Tag Archives: Arctic

Roundup: Wheedling for official party status

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The official party status debate seems to be moving ahead without any consideration of logic, or why the rule exists, or the importance of rules actually being followed. And so, Don Davies says he’s reaching out to Carney to try and get official party status, but insists that he’s not going to try and threaten quid pro quo about it. I’m going to point back to my column from earlier in the week that there is no reason they should qualify for it—or to trust the “no quid pro quo” line either, but I’m really, really not swayed by all the capital-p Pundits who think that the Liberals should give them that status just because, or because they feel bad (or perhaps grateful?) that all those NDP voters switched to Liberals to stop Poilievre and Trump (even though that’s not what the data shows in most ridings), and it lets the NDP off the hook for running a poor campaign with a leader who was past his best-before date, and for their inability to present a vision for voters to believe in. If they want to have their official party status, they need to earn it back in the next election. (A few more details on the state of the party here).

One of the other things the big-P Pundits keep bringing up is the issue of the number of staff that would be lost, and the fact that there wouldn’t be salaries for a party whip or House Leader, but again, they’re seven MPs. You don’t need a staff to wrangle those MPs, to get them onto committees and ensure that if they’re absent that they’re covered off, and so on. It’s not a consideration. Does it suck? Yes. But let’s be realistic about just what those seven MPs are going to be contributing and how much staff they need to do it. They are not actually owed anything here, and perhaps we need to be a little hard-nosed about it. You can bet that if the situation was reversed, the NDP would be ruthless about it (and they were in 2011 when they formed the official opposition and broke established courtesies and rules around seniority for offices in Centre Block and so on in their fit of triumphalism). And the Bloc remember that the NDP refused to extend official party status to them after 2015 when they had ten seats.

There were also news stories about the supposed “feelers” that Liberals have allegedly put out for any NDP floor-crossers, but in the conversations I’ve had with staffers, it has been a lot of “Erm, we don’t want them. Especially that crew.” So, while maybe someone made a few phone calls, or “feelers,” I would seriously doubt that there is an honest effort being made here, but this is merely what I’ve heard, so take that with a grain of salt.

My life reporting on #cdnpoli, basically.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-09T13:31:29.079Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians hit 8 settlements in Zaporizhzhia region 220 times during their so-called “ceasefire.” Some 40 world leaders, including Canada, are supporting the creation of a special international tribunal to prosecute Russia for their war of aggression. President Zelenskyy is hosting leaders from the “coalition of the will” today.

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Roundup: The final Saturday blitz

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Day thirty-five, and the final Saturday was marked by a number of stops from all of the leaders to hit as many locations as they can before people vote. Mark Carney was King City, Ontario, and spoke about reshaping the international trading system thanks to Trump’s crisis, and how he planned to do just that. From there, the campaign stopped in Newmarket, Aurora, Markham, Mississauga, and then Windsor. Carney will have another full day of stops, hitting Hamilton, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria in a single day. Oof.

Pierre Poilievre was in Delta, BC, calling for record voter turnout as he sees that as his path to beating the Liberals, and then headed to Sudbury for a rally. Poilievre will be in Oakville, and then end the day in his home riding for a rally.

Jagmeet Singh was in London, Ontario, for a campaign stop but no formal announcement, followed by stops in Windsor before flying to Vancouver and Burnaby. Singh hits Penticton, BC, followed by Oliver, New Westminster, Vancouver, and Coquitlam today.

In other campaign news, here is a comparison between the Liberal and Conservative proposals around national defence. Here is a look at people in blue collar unions willing to give the Conservatives a chance. The Star has their eyes on ten ridings that they say offer key narratives about the election. And a woman who wore a trans rights shirt to the Conservative rally in Saskatoon was removed by police, and has questions as to why.

This is so Canadian. Body Break doing a special elbows up get out to vote segment.

— Michelle Keep (@jmkeep.bsky.social) 2025-04-26T12:43:12.878Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 149 drones at Ukraine overnight, killing a man in Pavlohrad and injuring others. Russia claims that they have driven all Ukrainian forces from Kursk region, but Ukraine says they are still fighting. (More about the significance here). President Zelenskyy had a meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the Pope’s funeral in Rome, and Trump seemed to indicate that he’s afraid Putin has been playing him and has no intention of seeking peace. (You think?)

