Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: NSIRA spanks Global Affair’s intelligence program

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A long-delayed public release of NSIRA’s report into the activities of the Global Security Reporting Program—the “intelligence” arm of Global Affairs, which has diplomats openly engaging with persons of interest abroad—was finally released, and it’s making some waves. In particular, for a programme that isn’t actual covert intelligence gathering has some governance problems, with a lack of coherent policies or training that has led to some lines being blurred, which can make some countries believe this is an actual foreign intelligence service (it’s not, and we don’t have one).

So, with this in mind, here are four threads from some very reputable sources. Stephanie Carvin walks through the report, and breaks down its components, as well as the government’s responses.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1737569161042096138

Jessica Davis has a shorter walkthrough (with paragraph numbers!) about her own concerns about what she reads in it.

Leah West has a few legal observations about the report.

And Thomas Juneau gives a much more generous read, and places some of the GSRP’s work into better context.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed journalists’ questions about whether Ukraine is losing the war, but acknowledges challenges of being in a country under siege. Ukraine’s forces appear to be moving to a more defensive posture, likely because of the artillery shortage.

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Roundup: The inflation and population figures

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There were a couple of important figures released from StatsCan yesterday, and the first was the November inflation numbers. While some analysts were predicting it to fall, it held at 3.1% for a second month, showing that this is the part where it’s starting to get sticky, and why the Bank can’t let up measures and start reducing interest rates just yet. One of the upsides is that food price inflation continues to come down, which means that prices are stabilising, so that’s very good news (and it has nothing to do with carbon prices). And don’t forget to check out this thread from Trevor Tombe, as he digs into the numbers.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1737111583002923039

The other figures released were the population figures, and it was the fastest growth of any quarter since 1957. The thing to keep an eye on here is that a lot of this seems to be driven by non-permanent residents, whether international students (and the big problem there are a couple of colleges in Ontario turning themselves into abusive degree mills), and other temporary foreign workers, some of whom may have been hired in an abusive way. Some of this are also asylum seekers who have not yet received status (because “closing” Roxham Road didn’t really do much for this situation other than push it underground).

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737106801617703236

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737109349477310976

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737112568286855177

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737136794938884329

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv for the fifth time this month, but this attack was intercepted and no damage was reported. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is boosting its domestic production capacity and will produce one million drones next year. Zelenskyy is also dismissing talk that there is a rift between him and the head of the army. Here’s a look at the work judges are doing to keep the justice system going in a country under fire.

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Roundup: Opening the Canadian Drug Agency

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There was an announcement yesterday that went under the radar of what appears to be every major news organization, which is that the Canadian Drug Agency is now fully operational. This has been in the works for a couple of years now, first as in a transitional form while the government consulted with the provinces and territories on what shape this would take, and it has now emerged from transition status into a full office.

Why is this important? Because this is the kind of actual policy work that is going to contribute to future national pharmacare in this country, not the ridiculous legislation that the NDP are insisting upon, under the mistaken belief that this is something that provinces can join one-by-one like with healthcare. It’s not—if national pharmacare is to work, it needs to be all or nothing, because it won’t be economically feasible otherwise. That means you need the premiers at the table from the start, and they all need to negotiate the national formulary together, not just let Ottawa decide and join up if they feel like it.

So, while Jagmeet Singh and Don Davies put on this dog and pony show about the pharmaracare legislation that hasn’t happened yet, and say boneheaded things like “The Liberals are on the side of Big Pharma,” the government has been putting in the actual work, and not the performative part, for what it’s worth.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A shortage of artillery shells is forcing Ukraine to scale back some operations, while the Russians are changing their tactics in their bid to overtake Avdiivka. Ukraine’s military chief is now saying that the war isn’t at a stalemate as he previously asserted (to which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy contradicted him). Said military chief found bugs in one of his offices, and hints that more devices have been found. He has also been critical of Zelenskyy’s decision to fire all regional military draft officers in a corruption crackdown.

