Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: The ideas guy versus the kludge

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The rules around the kludge that is being called dental care are released, and lo, it’s about as bad as was expected, possibly even worse, because the CRA was always the worst way possible to deliver this benefit (particularly after some of the trust-but-verify problems surrounding pandemic benefits that the Auditor General illuminated earlier in the week), and ye they bullied ahead with it because the NDP didn’t care about implementation, so they put an unrealistic timeline in their agreement with the Liberals to prop up the government, and an expectation that this should be a federally-administered programme rather than an agreement with provinces like every other federal programme (most recently with early learning and child care).

And no, this is not something that could simply be added into existing healthcare systems because that would require provincial buy-in, and every premier who was asked about this balked, some of them because they have existing programmes for low-income households, and all of them because they really, really do not want another federal programme to manage and contribute to, or be on the hook for when a new government comes to power and starts to axe it.

But remember, the NDP are the “ideas guy,” who never worries about implementation, and who takes credit for the work the other guys did, because he came up with the idea, don’t you know? This is all going to go so badly because it was rushed and had really stupid conditions imposed on it, but they can crow that they got dental care.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 290:

It looks like Russian forces may have kidnapped two senior employees of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as part of ongoing pressure tactics to get them to sign the plant over to Russian authorities, which they have refused to do. Meanwhile, Belarus told the UN it would allow passage of Ukrainian grain through its territory to Lithuanian ports without conditions, but given that Belarus is a Russian puppet stage, we’ll see how much they actually uphold the deal.

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Roundup: Not a national government?

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The “Sovereignty Act” passed in Alberta on Wednesday night, albeit in a slightly amended form where the Henry VIII clause was largely taken out, but it’s still hot garbage and still blatantly unconstitutional on a number of fronts, so have no worries there. Rachel Notley has, not incorrectly, pointed out that that the rejection of federal authority clearly lays the groundwork for separatism, and the brain trust (if you can call it that) which were behind the bill are actively trying to court a constitutional crisis, demanding constitutional changes or they’ll start holding separation referendums (because that won’t devastate the province’s economy like it did Quebec’s in 1980. Cripes).

And then Danielle Smith said something really stupid, like she is wont to do, insisting that we don’t have a national government (erm, we do), and that provinces are sovereign (they’re not), and made up a bunch of ahistorical nonsense about signatories to the constitution and powers of the provinces, and it’s all wrong, but it’s not like Smith cares.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1600839666877562880

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1600840633350082560

As for Justin Trudeau, he is steadfastly refusing to take the bait, and it looks like there will be some court challenges to the legislation in Alberta before the federal government is forced to make any kind of move to refer it to the Supreme Court of Canada. Some of those challenges may come from the province’s First Nations, who can clearly see that this is going to infringe on their inherent and treaty rights because it’s a resource grab by the province (and likewise in Saskatchewan with their “Saskatchewan First Act”) which is an absolute violation of Indigenous rights.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 289:

Russian forces shelled the entire front of the Donetsk region, in what Ukrainians say is a bid to secure the bulk of territory they have already claimed, with the fiercest fighting once again near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian officials are also saying that Russia has installed multiple rocket launchers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, apparently trying to use it as a base to fire on Ukrainian territory, which not only violates all rules around nuclear safety, but is trying to use the plant as a shield from retaliation.

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Roundup: The Auditor General is not infallible

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I have to say that I am both amused and irritated by the number of stories out over the past couple of days about the Conservatives supposedly “defending” the Auditor General, or that there is a “battle brewing” between the AG and the Canada Revenue Agency because they didn’t agree with her calculations around some of the benefits or whom she believed were receiving them on a fraudulent basis. For one, the Conservatives didn’t come to her defence—it was a bit of cheap theatre for them to suddenly start screaming that the government somehow attacked her independence and therefore “democracy itself” (no, seriously, they said that) because the revenue minister said that the CRA didn’t agree with her calculations, and then cheekily added that it wasn’t her fault because the opposition was forcing her to do the audit (which is partially true—it was the compromise that they insisted on to pass the emergency COVID legislation back at the start of the pandemic, so the mandate was legislated, but because they demanded it).

