Roundup: The funeral in London, and the memorial in Ottawa

The funeral service for the Queen went ahead in Westminster Abbey yesterday, before she was laid to rest at Windsor Castle. Canada had one of the largest contingents there, including horseback Mounties leading the procession (and perhaps that is all the Mounties should be after they are dismantled). I will note that it was amusing how many UK and American outlets were confused by the presence of Sandra Oh at the event as part of the procession of honours recipients, along with Mark Tewksbury to represent Canada. A non-scandal has also been erupting in certain media outlets where the prime minister *gasp!* sang at a piano in his hotel lobby a couple of nights ago. *yawn*

https://twitter.com/Canadian_Crown/status/1571838803945443329

In Ottawa, the national memorial ceremony for the Queen took place in Christ Church Cathedral down the street from Parliament Hill, and as attended by most MPs and senators, with former Governor General Adrienne Clarkson and former prime minister Brian Mulroney speaking (and yes, there was a public appearance by the Canadian Secretary to the King). It also featured a couple of musical interludes, including Rufus Wainwright singing Leonard Cohen’s Hallelujah, which is probably really appropriate for a memorial for the Queen (seriously, guys, it’s a song about sex), but it was a lovely service nevertheless.

https://twitter.com/Yasir_Naqvi/status/1572039552394575877

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 208:

A Russian missile struck 300 metres away from the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear plant in southern Ukraine, so that’s concerning.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskaUA/status/1571855017816072195

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Roundup: Getting better at plain-language explainers

Because this is the age of disinformation, it’s good when institutions start recognising that and offering plain-language explainers to help dispel the falsehoods that are swirling—especially when those falsehoods are being spread by sitting MPs and leadership candidates for political parties. In this case, it’s the Bank of Canada, and the notion of whether they printed money during the pandemic. They didn’t, and they had explainers on their site before, but this is much more accessible, which is really necessary right now—particularly given that the government can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag, which makes the job of defending institutions even harder (especially as the media is pretty much useless in this endeavour as well, too content to simply both-sides everything).

Of course, the replies to this thread are an absolute tire fire, so we’re nowhere near out of the woods yet, but it’s a good first step that needs to happen. (And listen to Captain Pike when you get tempted to read the comments).

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 183:

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was knocked off of the Ukrainian power grid after a fire damaged a transmission line, raising fears that we could be headed toward another Chernobyl-like disaster. (Incoming power is needed for the reactors’ cooling systems, but there are some back-up power supplies). It was later re-connected, but this remains a problem, and radiation from such a meltdown could spread across Europe under the right conditions. Meanwhile, Putin is ordering a major troop replenishment after suffering heavy losses in the fighting in Ukraine.

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Roundup: Inflation starts to cool

The CPI figures were released yesterday morning, and the headline number has cooled from its peak, and in July was running at an annualized rate of 7.6 percent, the decrease largely being driven by lower gasoline prices. Of course, there are still plenty of other drivers that are keeping it high, some of which are things like food (largely being driven by factors like climate change), hotel stays, and airline charges. But rather than exploring what these drivers are, most of the coverage of the day was focused on the usual wailing and gnashing of teeth that prices are high and demands for the government to do something about it, which, short of wage and price controls—which don’t really work—they can’t do much about. And no, “just give everyone money” is not a solution because that drives demand further. Same as tax cuts or breaks, and in fact, increasing taxes is generally a good way to dampen inflation. Regardless, there is a real incurious narrative to this in the media, which is not surprising, unfortunately.

Meanwhile, here is Kevin Carmichael’s hot take on the figures, while Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem took to the pages of the National Post to offer some reassurance that the Bank is on the case. Economist Stephen Gordon explains the data here on video. Heather Scoffield warns that even if inflation peaked there are too many factors keeping it high for some time to come. And here is a look at the StatsCan analysts who compile the inflation data.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 175:

There was another explosion at an ammunition depot at a military base in Russian-occupied Crimea, and the Ukrainian government will neither confirm nor deny involvement, though they are mockingly calling it “demilitarization,” as a play on Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine.

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Roundup: A deal to ship grain?

We’re now in day one-hundred-and-fifty of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and an agreement has been signed that will allegedly allow Ukrainian grain to flow again from their Black Sea ports. Allegedly. No one really trusts Russia to actually live up to their end of the bargain, but we’ll see. Apparently one of the conditions to this agreement is that Ukraine doesn’t raise the issue of the grain that Russia stole from them, so we’ll see what happens from here. Meanwhile, CBC has a video package of the past week in the war.

