Roundup: A “pause” on carbon prices that hands Poilievre a victory

Prime minister Justin Trudeau announced yesterday afternoon that the federal government would be implementing a “pause” for three years on the carbon price on home heating oil, predominantly used in Atlantic Canada, because he’s in some serious electoral trouble in the region. He also said that enriched carbon price rebates for rural dwellers would be on the way, as well as more incentives for people to switch to heat pumps. The problem? This undermines the whole carbon price scheme, ensures that it no longer is in compliance with the rules that they established, and it hands a propaganda victory to the Conservatives who are crowing that this “proves” that the price is making life unaffordable, and that they’ll kill it outright.

This also handed ammunition to Danielle Smith and Scott Moe, who will now be demanding that natural gas for heating be exempted, because now the programme is explicitly unfair. They’re not wrong, even if they’re acting entirely in bad faith over it. The NDP have joined in, also insisting that all home heating should be exempt from the price, which further undermines it. And you’d better believe that there are problems around the implementation of the heat pump programme, particularly how it rolls out to low-income households who need it the most.

The most galling thing of all, however, is that this is a victory for Irving Oil (and enabled by the provincial price regulators). They deceptively increased prices on their home heating oil and said this was for the “clean fuel standard,” which is bullshit. That standard is not a price—it’s an emissions standard that comes into place gradually, and any increased costs would be what the refineries need to do to meet those standards. This, however, wasn’t well communicated by the government, and of course the narrative got swallowed by the Conservatives calling it “Carbon Tax 2” and a poorly done report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer who framed this like it was a price, and so Irving was able to act in the way it did. And because it’s Irving, and they are more powerful than any of the provincial governments in Atlantic Canada (which is an enormous problem in a democracy), nobody challenged them on this deceptive price increase, and they successfully jammed the federal government into undermining the carbon price, so now it can be picked away at until it’s well and truly dead. Well done, everyone. You’ve just screwed yourselves, your credibility, and ultimately the planet. Slow clap.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Wednesday’s drone attack near the nuclear power plant in Khmelnitskyi region was likely targeted. Ukrainian officials say the Black Sea corridor is working, particularly now that they’ve chased away the Russian Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea. Ukrainian businesses are preparing for the possibility of another winter of attacks on the power grid.

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QP: The worst kind of reading of scripts

The prime minister and all other leaders were present today, and if anything, it promised to be a sour note all around. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he cited a “devastating” report about food bank use, blaming carbon prices. Justin Trudeau took the opportunity to mark the passing for Senator Ian Shugart, the former Clerk of the Privy Council. Poilievre said that Shuguart was his deputy minister and was a great public servant. He then returned to French to quote from the same report on food bank use. Trudeau cited the assistance they have delivered to Canadians, such as the Canada Child Benefit, child care and dental care, while the Conservatives would only those supports. Poilievre switched to English to reiterate his first question about the carbon price. Trudeau praised his government’s record in reducing poverty and reiterated the threat that the Conservatives would only cut supports. Poilievre cited a Nova Scotia quoted in the report and again blamed the carbon price, and Trudeau noted that Poilievre was part of a government that raised the age of retirement, and that it was about time he finally defended the CPP. Poilievre again quoted from the report on housing pressures and demanded more homes. Trudeau said that Poilievre has put forward no plan on housing and he lacks credibility on the file, while the housing minster was currently in BC signing new agreements. 

Yves-François Blanchet led off for the Bloc, and wanted the prime minster to acknowledge that Quebec would be financially viable on their own. Trudeau dismissed this as trying to reopen old fights that have long been settled, and listed off investments the federal government has made in the province. Blanchet again tried to get Trudeau to “admit” the province’s fiscal viability, and Trudeau again talked around the issue about growing the economy in the province together. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and blamed food prices on greedy CEOs, and Trudeau listed more programmes they have rolled out to help Canadians. Singh repeated the question in French, to which Trudeau listed off those programmes en français. 

