Roundup: Cozying up to separatists for the wrong reasons

The state of the UCP leadership contest in Albert continues to plumb new depths as many of the candidates are attending an event put on by a separatist group and Rebel “News”, without any particular compunction about doing so. Indeed, they are cosying up to these separatists openly, because they suffer from this completely insane misapprehension that threats of separatism gave Quebec all kinds of things from the federal government when that’s not true at all. In fact, the first referendum in Quebec quickly hollowed out its business sector—Montreal used to be the financial capital of the country, but the threat of separation had all of those head offices depart for Toronto, and the province’s economy suffered for decades as a result. Alberta will be little different if they start using the threat of separation to try and extract concession from Ottawa. As for the fact that this kind of event is selling access, that’s fairly par for the course in Alberta. The old one-party state system was rife with this kind of corruption, where business leaders got their way by donating to the party, or meeting the minister at the Petroleum Club for drinks, and the like. Access was absolutely for sale, and these UCP candidates are carrying on that corrupt tradition.

Meanwhile, when it comes to reminders that Stephen Harper sang the praises of the World Economic Forum when he was prime minister, I’m suspect any cognitive dissonance among the likes of Brian Jean in Alberta or Pierre Poilievre federally will be shrugged off, though it was pointed out to me that there is little indication that the conspiracy wing of the Conservative Party cares what Stephen Harper thinks, and I suspect that is true.

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1558184731187056640

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 171:

The focus remains on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and shelling in the area, which both sides blame each other for. While Russia controls the plant, Ukrainian engineers continue to operate it, and Ukrainian forces are moving to counterattack in the region, while in the Donetsk region, there was more shelling of the eastern town of Kramotorsk.

Continue reading

Roundup: A supposed “breakthrough” that amounted to nothing

Federal documents, albeit heavily redacted, are starting to be made public as part of the court challenge around the invocation of the Emergencies Act, and thus far we can see that the Ford government in Ontario offered to meet with those blockading the Ambassador bridge (and were rejected), that the federal government had briefly considered negotiating with the occupiers in front of Parliament Hill, but did not go ahead with it (which is just as well considering their demands were the overthrow of democracy in favour of a ruling junta of occupiers, senators, and the Governor General). The night before the Act was invoked, the government was informed of a “potential breakthrough” with the negotiations happening with the city, which again, were unsuccessful, and the Act was invoked.

This has of course proven to be fodder for certain Conservative leadership candidates who insist that this is some kind of smoking gun that invoking the Act was unnecessary, but that’s not what it indicates, and frankly, you shouldn’t negotiate with a group of right-wing extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievance tourists who think nothing of overturning democracy because their feelings got hurt. But this seems to be where we’re at, which is utterly boggling.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 170:

Analysis of that explosion on the Russian airbase in occupied Crimea shows that as many as twenty Russian warplanes may have been destroyed, which would be the largest single-day loss since World War II. (Kyiv still has not claimed responsibility for the explosion). The head of the International Atomic Agency is calling on Russia and Ukraine to halt shelling near the Zaporizechzhia nuclear plant, and to allow experts to evaluate the safety of the facility. Ukrainian forces have begun their counter-attack in the Kherson region, having recaptured 54 settlements (while 92 percent of the region remains under occupation). In Bucha, civilians murdered by Russians are being buried as numbers because they have not been identified by name. Meanwhile, in Denmark, Western countries pledged more support for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1557621932429819907

Continue reading

Roundup: Spyware or mass surveillance?

