Roundup: Contradictions and poor intelligence practices

There has been a number of competing threads in the ongoing Emergencies Act public inquiry, and a lot of police testimony that is contradictory, and contradicting their own documentary evidence. For example, one senior Ottawa police officer is claiming that they had the tow trucks all lined up and ready to go without the invocation of the Act—erm, except the documents don’t show that at all, and that they needed the Act to secure those services. There has also been a lot of alarming signs about the quality of police intelligence about the make-up of the occupation (which many leaders subsequently ignored anyway). The OPP did see an increasing risk of violence the longer it dragged on, particularly by those in the occupation who felt they were “at war” with the federal government, along with growing anti-police sentiment (presumably because police weren’t doing their bidding to arrest members of the government). The Commission has agreed to hear CSIS’ evidence behind closed doors.

Here’s former CSIS analyst Jessica Davis on the quality of that intelligence, and yikes:

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 245:

Both Russian and NATO forces carried out annual nuclear exercises, while Russia carries on its false narrative that Ukrainians plan to detonate a “dirty bomb” on their own soil in order to blame Russia—information operations entirely. While this was happening, Russian forces targeted 40 towns in Ukraine, killing at least two more people.

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Roundup: A hospitalized interpreter should be a wake-up call, but probably won’t be

The inevitable has happened, and a parliamentary interpreter collapsed during a Senate committee meeting after an acoustic shock and was sent to hospital as a result, when the committee chair decided to go ahead with a meeting despite the fact that two witnesses appearing by video did not have appropriate headsets. And to add to matters, this interpreter was a freelancer and not in the union, so they won’t be getting sick pay for this injury either, given that they were filling in for the full-time, unionised interpreters who are on leave for the injuries they are all facing because of hybrid sessions and meetings, and the fact that the vast majority of MPs and senators simply do not care about their well-being, or the fact that these kinds of acoustic injuries can lead to permanent hearing loss. They don’t care because it would mean giving up the luxury of staying in their ridings rather than coming to Ottawa when they don’t want to, even if it means treating the interpretation staff like furniture. (And as we’ve established, they cannot simply hire more interpreters because there aren’t any more to hire—they’re not even graduating enough to meet the level of attrition from retirements and those quitting from injuries).

To add to this was Government House Leader Mark Holland appearing at the Procedure and House Affairs Committee, where they are debating extending hybrid sittings, possibly permanently, and he spoke about his suicide attempt after his 2011 election loss and used that tale as justification for extending hybrid. And as brave as Holland is to share that story, I find myself deeply disturbed by the fact that he is using it to push for a morally bankrupt proposition around making hybrid sittings permanent when he knows the human cost to them. I am also appalled that the lesson is trying to be “when an MP is struggling, let them work from home” rather than “when an MP is struggling, let them take the time they need to get better and not create an unrealistic and dangerous expectation of presenteeism.” MPs are allowed sick days and leaves of absence. They do not need to be on call 24/7, or to vote on every single issue. There were rules about pairing for absences for decades, and they worked just fine. It’s the same with the groups who keep appearing at PROC, such as Equal Voice, who insist that we need to make hybrid permanent to let more women with children participate in Parliament—it ignores the human toll on the interpreters (and when you raise it, they simply handwave it away with the magic words “we need to find a solution”), and frankly these MPs have the luxury of options when it comes to arrangements they can make. Hybrid or virtual sittings injures interpreters. If there is a technological solution, Parliament has been ignoring it. It is frankly morally reprehensible that they continue to have this debate at the expense of the health of these interpreters. It would be great if this publicised injury and hospitalisation were a wake-up call, but I am frankly too cynical at this point to believe that is going to happen.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 244:

Russia continues to claim that Ukraine is planning to use a “dirty bomb,” which sounds increasingly like pretext for Russia to detonate one, and that they have been using their occupation of the Zaphorizhzhia nuclear plant to build it.

