Tag Archives: Ukraine

Roundup: Using the invasion of Ukraine for crass domestic gain

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We are now on day seven of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv still stands, in spite of the convoy of Russian vehicles headed in its direction. Russians bombed Kyiv’s main television tower, as well as a Holocaust cemetery, which really bolster’s Putin’s claim that he is trying to “de-Nazify” the country. In fact, Russia is bombing more cities and inflicting more damage, and killing more civilians, which led to a response by the International Criminal Court to indict Putin for war crimes. Oh, and to compound the humanitarian crisis, some of Ukraine’s neighbours aren’t accepting non-white refugees who were in Ukraine, which is a big problem.

Here in Canada, yet more incremental sanctions were announced, along with more aid and supplies being sent, and new measures include ships that are of Russian origin or registry being denied entry into Canadian waters. Chrystia Freeland is warning that more severe sanctions will hurt Canadians as well, which people keep forgetting is a reason why sanctions can be so tough to implement, but here we are.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are making a number of demands which are not necessarily reasonable, such as their continued insistence that the Russian Ambassador be expelled, and the recall of our Ambassador in Moscow. Expelling ambassadors should be the absolute last case situation, because we need channels to talk, especially when the going gets tough. It was more justified with the Iranians because they were running an intimidation ring from their embassy, which does not appear to be the case with the Russians. The fundamental problem is that the Conservatives have adopted this mindset where they treat diplomacy as a cookie you get for good behaviour, which is not the point of diplomacy. That’s why we have diplomacy—to do the hard stuff, and you can’t do that if you keep kicking out opposing ambassadors every time you get in a huff about something. It’s poor practice, and is frankly a specious understanding of how the world works. Even more to the point, their continued insistence that this crisis is a good idea to push their “ethical oil” nonsense and to make the case for “drill, baby, drill,” no matter that it is a literal impossibility to meet Europe’s energy needs any time before the end of the decade, by which point we should be into rapid decarbonisation. But they have narratives that they are wedded to, no matter how crass or inappropriate, and they’re going to stick with them.

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QP: Repeating the same Ukraine questions once again

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The prime minister was present for QP today, as was his deputy, so we would see how the questions about the war in Ukraine would shape up with him in the room. They weren’t much improved—or different for that matter. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador and to recall ours from Moscow, because they seem to believe that diplomacy is a cookie for good behaviour, which it absolutely is not. Justin Trudeau said that the foreign minister had summoned the Russian Ambassador to be admonished, but that they were keeping all tools on the table, which one assumes includes diplomacy. Bergen then demanded visa-free travel to Canada for Ukrainian refugees, for which Trudeau read that they have bolstered capacity and priorities Ukrainian applications. Bergen then stated that the longer Canadian oil and gas stays in the ground, the more Putin wins, and demanded a policy of drilling. Trudeau noted their supports for Alberta, their support for the Trans Mountain expansion, and that they were working toward a cleaner future. Bergen then pivoted to the Emergencies Act invocation, and insisted that the only used it for political reasons, for which Trudeau read that law enforcement found it essential, and accused the Conservatives of being unable to pick a lane. Bergen then demanded that all federal vaccine mandates be lifted and accused the government of “dragging their knuckles” because vaccine mandates are “so yesterday.” Trudeau reminded her that they base their decisions based on science.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc and wanted to ensure that sanctions would remain in place until the last Russian soldier was out of Ukraine, and Trudeau largely agreed with the notion. Blanchet then worried about the rhetoric of using the war in Ukraine as a propaganda tool for western Canadian oil and gas, for which Trudeau noted that while Canada imports negligible amounts of Russian oil and gas, they need to work with Europe to end their dependence on it, talking about a clean energy future.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video in French to ask about sanctions on Belarus, for which Trudeau reminded him that they already imposed them for their complicity in the invasion of Ukraine, and that they were looking at future ones. Singh switched to English to demand a barrier-free process for Ukrainians seeking refuge in Canada, and Trudeau note that they have been preparing this for a month now.