As summer showboat season rolls along, the Commons’ access to information, privacy and ethics committee continued their hearings on the RCMP’s use of spyware. And it was…odd. A senior RCMP member said that the RCMP has been using said spyware to break encryption since 2002 (while advocating for legislation to allow them to evade encryption). The former privacy commissioner said he was surprised to learn that the RCMP had been using this “intrusive” technology for years, and didn’t seek authorisation from his office, while the RCMP denied that they were using the “Pegasus” spyware system. And a former CSIS officer testified that they have monitored politicians at all three levels of government because they had concerns they were being paid by foreign governments. But Liberal MPs kept going on to questions about mass surveillance, which is not what this is about, nor within the capabilities of this spyware, and it makes me wonder if they were trying to put a neat bow on this to say “See, there’s no mass surveillance” without really engaging with the topic. And they tried to pass the motion to say “All wrapped up,” but that didn’t happen either. So I’m not really sure what’s going on other than more showboating from all sides, which is the given at this time of year.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 168:

There was much speculation about an explosion at a military airfield in Russian-occupied Crimea, creating much buzz over social media about whether this was a long-range missile strike from Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian officials denied this, but it could mean that Russians may have to fortify their own positions behind the lines on that peninsula, further stretching their resources. Meanwhile, Russian forces shelled the town of Nikopol, near the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, as Russians continue to shell the power lines leading from the plant in order to disconnect it from the Ukrainian grid so that they can begin the process to link it to Russia’s grid instead.

Continue reading

Roundup: Inviting premiers to shift the blame

It’s now day one-hundred-and-forty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and while Russian forces pound cities like Kramatorsk in the east, and targeted Odesa in the south, they are planning to begin annexing Ukrainian territory with installing proxy officials, false referenda, replacing the local currency and forcing people to apply for Russian citizenship. We know this because they did it in 2014 when they annexed Crimea, and they have a familiar MO.

Closer to home, there was a report out from Ontario’s Financial Accountability Officer yesterday that showed how Doug Ford and his merry band of incompetent murderclowns have been under-spending in a number of significant areas like healthcare, education, social supports that include things like autism therapy. Now, put this underspending into the same context of Ford crying poor and insisting that the federal government pony up more cash for healthcare, but he’s not even spending his own current budget allocation, he hasn’t reversed his cuts to nurses’ salaries, and he didn’t do enough when it comes to testing or tracing when it comes to the pandemic. The same report shows he only spent 58 percent of the pandemic funds the federal government sent over, putting the rest directly onto his bottom line to reduce the province’s deficit. And you wonder why the federal government wants strings attached to future funding, to ensure that it actually gets spent on the things it’s supposed to be spent on, and not being used to pad bottom lines.

On a related note, reporters were asking Justin Trudeau yesterday about the strain that emergency rooms are under, and when Trudeau noted the money they’ve sent to the provinces and that those dollars need to come with results, those same reporters frame this as “punting it” back to the provinces.

No.

It’s not punting—it’s the provinces’ gods damned jobs. And while this was justified as Trudeau campaigning on hiring more doctors and nurses, no—the campaign promise was to send $3.2 billion to the provinces to hire doctors and nurses, and it’s not rocket science to understand that this is the kind of thing he’s trying to attach strings to before he sends those cheques to the provinces, so that he knows that they’re going to actually spend it to hire doctors and nurses (and one presumes actually pay them properly) and that it won’t wind up padding their bottom lines like we just watched Doug Ford do. And I’m not trying to insinuate that the reporters are playing gotcha or that they’re being partisan, because they’re not—they’re trying to do their jobs, but they’re doing it with a grave misunderstanding about how jurisdiction works, and this nonsense belief that nobody cares about it. The problem is that they have to care, because that’s how we hold people to account for the work they’re supposed to be doing, which the premiers aren’t. Because media keeps giving them this out and trying to pin things on Trudeau “because nobody cares about jurisdiction,” and the only lever he has is to try and attach strings to funding and nothing else—the federal government cannot hire doctors and nurses because they have no authority to do so—it gives the provinces an out so that they can shift blame when it’s their gods damned responsibility. We need the media to understand this and hold the right people to account for their failures, and right now, that’s the gods damned premiers.