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Roundup: Promising to capitulate to the oil companies

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Day ten, and things felt a bit more on track today now that the Paul Chiang situation didn’t loom over everything. Mark Carney was in Winnipeg, and re-announced his party’s affordability measures, such as the cancellation of the consumer carbon levy (though I’m not sure how losing the rebates after this quarter will help most households with affordability), his tax cut plan (which disproportionately helps the wealthy), and their various home building pledges along with the previously announced expansion of dental care this summer. That said, he also said expanding pharmacare likely wasn’t going to be a priority (but remember that pharmacare done in the dumbest way possible because the NDP insisted, so maybe it’ll give it time to negotiate a better system? But only if the premiers actually want to play ball, mind you, and they were reluctant beforehand. Carney is back in Ottawa today for “meetings” in advance of the tariff announcement this afternoon.

Pierre Poilievre was in Petty Harbour, Newfoundland and Labrador, and announced that he was going to cave to five demands from the oil industry, including repealing the Impact Assessment Act, scrap the emissions cap, the industrial carbon price, guarantee “six-month approvals” for projects (and good luck with that), and increase Indigenous loan guarantees for resource projects. Of course, the justifications he keeps pointing to are things that predated Trudeau and the IAA, and there are a tonne of approved projects on the books that aren’t moving ahead for market-based reasons. He’s selling a fiction about the need for more oil and gas projects which the market has not moved on, and is convinced this is the way to fight Trump. It’s baffling. Poilievre also insisted that the Liberals were going to bring the consumer carbon levy back once the election is over, just like Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole also insisted that the Liberals were going to tax the capital gains on your home. He later made an announcement in PEI about removing the automatic escalator on beer, wine and spirits, which…is a fraction of a cent every year. Honest to Dionysus… Poilievre will be in Toronto this morning, and heads to Kingston for the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton, and promised changes to the Canada Health Act to ensure that American corporations can’t buy Canadian healthcare facilities, and to put stronger controls on provinces who allow cash-for-access services. He later headed to Winnipeg and met with Wab Kinew. Singh remains in Winnipeg today.

In other campaign news, the Greens have qualified to be in the leaders’ debates, but Maxime Bernier and his vanity party have not (as it should be). Here is a comparison of the various carbon pricing (or not) policies as we now appear to be in a race to the bottom based on false premises. Here is an analysis of the various housing promises. And stories of frustration continue to leak out from the Conservative ranks.

Look! Writs—plural!—being signed, and not on the day the election is called!

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-01T14:11:42.752Z

Apropos of everything.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T00:39:33.806Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians claim to have captured a new village in eastern Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy is meeting with a small number of countries about contributing troops as part of the security guarantee in the event the conflict does end.

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Roundup: No reporters on the plane

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The Conservatives have declared that there will be no media contingent on their campaign plane or busses, while still mouthing words like claiming they’ll be the “most transparent” campaign out there. (Full letter here). They won’t be, of course, because not allowing journalists on the plane/bus means that they can’t see unscripted moments (from their limited vantage point), but stage-management is much of what this is really about—giving that added bit of message control that the Conservatives are very desperate to maintain.

The claim they are advancing is that they’ll give two- or three-days’ advance notice of stops so that local media can be there, or that national media can fly (last minute, driving up costs), and that people can use “technology” to connect to the campaign, but that generally means relying on the party’s infrastructure and feeds, which allows for greater chances of manipulation (especially if they delay their feed). And before you say it, yes, media do pay for seats on that plane/busses. Thousands of dollars. For comparison’s sake, the Liberals’ proposed fees for the campaign were $1,500 per day; $6,600 per week; or $33,500 for the full campaign. Those fees cover travel, food, access to filing rooms, and Wi-Fi (but not hotels). So let me reiterate—this isn’t about costs, it’s about control. And because the Conservatives claim that they will balance local and national coverage at events, we’ve seen what this means in recent press conferences, where they refused questions from English-language national media, and only took questions from local ethnocultural outlets, and so-called “independent” faux-news outlets like Rebel “News” or Juno.

Ukraine Dispatch

Putin claimed he was willing to engage in a thirty-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure only (which doesn’t mean much given that this is the time of year Russia would be letting up on attacking those targets—they prefer to do so in the winter to freeze out the Ukrainians), and lo, continued to bomb other civilian targets. Some “ceasefire.” Ukraine then stopped an attempted Russian incursion into the Sumy region, because of course.