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QP: Support for Ukraine, but what about “ethical oil”?

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While the prime minister was around, and would give a press conference after QP, and make a statement in the Chamber later in the evening, he was not present for QP itself, though his deputy was. Candice Bergen led off, saying that many of the country’s actions were too little too late and demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador and to recall ours from Moscow—because they believe diplomacy is a cookie for good behaviour. Chrystia Freeland rose to say that Canadians were united, and that this was about freedom versus tyranny, but didn’t address Bergen’s demand. Bergen said she agreed with the sentiments, and wanted visa-free travel for Ukrainians to Canada, and Freeland rose to address the previous question and noted that there were Russian officials who stood against the regime and she urged those officials in Canada not to be complicit, and said all options were on the table. Bergen demanded that the country end its “dependence” on Russian oil—of which, vanishingly little actually flows into this county—and to send Canadian oil to Europe. Freeland noted that the sanctions on Russia are having an effect, and hurting their oil exports was one way. Luc Berthold took over in French to demand the expulsion of the Russian ambassador, and Freeland took the opportunity to repeat her initial statement about unity in French. Berthold then repeated the demand for visa-free travel, and Freeland recounted news from her own family in Ukraine who decided to stay and fight, and that Canada would support them as well as those fleeing.

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Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he gave a paean to the bravery of Ukrainian people, and pledged Bloc support to the government’s actions, and wondered what else they could do to help. Freeland recited her talking points about sanctions hurting “Fortress Russia.” Therrien asked if they can waive visas or take other actions, and Freeland noted that they have already started to welcome Ukrainians, including those currently in Canada and unable to return home.

Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP by video, and after a false start, and demanded Canada do more to help Ukrainian refugees, to which Freeland assured him they were already doing so in a united fashion. Jenny Kwan took over in English to make the same demand, and Freeland spoke of her pride in the brave resistance of Ukrainians, and said that of course they were helping Ukrainian refugees with more details coming soon.

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Roundup: SWIFT justice, and central bank sanctions that will hurt

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The fighting continues in Ukraine, and Russian forces continue to be held at bay, and they have been unable to take Kyiv. Putin’s plans for a swift takeover so that he can install a puppet regime continue to be thwarted, and the only thing he has managed to do is get the West fully onside against him—much faster than anyone possibly could have anticipated.

To that end, resistance to kicking Russian banks out of the SWIFT system melted pretty quickly (considered a “nuclear option” for financial sanctions), and even more crucial was a strategy to target Russia’s central bank, so that its foreign currency reserves held outside of the country, which they were hoping to use to ride out the worst of the sanctions, won’t be available to them, creating a much bigger financial problem for them than they had anticipated. Central to this effort was Chrystia Freeland, who has been a strong performer behind-the-scenes in getting allies onside. In the meantime, Canada is sending another $25 million in non-lethal aid for things that Ukraine needs, such as body armour and gas masks, but more lethal aid is still being coordinated with NATO allies. As well, Canada joined other allies in closing our airspace to Russian airlines, and two of our cable companies have banned RT from their airwaves, given that they are a Russian propaganda arm. On top of that, we have confirmation that the Communications Security Establishment is actively using its resources to defend Ukraine against cyber-attacks, which is a significant development. Less helpful is the Conservatives demanding that we expel the Russian ambassador and recall ours from Moscow—we still need diplomats, and diplomacy is not a cookie you get for good behaviour, and it astounds me that Conservatives still don’t get that.

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Of course, the big worry remains Putin and his nuclear arsenal, which has been put on high alert. Ukraine’s foreign minister says this is simply an attempt by Putin to raise the stakes in advance of peace talks, which they aren’t going to be intimidated by. NATO’s former deputy secretary agrees that this is a threat that Putin has used before and is a bit of crying wolf, so I guess we’ll see, but it’s certainly a concerning escalation in light of the fact that much of what Putin has done doesn’t make a lot of sense to rational actors.