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1550434643094249472

https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1550537176592822272

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1550450333545123841

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Roundup: Trying for a left-wing populist narrative

It’s day one-hundred-and-forty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have been pounding Kharkiv, mostly by randomly shelling residential areas to inflict civilian casualties. But as this shelling takes place, the head of MI6 in the UK says that their analysis shows that Russia’s army is nearly exhausted, and that this will open up opportunities for Ukrainian forces to counter-attack in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Turkey says that Russia and Ukraine are about to sign a deal that will re-open Black Sea ports and allow grain shipments to pass through again, and hopefully avert the threat of famines (and likely lower world grain prices). There are still a lot of questions—including whether Russia can actually be trusted—but we’ll see what happens in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1550193058809090054

Closer to home, Jagmeet Singh is trying to play the populist card, and it’s just laughable. It’s like the satire of a populist’s talking points (not that the NDP hasn’t morphed itself from a principled left-wing party to a left-flavoured populist one more than a decade ago). Like Singh and his inner circle looked at Pierre Poilievre’s traction and said “get me a piece of that action,” so they tried to ape his talking points. It’s risible, and it’s a sign of the intellectual vacuum at the centre of our political parties (and no, Liberals, you don’t get to be smug about this one either as your party can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag).

https://twitter.com/theJagmeetSingh/status/1550180051152404482

There are no “Ottawa elites” who are “enraged” by your suggestion. Yes, it got a bunch of scorn from, well, everyone because the last thing you want to do when you’re facing high inflation is to just give everyone even more money. Targeted help, sure, but social assistance and disability are provincial programmes, whereas the Canada Child Benefit is too broad a programme that it has been considered stimulus by the government and every credible economist, which is the last thing you want right now. The GST credit can maybe be a vehicle as it’s more targeted, but you need to be specific about that. As for the notion that corporate price gouging has caused inflation is flat-out wrong (even if it has contributed in a small way). Taxing oil companies won’t solve inflation, and an “excess profit tax” is a fraught move because it gets very tricky to come up with a workable definition of “excess,” particularly given the fact that a) the economy is overheated so of course businesses are going to be making more profit, and b) the world price of oil has more to do with supply constraints and capacity constraints for refining, so just taxing it more doesn’t actually solve any problems. But this kind of ham-fisted economic illiteracy does nothing for Singh’s credibility, and just drags the discourse even further down.

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Roundup: Standing for the Emergencies Act inquiry

It’s now day one-hundred-and-twenty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian long-range bombers struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in central Ukraine that had over a thousand people inside, leaving 13 dead and over 40 injured. Further east, Russians are now advancing on Lysychansk, but because it is higher up the river banks, it is a more defensible position for Ukrainian forces, and that could tie up Russian forces for months.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1541528786474356737

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with G7 leaders by video, and asked for more modern air defences, as well as even more sanctions as the ones that are in place are still not having enough of an effect. Zelenskyy also asked for assistance in unblocking Ukrainian ports so that they can get grain ships in, but this will mean de-mining work that could take weeks or months. Russia, meanwhile, looks set to default on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution, and here is an explainer of what that could mean.

Closer to home, Justice Paul Rouleau, heading up the public inquiry into the invocation of the Emergencies Act, has released the list of who he has granted standing to hear from, and lo, the Conservative Party is not on it. Citing precedents from previous inquiries like Gomery, Rouleau has basically concluded that the Conservatives had nothing substantive to add, other than to whinge that the Liberals were mean to them about their support for the occupation, and he’s not interested in partisan point-scoring.

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Roundup: Inviting anti-vaxx organisers onto the Hill

It’s day one-hundred-and-twenty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and no news out of Severodonetsk is presumed to be good news. That said, Russian forces have captured three other villages in the region, near the city of Lysychansk, which is across the river from Severokonetsk, so there is still movement in the region. There is optimism in the country, however, that their bid to join the EU will pass to the next stage during a summit this week. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, addressed University of Toronto students, and called on them to pressure governments to provide more aid to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DMokryk/status/1539548152432402432

Closer to home, a group of Conservative MPs, including leadership candidate Leslyn Lewis, hosted a trio of anti-vaxxer extremists and occupation organisers ahead of their planned Canada Day protests, and they did it within one of the Parliamentary office buildings just off of the Hill. Included in the group were a former Reservist being charged for a video promoting the occupation while in uniform, a former Trump advisor, and a former spokesperson for the occupation. And in case it’s not clear, they’re no longer talking about vaccine mandates, which have pretty much ended everywhere, but about regime change, and Conservatives are condoning it, if not outright encouraging it by saying “you have allies.” That’s not good. It’s especially not good when they’re talking about civil war in their discourse. Oh, and Candice Bergen’s office was aware this was going on, and did nothing to shut it down. It’s just unbelievable how clueless they are around this issue, when there is real potential for these violent online narratives to manifest into a real-world attack.