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Roundup: Positive feelings about a useless meeting

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We seem to be caught in a pattern where Donald Trump will invite a world leader to the White House—yesterday it was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte—and he goes on an unhinged rant while they’re sitting there, trying to avoid saying anything that will set him off. And yesterday’s rant included a full-on threat to annex Greenland (while Rutte tried to downplay NATO’s involvement in any way, which is true to the extent that it only operates by consensus), and went on an extended rant about Canada not working as a real country, and made up the lie that America pays for our military (not true in the slightest), before repeating the falsehood that the US subsidizes us.

Half-point to #CBCNN for not both-sidesing that caption.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-03-13T18:09:44.596Z

Meanwhile, Dominic LeBlanc and François-Philippe Champagne had their meeting with Howard Lutnick, with Doug Ford along for the ride as he continued to try and make himself the main character (and I watched Conservative talking head pundits also putting forward this distorted view of reality). Ford came out of the meeting, effusive about how “positive” it was and how they were going to have more meetings next week (and was later corrected that officials were going to meet, not him), while the two ministers basically talked a lot and said nothing, because nothing could be accomplished here. But they had to pretend that something came from this meeting when obviously nothing did, as there were no changes to any tariffs, and Ford’s pressure tactic around the electricity “surcharge” remains off the table again.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lkc6vantcc2f

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lkc76do6g22f

Elsewhere, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Canada had his Senate confirmation hearing, and when asked, he said that Canada is a sovereign country, and tried to claim that Trump’s expansionist rhetoric is about “negotiation tactics,” but it certainly doesn’t seem to be. And yeah, he said the bare minimum to ensure that he wasn’t PNGed before he could even arrive in the country. Closer to home, Scott Moe continues to call for capitulation to China regarding their tariff fight, because of course he did, and claimed it was about protecting Quebec’s industries over Saskatchewan’s, except Quebec doesn’t really have much of an auto sector, but Moe’s brain is pretty smooth, after all.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight attack on Dnipro injured three women and damaged apartment buildings. Ukrainian forces are in retreat in parts of Kursk region, which means losing a bargaining chip in possible peace negotiations. And Putin has all kinds of conditions on a possible ceasefire, because he’s not serious, and Ukraine only went along with the plan to call his bluff.

Surprise! The Russians, who have repeatedly said they don't want a ceasefire, have once again said they don't want a ceasefire

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum.bsky.social) 2025-03-13T11:42:16.938Z

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Roundup: Offering a limited reprieve

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Because the trade war is many ways a weird power dynamic, yesterday was all about offers of reprieves. After a lengthy phone call between Justin Trudeau and Trump, there came word of a “reprieve” on tariffs for the auto sector—for a month—but at the behest of the Big Three auto companies rather than any of Trudeau’s efforts, and while there hasn’t been official word, Senior Government Sources™ are saying that Trudeau is not budging on the retaliatory measures. And why would he? The one-month reprieve came with the message from both JD Vance and Trump’s press secretary that they want those manufacturers to locate all of their factories in the US to avoid tariffs, but the “official” reason for the tariffs remains fentanyl, because Trump needs the legal fiction of a “national emergency” to use executive powers to levy tariffs rather than Congress (but he controls that, so the logic only extends so far). Oh, and now Trump is talking about agricultural carveouts, because they’re stupid and don’t realise the consequences of their actions until it’s too late.

Trump Weighs Agriculture Carveouts From Canada, Mexico Tariffswww.bloomberg.com/news/article…

— Brian Platt (@brianplatt.bsky.social) 2025-03-05T22:58:52.676Z

In provincial reactions, both Danielle Smith and Scott Moe said they were pulling American liquor from their provincial liquor control boards, a day after everyone else. Smith had to put on a big show that included one of her Alberta Sheriffs holding a big rifle to show that she was super serious about them patrolling the border (not that they can legally do much more than taxi that person to an authorised federal border agent or RCMP officer). Both Smith and Moe also insisted that they didn’t want export taxes on either oil or potash, which again, is a boneheaded move of signalling to Trump that they don’t want to play their strongest cards ever (because they’re both super geniuses). Of course, it’s not their call because those powers are federal, but it’s still a sign of how unserious either of them is in the face of an existential threat. Meanwhile, Yukon premier Raj Pillai is “considering” limiting ties with Elon Musk’s businesses, like Starlink (which seems like something they should be doing more than just considering).

There was also word that there was more progress on interprovincial trade barriers and incremental progress toward credentials recognition—with some exceptions for Quebec because of linguistic requirements (but I still have questions about how they plan to get self-regulating bodies like the colleges of physicians and surgeons to play ball).