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Roundup: Bad behaviour on committees for clips

The Commons Access to Information, Ethics and Privacy committee released their report on foreign interference yesterday, and much of it was marked by recommendations to do things like finally implement a foreign agent registry (which the government is working on and has been undertaking consultations), and to fix issues that were the subject of leaks from national security agencies. The Conservatives, however, were not on board with the recommendation for web giants like Google and Meta to be held accountable for the spread of disinformation on their platforms, much in the way that the European Union has been doing. The Conservatives claim they are concerned about free speech and journalistic independence, but I have my doubts about that, because cynically, I suspect it’s in their self-interest to be able to continue spreading their own disinformation over these platforms and they don’t want to be accountable for that. Predictably, the Conservatives also used their dissenting report to demand forensic audits of the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation, even though there is no avenue for the government do really do this as it’s an independent non-profit corporation, and the initial endowment from the government is not at issue in all of the various conspiracy theories that the Conservative shave been pursing.

As for their concern about journalistic independence, they told on themselves some more as their fight to try and haul CBC management to answer questions on their coverage of Hamas and the use of the word “terrorist” took over the Heritage committee with a heated exchange, and Conservative MP Rachael Thomas vowing to make it “hell” for the chair if she didn’t get her own way. Peter Julian kept trying to tell her that the president of CBC, Catherine Tait, is already scheduled to appear next week on other matters, but Thomas kept up this dog and pony show so that she could get clips of her being “shut down” by the committee. But seriously, it is not up to Parliament to make demands of CBC’s coverage, and for the party to claim they respect journalistic independence while pursuing this vendetta just shows how much they are invested in their bullshit, and how willing they are to erode democratic norms (like the independence of the public broadcaster) in order to score a few points.

This use of committees as clip-gathering for social media was also on full display at Status of Women, as MP Michelle Ferreri staged another such stunt, by demanding a study on violence against women on transit as an “emergency,” while Liberal MP Anita Vandenbeld objected because the study she had been trying to launch for months now on the mental health of women refugees who faced sexual violence would be pushed back yet again. Ferreri claimed that she wasn’t doing this for clips—and then put out a shitpost attacking Vandenbeld. It’s shameful that committees are being used like this.

 

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces continue to pound Avdiivka in the east, while Ukrainians say their defensive line is holding. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they will continue to put their own pressure on Russian-occupied Crimea, and that increasing strikes have force the Russians to pull out their fleet as they are no longer to safely operate it from there. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s justice minister says he’s willing to go after the country’s oligarchs for embezzlement, fraud, and money laundering.

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Roundup: Openly pursuing creeping illiberalism

You may have heard mention of a lavish trip that Conservative MPs took to London courtesy of a Hungarian think tank, but as you might expect from Canadian legacy media, the focus remains on the costs of the trip, and the stupid little partisan games in trying to get the ethics committee to look into it. What isn’t being mentioned is the fact that the think tank, the Danube Institute, is closely tied to the Orbán regime, and that is a worrying problem because of what it signals about right-wing parties in North America cosying up to Orbán.

Why this matters is because Orbán is undermining the rule of law and public institutions in Hungary, and is praising greater illiberalism. By cosying up to Orbán while has-beens like Stephen Harper try to sanitise his image through his IDU social club is because it creates a permission structure for right-wing parties like the Conservatives to start normalising the same illiberalism, pretending that this is all standard stuff for small-c conservative parties these days. The “don’t say gay” legislation in the US all came from Orbán’s playbook, and that is crossing over into Canada as well, with Conservatives openly winking and nodding to it, while you have conservative premiers invoking the notwithstanding clause to take away the rights of gender-diverse youth. This is the canary in the coal mine.