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Roundup: Ford tries to escape testifying

Some drama is emerging from the Emergencies Act public inquiry, as we find out that Doug Ford and Sylvia Jones, his then-solicitor general, have refused to be interviewed by the Commissioner, and have refused to testify before it. Recall that just last week, Doug Ford said that he hadn’t been asked to testify when asked (because it makes no sense that he and Jones were not on the list). Well, today, we found out that they were asked, they refused, and now the Commissioner plans to summon them, but Ford intends to challenge that summons under the rubric of parliamentary privilege, which would seem to me to be abusing it, but there you have it.

https://twitter.com/SkinnerLyle/status/1584624171598086145

Meanwhile, the acting Ottawa police chief was testifying, and it was a lot more of the same when it comes to police not taking the threat of an occupation seriously, and them essentially ignoring the intelligence that was being forwarded to them, and lo, these “protesters” turned into an illegal occupation. There was also an email filed from RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki who said that they hadn’t exhausted all tools before the Act was invoked, for what that’s worth.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1584574961339203586

https://twitter.com/aballinga/status/1584612932595638275

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 243:

Ukrainian officials are claiming greater success in shooting down drones attacking electrical infrastructure, but worries are now that Russia will try to detonate a “dirty bomb” within their territory as they have essentially announced the intention to do so and blame it on the Ukrainians doing it to frame Russia. If it wasn’t such a terrifying prospect, it would be really, really stupid. Meanwhile, doctors in the country are worried about spending the winter months in the basements of hospitals as electrical systems are under attack.

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Roundup: A potential recruiting ground

It was outgoing Ottawa mayor Jim Watson’s turn to present to the Emergencies Act public inquiry yesterday, and it sounds like he was also caught up in the thinking that the occupation would fizzle by the first Tuesday, as the previous protest convoy had done. The most interesting part was a transcript of a call between Watson and Justin Trudeau where Trudeau accused Doug Ford of hiding from his responsibilities, given that he checked out of this process early on, and that he was doing it for political reasons. There was also concern that the OPP and RCMP had not sent as many people as they promised. In response to the reported comments at the inquiry, Ontario’s current solicitor general sent a huffy missive to media outlets saying that they don’t interfere with police operations and ensured that they provided tools for Ottawa, which clearly, they did not. Of course, Watson also said that he feels the federal and provincial governments have “equal responsibility” for policing in the occupation context, which…is not how this works.

We also learned that CSIS didn’t believe the occupation had the involve of foreign actors, but they were concerned that this was going to be a recruiting ground for harder-edged, violent far-right groups (which is a pretty coherent concern that unfortunately seems to be growing).

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 237:

Approximately one-third of Ukrainian power stations have suffered damage from Russian attacks, either from missiles or kamikaze drones, as the regime tries to demoralise the Ukrainian people.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1582285715970613248

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Roundup: A minor Cabinet swap

As expected, there was a very minor Cabinet shuffle yesterday, and it was less of a shuffle than a two-person swap. Filomena Tassi takes over as minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency of Southern Ontario, while the incumbent, Helena Jaczek, takes over as minister of public services and procurement. The reason? Tassi’s husband suffered two strokes, and has had a difficult recovery, so she requested a lighter workload, and Trudeau obliged. Jaczek, meanwhile, is a former Ontario health minister, so she’s not unaccustomed to big files. What is perhaps most significant is that Trudeau accommodated her in order to ensure that she didn’t have to choose between family and her job, which is a very rare thing, even in this day and age where there remains an expectation that women give up their jobs and careers in order to play caretaker roles. That kind of a signal should count for something.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 189:

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrived at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant yesterday, in an attempt to stabilise the situation there. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that his forces are attacking Russian positions along the entire front line, trying to retake the south as well as going on the offensive in the east. We’ll see in the coming days how effective this has been, but British intelligence suggests that there have been successes in three parts of the southern region, but didn’t give any details.

Good reads:

  • Following the shuffle, Trudeau said that Canadians have lost faith in the leadership of Hockey Canada, as they insist on retaining their CEO for some unknown reason.
  • Trudeau also said the government would look into allegations that a CSIS informant smuggled teenaged girls from the UK into Syria.
  • Chrystia Freeland insists that Albertans are “kind and welcoming” in spite of being accosted last week. (They’re kind and welcoming if you conform, you mean).
  • Pablo Rodriguez has belatedly condemned the antisemitic tweets from the “anti-racism” contractor his department hired.
  • Health Canada is expected to announce the approval of the omicron-specific boosters today (though this was for BA.1, even though BA.4 and .5 are dominant).
  • Fourteen months later, the military won’t say what their investigation into alleged atrocities caught on video involving Iraqi police yielded.
  • The CRTC announced that they will adopt 988 as a national suicide prevention hotline number, but it won’t be in operation until November of next year.
  • 325 First Nations are launching a class action lawsuit to demand reparations from the government for the cultural devastation wrought by residential schools.
  • The so-called “Centre Ice Conservatives” changed their name to “Centre Ice Canadians” to appeal to a broader audience (not that it’ll help).
  • Using their majority to circumvent the process, the Ford government bullied through a bill that can force people in hospitals into long-term care facilities.
  • The UCP leadership candidates had their final debate on Tuesday night, and it was as bankrupt of real ideas as you might expect.
  • Althia Raj talks to Elizabeth May about her decision to run for co-leader of the Green Party, and why that’s different from her time as full-on leader.
  • Paul Wells contemplates the “temperamental centre” of Canadian politics, and what that could mean for the two main federal parties going forward.
  • My column takes note of the fact that the government is experimenting in frank discussion when it comes to the wait times issues, which is a good first step.

