and hopefully soon

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It’s day one-hundred-and-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fighting continues around Severodonetsk. For the people of the city, they can see what happens when they fall under Russian control—in Mariupol, which has fallen, the remaining residents are dealing with the fact that sanitation has broken down, and corpses are being left to rot, which means there has been an outbreak of dysentery and cholera. Meanwhile, it looks like Russia’s move is to attempt to keep the fighting going on for long enough for the West to lose interest, at which point they can push for Ukraine to make territorial concessions, which Ukraine has no interest in doing.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1535149890950643712

Closer to home, some of the official counts from the Ontario election have been released, and it’s disrupted a whole lot of narratives, particularly around the notion that it was vote-splitting that sunk the NDP’s chances. Nope—in the vast majority of ridings, the Conservatives won by a margin larger than both the Liberals and NDP votes combined. And yes, I know it’s easier to blame the other guy than looking at your own abysmal performance, but come on. Full thread from Mike Moffatt here, and some additional commentary from Hunter Knifton on the Liberal loss here.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1535296477202993154

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1535307246028087297

https://twitter.com/hunterknifton/status/1535323152963837953

Meanwhile, Scott Reid (not the MP, the other one) calls out the Toronto Star editorial board’s assumptions that Pierre Poilievre is just putting on a show that he’ll moderate once he wins the leadership. Reid doesn’t believe he will, and I suspect he’s right. Full thread here, but some highlights. As to whether the Liberals can let go of their happy-clappy pabulum and take this threat seriously, I have some serious doubts, which should worry everyone.

https://twitter.com/_scottreid/status/1535267527139418113

https://twitter.com/_scottreid/status/1535267532449501184

https://twitter.com/_scottreid/status/1535267544935845889

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Roundup: A lack of precognition

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We’re now on day one-hundred-and-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and I couldn’t find any stories to link to on Canadian sites, as everything was about the January 6th committee in the US, because priorities. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s agriculture minister told the Canadian House of Commons agriculture committee that Russia has been raiding Ukraine’s grain stores, and then selling it on the world market using falsified documentation. As well, the RCMP say that they have cracked down on $400 million in Russian assets and transactions from sanctioned individuals.

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1534832733637287936

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1534808012962947072

Closer to home, the Bank of Canada released their Financial Systems Review yesterday, and made remarks about some of the vulnerabilities in the economy, such as high consumer debt levels and variable rate mortgages rising precipitously in the next few months as interest rates continue to rise in order to get inflation under control. They are confident the economy and households can handle the higher rates because the economy needs them.

This being said, I have to take some exception to the commentary happening on Power & Politics last night, and from the host in particular, who was expounding upon how central bankers got it “wrong” about inflation. Apparently they are supposed to have the power of precognitition and could accurately predict the fact that global supply chains would take longer to untangle than previously thought because China went into some serious lockdowns under a COVID-zero policy, that fuel shortages would drive up world oil prices before the Russia invaded Ukraine, and they were supposed to have properly foreseen said invasion and could adjust their inflation expectations accordingly. There have been an increasing number of unlikely scenarios that all pretty much happened across the world over the past two or three years, and you’re ragging on central bankers for not having properly tried to head it off? You can argue that they were too late to ease off on stimulative measures, even though their actions were largely in line with the advice and the data they had at the time, but going after them because they didn’t accurately predict a pandemic and a war? Sit down.

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Roundup: Advice versus requests

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It’s day one-hundred-and-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine has filed eight more alleged war crime cases to court, while Ukrainian troops are holding out in the ruins of Severodonetsk as Russian forces advance in the region. Further south, Russians have been targeting agricultural sites including warehouses, because it seems they are deliberately provoking an international food crisis in order to gain some kind of leverage. Here is a look at the situation in the eastern city of Bakhmut, who feel abandoned by Kyiv. The Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament has made a plea to the European Parliament to speed the process to name Ukraine a candidate for European membership, as that declaration could send a strong signal to Russia.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1534633310651047936

Closer to home, there is a great deal of discussion as to whether or not Marco Mendicino lied when he said that he acted on the advice of law enforcement in invoking the Emergencies Act, in light of the clarification of his deputy minister. I’m probably going to write something longer on this, but I will make the point that police chiefs saying they didn’t request it is fully appropriate because they should not request it—that would be outside of their bounds as it is a highly political act to invoke it, and the minister needs to wear it. But Mendicino has been hidebound to pabulum talking points and bland reassurances, which is where the confusion is creeping in, and is compounding to weaselly behaviour. In any case, this thread by Matt Gurney lays out a lot of what we know, with some interventions along the way which add further shades of grey to this whole affair.