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Roundup: Exploring a national emergency response agency

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Something that caught my eye over the weekend was an interview that Harjit Sajjan had with The Canadian Press over the weekend about building up some kind of national emergency response agency, so that we don’t have to constantly rely on the military for each event as we have been. It would likely be a network of local and regional agencies, but have some kind of federal coordinating role, but we do have some models domestically to draw on, such as the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. The issue there is that it’s only geared toward one kind of event, whereas floods and hurricanes or tornadoes require different responses.

To that end, Sajjan is looking at different models and how different countries manage their agencies, so he’s not immediately jumping on an American FEMA model, but if there is one particular note of caution to sound it’s that we can’t rely on the premiers not ballsing this up or making ridiculous demands because none of them want to spend money on this kind of thing if they think they can get away with forcing the federal government to spend instead, while at the same time not willing to cede any jurisdictional sovereignty so that the federal government can actually do anything other than just give them money that they totally promise will be spent on this and not on tax cuts (really, we promise this time, for reals!)

There’s a reason we’ve come to rely on the military for this kind of work, which is that provinces don’t want to spend the money, and the federal government has so far refused to make provinces reimburse the Forces for doing the work (because they would be massacred in the headlines if they did), and provinces know that. It doesn’t help that the NDP think that this is really the only kind of thing that the military should be doing either. But something has to give, and let’s hope the federal government, of whichever stripe is in power if this gets off the ground, doesn’t simply roll over for the premiers’ usual nonsense on this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians launched a massive drone attack on early Sunday aimed at the southern and western Ukraine, while Ukraine launched a drone attack against a Russian airbase in Russia’s Rostov province. As Russia presses to try and capture Avdiivka, Associated Press has seen drone footage in the area that shows at least 150 bodies in Russian uniforms littering the treeline.

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Roundup: End of the parliamentary year 2023

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With a flurry of more nonsense motions, another apology from Speaker Greg Fergus, and a few more hours of sterile speechifying, followed by a royal assent ceremony, Parliament—both chambers—has gone home for the holidays.

This has been one of the most toxic, rancorous sittings I’ve lived through in my fifteen years on the Hill full-time, and I’ve watched it devolve in realtime to something where the clip-gathering was more selective to it being every single interaction on camera, and because they want to boost the engagement on those clips, they torque things and are now outright lying about absolutely everything, and now the place is a toxic swamp. The incident with Anthony Rota’s ouster just made everything worse, because the partisan rancour around that dialled up to eleven, and there was an actual attempt by the Conservatives to let Rota to escape responsibility by trying to falsely pin the blame on Trudeau and making false insinuations about the PMO essentially running the Speaker’s office, which is both wrong and dangerous. And it just gets progressively worse, the more that Greg Fergus keeps doing things that get pounced upon (no matter that provincial parties are not federal ones, particularly in Quebec).

And because the Andrew Scheer vs Greg Fergus fight keeps getting dumber, the NDP want to summon Scheer to the ethics committee over the use of his office for a partisan video. Meanwhile, people keep digging up more instances of Scheer going to fundraisers when he was Speaker, and lo, they were fundraisers for his own party, not events for provincial parties, which are the accusations being levelled against Fergus. Which do we think is the actual partisan activity here?

Ukraine Dispatch:

There is a strange story out of Keretsky in western Ukraine, where a village council member showed up at a meeting and detonated three grenades, injuring 26 including the person responsible, whose motive is unclear. Ukraine has signed “dozens” of contracts for joint production or technology exchanges with Western defence firms. As the EU struggles to get aid to Ukraine in spite of Hungary blocking it, here’s a look at what Ukraine needs to do in order to continue on its course for membership.

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Roundup: Making excuses for the Ukraine votes

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You will have seen in Question Period yesterday, and over social media last night, the Conservatives are starting to backtrack juts at tiny bit on Ukraine, but it all rings pretty hollow. In QP, the only tangible thing that Pierre Poilievre could point to their supporting Ukraine was that they called for lethal aid to be sent over before the invasion began (whereas the federal government held off until the invasion happened, and then suddenly started sending it). The rest were all non sequiturs that dated to the Harper era.