On the subject of creeping illiberalism, Conservatives (and MP Rachael Harder in particular) tried to get the public accounts committee to haul the CBC executives before them to “explain” why they don’t use the term “terrorist” when referring to Hamas, never mind that this is a practice shared by other news organisations like the BBC and The Associated Press. This kind of attempted intimidation is absolutely out of order, and represents political interference in the public broadcaster, which would be bad enough it Harder wasn’t the one always screaming about so-called “government censorship” with the Online Streaming Act and the Online News Act, as though that were a credible problem. It’s not, but it also seems to be both projection and an admission, that they want to control the news and programming, while accusing the Liberals of doing so (even though they absolutely are not). This is extremely dangerous for our democracy, and we should absolutely beware what they are trying to get away with.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While the attacks on Avdiivka continue, Russians struck an apartment building in Zaporizhzhia and killed two people. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for an attack on two Russian airfield in occupied areas using longer-range ballistic missiles quietly provided by the Americans, which is an unusual admission for them, but also signals that they can now hit Russian supply lines in more protected areas.

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Roundup: The “red line” of pharmacare

It was the big NDP biennial policy convention this weekend, and amongst litany of policy resolutions that the party was in violent agreement with (waaaaaaay more in lockstep with one another than either the Liberals or Conservatives tend to be at their own policy conventions), the one that everyone kept talking about was the emergency resolution that delegates unanimously adopted was to make pharmacare a red line with their deal with the Liberals. The problem, of course, is that the real problem for the government is that they need nine more premiers to sign onto pharmacare if they want it to actually happen, and the NDP seem oblivious to this fact, and think that they can create an opt-in system which a) won’t work without provincial buy-in from the start, and b) wouldn’t achieve the necessary savings unless every province has actually signed on so that you get the proper economy of scale happening. (All of this is laid out in the column I wrote a week ago). So while it’s all well and good to posture over this “red line” and threaten to go to an election over it, I still have yet to see Jagmeet Singh publicly harangue David Eby about signing onto the programme, like he refused to do with John Horgan before Eby, particularly when Horgan was being obstructionist on healthcare reforms.

Meanwhile, Singh used his speech at the convention to acknowledge the restlessness of the base and to talk about how difficult it is to work with the Liberals, which is kind of funny because the “difficulty” is mostly just pushing on an open door and complaining that things aren’t happening fast enough, because the NDP seem to have little idea about process, or the finite capacity that exists in government to get everything they want done in an unrealistic timeline, like with dental care. They’ve done absolutely none of the heavy lifting, so I find it somewhat risible that they’re complaining about how hard it is.

In her analysis of said convention, Althia Raj hears five reasons from NDP grassroots members as to why they’re sticking with Singh in spite of his disappointing electoral results. Raj also notes the fairly low score that Singh got in the leadership review votes, and has her thoughts on his speech to the membership.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian drone attacks killed six people in attacks on Kherson and the surrounding region, as Russians forces have started pushing forward at the front lines once again. Part of that drive continues to be at Avdiivka, where they pounded it for a fifth straight day, killing two more civilians.

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Roundup: More apologies for past honours

In the wake of the black eye that Canada collectively received after former Speaker Anthony Rota’s embarrassing blunder in recognising the Nazi-aligned veteran in the House of Commons, there has been some more soul-searching institutions around similar figures that that particular veteran. The University of Alberta returned a donation from said veteran to be used for their Ukrainian Studies programme, but more problematic for the institution was their former chancellor, Peter Savaryn, who was in the same Waffen-SS Galacia Division unit, and now Rideau Hall has apologised because Savaryn had also been granted the Order of Canada back in 1987, citing limited information sources at the time.

This has led Jewish groups in particular to call for the government to open up the archives related to the Deschene Commission, which looked at potential war criminals who resettled in Canada after the war, but a great many of their findings were redacted and kept secret. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says that senior bureaucrats are reviewing the Commission report, and considering making more of it public. But this is also being used as a political wedge. Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman is demanding the government take action on this, but meanwhile, one of her own MPs, Gérard Deltell, was saying in the media that he doesn’t think they need to revisit this history, that the past should remain the past.

