Roundup: Huffing those culture war fumes

My absolute exasperation with the need to constantly import American culture war bullshit into Canadian politics continues to grow, as we see yet another example playing out in the House of Commons. This time, it’s opposition whip Kerry-Lynne Findlay using the far-right gotcha of “What is the definition of a woman,” in the hopes that the response is some kind of confused mess in order to include trans women in the definition of women.

This being said, I’m not surprised that it was Findlay, because she has a growing record of doing things like this, most especially when she was tweeting her concern about how Chrystia Freeland once interviewed George Soros when she was a journalist. Findlay was greatly alarmed by what she saw, and in case you’ve been living under a rock, the attacks on Soros are largely rooted in antisemitic tropes that date back to the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Findlay has repeatedly shown that she hasn’t learned her lesson from that incident, and this latest one is more proof of that.

The panic over trans people continues to infiltrate the discourse in Canada. The Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a thinktank that initially billed itself as a centrist endeavour in the mode of the two pivotal prime ministers who helped build and shape the country as we know it, has increasingly been pulling further and further to the right, and adopting anti-trans rhetoric as part of their offerings, which is a little alarming (and people who are associated with the Institute should start distancing themselves the more this kind of bullshit takes hold). This is also in the context that CSIS is seeing threats coming from the “anti-gender” movement, and for a group like MLI to pander to those sentiments is irresponsible, and dangerous.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched one of its biggest air strikes against Ukrainian thermal power generation stations in weeks, causing blackouts throughout the country. A separate air attack hit a school stadium in Kharkiv. It was Victory Day in Russia, celebrating their victory in WWII, and it should be noted that they did not take Chasiv Yar like they were hoping to beforehand.

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Roundup: Brian Mulroney passes away

News came down last evening that former prime minister Brian Mulroney had passed away after some health challenges.

The Star has a pretty good obituary here, as well as some of the reactions to his passing, and the CBC has a series of photos over the course of his life.

https://twitter.com/yfblanchet/status/1763346642294411713

Bloc MP Louis Plamondon, who was first elected as a PC MP in 1984 along with Mulroney, reflects on Mulroney.

In reaction, Susan Delacourt notes that it’s hard to imagine a Canada without the larger-than-life Mulroney given his lasting legacy, and also reflects on the political lessons that she learned in covering him during his time in office. Ian Brodie praises Mulroney for his strategic sense in global affairs at a time of great upheaval.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces are pushing hard against the front lines in the east and southeastern parts of Ukraine, which Ukraine has repelled, and they do keep shooting down Russian warplanes, downing another three on Thursday alone. Ukraine is using more domestically-manufactured military equipment, as they strive to move more toward self-sufficiency and away from faltering Western aid.

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Roundup: The Winnipeg Lab documents revealed at last

We finally got a look at the Winnipeg Lab documents yesterday, and the reason why those two research scientists were fired, and it’s certainly far more innocuous than the lurid tales that certain Conservative MPs have been telling over the years. The short version is that the scientists in question, likely out of sheer naïveté and belief in the goodness of science, were far too trusting of Chinese counterparts, and didn’t like to follow rules and protocols when they didn’t feel like it, and eventually, lied to CSIS security screeners about their activities. This doesn’t appear to be some kind of major espionage, but a pair of scientists were entirely too precious, and were used to having their own way, and became security risks as a result, hence their termination.

It shouldn’t have taken this long to see the documents, but this was a whole dog-and-pony show for the Conservatives, who demanded—bizarrely­—that the Commons’ law clerk do the redactions for the documents rather than trained public servants, never mind that the clerk has no national security training and doesn’t know what to look for in terms of potential security issues. Even though the government turned the documents over to NSICOP in an unredacted form, the Conservatives went and boycotted the committee for theatrical reasons alone, and eventually, the government came up with an ad hoc process that involved MPs from all parties and retired judges to go through the documents, and it took years longer than it should have if they just let NSICOP do its work in the first place. There was no reason for them to object and to do this song and dance, and make false accusations about what was being hidden, and yet they carried on like this for years for absolutely no reason.

Predictably, Pierre Poilievre is trying to make this an issue about Justin Trudeau “allowing” this potential security breach, except that these scientists did most of their work in the Harper era, and the Public Health Agency of Canada is an arm’s-length agency, which the government cannot micro-manage. Kind of like CBSA. There has been zero contrition from Michael Chong about the fact that he has been spinning outright fictions and conspiracy theories about these documents for the past four years, but he sold out his integrity years ago, so none of this is surprising. And now that these documents have been released, I will point out that reporter Dylan Robertson was getting these stories and had the context of their firing correct when he was reporting on this for the Winnipeg Free Press years ago. That reporting all stands up with the release of these documents, and he deserves major props for it.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians bombed the Kharkiv region, killing four people including a six-year-old girl and a priest. Here’s a look at the new chief of military intelligence for Ukraine, who has hinted that the country’s previous counter-offensive plans wound up in Russian hands before it had begun. Ukraine’s finance minister says they need about $3 billion in foreign aid per month in order to maintain macroeconomic stability through the year.

