Tag Archives: Ukraine

Roundup: Contradictions and poor intelligence practices

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There has been a number of competing threads in the ongoing Emergencies Act public inquiry, and a lot of police testimony that is contradictory, and contradicting their own documentary evidence. For example, one senior Ottawa police officer is claiming that they had the tow trucks all lined up and ready to go without the invocation of the Act—erm, except the documents don’t show that at all, and that they needed the Act to secure those services. There has also been a lot of alarming signs about the quality of police intelligence about the make-up of the occupation (which many leaders subsequently ignored anyway). The OPP did see an increasing risk of violence the longer it dragged on, particularly by those in the occupation who felt they were “at war” with the federal government, along with growing anti-police sentiment (presumably because police weren’t doing their bidding to arrest members of the government). The Commission has agreed to hear CSIS’ evidence behind closed doors.

Here’s former CSIS analyst Jessica Davis on the quality of that intelligence, and yikes:

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 245:

Both Russian and NATO forces carried out annual nuclear exercises, while Russia carries on its false narrative that Ukrainians plan to detonate a “dirty bomb” on their own soil in order to blame Russia—information operations entirely. While this was happening, Russian forces targeted 40 towns in Ukraine, killing at least two more people.

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Roundup: A hospitalized interpreter should be a wake-up call, but probably won’t be

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The inevitable has happened, and a parliamentary interpreter collapsed during a Senate committee meeting after an acoustic shock and was sent to hospital as a result, when the committee chair decided to go ahead with a meeting despite the fact that two witnesses appearing by video did not have appropriate headsets. And to add to matters, this interpreter was a freelancer and not in the union, so they won’t be getting sick pay for this injury either, given that they were filling in for the full-time, unionised interpreters who are on leave for the injuries they are all facing because of hybrid sessions and meetings, and the fact that the vast majority of MPs and senators simply do not care about their well-being, or the fact that these kinds of acoustic injuries can lead to permanent hearing loss. They don’t care because it would mean giving up the luxury of staying in their ridings rather than coming to Ottawa when they don’t want to, even if it means treating the interpretation staff like furniture. (And as we’ve established, they cannot simply hire more interpreters because there aren’t any more to hire—they’re not even graduating enough to meet the level of attrition from retirements and those quitting from injuries).

To add to this was Government House Leader Mark Holland appearing at the Procedure and House Affairs Committee, where they are debating extending hybrid sittings, possibly permanently, and he spoke about his suicide attempt after his 2011 election loss and used that tale as justification for extending hybrid. And as brave as Holland is to share that story, I find myself deeply disturbed by the fact that he is using it to push for a morally bankrupt proposition around making hybrid sittings permanent when he knows the human cost to them. I am also appalled that the lesson is trying to be “when an MP is struggling, let them work from home” rather than “when an MP is struggling, let them take the time they need to get better and not create an unrealistic and dangerous expectation of presenteeism.” MPs are allowed sick days and leaves of absence. They do not need to be on call 24/7, or to vote on every single issue. There were rules about pairing for absences for decades, and they worked just fine. It’s the same with the groups who keep appearing at PROC, such as Equal Voice, who insist that we need to make hybrid permanent to let more women with children participate in Parliament—it ignores the human toll on the interpreters (and when you raise it, they simply handwave it away with the magic words “we need to find a solution”), and frankly these MPs have the luxury of options when it comes to arrangements they can make. Hybrid or virtual sittings injures interpreters. If there is a technological solution, Parliament has been ignoring it. It is frankly morally reprehensible that they continue to have this debate at the expense of the health of these interpreters. It would be great if this publicised injury and hospitalisation were a wake-up call, but I am frankly too cynical at this point to believe that is going to happen.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 244:

Russia continues to claim that Ukraine is planning to use a “dirty bomb,” which sounds increasingly like pretext for Russia to detonate one, and that they have been using their occupation of the Zaphorizhzhia nuclear plant to build it.