Continue reading

Roundup: 100 basis points, because the Bank of Canada is serious

It’s day one-hundred-and-forty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with Russian forces trying to turn the entire Donbas region to ashes with continued shelling, Ukrainian forces have been trying to reclaim some ground in the south, hitting another ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka. Russian missiles struck the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia, as a show of their determination to hang onto their gains in the south.

Closer to home, the Bank of Canada raised their key overnight rate by 100 basis points, so that interest rates are now sitting at 2.5 percent, which is in the middle of their estimated “neutral” range of two and three percent. This means that the rate is not supposed to be either stimulative or contractionary. The hike was so high in large part because of the shock value—the Bank wants to break any psychological expectation that can lead to an inflationary spiral, where people keep expecting inflation to keep rising, and behave in ways that reinforce it. This goes for wages as well, and the Bank is trying hard to send signals that will hopefully keep a wage spiral from happening, where wages rise to meet inflation, which just increases demand and stokes inflation, and the cycle becomes self-reinforcing. The Monetary Policy Report also included an interesting section where the Bank examined why their previous estimates went wrong, and while they didn’t conclude that it’s because they don’t have a division of precognitive psychics guiding policy, they did find that a lot of the global shocks didn’t factor into their calculations. One such example was oil prices—their modelling used oil prices as being stable, but when they jumped, that threw off their modelling. And the invasion of Ukraine really did a number on everyone’s models, so the Bank of Canada wasn’t unique there.

When it comes to political reaction, both the Conservatives and the NDP sent out press releases freaking out. The Conservatives blame government spending for inflation, instead of its actual causes, and freak out that the cure is high interest rates, as though one can have it both ways in perpetuity. (This is the alleged “party of sound economic management,” who continually prove they are fiscally illiterate). The NDP think the cause of inflation is price gouging, instead of the actual causes (which isn’t to say that there hasn’t been some, but it’s not the cause), and therefore interest rates going up punishes people. Which is also missing the point. And it would be nice if we had opposition parties that were economically literate and capable of challenging the government on its bullshit rather than on largely imaginary problems.

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1547403312378650627

Continue reading

Roundup: On oaths to the Queen

We’re in day one-hundred-and-twenty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and much of the attention has been on the reverberations of the attack on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk, where the death toll is up to 18, with more than 20 missing, and many more wounded. French president Emmanuel Macron denounced the attack, and said that because of it, Russia “cannot and should not win” the war (but then again, Macron’s attempts to get Ukraine to give territorial concessions to end the conflict is not exactly reflecting well on him either). As well, CBC interviews a Ukrainian marine who survived the battle of Mariupol with severe injuries before spending two weeks as a Russian prisoner of war before he was able to be sent back to Ukraine for treatment.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1541839370747011072

Meanwhile, Turkey has dropped their objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, which means that their membership can move ahead. This while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is talking about an eight-fold increase in Western troops being placed at an increased state of readiness, and more troops headed to the Baltic states, to make Russia very aware that they really, really shouldn’t cross their borders.

https://twitter.com/AnnLinde/status/1541877388937728005

https://twitter.com/ChristinsQueens/status/1541845991225278474

Closer to home, I spent way too much time yesterday being angry at a garbage piece of Canadian Press wire copy that was bad PR masquerading as a news story. I mean, we’re not even a week into Parliament’s summer recess, and this is what CP is using as void fill for the news hole? The piece claims that 56 percent of Canadians oppose the oath of allegiance to the Queen, then cites a “poll,” but it wasn’t actually a poll, it was online panels that are not actually random samples, but that fact isn’t mentioned until six paragraphs down. The only person quoted in the piece is the guy who runs the think tank who commissioned the panels, and he says that most Canadians are unaware that newcomers have to swear an oath to be “faithful to the Royal Family,” which is a wilful distortion of the truth. The oath is to the Queen and her “heirs and successors,” because heredity is kind of the point of monarchy. It’s not the whole Royal Family. Nobody is swearing fealty to Prince Andrew, or even Princess Anne for that matter. And for a think tank that claims to be devoted to increasing Canadians’ knowledge of their country, that kind of distortion is malpractice at best, but I suspect it’s more about trying to build a case that the monarchy is not a unifying force, particularly for immigrants. As for the CP journalist, this was simply retyping a press release with no added context. There were no basic civics in there about how we’re a constitutional monarchy, that the Queen of Canada is different from the Queen of the UK, or that the oath to the Queen is not to her natural person, but to the Crown as the central organizing principle of our constitution (which is why we would need to rewrite the entire thing if we ever were insane enough to ditch the monarchy—not that we would ever get the unanimous agreement of the provinces to do so). It’s really disappointing that CP has descended to this kind of stenography when they used to be one of the most enviable bureaux on the Hill.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1541409039330021380