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Roundup: More sanctions, more pressure on allies

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Day three of fighting in Ukraine, and Russian forces have not overtaken the country, as they perhaps thought they would have by now. Prime minister Justin Trudeau announced yet another round of sanctions that both targeted Putin and his inner circle personally, but also took aim at Belarus and its president, as Russia transited through that country as part of the invasion, and seeks to hurt Russia’s allies. Trudeau also openly said that Canada is calling on its allies to have Russia removed from the SWIFT system, which seems to me to put pressure on those European holdouts. On top of that, the government announced more special immigration measures for Ukrainians, that Canada was preparing to move another 3400 troops to shore up NATO operations upon request, and matching donations to the Red Cross for their Ukrainian relief efforts. Oh, and sub-nationally, a number of provinces with publicly-owned liquor stores announced that they were pulling Russian products from their shelves (but it’s the LCBO that will make this hurt for Russia, as it is the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world).

The thing that Canada and NATO will not be doing is enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, no matter how much Ukraine asks for it, because this would involve shooting down Russian aircraft, and that would essentially be declaring war, and then it’s the big time. Nobody wants that—especially not that Putin has nuclear weapons. And no matter how many times reporters ask about it, the answer is the same: no. (In my next YouTube episode, Steve Saideman and I discuss this very issue, which will be available for Patreon subscribers on Sunday).

In the meantime, there are some wild stories coming out of Ukraine—the 13 border guards on Snake Island who told the Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” before they were shelled; the woman confronting a Russian soldier and giving him sunflower seeds so that they’ll grow from his corpse when he’s buried; and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy filming himself and top officials in the streets and that they are determined to stay put, showing that the disinformation that he has fled the country is not true.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497448650003423235

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Roundup: Reaction to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine

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Russian forces have been advancing in Ukraine, but not without opposition. Shelling continues against several Ukrainian cities and into Kyiv itself, as people are taking shelter in the metro. Closer to home, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced another round of tougher sanctions against Russian oligarchs and other key leaders, and there is talk that yet more sanctions are on the way, but it also sounds like there is some difficulty in getting all of our allies on-side, and the thing about these kinds of sanctions is that everyone needs to do them so that there aren’t loopholes that Russia can slip through. (Trudeau also announced measures to help Canadians in Ukraine get safe passage to neighbouring countries, as well as expeditated immigration processing for Ukrainians).

But one of the biggest measures—cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global financial transaction system—has not yet been implemented because Europeans are balking (though Canada has reportedly been pushing for this, along with the UK). Canada is somewhat fortunate because we are less exposed to Russian trade and money than other allies, but it’s that exposure which will make sanctions harder on Western allies the tougher they are on Russia—and that’s something that a lot of the talking heads can’t seem to get their heads around. If you look at what European countries are trying to get carve-outs for, it’s because they don’t want to lose the Russian money in their economies. And that’s a tough pill to swallow, especially as all of our economies are still recovering from the pandemic recession.

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Where this will hurt us especially is higher world oil prices, as cutting Russia out of the market will further restrict supply at a time where energy shortages in certain countries have turned to oil to fill that gap, creating demand and limiting supply. That will mean higher gasoline prices in Canada, and while these higher prices will be good for the Alberta economy (oh, look—one more boom for them to piss away), it’s going to be felt in the inflation data, which will have more people lighting their hair on fire, demanding Something Must Be Done, but they won’t come out and spell out that they mean wage and price controls, or a new NEP. Jason Kenney, unable to read the room, is trying to make this about a new pitch for Alberta’s so-called Ethical Oil™, and we have federal Conservatives demanding a fast-tracked LNG infrastructure to export to Europe, but seriously, that’s a multi-year and multi-billion-dollar investment that is going to be short-lived the fast were decarbonise our economies.