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Roundup: Trying to escape child care obligations

Some Alberta daycare operators are starting “rolling closures” to protest the new funding regime that goes along with the $10/day early learning and child care programme, saying that they’re not getting enough to make ends meet. This is 100 percent a provincial problem—they signed onto the agreement with the federal government, knowing what the funding agreement was and that they had obligations for provincial funding, and that included increasing the wages of the people who work in the sector (because there’s no excuse for it being so low, particularly as there is a gendered element to it).

So what’s Danielle Smith’s response? Aside from denigrating the operators doing these rolling closures, she is trying to blame the federal government, claiming that their spending caused inflation to rise, which is what is making these operators face problems. Which is, of course, bullshit. Federal spending has nothing to do with the rise in inflation (as the Bank of Canada has stated many times over), and even more to the point, this child care programme has been disinflationary (at least for the early years, before the base-year effect kicks in, meaning it’ll be a one-time drop in inflation). Nevertheless, because she’s blaming the federal government, she wants to shake them down for more money, because that’s what provinces do every single time. Thus far, federal ministers are holding firm and pointing out that provinces knew what they signed onto, but legacy media, of course, is once again trying to make this a federal problem.

And this keeps happening. We never hold provinces of the premiers to account for anything. Another good example is social housing—as former minister Sheila Copps pointed out, back in the eighties, the provinces insisted that the federal government get out of housing because it was provincial jurisdiction, and just give them the money, and they knew best how to spend it. And happens every single time, they spend the federal money on other things, and then blame the federal government once things reach a crisis because of their under-spending. Same with healthcare. Because we are allergic to holding premiers to account in this country, and that’s a very real problem.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia is refusing to turn over any of the purported POW bodies from that downed plane, because it totally isn’t a psy-op. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence says that he expects the Russian offensive on the eastern front to fizzle out by early spring, by which point they should be exhausted. Lviv in western Ukraine has become the first city to remove all of its Soviet-era monuments.

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QP: Memory-holing past indifference

The prime minister was elsewhere, meeting with the president of the Slovak Republic, who is currently on a state visit to Canada, but his deputy was present for a second day in a row (which is a rarity these days). Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and mocked the prime minister saying that all spending has been absolutely necessary, but noted that a large percentage of consultants hired for ArriveCan resulted in no work done, and demanded the money be recovered. Chrystia Freeland said that Canadians understand that when Conservatives talk about spending, they want to cut things like dental care and child care. Poilievre said that the ArriveCan app was an example of “corruption,” and then railed that the Bloc did an “about face” on their support for Bill C-234, and demanded the government pass it in its original form. Freeland insisted that while she can’t speak for the Bloc, the nation of Quebec understands the need to combat climate change. Poilievre switched to English to repeat that number of ArriveCan contracts were not fulfilled and demanded the money be recouped. Freeland insisted that the Conservatives only want to cut services. Poilievre then pivoted to Trudeau’s vacations, and demanded to know if he paid the “full carbon tax” on each ton of emissions. Freeland asked if he knows how much the heating of Stornoway costs, and that the government was helping people with climate rebates. Poilievre insisted that he pays for his own vacations, and demanded that the government undo the amendments to Bill C-234 and pass it. Freeland pointed out that Poielivre also doesn’t pay rent on Stornoway, and that he wants to take away the climate rebates people rely on.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and decried Quebec’s settlement capacity for immigrants and refugees, and railed that this was impacting housing. Sean Fraser praised the agreement that they came to with Quebec to build more houses. Therrien railed that immigration levels were still going up, and demanded the targets be lowered. Marc Miller pointed out that they already have an agreement with Quebec to manage its immigration levels.

Jagmeet Singh blamed the Liberals for the housing crisis in Toronto, and demanded they capitulate to Olivia Chow’s blackmail. Freeland praised Toronto, and said they were having “constructive conversations” with the city and the provinces, and that they have given more than any previous government. Singh switched to French to decry that the government has called for another investigation into grocery chains rather than taking action. François-Philippe Champagne said that the best solution is for more competition, and that he has asked the Commissioner to use his new powers for this.