My bigger problem is the fact that this disagreement is somehow scandalising because we have an unhealthy veneration of Officers of Parliament and the Auditor General most especially in this country. A virtual cult has been built around them, particularly by media, who love nothing more than watching the AG go to town on criticising the government of the day, no matter which stripe of government it is, and they will uncritically believe absolutely everything the AG says because they are independent, and therefore must be inherently credible. There are similar problems with this lack of critical engagement with the Parliamentary Budget Officer (and the current one has been a real problem around that, as he picks methodologies out of thin air), and again, his word is gospel. But they’re not infallible. The previous AG ballsed up the Senate audit really badly, and it was an absolute mess, but nobody wanted to talk about it because you can’t badmouth the Auditor General. It’s like a cardinal sin in this city. And departments should be allowed to have disagreements, because the AG isn’t going to get it right every time. That’s just a physical impossibility, and we should acknowledge that fact, but as we see, when it happens, it’s like heresy. People need to grow up, and media needs to be more critical of these Officers, because media is the only check they have.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 288:

Kyiv’s mayor is warning people that while there is no need to evacuate at present, it could become necessary if Russian strikes continue on critical infrastructure over the winter. There are some concerns around movements inside of Belarus, but it is also suspected this may be a decoy and an information operation to keep Ukrainian troops near that border rather than at the front lines. Elsewhere, here is the harrowing tale of a Ukrainian father who was separated from his children by Russians while trying to flee Mariupol, and his ordeal in getting them back from Russian hands.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1600404008463523841

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Roundup: A couple of not-that-scathing reports

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The Auditor General released two reports yesterday on pandemic befits programmes and vaccine procurement, and they were…not explosive. Really. There were weak spots from the government, in large part because of the haste in which these programmes were designed because of the pandemic, and some inefficiency, but on the report about vaccines, part of the problem with wastage is because of a lack of provincial data, because the federal government hasn’t been able to sign agreements with the provinces. And as we’ve seen all too often, this is the fault of the provinces.

Nevertheless, the Conservatives were salivating over this release and put on a whole dog and pony show to decry that this was a sign that this government’s “wasteful spending” is what is fuelling inflation, which isn’t true, but this is the narrative they have been trying to push, and these numbers were ripe for the plucking. And as they do with every other officer of Parliament, they misconstrued the report, cherry-picked figures, and cranked up the hyperbole, and lo, this was scandalous. But that’s not what the report found. And it also ignores that they voted unanimously to design the benefit programmes this way because it was more important to get the money out the door.

Anyway, here’s Jennifer Robson’s read of the report, and it’s worth your time.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 287:

Another drone strike within Russia set a third airfield ablaze, though the Ukrainians have not claimed responsibility for the attack. (Video here) More Russian missiles did strike civilian targets in Ukraine, but they were said to be less severe than other attacks in recent weeks. The strikes against Russian airfields have Russian bloggers questioning the competence of their government’s defences.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1600135762179018752

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Roundup: Incoherent amendments to an incoherent bill

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Alberta premier Danielle Smith has announced the plans to amend her “Sovereignty Act” to take out the egregious aspect of giving Cabinet unlimited powers to amend existing legislation without through decree, and framed in a way that this was about “listening to caucus” rather than admitting that this was one giant omnishambles from the get-go. The problem is that her planned amendments…don’t actually make any sense. It sounds like they plan to send any proposed amendments from Cabinet back to the legislature to vote on, but that doesn’t make sense if you would just remove that whole section and let the legislative amendment process carry on as usual? And does it really remove the Henry VIII clause, or just add an extra step to it that would wind up being pro forma given their majority? None of it makes any sense, but considering just how incompetent she and her government are, nothing can really be surprising.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 286:

Russians fired another barrage of missiles into Ukraine, many of them hitting the suburbs of the city of Zaporizhzhia, plus other energy facilities including near Kyiv. Two Russian airbases were hit, allegedly by Ukrainian drones, but Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for a strike inside Russian borders. Meanwhile, here’s the tale of how Ukrainian healthcare workers saved children from being deported into Russia. Elsewhere, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court denounced a plan by the EU to create a UN-backed special tribunal for war crimes in Ukraine, saying that the ICC is perfectly capable of doing the job.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau was in Ingersoll, Ontario, as the first EV rolled out of the GM factory there. There, he offered assurances about hunting rifles in the gun control bill.
  • Trudeau also said he is “extremely concerned” by reports of Canadian-made parts found in Iranian drones used by Russians in bombarding Ukraine.
  • Trudeau said that he is “watching closely” as the Americans respond to European complaints about North American protectionism in their Inflation Reduction Act.
  • In a year-ender, Trudeau says that Canadians need to be reassured about the allegations of Chinese interference in elections.
  • The COP15 biodiversity conference begins in Montreal today, which Canada is co-hosting with China (and I’m sure there’s no awkwardness there).
  • Mélanie Joly announced new sanctions on Haitian elites accused of empowering the criminal gangs in the country.
  • Sean Fraser says the federal government will fund projects to remove barriers for foreign-trained health care workers from practicing in Canada.
  • Employment data is showing that the national child care programme is having the desired effect, as more working-age women are entering the labour market.
  • The Royal Canadian Mint plans to release a special $2 circulation coin to honour the late Queen Elizabeth II.
  • Permanent residents can now apply to join the Canadian Forces.
  • Major-General Dany Fortin was acquitted of a sexual assault charge dating from 1988, and says he wants to get his career back.
  • As you may have heard, researchers at Dalhousie University predict that food prices will continue to climb by another seven percent next year.
  • A Spanish civil rights group reports that there are at least three Chinese “secret police stations” in Toronto, one in Vancouver, plus one more unknown location.
  • The Assembly of First Nations is likely to vote this week on the child welfare settlement agreement that their negotiator helped to craft.
  • Grocery oligopoly executives were at the Commons agriculture committee to push back against the claims they are driving food price inflation. (They’re not really).

Odds and ends:

My Loonie Politics Quick Take sorts some fact from fiction on the notion that Justin Trudeau has turned his back on Europe looking for LNG.

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Roundup: Blame the premiers for the paediatric health crisis

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The crisis in our hospitals, particularly paediatric ones, continues to get worse. In Ottawa, CHEO now has Canadian Red Cross staff assisting. In Newfoundland and Labrador, their children’s hospital had to cancel surgeries. In Alberta, they are sending children in palliative care home because they need to redeploy those staff elsewhere. So what are people doing? Telling people to bother the federal government.

No.

This is squarely on the premiers. They have been consistently underfunding their healthcare systems, even with higher transfers the federal government has been sending the past couple of years, both because of the pandemic and with additional funds intended to help reduce wait times, but has that money gone to good effect? Nope. But you have several provinces who sent out vote-buying cheques to people, nearly all of them are running surpluses, and New Brunswick and Quebec are promising tax cuts, particularly for high-earners. They have been playing chicken with the federal government, driving the crisis so that they can be sent more money with no strings attached (this is one of Danielle Smith’s many complaints), and it really looks like they want the system to collapse so they can blame the federal government and bully them into acceding to their demands. But so long as everyone keeps fixating on what the federal government is going to do to fix the problem rather than playing blame on the premiers, where it belongs, this state of affairs is going to continue. It’s only when the premiers start feeling the pressure that they’ll make changes, and right now, they are being let off the hook by too many people. Don’t let them. Put the pressure where it needs to be, and that is the premiers.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 285:

Ukrainian forces held a three-day amnesty for those looking to cross the Dnipro river in the Kherson region from the Russian-held side, in order to reunite families and get civilians to safety, but it sounds like Russian forces killed at least one person crossing the river. Meanwhile, the US’ intelligence chief says that the slower tempo of action in the conflict could wind up favouring Ukraine as Russian forces continue to be outmatched. Here’s a look at the fiscal situation Ukraine finds itself in, trying to finance the war without printing more money and driving up inflation. And here is a slideshow of the conflict.

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Roundup: No, LNG sales aren’t being blocked

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It seems that Pierre Poilievre, and by extension other members of his caucus like Michael Chong, are trying to sell another false narrative to the Canadian people, and this time, they are claiming that the prime minister is “blocking” LNG sales to Germany. This is patently false, but that’s not surprising considering that this is coming from Poilievre, and he is without any sense of shame when it comes to outright lying at all times. His “proof” is a National Post article with a framing device claiming that Canada “snubbed” Germany on LNG, so they are signing a deal with Qatar.

The federal government has not blocked any LNG projects. We did not “snub” Germany either because they know full well we don’t have the export infrastructure, and by the time we could build it, it would be too late for Europe, hence why they came looking for hydrogen and got it. It wasn’t the government blocking any LNG terminals from being built—it was the market. There is very little supply along the East Coast to try and tap into for supply for export (indeed, there is one import terminal in New Brunswick), so unless you’re piping it all the way from Alberta or the United States, at an increased cost, there has been little sense in constructing it (and no, fracking is not going to happen in New Brunswick). There are terminals being constructed on the West Coast, where there is supply, but they are still being built, because it took a long time for them to secure the export contracts to make construction viable. If Trudeau was really “blocking the sale” then why would these projects still be allowed to proceed? It makes no sense.