Continue reading

Roundup: Standing for the Emergencies Act inquiry

It’s now day one-hundred-and-twenty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian long-range bombers struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in central Ukraine that had over a thousand people inside, leaving 13 dead and over 40 injured. Further east, Russians are now advancing on Lysychansk, but because it is higher up the river banks, it is a more defensible position for Ukrainian forces, and that could tie up Russian forces for months.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1541528786474356737

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with G7 leaders by video, and asked for more modern air defences, as well as even more sanctions as the ones that are in place are still not having enough of an effect. Zelenskyy also asked for assistance in unblocking Ukrainian ports so that they can get grain ships in, but this will mean de-mining work that could take weeks or months. Russia, meanwhile, looks set to default on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution, and here is an explainer of what that could mean.

Closer to home, Justice Paul Rouleau, heading up the public inquiry into the invocation of the Emergencies Act, has released the list of who he has granted standing to hear from, and lo, the Conservative Party is not on it. Citing precedents from previous inquiries like Gomery, Rouleau has basically concluded that the Conservatives had nothing substantive to add, other than to whinge that the Liberals were mean to them about their support for the occupation, and he’s not interested in partisan point-scoring.

Continue reading

Roundup: Reverberations north of the border

We’re now in day one-hundred-and-twenty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and it looks like the battle for Severodonestk is ending as Ukrainian forces are withdrawing before they are completely encircled. That means Russians are now advancing on its twin city of Lysychansk, across the river, which will secure hold on the Luhansk province. More heavy American weaponry is arriving, but we’ll see if it’s enough to change the balance.

Closer to home, there was a lot of reaction in Canada to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v Wade decision, which essentially re-criminalises abortions in many states. Conservative leadership candidate Leslyn Lewis was quick to jump on it to encourage an “adult conversation” about it in Canada, which apparently involves abortion doctors being mind-readers and taking away these rights from women in other countries. (Other Conservative leadership candidates, including Pierre Poilievre, have reiterated that they are pro-choice). There are also a bunch of voices, some of whom are concern trolling, others of whom are genuinely clueless, who point out that Justin Trudeau hasn’t done anything to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution, which is a) dumb, and b) counter-productive as it actually plays into the hands of anti-abortionists who would use the opportunity to introduce limits. Yes, Trudeau has promised more about access, and he has tasked both ministers Duclos and Ien with consultations on adding regulations to the Canada Health Act around abortion access, but that’s not something that can happen overnight, as there is a process for regulation, and as we have long established, putting strings on healthcare funding for provinces is touchy business. But provinces are where the fight is in Canada, because they control access.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1540380879519875073

There was also a number of news programmes yesterday which ran interviews with anti-abortionists in a completely uncritical fashion, allowing them to frame the conversation in their usual bullshit terms, and getting only the most minor pushback to some of their claims of popular support for their cause. These kinds of uncritical interviews are key to how misinformation and disinformation is spread through the media, because they have no capacity to do anything other than both-sides the issue, which again, allows misinformation and disinformation to spread because it isn’t challenged. We are fully in the age of disinformation, and our media outlets have learned absolutely nothing about how to deal with it, and yesterday was case in point about that.