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1534528096828809217

https://twitter.com/thomasjuneau/status/1534617515158122498

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1534539298363654144

https://twitter.com/davidreevely/status/1534541264791773188

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Roundup: Supply cycle reaches its peak

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We’re now in day one-hundred-and-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has nearly seized the entirely of Luhansk, one of the two main Donbas regions. Thus far, Russia has turned over 210 bodies from fighters in the steel plant in Mariupol, exchanging them for Russian bodies.

Here is the tale of a fifteen-year-old Ukrainian boy who helped destroy an advancing Russian column by using a drone and alerting the Ukrainian forces of where to aim their artillery. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been trying to get its grain to markets by other means than by ship, but it is being beset by logistical problems, as their silos are full and a new planting season is already underway. Even if they could get their ships out of port, it will take at least a month or two to de-mine the corridors these ships travel.

https://twitter.com/UKRinCAN/status/1534287413304037376

Closer to home, it was the final day of the Supply cycle yesterday, meaning that the Conservatives got their last Supply Day, and then the House passed the Supplementary Estimates, which ensures that departments have money to function, and that it’s more aligned with the budget, because we have a mis-match between the budget cycle and the Estimates cycle that has grown over the past few decades, and when Scott Brison tried to align them when he was at Treasury Board, not only did the civil service resist, but the opposition accused him of trying to create a “slush fund” when he was trying to allocate funds to better align the Estimates and budget, and certain proposed programmes didn’t have their submissions delivered in time. Suffice to say, Brison tried, and when he failed, the government seems to have given up on fixing this very obvious problem that goes to the heart of why Parliament exists in the first place. Suffice to say, now that the Estimates are passed, the House of Commons could theoretically rise at any point. They likely will wait until at least the end of this week so that they can get the budget implementation bill passed, as well as Bill C-5 on mandatory minimums, but considering the filibusters or other dilatory motions going on around the broadcasting bill, the official languages bill, and the gun control bill, I would not be surprised if the House Leader decides to just go home a few days early and let everyone cool down over the summer.

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Roundup: Caucus confidence and garbage legislation

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It is now day one-hundred-and-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has turned over several of the bodies of Russian fighters from that steel mill in Mariupol where they were holed up for weeks. Missiles continue to fall over other parts of the country, and president Volodymyr Zelensky warns that Russians are targeting the city of Zaporizhzhia in the south, as a means of advancing further into the centre of the country. As well, here is a thread about Russia’s cyberwar in Ukraine, and how they route Ukrainian internet through Russian servers when they take over territory as a means of controlling information.

Meanwhile, a lot of attention has been paid to the confidence vote that UK prime minister Boris Johnson was subjected to within his own party, which he barely survived, and at a much lower margin than other UK prime ministers survived theirs before they made their political exits. With 42 percent of your caucus against you, you cannot survive more than a few more months. It’s simply untenable. Of course, Michael Chong had to pipe up to make yet another pitch for his (garbage) Reform Act and trying to goad the Liberals into signing onto it, which is wrong, and tiresome. Like the Liberals did when Chong first proposed the bill, there was this assertion that this would be what would do in Stephen Harper because his caucus must hate him, erm, except they didn’t. And Chong is making the very same assertion here, which seems to be yet one more Conservative falling into the trap of believing that people hate Trudeau as much as they do. Additionally, as I have stated time and time again, MPs did not need Chong’s garbage legislation to be able to oust leaders—they already had that power if they chose to use it. Putting a legislative framework around those powers only curtails them by stealth, while pretending to “give” MPs powers they already have, it absolutely limited senators’ powers within their caucuses, and it gave leaders even more insulation by putting up thresholds to levels beyond what would ordinarily have been considered fatal to a leader. It doesn’t need to spread further.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1533902493322776576

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Roundup: Jubilee Weekend (not that you’d know it in Canada)

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It’s day one hundred-and-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv has once again come under attack from Russian missiles, who claimed this was about hitting tanks donated by Western countries. Ukrainians, meanwhile, say they have reclaimed Sievierokonetsk in a counter-offensive, but this has not yet been verified. Ukrainians are taking losses, between 60 to 100 per day which is more than the Americans took daily than in the worst of the Vietnam War, but this may also galvanize to them fight even harder as more advanced weapons from allies arrive. Here are stories from the southern city of Mykolaiv, where the shelling is constant.