Later in the evening, Michael Chong listed a bunch of historical things Conservatives have done to support Ukraine, but concluded that they couldn’t support the free trade agreement because of carbon pricing. Yes, the same Michael Chong for whom carbon pricing was the centrepiece of his leadership campaign. It’s horseshit and Chong knows it, but he sold out his morals, ethics, and credibility long ago to curry favour with the party, and here we are.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The Wednesday missile attack on Kyiv has upped its casualty total to 53 injuries, including several children, but fortunately no deaths. Ukraine’s largest mobile carrier says they are restoring voice services after the Russian-linked cyberattack that crippled their operations.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1734886178149503279

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Roundup: Fergus at the NDP’s mercy

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It looks like Speaker Greg Fergus may last another day, as the word from the NDP is that they’re going to demand a fine and another apology to the House of Commons for his lapse in judgment over that video he recorded, though I have to wonder what they think a fine is going to accomplish. That report from the Procedure and House Affairs Committee will be tabled in the Commons by Thursday, so we’ll see if there’s any kind of vote or concurrence debate at that point. And there may yet be, as Andrew Scheer is promising that he’s going to move a vote of non-confidence in the Speaker, possibly in the hopes that he can shake enough NDP MPs loose to oust Fergus. As for the Bloc, Yves-François Blanchet said that perhaps it’s time for a woman in the position, as though Alexandra Mendès hasn’t been there as Assistant Deputy Speaker the whole time, and has twice now run for the position and not gotten enough votes for it.

On the subject of the Speaker, Carleton University’s Philippe Lagassé made some comments to the Hill Times about the fact that we do treat the neutrality of the Speaker in Canada as much more of an illusion than Westminster does. He also suggests we start adopting more Westminster practices like the Speaker running for re-election as an independent, and that past Speakers be appointed to the Lords/Senate where they can continue to serve in less partisan roles, rather than having them rejoin the party ranks (and absolutely not have them run for party leader, Andrew Scheer).

Ukraine Dispatch:

An overnight missile attack on Kyiv has resulted in 45 injuries, while nearly 600 shells and rockets rained down on the southern part of the country amidst a major cyberattack on the country’s largest telecom provider. A US intelligence report estimates that Russia has suffered 315,000 casualties, which is about 90 percent of the forces it began the conflict with. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington DC doesn’t appear to have swayed too many Republicans, while he continued to insist that asking to give Russia land concessions was insane because it meant abandoning families and children to terrorists.

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Roundup: Pre-approved housing plans?

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The federal government is planning to revive an old post-war CMHC programme to create a list of pre-approved housing designs as a way of speeding up the construction of new housing. The aim is to have these available for builders by the end of 2024, with various sizes and options available, in the hopes that it makes zoning and permitting decisions run smoother and faster.

One of the things this shows is that the government is listening to experts, who have been calling for this as a way for the federal government to use what levers they have to demonstrate leadership, and that’s a pretty good start. One would also have to wonder if this couldn’t also spur a movement to pre-manufacture components of these designs in order to make construction go even faster, particularly if there is an element of modularity to these designs. There does also need to be a recognition that these shouldn’t be limited to single-family dwellings, but to multi-family units including four-plexes, now that the rules around those are being relaxed in many municipalities as part of the Housing Accelerator Fund conditions, and rules around use of these designs could be conditions for future funds.

Meanwhile, check out this thread from Mike Moffatt on this particular policy move (which he was an early champion of), and we’ll see what elements the government announces as part of it later today.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1734354682837918043

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia attacked Kyiv with eight ballistic missiles before dawn on Monday, which were all shot down but debris did injury people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be in Washington today to try and convince Republicans to vote for the aid package as time runs out for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1734231565301895538

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Roundup: Some good news on emissions reductions

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As the end of COP28 approaches, and all of the ensuing insanity that surrounds it, there was a bit of good news closer to home, where Environment Canada says that the latest modelling shows that we are on track to meet our interim targets on the way to the 2030 targets. That’s not the enhanced targets, mind you, and there is still a log of work to do, but this is at least a bit of good news that yes, the emissions curve is bending downwards now, and it’s further proof that the Conservatives’ usual defeatist complaint that the government hasn’t reduced emissions (outside of the height of the pandemic) isn’t true, and that yes, the carbon price is working, so their demands to lift it would be even more self-defeating.