Continue reading

Roundup: O’Toole emerges, with zero self-reflection

It’s day one-hundred-and-seventeen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the standoff in Severodonestk continues amid worsening morale on both sides. There are reports that whole Russian units are refusing orders, between poor front-line conditions, poor equipment and lack of personnel. While president Voldymyr Zelenskyy visited cities in the south of the country, promising not to abandon them, NATO’s secretary general is warning members that this conflict could last for years at this pace.

Closer to home, Erin O’Toole has finally emerged from his basement podcast studio and ventured back to Ottawa, and he gave an interview to Chris Hall on CBC Radio late in the week, which was broadcast Saturday. I’m not sure what I should have been expecting, but it was about as self-serving as one might expect, and shows pretty much no self-reflection about his loss, or the fact that he has a problem telling the truth, which was just as evident in this interview as it’s been elsewhere. Sometimes people grow a conscience or a spine after a little time away from the office, but O’Toole certainly doesn’t seem to have done that.

To wit, he kept insisting that he was trying to find a “balance” when it came to the occupation, and that he wasn’t engaging with its leadership (debatable) but he wasn’t going to forbid his caucus from meeting with constituents (never mind that we could all see that their primary demand was to overturn democracy). He insisted that the party has never tried to politicise “personal health choices,” referring to vaccinations, but seriously? You have a significant portion of your caucus who opposes the personal health choices around abortion and who strongly politicise it, and you have others who are openly spreading conspiracy theories around vaccinations. He claimed that when people come up to him with WEF conspiracy theories or the likes that he tries to challenge them, which we know is bullshit because he has openly promulgated a variety of conspiracy theories as leader, and has been silent about his caucus promoting others. He is trying to blame China for the loss of several seats, crying disinformation over WeChat, but apparently irony died because he and his party have absolutely no qualms about disinformation on domestic issues when it suits them. As for his loss as either party leader or in the election, he offered no personal reflection or insight, aside from an admission he didn’t communicate well enough, but really? Nothing about realizing that you can’t try to play both sides out in the open, or that you shouldn’t be switching your positions on the daily, or that you utterly lacked convictions on anything? No, just that you didn’t communicate well enough. Okay, sure. Keep telling yourself that.

Continue reading

Roundup: A lack of precognition

We’re now on day one-hundred-and-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and I couldn’t find any stories to link to on Canadian sites, as everything was about the January 6th committee in the US, because priorities. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s agriculture minister told the Canadian House of Commons agriculture committee that Russia has been raiding Ukraine’s grain stores, and then selling it on the world market using falsified documentation. As well, the RCMP say that they have cracked down on $400 million in Russian assets and transactions from sanctioned individuals.

https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1534832733637287936

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1534808012962947072

Closer to home, the Bank of Canada released their Financial Systems Review yesterday, and made remarks about some of the vulnerabilities in the economy, such as high consumer debt levels and variable rate mortgages rising precipitously in the next few months as interest rates continue to rise in order to get inflation under control. They are confident the economy and households can handle the higher rates because the economy needs them.

This being said, I have to take some exception to the commentary happening on Power & Politics last night, and from the host in particular, who was expounding upon how central bankers got it “wrong” about inflation. Apparently they are supposed to have the power of precognitition and could accurately predict the fact that global supply chains would take longer to untangle than previously thought because China went into some serious lockdowns under a COVID-zero policy, that fuel shortages would drive up world oil prices before the Russia invaded Ukraine, and they were supposed to have properly foreseen said invasion and could adjust their inflation expectations accordingly. There have been an increasing number of unlikely scenarios that all pretty much happened across the world over the past two or three years, and you’re ragging on central bankers for not having properly tried to head it off? You can argue that they were too late to ease off on stimulative measures, even though their actions were largely in line with the advice and the data they had at the time, but going after them because they didn’t accurately predict a pandemic and a war? Sit down.

Continue reading