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Roundup: Emergency orders lifted before the Senate votes were cast

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By late afternoon, yesterday, prime minister Justin Trudeau ended the emergency orders, at a time when the Senate had not yet voted to confirm them. This, of course, led to numerous cries from opponents that they had helped to end it (declaring victory for pushing on an open door), and accusations that Trudeau knew he would lose the Senate vote so pulled the plug beforehand. And then there were the questions about what changed between Monday and yesterday that made it okay to lift the restrictions, of which the official line is “advice from law enforcement,” but one also suspects was that they might have felt it inappropriate to lift it before it had even been brought to a vote, but conversely didn’t want to keep the orders for too much longer after that. I’m not sure. Suffice to say, it’s over, and all of the cries of “tyranny!” and “Trudeau is doing this to increase his own power!” seem pretty stupid right about now.

Speaking of the Senate, they were progressing through a second full day of speeches with no end—or vote—in sight, when the order was lifted and they simply adjourned debate. This is something of an indictment on how the Senate handled this matter in terms of their schedule. They should have recalled the Chamber as soon as the Act was invoked and the emergency orders declared, so that they could receive them on the same day as the House of Commons and debate them concurrently, as it’s not a piece of legislation that has to pass one Chamber before the other, but they didn’t, and their planned Friday recall was cancelled by the police action, further delaying the debate. And then some of the same problems that the House of Commons saw presented themselves in the Senate as well—that absolutely everyone wanted to have their own speech on the record, no matter that having something new to say diminished with each passing speech, but this is what the “new” Senate is becoming—a debating society rather than a deliberative legislative body. And while sure, there were some good speeches, there were also some doozies that repeated the same falsehoods and info ops that the occupation organizers were counting on, so well done everyone.

Meanwhile, Matt Gurney calls for more information as to what constituted the continued use of powers in advance of their being lifted. Andrew Coyne puts the nine days of the emergency orders into perspective versus how it has been portrayed by bad faith actors across social media and certain political parties.

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Roundup: Senate debate continues on emergency orders

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The Senate spent the day debating the emergency orders, but did not reach a vote by end of day. (This doesn’t really meet the Act’s requirement that the order be debated “without interruption” either, much as the House of Commons’ Speaker made a bad ruling around statutory interpretation). We heard many of the same concerns from Conservative senators as from their Commons counterparts, and a lot of questions as to why the orders are still needed if the occupation in Ottawa and the border blockades are over, plus questions about the special committee of MPs and senators that the statute demands, and the fact that while they are probably going to be sworn to secrecy, it won’t have them sworn in like they would be for NSICOP, so they likely won’t get particularly sensitive intelligence. That committee was still being negotiated between the party leaders in the Commons and Senate caucus leaders last I heard, but is likely waiting for the Senate to confirm the emergency orders, before it can be established, and at this pace, the orders may be lifted by the time we get there. It is worth noting that the Government Leader in the Senate, Senator Marc Gold, spent some five hours answering questions from other senators, like he should be in this kind of a situation. It’s just too bad he’s not a member of Cabinet like he should be, because this is the kind of situation where that really matters.

Elsewhere, the Commons’ Finance committee heard from department officials about the freezing of the bank accounts of occupation organizers and some of its participants. It was reiterated once again that they did not have donor lists, the RCMP did not turn any over to banks, and that with the occupation ended, the RCMP was working with the banks to “unfreeze” those accounts, given that the whole point was to make it uncomfortable or difficult for them to remain. So what of the fictional “Briane” and other supposedly small-time donors for whom it is claimed that they had their accounts frozen? That it’s “very unlikely” they would be, given the data the banks are working with. Not that this has stopped the continued insistence that accounts are being seized (untrue) or frozen retroactively (also not true), not only from Conservative MPs, but also some talking heads and columnists acting credulously echoing these made-up allegations, because they are sold on the narrative that Trudeau wants to punish dissenters.

In the meantime, Rideau Hall to go to the extraordinary step of putting out a release to tell people to quit contacting them because they don’t have anything to do with a declaration of non-confidence in the government, despite what a disinformation meme going around social media claims as it encourages people to call them and demand a non-confidence vote. (Seriously, guys—only MPs can vote non-confidence). And to add to that, DND was flooded with calls demanding military protection to the occupiers from police, under the lunatic notion that they were part of some covert United Nations invasion force—because remember, this occupation was packed to the gills with conspiracy theorists. And going around social media were claims that the Sûreté du Québec officers (the provincial police force) were “proof” of New World Order forces because they had different uniforms and “didn’t speak English.” These occupiers are so credulous about such absolute nonsense, but refuse to believe in science, vaccines, civics, or democracy. It’s enough to make one despair about where we are headed as a society, especially as we have a political party that is desperate to earn their favour.