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Roundup: Ford tries to escape testifying

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Some drama is emerging from the Emergencies Act public inquiry, as we find out that Doug Ford and Sylvia Jones, his then-solicitor general, have refused to be interviewed by the Commissioner, and have refused to testify before it. Recall that just last week, Doug Ford said that he hadn’t been asked to testify when asked (because it makes no sense that he and Jones were not on the list). Well, today, we found out that they were asked, they refused, and now the Commissioner plans to summon them, but Ford intends to challenge that summons under the rubric of parliamentary privilege, which would seem to me to be abusing it, but there you have it.

https://twitter.com/SkinnerLyle/status/1584624171598086145

Meanwhile, the acting Ottawa police chief was testifying, and it was a lot more of the same when it comes to police not taking the threat of an occupation seriously, and them essentially ignoring the intelligence that was being forwarded to them, and lo, these “protesters” turned into an illegal occupation. There was also an email filed from RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki who said that they hadn’t exhausted all tools before the Act was invoked, for what that’s worth.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1584574961339203586

https://twitter.com/aballinga/status/1584612932595638275

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 243:

Ukrainian officials are claiming greater success in shooting down drones attacking electrical infrastructure, but worries are now that Russia will try to detonate a “dirty bomb” within their territory as they have essentially announced the intention to do so and blame it on the Ukrainians doing it to frame Russia. If it wasn’t such a terrifying prospect, it would be really, really stupid. Meanwhile, doctors in the country are worried about spending the winter months in the basements of hospitals as electrical systems are under attack.

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Roundup: Singh wants to interfere

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Because things feel the need to keep getting dumber, it appears that Jagmeet Singh wrote a letter to Justin Trudeau to try to get him to interfere with the Bank of Canada’s planned rate hike. This is both dumb and dangerous because you do not interfere with the central bank! We had a political crisis about the independence of the central bank in 1961, and in the end, the Bank’s independence was strengthened because it’s important for a central bank’s credibility that their policy statements can be believed by the markets. If the government of the day undermines their credibility, then they are useless in sending signals, and right now, the signal is that they are going to get inflation under control, come hell or high water, because they don’t want it to get entrenched, and letting a wage spiral happen will help to make it entrenched. Yes, many of the drivers are outside of the Bank’s control, such as food price inflation, but it’s trying to keep those expectations from spreading further into the market, and they can do that, so long as governments don’t undermine them, and don’t come up with monetary policy ideas that fuel inflation so that the Bank needs to rates even higher.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 242:

The Russian-installed authorities of occupied Kherson are advising residents to leave in advance of an expected Ukrainian advance. Meanwhile, Russia is intensifying its attacks on power stations and other critical civilian infrastructure as a means of demoralising the Ukrainians, but that doesn’t seem to be working as planned. Elsewhere, NATO surveillance craft are flying just outside of Ukrainian airspace, and providing a look at Russian movements in the region.

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Roundup: The transcript doesn’t show interference

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It turns out that the recording of that meeting of RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki coming down on her Nova Scotia team in the wake of the mass shooting in Portapique was found after all, and lo, it doesn’t actually show political interference. (Transcript here). She does say that she told the minister’s office the information on the firearms used would be released (we know that she was contacted by Bill Blair’s chief of staff, not Blair himself), and when the information was not released, she said she had to apologise to the minister and the prime minister, but there is no mention of a promise to release that information. In fact, the only time the word “promised” was used was when Lucki said that she was promised a timeline of events and a map, and she didn’t receive those either, and spoke about feeling disrespected because she wasn’t given it. Lucki did at one point bring up “legislation” the government was working on around guns (it was actually an Order in Council), which Lucki said was supposed to help police, but again, there was no mention of pressure from the minister about it. She was politically aware of what was going on, because she would have been consulted in its development (which had been going on for months at this point), and it should be stressed that political awareness is not interference. Commissioners are supposed to be politically aware. That’s part of their job, just like the Chief of Defence Staff.

