There was another report about Europeans looking for Canadian LNG, this time in The Logic in a conversation with the German ambassador. What it did not really mention was the actual business case—only that the “long timelines” involved was a reason why former prime minister Justin Trudeau said that there wasn’t a business case for it. The thrust of the piece is that demand maybe longer than just short-term because even rapid electrification will still require some gas, however there is a boatload of context about this that journalists who have this weird fetish for LNG never actually touch on.

First of all, this discussion is only about east coast LNG, not west coast, where the conditions are different, and where there a whole bunch of potential projects that are fully permitted, and have all of their approvals in place, but aren’t moving ahead because the market isn’t showing demand (and by demand, we mean signing long-term contracts to buy the product). While this was also the case on the east coast, it’s complicated by the lack of ready supply of natural gas to liquify. Neither Quebec nor New Brunswick are about to start fracking for the sake of domestic supply, and the costs to bring a pipeline from western Canada to New Brunswick for export purposes is a lot to consider when we think about what is “long term.” That means supply is likely to becoming from the US, and that in turn will drive up local prices because they’re competing with the theoretical export terminal. To add to that, the “long term” we need to keep in mind is that these kinds of plants need to be operating for a good forty years or so to get their money’s worth. Is anyone in Europe thinking about the infrastructure necessary on that kind of time scale? Unlikely, and unlikely at that time scale for the kinds of prices that Canada would be offering, which are higher than they could get elsewhere.

What do they mean by "long-term"? Because these kinds of projects need a 40-year lifespan or so to actually get their money's worth, by which time we'll be well past net-zero goals.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-09-25T13:37:04.762Z

This is why these stories never actually make sense, because those journalists never actually talk to an energy economist about it, or if they do, it goes right out the other ear while they maintain this weird fixation on LNG. I’m not quite sure what it’s in service of—have they simply absorbed the propaganda of the oil and gas industry, who say dumb and wrong things like how our fossil fuels are the “cleanest” (they absolutely are not), or worse, that it will displace coal (the final emissions profile is not that much lower than coal, and as David Cochrane is the only journalist to push back on this talking point, there is no guarantee that they wouldn’t just use Canadian LNG in addition to coal rather than displacing it)? Or is this some kind of sad attempt at playing gotcha with Trudeau and the business case line? Because certain journalists are relentless in badgering and hectoring European leaders about this, and it’s just weird, and just completely ignorant of the facts on the ground.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on Chernihiv meant power cuts for 70,000 people. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says that members can target Russian planes that enter their airspace as necessary. And president Zelenskyy says he is ready to leave office once the war is over.

Good reads:

• Prime Minister Mark Carney headed off to the UK for trade talks, and to attend the Global Progress Summit.
• Joël Lightbound announced measures that will let Canada Post make radical changes to how it operates; the union responded by immediately going on strike.
• Steven Guilbeault’s office says that the government has no plans to repeal either the Online Streaming Act or the Online News Act in spite of American pressure.
• The National Security and Intelligence Advisor says that India has “absolutely” committed to information sharing with ongoing police investigations.
• In case you were worried, Russia has not been probing our airspace the way it is with NATO countries bordering with Ukraine.
• The federal civil service cut student hiring by about twenty percent last year (which is absolutely going to have a detrimental effect in the future).
• More than 880,000 Canadians’ phone numbers and emails were stolen by hackers in a data breach and used in fraudulent message schemes.
• The interim PBO is using some choice language about his read on the deficit projections, and looks like he took the wrong lessons from his predecessor.
• The US ambassador is suggesting/threatening that they might “have a look at” travel pre-clearance given the drop in tourism (as though that’s going to help).
• Here is a deep dive into the problems in the Industrial and Technological Benefits system that is supposed to provide offsets for foreign military acquisitions.
• Here is a look at the all of the talk about inflation, and why it’s not government spending that’s driving it like Poilievre claims.
• Women and LGBTQ+ advocacy groups are calling on the government not to gut their funding in the upcoming budget, given everything going on in the world.
• Liberal MP Yvan Baker is apparently mulling a provincial leadership bid.
• Former NDP MPs Peter Julian and Matthew Green are launching a volunteer grassroots renewal process for the party.
• Doug Ford moved to make speed cameras illegal in the province and called it an “affordability measure” and the useless provincial opposition said nothing.
• Unsurprisingly, Doug Ford is also having a misleading meltdown over the federal factum at the Supreme Court on the Notwithstanding Clause challenge.
• Ontario’s chief justice is calling for more judges for the province.
• Eager for more distractions, Danielle Smith is directing her justice minister to tinker with MAID and having police resist the federal gun buyback.
• Paul Wells recounts how the Conservatives spent Wednesday’s Bloc Supply Day debate beclowning themselves in the House of Commons.

Odds and ends:

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lzohmwao5k2x

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