Progress reported on internal trade barriers, but I am still unclear on credential recognition when professional bodies are self-regulated (like doctors). #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-03-06T01:13:30.326Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, killing three and injuring at least twenty-nine others. The Americans are cutting off the flow of intelligence to Ukraine, because they’re now on Putin’s side. A Ukrainian commander says that NATO forces are not ready for modern drone warfare. Here is an examination of the state of the war, and that it would take Russia 118 years to fully conquer Ukraine at their present rate of advancement.

If the US had continued to support Ukraine, we may have been months away from the end of the war. The Russians would not have been able to continue to fight for much longer. They were making almost no progress, taking huge casualties.

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum.bsky.social) 2025-03-05T15:19:16.697Z

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Roundup: A mixed bag from the English debate

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The Liberals’ English-language debate was held last night, and it was a much more lively affair, given that they weren’t speaking in very slow and deliberate French to get their points across. The first few minutes were a complete English-dub replay of Monday’s debate, with the exact same opening statements and first responses to the same question, so it took them a while to actually get to something new, but the longer it went on, the more annoyed I started to get at some of the absolute inanities that were on display. (Here are liveblogs from the Star and The Canadian Press, while I was live-tweeting Bluesky here).

One of the early topics was Canada’s place in the world, and after the initial chest-thumping about Trump, they got into things like NATO targets. Chrystia Freeland was probably the most clear-eyed here, talking about building a new democratic world order with allies that included the UK and France because they have nuclear capabilities (which was a sign of how serious this is), because America is no longer the “leader of the free world.” But when discussing spending to hit NATO targets, everyone was quick to say that they didn’t want those dollars going to American companies, but nobody seemed to have much of an idea of just what the Canadian defence industry was capable of producing for our needs, or the fact that we need to look to other allies because our defence industry is not large and can’t produce a lot of things we need quickly (lest we start buying into vapourware that companies like Bombardier will promise but have no guaranteed ability to deliver on). Oh, and Karina Gould deserves a time-out for pitching a “procurement czar.” No! Stop with this American bullshit!

Freeland has a very clear-eyed statement about building a new democratic world order now that the US is no longer the "leader of the free world." Baylis wants to get allies to bankruptcy Boeing as an example. (Good luck with what that's going to do to our military procurement).

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T01:29:48.917Z

Boy, there is a lot of wishful thinking about the state of the Canadian defence industry, and what capabilities that Canadian industry can produce. (We may have to look to other allies' industries, guys. Be frank and forthright about it.)

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T01:34:57.570Z

And now we're into another round of AI platitudes. And Baylis wants to recreate a research and development programme that already exists and has had challenges turning R&D into procurement. Like, it already exists. That's not the problem.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T01:40:12.215Z

The cost-of-living segment was…unenlightening, and had some of the worst pitches. Chrystia Freeland wants to cut red tape (how? You’ve had nine years!), and Karina Gould wants to modernise social services (provincial jurisdiction) and bring in a basic income (not going to work—there is research to prove it). There was a question on how to improve productivity that nobody could give an actual answer to except to wave their hands and say “AI,” as though it’s a magic incantation.

Moving onto the cost of living theme.You'll never guess, but Carney wants to "build our economy."

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T01:45:12.030Z

Baylis repeats his utter nonsense about fiscal discipline raising the value of the dollar (WHICH DOESN'T MAKE ANY GODS DAMNED SENSE!)And did he mention that he was a businessman? Because he's a businessman.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T01:47:14.001Z

Ireland, where a significant fraction of the paper economy is just US tech companies moving money in and out as a tax dodge? That Ireland?

— Nick P (@npilon.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T02:14:58.888Z

The topic that broke my brain completely was asking them how they could work with provinces to increase the number of doctors. Only Gould gave something resembling a coherent answer here. And again, when the topic changed to the carbon levy, everyone on the stage but Gould was utterly incoherent about how they would replace it (Gould would keep the levy but freeze it).

We've been convening the medical colleges for decades. How do you change that?!Baylis wants to redesign the system for chronic care (again, how is this federal?!) Freeland has an anecdote about a nurse practitioner! But doesn't say anything the *federal* government can do.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T02:25:28.637Z

Gould, correctly, says provinces don't have enough accountability for federal transfers, and points to how childcare agreements have specific guideposts. (The last round of federal transfers to have more strings and required action plans by provinces).