Ukraine Dispatch:

It appears that there has been another attempted Russian airstrike over Kyiv, but that air defences are working, but four people were injured by falling debris. There was also a drone attack in the southern Kherson region on Saturday that killed one civilian. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the presidential inauguration in Argentina (where he was sat next to Viktor Orbán and appears to have given him a talking-to).

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1733956509669716365

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Roundup: Another useless vote-a-thon over

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After about thirty hours, the vote-a-thon “filibuster” was complete (it wasn’t a filibuster), and MPs went home. Well, probably not home, as they all missed their flights, so a bunch will either be trying for a weekend flight only to turn around and fly back 24 hours later, or they’ll stay in Ottawa for the weekend, and fume about missing family and constituency events, and it’ll be Conservatives fuming as much, if not more so than anyone else. It bears noting that Justin Trudeau was present for much of the voting in person, and most of his front bench was as well—François-Philippe Champagne arrived directly from his flight from Dubai and immediately headed to the Chamber to vote, with some jokes that he didn’t know what time it was supposed to be after the flight. Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, was absent for nearly all of it. After taking off for a Hannukah event in Montreal (there is a whole sub-plot of Conservative MPs going to Hannukah events where Liberals didn’t because these were confidence votes on a money bill) and then a fundraiser, he arrived late in the night bearing fast food, tried to move a motion to end the vote-a-thon if the Liberals would accede to his demands and “axe the tax,” which they wouldn’t, and then he took off again and was mostly absent the rest of the vote-a-thon. Because he’s a leader like that. (Coverage of the votes from The Canadian Press, CBC, the Star and the National Post, each making different observations).

This vote-a-thon technique has been done before, and it’s failed before, because it never connects to whatever the Conservatives are demanding. They are merely exploiting the fact that for Supply, they can engineer to vote on individual line-items, so they force these vote-a-thons as some sort of “punishment” for the Liberals, but this has all of the same logic as being mad at your partner and withholding sex. The end result is that you really only end up punishing yourself. The Liberals treated this as a big team-building exercise at a time of great caucus unrest and division, and according to all of the reports, morale was high throughout, while Poilievre is going to be hearing about this from his angry backbenchers. Not to mention, the whole logic of thinking that the minor discomfort of a thirty-hour vote-a-thon is going to force the Liberals to abandon a signature policy that they won three elections on and is supported by every other party in the Chamber is ludicrous. That the Conservatives are trying to spin this as a pressure tactic is risible.

And spin is what they are indeed trying to do. Scheer tried to spin this as a “victory” because they made the House lose a sitting day, even though that was a Friday, so not very many hours of debate were really lost. Poilievre has since been insisting that he’s going to prevent the government from going “on holidays,” but he has no power to do that. The Standing Orders have a fixed date to rise, and changing that would require a unanimous consent motion, which he’s never going to get. This was just an impotent exercise in wasting everyone’s time for a temper tantrum based on the lie that carbon pricing is what is driving unaffordability (that has been debunked so many times), but these are the times we live in, where this is all for performance and clips—which the Liberals have been making their own of, where Conservatives voted against line items about the very things they claim to care about, and in particular things like NATO exercises and support for Ukraine—votes that will be going into dossiers in the capitals of our allies, as they know just who Poilievre will be should he ever form government.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians conducted missile strikes against the central part of Ukraine, with 14 missiles shot down outside of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk, while they again pressed the attack at Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Media were invited to see Ukrainian troops training for winter combat at facilities in Poland. Here is a look at the attempt to get better casualty figures for the war, particularly from the Ukrainian side, where they aren’t published for fear of harming the war effort.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1733078163360477582

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