Meanwhile, NATO is kicking off two weeks of naval exercise in the Baltic Sea which will include Sweden and Finland, while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been meeting with Turkey’s president to try and solve the impasse of Turkey blocking Sweden and Finland’s entry into the alliance.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1533516244124590085

Closer to home, it was the celebrations of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee over the weekend, even though the Canadian government kept things as low-key as they possibly could. I have real trepidation about the way in which this government seems to think of Canadian monarchy as an afterthought, because it inevitably leads to politicisation when Conservatives put in more effort, and that is the absolute last thing we want or need. It’s an institution for everyone, and needs to be treated as such. There were, nevertheless, a few CanCon elements in the celebrations in London, as well as some royal Kremlinology about what it all signalled. Tangentially related to the celebration was the 150th anniversary of the Governor General’s Foot Guards in Ottawa, who got their own parade.

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Roundup: A barometer we should pay attention to

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It is now day one hundred-and-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine says that they have reclaimed a large chuck of Severodonetsk, foiling Russia’s attempt to move further into the city. There are concerns that Russia is trying to dig in and stay in those eastern cities for the long haul.

For that one hundredth day of the war, here’s a look back at Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s nightly video addresses, and what they have done for his people. Here is a timeline of the events of the invasion, as well as an attempted accounting of some of costs that this war has taken on the people of Ukraine. As well, a museum in Kyiv is collecting materials left behind by Russian forces and making art out of it.

Closer to home, the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the extremely low turnout from the Ontario election continues, and that has Turnout Nerds and Proportional Representation fanboys out in force, to little avail. Most corrosive were the rounds of people who insisted that because the turnout was so low, that Ford had formed a majority government with something like 20 percent of eligible voters and that this was somehow illegitimate and that they should petition the lieutenant governor to deny him the ability to form government (erm, except that he is already in government, and simply has a new legislature). While you have some people trying to explain this low turnout as frustration and disengagement, where people were told time and again by media polls what the outcome was going to be so they never bothered, I do think there is something to be said about this being a measure of where we’re at, and it’s not good—and that mandatory voting would simply paper over that indicator. Of course, what this should do is prompt parties to get their acts in gear and present something that can actually excite voters and get them out to the polls, but we’re seeing cynical moves by parties who capitalise on low turnout (Ford’s Progressive Conservatives), or who try to game their so-called “vote efficiency” to have just enough turnout (federal Liberals). It’s not healthy, and we should do more about it, but the parties didn’t seem interested this time around.

https://twitter.com/Honickman/status/1532847527975915521

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Roundup: The Ontario horror show

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It is now day one hundred of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suspects that Russian forces now hold some twenty percent of the country’s territory, and asks for more Western weapons. Russians hold most of Severodonetsk, and they are moving onto its twin of Lysychansk, which will help them secure control over the Luhansk province. Meanwhile, Ukrainians who return to their homes often find them to be destroyed, with all of their possessions.

Closer to home, the Ontario election was, well, a disaster for everyone involved. Ford gets a larger seat count on a hollow platform he won’t know what to do with, while most of his experienced performers have left politics. The NDP lost nine seats and still think they’re the “strongest” they’ve ever been, but Andrea Horwath did say it was time to step down, as well she should have. Steven Del Duca also stepped down after he lost his own seat, as well he should have. Voter turnout was extremely low, which tells you that people had nothing to vote for, but this breakdown of how each party lost votes is pretty instructive about the level of disillusionment with each, for what that’s worth as the opposition parties start to rebuild. (My full column on the election will be out later today).

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1532558713948708887

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1532535636485455872

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Roundup: Bill Morneau has learned no lessons

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We’re now around day ninety-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and…there wasn’t a lot of news I could find, other than the fact that Russia continues to pound cities in the Donbas region. Germany says they will send more advanced radar and anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, but we’ll see how timely their deliveries really are.

Closer to home, Bill Morneau delivered a speech where he says he’s worried about the economic progress of this country because he says he doesn’t see enough focus on growth (never mind that it’s the dominant focus of the last two budgets). But then he went on about how he wants some kind of “permanent commission” to focus on said economic growth, and I just cannot even. It’s called Parliament. David Reevely lays this out in the thread below, but I will add that Morneau really was never any good at being in government. He kept trying to play things like he was still in the corporate world, where it was about who you knew, and it was paired with the mindset of this government where if you mean well, then the ends justify the means, so rules got broken an awful lot. That’s why Morneau was eventually forced to resign over his role in the CatastrophWE. And he demonstrates with this speech that he has learned precisely zero lessons.

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