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T02:28:35.715Z

These answers on the carbon levy are *completely* incoherent (except for Gould, who is keeping but freezing it). Gould does admit that they didn't do a good job of talking about it, which no one else could muster the self-awareness to do.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T02:37:41.651Z

Baylis keeps saying "we'll build two pipelines."Who will? The federal government? Or do you think some proponent will swoop in with little economic case for it?

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-02-26T02:43:50.642Z

The final question was asking how they would differentiate themselves from Trudeau, and at first Freeland ignored the question, Gould talked around it before bringing up the fact that the party needs to get back to the grassroots, Baylis said he was going to be “focused on the economy” while Carney said he would be “laser-focused on the economy,” before adding that he’s very hands-on, and has heard from the supporters in caucus that Trudeau didn’t build many relationships with MPs, which he would do. The moderator circled back to Freeland, who talked about the campaign being a “personal liberation,” and that her style of leadership isn’t to be a “one-man band,” which is a pretty big repudiation of Trudeau’s leadership style (though I would say it’s more like a two-man band, because it’s more of a joint Trudeau-Katie Telford effort).

Overall, it was a mixed bag, and I couldn’t really determine someone I felt was a winner. Chrystia Freeland had some of the strongest responses, but some of the weakest delivery and framing of responses, and was very invested in playing nice in order to get second-place votes (because this is a ranked ballot). Gould was strong on many responses, but completely out to lunch on others, which tainted her credibility. Mark Carney kept repeating that he wants to “build the economy.” Over and over and again. Constantly. He still resorted largely to platitudes, and didn’t seem to have a good grasp of a lot of files because they have been out of his bailiwick, and his attempt at attacking Poilievre got cringey in place (Poilievre worships Trump? Really?) And then there was Frank Baylis, who kept reminding us that he’s a businessman. Over and over again, but his constant bizarre refrains about strengthening the dollar (at the expense of our exports?) and the whole thing about Ireland were just completely out to lunch, to say nothing about the fantasy economics of his pipeline plans.

Maybe I’m being too harsh of a critic, but nobody came out ahead.

Ukraine Dispatch

Another overnight attack on the Kyiv region has killed one person, injured four, and set several houses on fire. There also appears to be some progress on a critical minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, but we’ll see if it actually happens.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1894322734047310319

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Roundup: Unilateral Arctic plans and foreign aid churlishness

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Pierre Poilievre called a press conference from Iqaluit, yesterday, where he announced his Arctic policy ideas, which include finally building an air force base in the region, doubling the number of Canadian Rangers, and building two more heavy icebreakers, but for the Royal Canadian Navy and not the Coast Guard. Oh, and that he was going to pay for it all by gutting foreign aid. Set aside the fact that the plans for an Arctic base have long been in the works with slow progress, but does the Navy even want icebreaker capability? They didn’t want the slushbreakers—sorry, Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships that the Harper government decided they needed, and here is another Conservative who wants to impose capabilities that they have not asked for, because reasons. Nevertheless, this whole thing set off the premier of Nunavut, who noted there was zero consultation on these policies, and pointed to actual sovereignty-affirming things that governments should be doing for the north that aren’t this kind of performative flexing.

As for Poilievre’s disdain for foreign aid, it’s one-part monkey-see-monkey-do with MAGA and Elon Musk dismantling USAID, but it’s juvenile, provincial, and ignores that foreign aid is soft power that also does thinks like not let Russia and China swoop in and start winning hearts and minds in those countries, which is what Trump opened the door to, and which Poilievre seems keen to follow, justified by a number of lies about the recipients of that aid based on the fact that UNRWA may have had a handful of compromised employees. He doesn’t care about the realities of this aid spending and the projection of soft power, because those recipients can’t vote for him, and he’s playing into tired populist tropes about “taking care of people at home,” even though they actually don’t care about vulnerable people at home, and just want a tax cut instead of actually helping anyone. And again, Poilievre doesn’t care.

If anything, Canada should actually be living up to its previous pledges about increased funding for foreign assistance, particularly because the dismantling of USAID is going to affect programmes that Canada was partnering with them on, and they provided much of the “thought leadership” in the space. Children are going to die of malnutrition, and preventable illness, HIV infections are going to skyrocket, and again, Poilievre doesn’t care because those people can’t vote for him. What a bleak, cursèd timeline we live in right now.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Ukrainian drone attack damaged an industrial facility—possibly an oil refinery—in Russia’s Saratov region. The US’ “freeze” of aid money means that organisations helping investigate Russian war crimes can’t pay staff or continue their work—Trump and Musk just doing Putin’s bidding.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1888916130254725208

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Roundup: Being precious about participating in the gong show

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Fewer things make me roll my eyes harder the NDP being precious about decorum or the dysfunction within the House of Commons, and it is no exception when Charlie Angus despairs about the gong show happening day-in and day-out. As much as they like to pretend that they are the “adults in the room”—and Peter Julian likes to go on television to say that whenever he’s invited on—but adults in the room don’t heckle constantly (and both Julian and Angus are amongst the very worst—remember the pledge that they were never going to heckle in 2011?), nor do they engage in constant petty insults in order to make themselves look tougher than they are, but that’s what the NDP does day-in and day-out.