The Conservatives, however, took that same transcript, cherry picked a couple of lines about feeling the need to apologise, and took this as “proof” of interference, that either Lucki or Blair had lied, and demanded both of their resignations, and launched a point of privilege in the House of Commons to the effect of saying that Blair lied to them. Because this is what they do—take everything in bad faith, and generate a bunch of clips for shitposts, then fundraise off of them. It’s not even truthiness at this point—it’s out and out bad faith, lies, and deception. And you don’t see the media calling bullshit on it and pointing to what is in the transcript, they just both-sides it, and their talking heads will waffle around it. The talking heads also don’t try to follow all of the information and put it together, where they would see that the allegations of interference don’t actually make sense. I won’t recap the column, but suffice to say, there was no need to interfere because they had all of the information, and the people who claim they were are actually arguing for less transparency. It’s bizarre all around.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 240:

Ukrainian forces have bombarded Russian positions in the occupied Kherson region in the country’s south, targeting their resupply routes along a major river. Russians shelled the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1583430788468838403

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Roundup: The drivers of food price inflation

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The September inflation numbers were released yesterday morning, and they are still cooling, but not quite by as much as anticipated, in part because food price inflation continues to stay high. While the temptation to conclude that this is entirely the fault of the grocery oligopoly engaged in price gouging, and boy howdy are the NDP trying to make this a Thing, we know from the economic data that it’s not actually the case. And it doesn’t take too much digging to know what some of the drivers of this food price inflation really are:

  • For cereal and bakery products, that’s because the drought on the Prairies destroyed 40 percent of crop yields last year
  • The blight known as “coffee rust” is affecting those crops, and is in large part because of monoculture
  • Drought has also taken out things like the chilis necessary for things like sriracha sauce, or the mustard crops used in condiments
  • Fresh fruit and vegetables are, again, susceptible to droughts in places like California, or the hurricanes that struck Florida
  • Fish and seafood are facing collapsing stocks, which again, drives up prices, and some harvesting seasons have been impacted by hurricanes
  • Dairy and meat has seen higher input costs (again, drought taking out feed crops) and avian flu ravaging poultry flocks is also driving up prices

As you can see, climate change is a big driver for most of these. Our food production is very vulnerable to it, and that is causing a lot of these price increases, and we need to be aware of that and stop couching it euphemisms about “inclement weather” or the like.

Meanwhile, Chrystia Freeland has told her Cabinet colleagues that they need to keep their spending priorities in check, and if they want higher spending, they need to be prepared to find savings in their departments to pay for them. While we have seen that the government’s fiscal stance is already pretty tight, Freeland needs to manage expectations right now—if we do go into a recession, the government can’t keep up the same supports they did during the pandemic, and broad spending programmes could wind up fuelling inflation and undoing the work the Bank of Canada is doing to tame it. It’s unlikely to really blunt any of the attacks from the opposition, and Poilievre in particular because he’ll just make up more nonsense that sounds like economics but is just bullshit, and certain people will spoon it up and legacy media will both-sides it, but regardless, Freeland looks to be steering the Liberals back on a course toward the brand of fiscal prudence and away from trying to capture more of the left, but perhaps that’s because they have put a mark in that territory with things like childcare and know that there are voters at the centre that the Conservatives are abandoning that they would rather pick up instead. Either way, it’s an interesting move.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 238:

As Russians continue to bomb power stations around the country, Ukrainians are facing rolling blackouts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called out the Iranians for accepting “blood money” for these drone.  Meanwhile, Putin has declared martial law in the four occupied territories in Ukraine, giving his Russian regional governors emergency powers to enact new restrictions.