There is also the consideration that Canadian LNG is more expensive than that coming from Qatar, which is a large part of why it has been unattractive to the European market (especially when it was coming pretty cheaply from Russia). It’s why most of the proposals aren’t getting off the ground–these projects won’t make their money back for thirty or forty years, by which time we will be deep in decarbonizing and reaching Net Zero targets. Even if we could somehow build an export terminal and a pipeline to supply it, the market for the product is likely to rapidly decrease, which means we’d be stranding those assets and have billions of dollars in these terminals going nowhere. The market doesn’t want to invest for a reason, and it’s not the Canadian government.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 283:

In a rare admission, a top aide to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that between 10,000 to 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia’s invasion began in February. (The Russian losses have been much higher). The International Atomic Energy Agency says a deal aimed at safeguarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is almost completed. Here is a look at how school children in Kyiv are faring between Russian bombardments and blackouts. Meanwhile, here’s a look at a Canadian-funded work doing de-mining work in Ukraine.

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Roundup: Sanctimonious outrage over unsavoury characters

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There was another bout of sanctimonious outrage in the House of Commons yesterday as a notorious Holocaust-denier attended an event put on by MPs of the Canada-Palestine Parliamentary Friendship Group, and the Conservatives (and Melissa Lantsman in particular) demanded apologies and denunciations. While at least two Liberals, Salma Zahid and Omar Alghabra, denounced, there hasn’t been much of an apology, but noted that said denier was not invited, but that an open invitation went out to the Palestinian community and he was one of 150 or so who showed up. One would think that with a topic as sensitive as solidarity with the Palestinian people that there would have been more of an emphasis on ensuring that someone like this didn’t show up, but they didn’t. In QP, Alghabra was not incorrect in noting that they can’t control the attendance at every public event and that sometimes unsavoury people will show up, which is true—but again, you should know with an event like this that it’s going to attract certain characters, and to beware.

What is rich, however, is that when far-right extremists showed up at Pierre Poilievre’s rallies, or when he cavorted with the occupiers on Parliament Hill in February, or when he went on that walk with members of Diagalon, that he and his caucus insisted that he couldn’t be held to account for those people showing up. And lo, they have a different standard when it happens to others. It’s something of a pox on all their houses situation—the MPs who hosted the Palestinian event should have been more careful, and headed off trouble when they saw who showed up, while the Conservatives need to own when they were attracting extremists, and consorting with them. But I have little doubt that either side will own this, and the sanctimonious outrage will continue, back and forth from each side, in perpetuity.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 282:

Russian shelling has taken out power in over a third of recently liberated Kherson, and Ukrainian officials are reiterating their call for civilians to relocate for the time being. Meanwhile, here’s a look at the grinding battle near Bakhmut, whose strategic importance is questioned, but nevertheless, the well-fortified Ukrainians are exacting a heavy toll from Russian forces, even though it is costing between 30 to 50 Ukrainian casualties per day.

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Roundup: A bill drawn up by deranged constitutional saboteurs

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The fallout of the rollout of Danielle Smith’s “Alberta Sovereignty in a United Canada Act” carried on for much of the day, starting with a “clarification” that the province’s justice department sent out, but it didn’t clarify anything because it contradicted the plain language of the text, and I am forced to wonder why we aren’t seeing a raft of resignations because this whole affair has been an egregious, unconstitutional omnishambles from the get go. (From bean to cup…)

For his part, Justin Trudeau is keeping his powder dry and standing well back. While he said nothing is “off the table,” but added that he’s not looking to pick a fight, he knows full well that a fight is what Smith wants, because that’s what she hopes to use to leverage support in the next election, because there is a demographic in Alberta who likes the attitude of pugilism with the federal government, even though most of the grievances are imaginary or overblown. And no, he is not going to invoke disallowance on this because it’s a constitutional dead letter and would be provoking an even bigger constitutional crisis. But I also get the sense that “disallowance” is the new “Emergencies Act” that the press gallery in Ottawa is going to ask Trudeau about at every single opportunity, like they did through the height of the pandemic. But seriously, Gretchen—stop trying to make disallowance happen. It’s not going to happen. As for what Trudeau will do, I suspect it’ll be a reference to the Supreme Court of Canada after the bill receives royal assent, whenever that happens.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1597961310779891713