Odds and ends:

For Xtra, I delved into the new Federal 2SLGBTQI+ Action Plan and got some reaction from stakeholders in the community.

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Roundup: Ford omitting the accountability part

Justin Trudeau met with Doug Ford at Queen’s Park yesterday, and Ford says that they are on the same page about the urgent need for healthcare reform, and that the status quo isn’t working. But what I find interesting is that Ford didn’t go into any details, the prime minister did put out a readout of the meeting later in the evening, and yes, healthcare was mentioned, but in a somewhat different context than what Ford told reporters after the meeting”

“They also spoke about pressures on the healthcare system and the importance of funding and accountability to deliver for Canadians. The prime minister emphasised that the Government of Canada is committed to continue working with provinces and territories to support public health systems that deliver quality healthcare for all Canadians.”

The use of accountability stood out for me, because this is what the federal government is pushing—ensuring that any future health transfers go to the healthcare system, and not a tax cut or to pad a province’s surplus like they did with the billions of dollars in pandemic aid that provinces were given. The premiers continue to balk at this, but we’re not all blind and dumb, and we can see them rolling around in money (Alberta and BC both announced higher-than-anticipated surpluses), so them not investing in their own healthcare systems when they obviously have the money to do so is not going to endear them to the federal government as these talks continue.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1564736954234814466

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 188:

The supposed counter-attack around Kherson has seen explosions of ammo dumps and bridges, but it remains difficult to see what is going on there. Russia claims they repelled the attack and caused hundreds of casualties, but they have lied about absolutely everything in this whole invasion thus far, so they are unlikely to be reliable sources. Russian forces elsewhere continued shelling the port of Kykolaiv, as well as Kharkiv in the north. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors will need to cross an active battlefield to reach the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

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Roundup: Salivating over magical LNG terminals

With the visit of German chancellor Olaf Scholz to Canada, there has been no shortage of media salivating at the narrative of Canada somehow sending liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe to displace Russian supply, and they keep going on about it. Power & Politics had an interview with Scholz, and the first third of it was spent with Vassy Kapelos hectoring Scholz about whether he wanted Canadian LNG, and if he told the Quebec government to stop opposing pipelines, and I’m being serious that she actually asked him this, as though he wasn’t going to diplomatically tell her that it wasn’t his place to tell them that (which he did). And while he said sure, Canadian LNG would be great, there is no way that’s going to happen. There is no infrastructure to do so. Building it takes three to five years, and even then, if there is a steady supply (good luck with that, because it’ll drive up costs for product domestically), it’ll take 25 to 30 years to make those investments in that infrastructure pay off, and we’d be well past 2050 then. (I wrote a column on this recently). It would quite literally be investing in a stranded asset. But that won’t stop Canadian media outlets from pounding on this narrative drum, over and over again. You would think that reporters and TV hosts might have done some homework to realize that there is no business case, so you look foolish by pursuing this dead-end line of questioning, but apparently not.

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1562196541451800576

https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/1562198870243028993

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 181:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is vowing of a “powerful response” if Russia attacks the country on its Independence Day, which also will mark six months since the illegal invasion began. And American intelligence is also warning that something may happen, which is why they are urging their nationals leave the country. Russians did conduct air strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region, not far from the nuclear plant, and they have been shelling near Kharkiv in the northeast. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada says that they are investigating 28,000 war crimes, including child deaths.