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QP: Watch out, the kids are back

The prime minister had not planned to be in the Chamber today, and yet there he was, present for the moment of silence on the Day to Combat Islamophobia, and then stuck around for the Leaders’ Round. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, raised the prime minister’s vacation, and then blamed him for rising rents in Montreal. Trudeau stood up and gave a statement about the Day to Combat Islamophobia in French. Poilievre again blamed the prime minister for students living in shelters and demanded he end inflation and let developers ensure affordable housing. Trudeau noted that the was merely launching personal attacks, and that he voted against actions to help accelerate housing. Poilievre switched to English, and returned to the issue of Trudeau’s vacation, and wanted to know if he paid the “full carbon tax” on the flights he took. Trudeau read that Poilievre has no plan for climate change, while climate change causes droughts, which causes droughts, which rises food prices, and Poilievre has no plan for that. Poilievre called Trudeau a “high-carbon hypocrite,” and Trudeau called out individual Conservatives for voting against things they previously believed in. Poilievre then accused Trudeau of “muzzling” backbencher Ken McDonald and demanded he put his leadership up for review. Trudeau recited how they are working with mayors to build housing, before calling out Leslyn Lewis’ lunch with Christine Anderson.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he returned to his private little conspiracy theory about the Century Initiative around immigration levels. Trudeau pointed to the need for immigrants, and that the levels are stabilising. Blanchet then demanded better distribution of asylum seekers, and Trudeau insisted that hey were working with provinces. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he railed about homelessness but it was hard to hear him over Conservative roaring. Trudeau read a script about using every tool they have to ensure housing affordability, such as their announcement that morning. Singh switched to French to decry renovictions, which is a provincial issue. Trudeau read some boilerplate language.

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Roundup: Chow chooses blackmail

Toronto mayor Olivia Chow woke up and chose violence, as the kids say, when it comes to her budget proposals for Toronto. While the 10.5 percent property tax increase is long-overdue for a city whose property taxes remain well below the national average after years of austerity governments who have allowed the city to crumble so they can keep from increasing said property taxes (and this is not unique to Toronto either), she is also calling for an additional measure—federal blackmail. The proposal is called a “federal impacts levy,” or an additional six percent increase ostensibly to cover the costs of providing services for asylum seekers, and is basically holding the federal government at knifepoint, saying pay up or all your safe seats in this city are going to be in jeopardy.

The asylum seeker issue is rife with other levels of government falsely claiming that this is solely a federal responsibility, so they should foot the whole cost. It’s not actually true—the federal government is responsible for refugees once their claims have been approved, but before that point, they generally fall under the social services provided by provinces and municipalities, and the federal government will reimburse a portion of those costs. Of course, premiers like to wash their hands of this because of course they do (and there is a constant rhetorical battle happening in Question Period where the Bloc keep demanding that the federal government owes Quebec some $450 million for the provision of services, again falsely claiming sole federal responsibility), which leaves cities often bearing the burden, and Toronto and Montreal most especially as they get the lion’s share of asylum claimants. There remain questions around Toronto, if they have followed the proper channels to request federal funds for this (I believe there is a need for a certain provincial action to accompany it which may not have been undertaken), but again, they have been given millions of dollars this year for assistance with this.

My bigger concern is the Pandora’s Box that this kind of federal blackmail opens up. While some pundits will declare it to be genius, and on a strategic level, it is a clever way to back the federal government into a corner, but at the same time, this invites other cities or provinces to start adopting this kind of tactic, and even more to the point, it once again leaves the province—whose constitutional responsibility the city is—off the hook for their own underfunding and downloading of services to try and make their own bottom lines look good. We already have provinces who think they can just declare themselves exempt from federal laws, and others who are openly breaking those laws (or at least threatening to under the cover of legal fictions), while the pundit class says it’s the prime minister’s fault, that he made them break the law and behave this way. Chow is now pushing this envelope even further, and I worry about the long-term consequences for this country so that she can solve her short-term problem of being an adult around her city’s fiscal crisis.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Two Russian missiles struck a hotel in Kharkiv, injuring eleven people, many of them journalists. Ukrainian forces have been shifting toward building fortifications and a more defensive posture in recent months. Speaking in Vilnius, Lithuania, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have shown that Russia can be stopped, but that Ukraine still needs more air defence systems and ammunition. Zelenskyy added that there are “clear signs” of a slowdown in Russia’s defence industry as he called on allied nations to tighten sanctions.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1745019147065721141

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1745348642100109636

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Roundup: Graphing some drivers of inflation

Just how much are the price of raw materials contributing to headline inflation? Well, the raw materials price index was released yesterday, and economist Stephen Gordon was curious, so he made some graphs.