For commentary on the bill, law professor Eric Adams lists the bill’s many unconstitutional aspects which will result in court cases, one way or the other. Emmett Macfarlane pulls no punches in calling it the most unconstitutional bill in modern history, goes through the many problems, and asserts that the bill was “drawn up by deranged constitutional saboteurs,” and he’s right. David Moscrop points out that the bill gives Smith a temporary win by harnessing populist forces to her benefit, where she can play victim when the courts eventually strike this down. Colby Cosh doesn’t take Smith at her word that she hopes never to use this legislation, and hopes that people can cool down before this escalates.

https://twitter.com/tim4hire/status/1598044824380506117

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 281:

Fighting continues both in the east, as Russians continue to try and advance to Bakhmut, and near Kherson in the south. Meanwhile, nine people were killed by fire over a 24-hour period as they tried to find ways of providing heat, and it didn’t go very well for an of them.

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Roundup: The Sovereignty Act is an attack on democracy itself

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Alberta premier Danielle Smith tabled her “Alberta Sovereignty in a United Canada Act” yesterday, and it was worse than anyone had previously imagined.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1597736239960297473

For starters, the “in a united Canada” part is an attempt to be clever in trying to insist that this isn’t about separatism, but that’s mere window dressing. (I also suspect that it’s not much of a coincidence that just days ago, conservative luminary Ken Boessenkool declared Stephen Harper’s “The Québécois are a nation within a united Canada” motion to be a genius unifying move, never mind the fact that just who “the Québécois” were was never defined and created rifts with Anglo-Quebeckers). The substance of this bill is a wholesale power grab using the most extreme form of a Henry VIII clause known as enabling legislation. In this case, it allows Cabinet to amend any legislation they see fit to after being given a mandate by way of a resolution passed by the legislature (where they have a comfortable majority). Smith and her justice minister, Tyler Shandro, kept insisting that this resolution process was democratic and transparent, but this kind of enabling legislation is anything but, particularly because it allows Cabinet to define the terms of what they deem “injurious to Alberta’s interests,” or whatever the excuse they’re giving themselves to take these powers. It violates the separation of powers by declaring federal legislation to be null and void in the province, and directs police not to enforce federal laws, which is an attack on the rule of law.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1597732003411267584

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1597761564257701888

Smith justified the need for such powers as saying that Alberta has been “ignored” by the federal government for the past ten years, which is a) complete bullshit, and b) that’s not a justifiable reason to give yourself the power to ignore the legislative process. She insisted this was just defending rights like Quebec does, but Quebec doesn’t do this. Her list of grievances was largely all strawmen—the incoming emission cap on the oil and gas sector, the plan to reduce fertilizer emissions, environmental assessment legislation, and the worst affront of all—that the federal government would dare to try to attach strings to federal dollars. How very dare they! But this kind of mendacious grievance-mongering is how politics has been practice in the province for years now, so it’s not unexpected that this is what she would fall back to.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1597733033754386434

Smith’s apologists immediately came out to defend the bill saying that it’s “symbolic” and Smith herself was insisting she doesn’t want it to be used. That’s all horseshit. You don’t give yourself very real enabling legislation powers for “symbolic” reasons if you don’t intend to use it. The federal government has largely been signalling that they won’t be engaging, though I wouldn’t be surprised if, now that we’ve seen the text and the huge overreach, that they would refer this to the Supreme Court of Canada so fast that it will give you whiplash. While this could be Smith imagining that it’s a fight she wants, I have severe doubts that it would give her the legitimacy in a fight that she so desperately wants.

As this was all going down, Jason Kenney announced that he had resigned his seat, with a letter attached that bemoaned how polarized politics had become—after he spent 25 years actively engaging in that very polarizing behaviour and driving it to partisan effect. The kicker here is that Kenney was vehemently opposed to the proposed Sovereignty Act, and planned to oppose it in the legislature, but as soon as the bill is tabled, whoops, there he goes. I can’t quite decide if this is weaselly behaviour, or Kenney being a chicken shit. Either way, it was a choice.

https://twitter.com/jkenney/status/1597741099971641344

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 280:

NATO foreign ministers met in Bucharest, Romania, and have pledged additional non-lethal support with things like more blankets and generators to help Ukrainians to get through the winter, but also to send them Patriot missiles. The Americans announced $53 million to buy parts to help repair the electrical grid. Inside Ukraine, “Points of Invincibility” have bene set up which are stations to get food, drinks, and warmth as the shelling of critical infrastructure continues.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1597661671560024067

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