But this isn’t necessarily a black-and-white issue, particularly for some Ukrainian communities in this country because they saw those people as nationalists who were using any means necessary to fight the Russians, who had already invaded and subjected them to a genocide—the Holodomor—and one suspects that Cold War considerations meant that it was in our interests to focus on the anti-Soviet aspect of their records during that period. But there are also a number of monuments to those Waffen-SS Galacia Division units across this country, particularly in private Ukrainian cemeteries, because of that complicated history, and it’s something we should have a national conversation and perhaps reckoning about sooner rather than later. But we need to be aware that this is fraught territory, and will be difficult for some.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine has carried out a drone strike on a Russian defence complex over the border in the Belgorod region, which is a rare admission of such an attack. This as Russians are claiming that they shot down a major Ukrainian drone offensive on their border regions. Meanwhile, the IMF says that Ukraine’s economy is expected to keep growing next year.

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QP: Just the number, please

Following his first procession as Speaker, and the usual bout of Members’ Statements, things got underway in earnest. Pierre Poilievre led off, worrying that 63 percent of Canadians are suffering from high grocery prices and demanded to know if the prime minister would bring prices down by Monday as promised—erm, which was not the promise. Justin Trudeau said that they tabled a bill to increase competition, but the Conservatives have been obstructing it, so they need to walk the talk. Poilievre repeated his demand, and have a list of specific demanded price reductions. Trudeau repeated that the Conservatives are playing political games by holding up the bill. Poilievre gave a rare third question in French and declared that they can ram through anything they want with their “coalition” with the NDP, and railed about the carbon price, and repeated again a demand to bring food prices down (which was not the promise). Trudeau listed things that the Conservatives have tried blocking with parliamentary tactics, while the Liberals were working to help Canadians. Poilievre switched to English to complain that the prime minister was blaming everyone but himself before repeating his demand for price reductions by Monday. Trudeau said that this was just a political game as the Conservatives were not working with them to move their bill through before Thanksgiving. Poilievre repeated his itemised list of price reduction demands, and Trudeau repeated for a fifth time that the Conservatives have been delaying and obstructing their bill.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and complained that there are 500,000 non-permanent residents in Quebec and claimed that the province couldn’t provide necessary services, and demanded the government reduce their targets. Trudeau said that immigration is a shared responsibility between the federal government with Quebec, and that they are trying to fill labour market needs while they are working to help the provincial government. Therrien insisted that the federal government was being irresponsible and demanded targets be set according to capacity to integrate them. Trudeau disagreed that this was viable, and said that they would work with provinces and municipalities to build more houses to settle more newcomers.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he praised Wab Kinew’s victory in Manitoba, but his question got drowned out by Conservative uproar, until Fergus brought order. When Singh restarted this time he got drowned out by applause before he demanded the government deal with healthcare needs in that province. Trudeau said he was happy to see Manitobans reject the politics of fear and division before saying that he was looking forward to sign health accord with the new government. Singh hammered about the refusal of the former provincial government’s refusal to search the landfill, and demanded a “Red Dress Alert,” Trudeau read that they released new funds to work on next steps with the landfill search and they were moving forward with the Alert.

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Roundup: It’s Speaker Election Day!

Today is the day for the election of the new House of Commons Speaker, which begins with speeches at 10 AM, a thirty-minute pause so that the candidates can lobby MPs one last time and answer any questions they have, and then they begin voting. It’s a preferential ballot, so we don’t know how long it will take to count (which will depend if someone wins on the first ballot or not), and then they need to go through the protocol with the Senate before the Commons can return to business. Depending on how long this takes, we may or may not have Question Period today, so stay tuned.

In the meantime, here are some of the candidates for the position lamenting the current state of affairs in the Commons, but as I wrote in my weekend column, this is something that the Speaker alone cannot fix. He or she can help, particularly by applying the rules and not simply shrugging off when people break them (like Anthony Rota had a tendency to do), but real reform is going to require the cooperation of all MPs to change the Standing Orders to empower the Speaker to do more, and to give up the power of the party House Leaders to determine speaking lists (because they claim to need to have a “strategy,” which is both ridiculous and undermines the power of MPs). And more to the point, if a Speaker is too tough in enforcing the rules, then MPs may conspire to ensure they don’t win the Speaker election in the next Parliament (which is what happened to Geoff Regan, and why we wound up with the deeply unserious Rota).