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Roundup: A potential recruiting ground

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It was outgoing Ottawa mayor Jim Watson’s turn to present to the Emergencies Act public inquiry yesterday, and it sounds like he was also caught up in the thinking that the occupation would fizzle by the first Tuesday, as the previous protest convoy had done. The most interesting part was a transcript of a call between Watson and Justin Trudeau where Trudeau accused Doug Ford of hiding from his responsibilities, given that he checked out of this process early on, and that he was doing it for political reasons. There was also concern that the OPP and RCMP had not sent as many people as they promised. In response to the reported comments at the inquiry, Ontario’s current solicitor general sent a huffy missive to media outlets saying that they don’t interfere with police operations and ensured that they provided tools for Ottawa, which clearly, they did not. Of course, Watson also said that he feels the federal and provincial governments have “equal responsibility” for policing in the occupation context, which…is not how this works.

We also learned that CSIS didn’t believe the occupation had the involve of foreign actors, but they were concerned that this was going to be a recruiting ground for harder-edged, violent far-right groups (which is a pretty coherent concern that unfortunately seems to be growing).

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 237:

Approximately one-third of Ukrainian power stations have suffered damage from Russian attacks, either from missiles or kamikaze drones, as the regime tries to demoralise the Ukrainian people.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248

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Roundup: City officials detail police incompetence

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The day at the Emergencies Act inquiry was spent with city officials, and in particular the city’s top bureaucrat and the mayor’s chief of staff. There was a lot of discussion about police believing it would be over in a few days in spite of the occupiers saying they intended to occupy the streets, and booking hotels for at least 30 days, but the police kept treating this like a non-issue until it was too late. They also insisted that the Ontario government rebuffed their calls for more police resources. At a press event in Ottawa that morning, Doug Ford professed that he supported the use of the Emergencies Act, but the testimony on display was that he was nowhere to be found in managing the crisis, having dropped out of tripartite calls, and his solicitor general shrugged and said that she can’t direct police. Out of desperation, those city officials turned to the offer from Ford’s former chief of staff, Dean French, to try and negotiate with the occupiers about moving trucks away from residential streets, and packing more of them on the Hill. Well, the Parliamentary Protective Service was outraged by that deal, particularly after they had done bomb assessments with regard to those trucks. The most hilarious revelation of the day was that city officials wanted the occupiers to park their trucks outside of downtown and to take the LRT into the city centre to protest. Laughable, and unfortunately not satire. Literally unbelievable.

Meanwhile, the CBC has a profile of Justice Rouleau, leading the commission. In pundit reaction, Matt Gurney notes that the Ontario government is not being summoned to the Emergencies Act public inquiry, in spite of their complete dereliction of duty. Susan Delacourt makes a similar observation, and in particular how Doug Ford is now presenting himself as being in lockstep with Trudeau on the invocation. Paul Wells gives his take on the day’s testimony, and what he reads into the responses.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 236:

The Russians continue to launch suicide drones on Kyiv, some of which seem to be targeting the city’s heating infrastructure. Because those drones are Iranian in origin, there is pressure on Israel, who has expertise on tackling the Iranian drone programme, to join the US and EU in providing military technology to Ukraine to fight those attacks.

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QP: Some new faces with the same repetitive lines