The thrust of the piece linked above, however, remains the current filibustered state of the Commons (for which the writer does point out the problems with the motion without going as far as actually calling what it is—banana republic tactics that will have severe consequences in the future if a precedent is allowed to develop), and that if anything is going to get things back on track, it’s going to have to be the NDP who comes to some kind of agreement with the government in order to break the logjam so that important legislation can start moving again. What the piece doesn’t go into is how this has been an ongoing problem in the past two parliaments, since the Liberals lost their majority in 2019. That was when the Conservatives began a campaign of procedural warfare that the Bloc and NDP gleefully participated in because they would do anything to embarrass the government—right up until the end of the sitting, every December and June, and suddenly realize they had bills they wanted to pass, so they started to cooperate. The Supply-and-Confidence agreement mellowed this out a little, but only slightly, as committees continued to get worse, and the NDP were hit-and-miss on whether they wanted to make things work or not.

I am somewhat ruefully reminded of the litany of books and articles that used to constantly come out to praise minority parliaments, and how great they were because they would force parties to work together to get things done for Canadians. That hasn’t been the case for a long time now, and given that the NDP proved themselves to be bad faith actors in how they ended the supply-and-confidence agreement, it’s going to be a long time before they are awarded any trust again, at least not until they have a new leader who can earn it back. But if they do want to make the remainder of this parliament work, they have a lot to answer for, and it would be great if more people could call them on their bullshit.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces say that Russians are using North Korean troops in significant numbers as they conduct assaults in the occupied regions of Kursk. Ukrainian drones conducted an overnight attack Friday and hit a crucial Russian oil facility in the Oryol region, and Ukrainian special forces destroyed a Russian train carrying 40 cars of fuel to Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1868270966528201142

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Roundup: Healthy tensions made dramatic

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The Globe and Mail had one of those stories that sets the cat among the pigeons, where they got a number of sources to describe the tensions between PMO and the department of finance over their spending plans, and in particular that the PMO was adamant that they wanted to do that stupid GST “holiday”/rebate cheque programme, while Chrystia Freeland was trying to keep a lid on spending because she had fiscal anchors that she was trying to stick to.

As for those anchors, Freeland had her usual Tuesday economic good news press conferences yesterday, and very deliberately said that the Fiscal Update next Monday will show that the debt-to-GDP ratio fiscal anchor would be met—but steadfastly refused to mention the other two fiscal anchors she spoke of in the spring, being a cap on the size of the deficit, and a target for the deficit to be less than one percent of GDP by 2026-27. Freeland repeatedly said that the debt-to-GDP ratio was the one that mattered and that we would see on Monday that it was continuing to decline, but the interpretation of that statement is essentially that the deficit will indeed by higher than $40.1 billion, but that overall GDP grew enough that the higher number is less of an issue. We’ll have to see on Monday, but she very much appeared to be telegraphing lowered expectations.

As for those tensions, if anyone has been around Parliament Hill for any length of time, this should be normal. PMO wants to do things that are politically expedient, and that usually involves spending money, which finance tries to rein in as much as they can. This appears to be little different from that very ordinary standard operating procedure. This, of course, didn’t stop Pierre Poilievre from pouncing on this in QP as proof that the PM has “lost control” of his Cabinet (which is risible on the face of it), and every journalist was trying to get some kind of comment on it (when they weren’t trying to get a comment on Trump’s latest slights). Maybe I’ve been up here too long but “PMO wants to spend money, finance tries to say no” isn’t really news. That’s a day that ends in y. Maybe we don’t need to be so breathlessly dramatic about everything all the time?

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a clinic in Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday, killing at least six and injuring at least 22. A missile attack also damaged an industrial facility in Taganrog the same night. President Zelenskyy says that he used his meeting with Trump in Paris to raise the issue of security guarantees.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1866509325197316109

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