Things I noticed: While gasoline is a big driver of headline inflation, the prices of wheat and beef are worth taking a look at because of the price spikes. What caused those spikes? Drought. Drought killed 40 percent of the wheat crop in 2021, and also meant a shortage of feed crop for livestock, which meant that ranchers had to cull herds to be able to afford to feed the remaining animals (because importing feed is expensive). This year we also saw more drought, which is having the same effect (and that drought has been persistent in southern Saskatchewan, which has to be in danger of turning into a dustbowl soon). And yes, there is a direct correlation to these more frequent droughts with climate change.

Also worth pointing out is the price of chicken also spiking, which was because of avian flu that meant culling flocks to prevent transmission. Again, that drives up prices. This is just more data to show that it’s not the carbon price driving up food prices—it’s climate change and its knock-on effects.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s largest private energy company says that they need more missile defences to protect power plants in advance of more Russian attacks over the winter. Ukrainian forces have confirmed that they have established several beachheads on the eastern banks of the Dnipro river, which is an important step in the counter-offensive. In Kharkiv region, the government is now building fortified underground schools because of the constant attacks. A Yale study says that more than 2400 Ukrainian children from four occupied regions have been taken to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725490287160529137

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Roundup: “Credible allegations” of an assassination on Canadian soil

It was an unexpected moment after Question Period, when Justin Trudeau returned to the House of Commons, and took advantage of the Statements by Ministers slot in Routine Proceedings to speak on an issue of “national security,” and revealed that credible intelligence from Canadian agencies has found that an agent of the Indian government was likely responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader in British Columbia several months ago. Other opposition leaders expressed their shock, and support for the government in this—being unusually less dickish than usual (until they denied Elizabeth May her own opportunity to speak—the dickishness resumed at that point). It also sounds like the timing of this announcement was earlier than anticipated—the Globe and Mail got a leak and went to confirm it with the government, and were asked if they could hold off publishing for a week, and the Globe said they had 24 hours, so Trudeau was forced to do this now, and not after he returned from the UN General Assembly.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703856088238416330

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703879668842016904

Shortly thereafter, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc scrummed in the Foyer and said that a high-ranking Indian diplomat was expelled from the country, and it sounds like the government is considering further measures in the near future. It also sounds like this was being discussed at the G20 meeting in India last week, as both the head of CSIS and Trudeau’s National Security Advisor were on the trip, and suddenly the frostiness with Narendra Modi and the cancelled trade mission make so much more sense, being as this was being pursued in back channels during the summit, not only with Indian officials but also with allied countries including the US and the UK.

For background, here is what we know about the victim, and the timeline of events surrounding the murder. India, predictably, refutes this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

There have been Russian attacks on both Lviv in the west and Kherson in the south. Ukrainian forces say they breached Russian lines near Bakhmut in the east, and have reclaimed two more villages. Six deputy defence ministers were fired, possibly in relation to a corruption scandal.

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Roundup: Open Letters to Tiff Macklem

BC premier David Eby decided he needed to be extra performative yesterday, and wrote an open letter to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, urging him not to raise interest rates next month because of the “human cost” of these interest rate hikes—ignoring of course the counterfactual of the effects of unchecked high inflation and the “human cost” that it has over the short and medium term.

What is pretty galling in all of this is that Eby knows better. He was once a pretty good civil liberties lawyer, and he fully knows that the Bank is independent, and that they have a legal mandate that they need to fulfil when it comes to keeping inflation at two percent, and that their main policy tool is the blunt instrument of interest rates. His “I know the Bank is independent but…” spiel was frankly embarrassing, and should not have merited the attention it got from the media, but here we are.

Speaking of, Power & Politics was not only true to form in giving him a soapbox to make his point, and rather than doing their jobs of pointing to the irresponsibility of this kind of move, particularly at a time when you also have Pierre Poilievre warning that he’s going to fire the Governor (with what power?) and threatening the Bank’s independence. It would be great if CBC could do a single economics story properly and not just treat it like an issue to be both-sidesed, but they apparently have zero willingness to do so, and the fact that this Eby interview was that ignorant is a sign that they cannot be bothered to care about economics stories for anything than just trying to plug them into their established narratives, and it’s doing the country an extreme disservice.

Programming Note: I’m taking the full long weekend off, so I’ll see you early next week.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces have reported some success in the south and east, but I am also tickled by their latest video offering, telling all of those armchair generals to basically shut up because they’ve been doing the heavy lifting on their own. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine has developed its own long-range weapons that can strike 700 kilometres away, which may have been a sly nod to the attack on Russian airbases that destroyed a number of fighters. The mayor of Kyiv wants to build more fortifications, because there always remains the threat from Russia.

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