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1539718763465031680

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1539663123485179904

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1539693666830278660

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1539695139613945856

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Roundup: Summoning the hockey executives

It’s day one-hundred-and-eighteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and word has it that the Russians are trying to overcome Severodonestk by Sunday, thereby taking the whole of the Luhansk region. While the Ukrainians are being pounded by artillery, they are allegedly inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians, but they need more Western arms, and they need them to arrive even faster if they have any hope of taking out the Russian artillery that is pounding them. Ukraine, meanwhile, is planning on taking a bunch of destroyed Russian tanks and armoured vehicles on a tour around Europe to keep attention on the conflict as it drags on.

Closer to home, the attention on the Hill yesterday was on the heritage committee, where Hockey Canada officials were summoned to explain the payout to settle a sexual assault claim, and whether federal funds were used to do so in contravention of their funding agreements. The minister has ordered a forensic audit of their finances to ensure that this didn’t happen, but we did see MPs on all sides go hard on this, as they should have. (Note that the Conservatives did try to use this issue as a means of procedural warfare in their filibuster of the online broadcasting bill, which was absolutely skeezy). Here is some comment from former athlete and whistle-blower Alheli Picazo, who has experience with the problem of tackling abuse in sport:

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Roundup: A bill to swiftly pass?

We’re at day one-hundred-and-fifteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it sounds like Severodonestk is still contested territory, under constant Russian shelling making it impossible for civilians trapped under a chemical plant to escape. UK prime minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv for a second time, promising more arms as well as training for soldiers on a rotating basis. At the same time, the European Commission is recommending Ukraine for consideration for EU Membership. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian soldier who recorded the atrocities at Mariupol has been freed from Russian custody, while the Ukrainian Cabinet approved a resolution to bar Russian citizens from entering Ukraine without a visa.

Closer to home, the federal government tabled a new bill aimed at responding to the Supreme Court of Canada decision five weeks ago that allowed automatism as a defence in very narrow circumstances. The bill eliminates “self-induced extreme intoxication” as a defence, while leaving automatism out in those very rare cases where it would be unknowable that one might enter into this state, which points to the fact that in at least one of the cases before the Supreme Court that led to the provisions being struck down was that it was simply a bad trip that they didn’t know would happen as he had never done mushrooms before. David Lametti also indicated that he’s been in discussion with the other parties, and it sounds like this could be a bill that gets passed at all stages next week before the House of Commons rises for the summer (and likely leaving any actual scrutiny up to the Senate, if they have the appetite to do so before they also rise, way too early).

I also did note that during the press conference announcing the bill, minister Marci Ien had some fairly critical words for her former media colleagues in how the Supreme Court of Canada decision had been reported, where the headlines were that “extreme intoxication is a defence,” which isn’t what the judgment said, and the judgment very clearly differentiated between extreme intoxication and a state of automatism. Nevertheless, bad headlines led to disinformation that was making people afraid (and Ien cited her own daughter’s experiences reading social media about this decision, and she listed some of the figures that these disinformation posts got in terms of likes and shares). And I remember reading those headlines, and listening to the outraged questions in QP in the days that followed, and having to sigh and point out that no, that’s not what the Supreme Court ruled, and it would help if they actually read the gods damned decision because it was all right there. But sadly this seems to be the state of the media discourse these days, so good on Ien for calling it out, especially given the fact that she was herself a journalist.

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Roundup: A lack of precognition

We’re now on day one-hundred-and-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and I couldn’t find any stories to link to on Canadian sites, as everything was about the January 6th committee in the US, because priorities. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s agriculture minister told the Canadian House of Commons agriculture committee that Russia has been raiding Ukraine’s grain stores, and then selling it on the world market using falsified documentation. As well, the RCMP say that they have cracked down on $400 million in Russian assets and transactions from sanctioned individuals.

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1534832733637287936

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1534808012962947072

Closer to home, the Bank of Canada released their Financial Systems Review yesterday, and made remarks about some of the vulnerabilities in the economy, such as high consumer debt levels and variable rate mortgages rising precipitously in the next few months as interest rates continue to rise in order to get inflation under control. They are confident the economy and households can handle the higher rates because the economy needs them.

This being said, I have to take some exception to the commentary happening on Power & Politics last night, and from the host in particular, who was expounding upon how central bankers got it “wrong” about inflation. Apparently they are supposed to have the power of precognitition and could accurately predict the fact that global supply chains would take longer to untangle than previously thought because China went into some serious lockdowns under a COVID-zero policy, that fuel shortages would drive up world oil prices before the Russia invaded Ukraine, and they were supposed to have properly foreseen said invasion and could adjust their inflation expectations accordingly. There have been an increasing number of unlikely scenarios that all pretty much happened across the world over the past two or three years, and you’re ragging on central bankers for not having properly tried to head it off? You can argue that they were too late to ease off on stimulative measures, even though their actions were largely in line with the advice and the data they had at the time, but going after them because they didn’t accurately predict a pandemic and a war? Sit down.

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