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QP: Final arguments before the emergency measures vote

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I was initially unsure that there would be a Question Period today, given the solid 18-hour “debates” that took place over the weekend, but lo, there it was on the calendar, and all of the leaders were in place for it, with Deputy Speaker Chris d’Entremeont in the big chair. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she cited experts that said that the government had all of the tools it needed to clear the occupation without the Emergencies Act, and demanded to know the criteria to end the orders. Trudeau read that the measures supplemented local police, and that they would lift the measures as soon was feasible. Bergen demanded to know what particular powers were needed, and Trudeau listed a number of issues that he said proved provinces and municipalities needed the measures. Bergen demanded an apology from Trudeau for calling the extremists who organised the occupation racists, misogynists and of holding “unacceptable views,” and Trudeau declined, saying people can disagree with the government and that their Charter rights are protected. Luc Berthold took over in French, and quoted Nathaniel Erskine-Smith’s reluctance on the measures and worried the prime minister would make it a confidence measure. Trudeau repeated his list of events to justify the orders. Berthold then raised the issue of Joël Lightbound before repeating the demand for an apology in French, and Trudeau repeated his talking points about Canadians speaking together. 

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and demanded the emergency orders be lifted now that the occupation was over, but Trudeau replied that they were still in a precarious situation as they needed to remain vigilant from efforts to re-establish blockades. Blanchet demanded to know one place in the country that still needed the measures, and Trudeau said that once the orders were lifted, they would look at how to better empower police to prevent future actions.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video and lamented the impact of the occupations and blockades on workers, and noted the support for small businesses but wanted supports for workers. Trudeau praised their efforts over the past two years, and said they were moving forward with “measures to support them.” Singh repeated the question in French, and Trudeau repeated his response. 

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Roundup: Arrests begun as overwrought debate underway

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Debate on the emergency orders began yesterday with all of the leaders staking out their positions. And I will note that there is a legitimate argument from the Conservatives that the Emergencies Act shouldn’t have been invoked—but then they take argument that Trudeau didn’t do enough beforehand to deal with the situation, never mind that the Ottawa Police are the police of jurisdiction, that Doug Ford did virtually nothing to help never mind that this was well within his jurisdictional purview, and of course, they argue that Trudeau caused this by being mean to the extremists who organised this whole thing, and that he hasn’t capitulated to their demands. And thus, a good point is lost in the fog of utterly dishonest partisan posturing. It should also be noted that civil liberties groups are going to court to oppose the Act’s imposition, but their otherwise valid points are divorced from the reality that this is not a peaceful or legal protest—it’s an event organized by anti-government extremists. This is not a good faith protest, it’s an illegal occupation, and that colours events.

With this in mind, the House of Commons will be sitting all weekend in order to debate the emergency order the fact that they will be sitting almost entirely around the clock over the long weekend means that they have speaking slots for virtually every single MP, which is egregious and overkill. If anything, it’s the height of parliamentary narcissism. Yes, this is an unprecedented action, but you do not need every single MP to stand up and read a prepared speech that parrots the talking points that their party leader has decided upon. That’s not debate, it’s not edifying, and it’s just an exercise in providing clips for MPs’ websites and social media channels. It defeats the purpose of what Parliament is about, and debases the point of debate (not to mention that everyone is already burned out from the past three weeks of insanity and this robs the employees, staffers and most especially the interpreters of the long weekend that they all needed). If they haven’t made up their minds on the imposition of the emergency orders by end of day tomorrow, then maybe public life isn’t for them.

Update: Sittings in both Chambers were cancelled due to the ongoing police action, so we’ll see when they resume. The point stands, however.

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