This being said, it sounds like Chris d’Entrement may have soured his chances with the Liberals with his ruling last week in not admonishing Melissa Lantsman for her personal attack on Karina Gould during Question Period, and that may mean that Alexandra Mendès could win enough votes provided that enough Liberals rally around her as first choice, ensuring that we finally get our second female Speaker (finally), given that I really don’t think that Greg Fergus or Sean Casey are serious contenders for the job. Then again, ranked ballots are funny things, and sometimes crazy things happen as a result.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces shelled the southern city of Kherson, killing two and wounding ten. In the northern city of Kharkiv, officials are building a fully underground school so that children can learn safely as Russian attack continue. Meanwhile, as shenanigans are taking place in the US Congress around funding for Ukraine, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with EU ministers about continuing vital cooperation.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1708921746907111912

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Roundup: Notes on the Alberta pension proposal

There was a brief return to the discourse over the proposed Alberta Pension Plan over the weekend after a Colby Cosh column managed to get the criticisms of the plan right. So, I’ll let Trevor Tombe to the talking.

As always, try to remember how the CPP actually works:

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine says that they shot down 30 out of 40 drones in an overnight attack on Saturday, and 16 out of 30 dronesovernight on Sunday, when a grain storage warehouse in Uman was hit. In turn, Russia claims to have shot down six Ukrainian drones and two missiles over occupied Crimea on Sunday. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the country will be partnering with western arms manufacturers to start localising production in Ukraine, with a focus on air defence and de-mining.

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Roundup: A cut or not a cut of the defence budget?

Yesterday morning, the CBC had a story about the department of national defence looking to cut $1 billion from its books as part of the government’s ongoing spending review, and people lost their gods damned minds, both in Canada and in some international venues. The story was based on comments that were made at committee by the chief of defence staff and the deputy minister, and they talked about how it was going to be challenging to meet these reductions while worrying about capabilities. This was a bit of a surprise, because Anita Anand had previous said that defence was going to be exempt from her cost-cutting demands, but the comments from General Eyre and the deputy minister sounded like DND volunteered to do their share (which I always treat with suspicion—the previous Auditor General made his own pledge to do his part to make cuts as part of the Deficit Reduction Action Plan™, and lo, wound up delaying badly overdue IT upgrades that his successor needed to beg Parliament for more resources to deal with). And because this is not my first rodeo, I immediately presumed that what this likely means is the accounting game of shifting certain spending into future years or re-profiling some committed dollars that they can’t spend (because they simply don’t have the capacity to spend their current allocation), but a whole lot of people who should know better freaked all the way out.

This came up in Question Period, and Bill Blair was present, but he didn’t really answer the question—he took a swipe at the Conservatives for their record of cutting defence spending to below 1 percent of GDP (indeed, here’s a look back in history of Harper complaining to Peter MacKay that he didn’t cut the military enough) and then read some bland pabulum that didn’t even approach answering the question—because that’s what this government does. It wasn’t until nearly 4 PM that Blair posted a thread to Twitter about how they were still increasing the defence budget, and these $1 billion in savings were internal measures like cutting back on travel and consultants, but noted the spending commitments they’ve made like NORAD modernisation, and ships and planes, and so on.

It absolutely mystifies me as to how this message-obsessed government took almost eight hours to craft a response to this news story that when they could have shut down the hysterical reaction to it in mere minutes had they simply sent out a similar tweet first thing in the morning. There is nothing in there to demonstrate why it took eight hours. They could also have had Blair give a reasonable response during QP that would have simply said “This reporting is exaggerated, we are looking for some efficiencies, but overall defence spending is still increasing,” and it would have defused everything. But they didn’t, either because they’re inept, or it takes them that many hours to get sign-off from Katie Telford’s office, which is a sad sign about where this government is at. But nearly eight hours for this kind of response to the story is unacceptable, and it’s a real-time demonstration in why things need to change at the top with this government.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The first American Abrams tanks are being delivered in the eastern front, in the hopes they will make a difference. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the 82nd anniversary of the Babyn Yar massacre by Nazi forces.

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