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Neither the prime minister nor his deputy was present today, but Pierre Poilievre was, as he so frequently is. He led off in French, and claimed that government spending caused inflation (false), and cited an RBC report saying that inflation and higher interest rates would cost families an additional $3000 next year, before he demanded that the government stop “raising taxes” (which they aren’t, but if they were, higher taxes actually fight inflation). Rachel Bendayan said that they know Canadian are facing higher expenses, which is why they are putting forward supports, that the Conservatives are opposing, such as rental supports and dental care. Poilievre switched to English to blame the federal government and the outgoing (formerly) NDP mayor of Vancouver for overdose deaths, violence and higher housing prices. He praised the election of a new mayor and demanded that the federal government “get the message.” Mark Holland said he appreciated the leader’s interest in the mayoralty campaign in Vancouver, but here in Ottawa, he was looking for support for their affordability measures. Poilievre insisted that the federal government was forcing British Columbia to “triple, triple, triple” their carbon price and demanded that they cancel the plan. Steven Guilbeault remarked that families in provinces under the federal price got their quarterly climate rebate payments on Friday. Poilievre then said the government was forcing “energy poverty” onto the Atlantic provinces, to which Guilbeault corrected him in that they are providing support for them to transition to cleaner and cheaper alternatives. Finally, Poilievre insisted that the government was just taking the carbon price revenue, and mocked the notion that it would “trickle down” back to people (false–the revenues don’t go to federal coffers and go to each province to recycle in the way they chose, including the federal climate rebates). Holland responded with some mockery about the Conservative belief in trickle-down economics, which doesn’t actually work.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he insisted that Chrystia Freeland announced a policy of “drill, baby, drill,” and that she drove the nail in the coffin of climate change. Jonathan Wilkinson noted that she did not contradict the government and that they would only move ahead on the right projects. Therrien insisted that the government was using the war in Ukraine to sell more oil, and Guilbeault reminded him that there is a rigorous environmental assessment process and that Canada is moving ahead on renewable energy, which is why Germany came to us for hydrogen.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and in French, he noted the Loblaws “price lock” on generic food products and demanded support for their Supply Day motion on making companies pay more. Rachel Bendayan recited that the government raised taxes on corporations. Alistair MacGregor took over in English, with the took credit for the Loblaws move, to which Terry Beech called for support for their affordability measures.

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Roundup: The problem with giving everyone a title

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There has been a lot of talk over the past few days about the choices that Pierre Poilievre made with announcing a shadow Cabinet as large as he did, and lo, the CBC had even more commentary over the weekend about it. Suffice to say, I’m not sure I really buy the take of “it gives everyone something to do.” Why? For starters, the whole point of a shadow Cabinet, particularly as it is practiced in the UK, is to have people who are ready to go into ministries if there is a change of government, and these are people who know their files, and can slot into the positions easily and quickly. That doesn’t really happen in Canada because our Cabinets have a lot of other considerations in play, such as regional composition, and balance with gender and other diversity, but region is the big one, and therefore, we can’t really have people ready to go into ministries because we don’t know how the regional dynamics will play at a time when they form government. (This is one reason why I’m not keen on calling critics “shadow ministers,” because they don’t have the same function). If you give everyone jobs that are not related to how Cabinet is composed, you’re not really living up to the purpose, particularly if you’re assigning made-up portfolios to certain MPs to exercise their hobby-horses as a reward for loyalty, even though as a reward goes, it’s not much because there is no added pay that goes with it.

My other problem, however, is that MPs already have a lot of work that they’re already not really doing, and many of them have offloaded those responsibilities on to independent Officers of Parliament, and that’s a problem. Committee work is supposed to take up the bulk of an MP’s time, but if they’re playing “shadow minister” for their hobby horses, they’re spending less time doing the work in committee or elsewhere that they’re supposed to be doing. There is also participation-trophy syndrome at play, where (almost) everyone gets a title (but not pay), even though we should remember that backbenchers are supposed to play important accountability roles in our parliamentary system. If we’re training the caucus to all expect titles and roles and not that they have jobs to do as backbenchers, we’re really weakening the ability of our parliament to do its job, and that is worrying. Not that the current crop of MPs in the Commons seems to care much about Parliament and its ability to function correctly, and this goes for all parties (and it’s really not helped when the prime minister has been a constitutional vandal when it comes to the Senate and the role it plays). This is a problem, and we should be talking about it, rather than patting Poilievre on the back for such a “strategic” move.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 235:

Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk say that their mayor’s office was hit by a rocket, which the Ukrainian military has not claimed responsibility for, while Russian rockets struck the town across from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Over the weekend, a missile strike seriously damaged an energy facility near Kyiv,

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1581636027487178754

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