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Roundup: Hussen nets yet another self-inflicted wound

This government continues its habit of own-goals and an inability to communicate their way out of a wet paper bag, and in this week’s episode, we find Ahmed Hussen not properly addressing the fact that the government apparently didn’t properly vet a supposed “anti-racism training” contractor, and lo, he turned out to have a history of making antisemitic comments over social media. But in his statement, Hussen a) doesn’t name the individual, and b) doesn’t say what “working to rectify the matter” means. Have they terminated the contract? Are they going to report on why due diligence was not done? Is there going to be some kind of accountability to be had for this colossal cock-up? Because from this kind of bland statement, I’m not seeing responsibility, accountability, or a recognition that this wasn’t being taken seriously enough in the first place.

To pour gasoline on this self-inflicted fire is the fact that this just gives ammunition to Pierre Poilievre and other Conservatives, who while consorting with far-right extremists, insist that it’s the Liberals who are the real racists because Justin Trudeau did Blackface. In fact, Poilievre did just that over the weekend. And the Liberals keep giving him the ammunition to do so, because they don’t seem to have enough adult supervision in what they’re doing. This is a problem that they can’t seem to get a handle on, seven years later. I’m not saying any of the other parties will be any better, but wow. It’s not really an encouraging sign about government capacity in this country.

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1561126969097555969

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 179:

More Ukrainian drones have been in the airspace over Russian-occupied Crimea, which some analysts stay is showing the weakness of Russia’s position there. Ukraine also made airstrikes over the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia forces have been shelling the southern city of Voznesensk, while intensifying combat around Bakhmut in the country’s east. In related news, a suspected car bomb killed the daughter of one of Putin’s closest advisors, but nobody has claimed responsibility, though this will likely ratchet up tensions in the conflict.

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Roundup: Mystified about our “clean” gas

There has been a pervasive talking point of late, which asserts that Canadian oil and gas is “cleaner” than elsewhere—somehow—and that should be justification enough for us to increase production. There is also a pervasive myth that emission have come down in the oil sands, which is blatantly untrue—in some projects emissions intensity has decreased, meaning there are fewer emission per barrel produced, except that they increased the number of barrels produced, so emissions haven’t actually gone down. And yet Conservatives in particular pat themselves on the back about this, and keep repeating how “clean” our energy products are (when they aren’t making the risible “ethical oil” canard). So imagine my surprise when Toronto Star columnist Heather Scoffield uncritically repeated this assertion that Canadian natural gas is “cleaner” than other countries’ product, which is news to me. I grew up in Alberta—I have seen the literal mountains of sulphur that has been removed from the extracted hydrocarbons. Alberta is replete with sour gas wells, which are dangerous, and I’ve also seen the evacuation plans for areas if such a sour gas well blows. I’m not sure how this is “clean” gas. So, I reached out to an expert about the assertion. He’s mystified too. Perhaps our national columnists shouldn’t just take Conservative and industry talking points at face value.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 177:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Lviv, and they discussed the fighting around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and the deal around grain shipments. Meanwhile, Russians struck at Kharkiv again, while more explosions were reported at a Russian military airport in Russian-occupied Crimea, with reports that Russian air forces fired at targets near the city of Kerch in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1560022545356791810

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Roundup: Ford proposing more pay cuts targeted at women

In case you were wondering how seriously the Ford government is taking contract negotiations with education workers, the answer is somewhere between “not seriously at all,” and “outright contemptuous.” They are proposing a two percent wage increase for education workers making under $40,000 and 1.25 percent for everyone else, which is an effective pay cut. It’s a pay cut when inflation is running around two percent, but when inflation is at eight percent, it’s a big pay cut. And while there is economic merit to not patching pay increases directly to inflation in times when it’s running high, lest you risk a wage spiral that keeps inflation high for longer, 1.25 and two percent are not only unrealistic, it’s insulting. And when you factor in the fact that most education workers are women, it adds a particularly sexist dimension to this effective pay cut, just as it was when they capped nurses’ salaries at one percent increases (which, again, is an effective cut when inflation is running normally around two percent). Doug Ford and his merry band of incompetent murderclowns have repeatedly shown that they don’t value the labour of women, and this latest offer just drives that home.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 174:

Russians continue shelling both Kharkiv, as well as towns and villages in the Donetsk region, though Ukrainian forces say that they have repelled more than a dozen attacks in the east and north of the country, including within the Donbas region (which Donetsk is part of). Shelling did continue in the area of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, while the International Atomic Energy Agency tries to have the plant declared a demilitarized zone (but good luck getting Russia to live up to its agreements).

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