Roundup: Supply cycle reaches its peak

We’re now in day one-hundred-and-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has nearly seized the entirely of Luhansk, one of the two main Donbas regions. Thus far, Russia has turned over 210 bodies from fighters in the steel plant in Mariupol, exchanging them for Russian bodies.

Here is the tale of a fifteen-year-old Ukrainian boy who helped destroy an advancing Russian column by using a drone and alerting the Ukrainian forces of where to aim their artillery. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been trying to get its grain to markets by other means than by ship, but it is being beset by logistical problems, as their silos are full and a new planting season is already underway. Even if they could get their ships out of port, it will take at least a month or two to de-mine the corridors these ships travel.

https://twitter.com/UKRinCAN/status/1534287413304037376

Closer to home, it was the final day of the Supply cycle yesterday, meaning that the Conservatives got their last Supply Day, and then the House passed the Supplementary Estimates, which ensures that departments have money to function, and that it’s more aligned with the budget, because we have a mis-match between the budget cycle and the Estimates cycle that has grown over the past few decades, and when Scott Brison tried to align them when he was at Treasury Board, not only did the civil service resist, but the opposition accused him of trying to create a “slush fund” when he was trying to allocate funds to better align the Estimates and budget, and certain proposed programmes didn’t have their submissions delivered in time. Suffice to say, Brison tried, and when he failed, the government seems to have given up on fixing this very obvious problem that goes to the heart of why Parliament exists in the first place. Suffice to say, now that the Estimates are passed, the House of Commons could theoretically rise at any point. They likely will wait until at least the end of this week so that they can get the budget implementation bill passed, as well as Bill C-5 on mandatory minimums, but considering the filibusters or other dilatory motions going on around the broadcasting bill, the official languages bill, and the gun control bill, I would not be surprised if the House Leader decides to just go home a few days early and let everyone cool down over the summer.

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QP: Missing the point on inflation

While the prime minister was off to NORAD headquarters and then the Summit of the Americas, we had most of the other leaders in the Commons today. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, complaining that the prime minister wouldn’t deal with airport line-ups and be photographed with his mask off in other countries, and railed somewhat incoherently about pandemic theatre. Adam van Koeverden first noted the importance of the prime minister’s international travel, before saying that people are confused by the mixed messages from the Conservatives on public health measures and vaccinations. Bergen then pivoted to rising cost of living, and demanded support for their Supply Day motion on cutting GST and carbon prices. Chrystia Freeland listed off affordability measures and that benefits are indexed to inflation. Bergen got indignant and railed that these cheques weren’t worth anything, and that the prime minster was out of touch. Freeland slowly repeated back Bergen’s assertion, noting that she lives in a government accommodation, and how much these cheques were worth to people. Luc Berthold took over in French to demand support their motion, and Freeland decided to quote the Parliamentary Budget Officer back to Conservatives, and what he said about the drivers of inflation. Berthold also gave his own performance of indignation, and Freeland calmly read her script about affordability measures.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the delays at passport offices, to which Karina Gould deployed her usual lines about adding resources and some offices being open on Saturdays to meet delays. Therrien repeated his demands for faster processing on weekends without additional charges, and Gould repeated her assurances.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he stated that one out of every for Canadians are going hungry (erm, not sure about that claim), while grocery giants are raking in profits, insisting they are responsible for one fourth of food inflation (again, not sure about the veracity of that claim) so they should be taxed to help Canadians. Freeland stated that they are insuring that the wealthy pay their fair share, and listed the budget measures on banks, insurance companies and the luxury tax. Singh repeated his dubious claims in French, and made the same demand, and Freeland repeated her same points.

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Roundup: Caucus confidence and garbage legislation

It is now day one-hundred-and-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has turned over several of the bodies of Russian fighters from that steel mill in Mariupol where they were holed up for weeks. Missiles continue to fall over other parts of the country, and president Volodymyr Zelensky warns that Russians are targeting the city of Zaporizhzhia in the south, as a means of advancing further into the centre of the country. As well, here is a thread about Russia’s cyberwar in Ukraine, and how they route Ukrainian internet through Russian servers when they take over territory as a means of controlling information.

Meanwhile, a lot of attention has been paid to the confidence vote that UK prime minister Boris Johnson was subjected to within his own party, which he barely survived, and at a much lower margin than other UK prime ministers survived theirs before they made their political exits. With 42 percent of your caucus against you, you cannot survive more than a few more months. It’s simply untenable. Of course, Michael Chong had to pipe up to make yet another pitch for his (garbage) Reform Act and trying to goad the Liberals into signing onto it, which is wrong, and tiresome. Like the Liberals did when Chong first proposed the bill, there was this assertion that this would be what would do in Stephen Harper because his caucus must hate him, erm, except they didn’t. And Chong is making the very same assertion here, which seems to be yet one more Conservative falling into the trap of believing that people hate Trudeau as much as they do. Additionally, as I have stated time and time again, MPs did not need Chong’s garbage legislation to be able to oust leaders—they already had that power if they chose to use it. Putting a legislative framework around those powers only curtails them by stealth, while pretending to “give” MPs powers they already have, it absolutely limited senators’ powers within their caucuses, and it gave leaders even more insulation by putting up thresholds to levels beyond what would ordinarily have been considered fatal to a leader. It doesn’t need to spread further.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1533902493322776576

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QP: A focus on Islamophobia

While the prime minister was in town, meeting with the President of Chile, he did not venture to the Chamber for QP, though his deputy was present. Most of the other leaders were absent as well. Luc Berthold led off, worrying about rising prices, and wondered why the government was doing nothing about it. Chrystia Freeland responded with her prepared talking points about affordability measures like dental care. Berthold was incensed and roared that this was not good enough, especially with food banks under pressure. Freeland assured him that federal benefits like the Canada Child Benefit were indexed to inflation. Berthold was still incredulous, decried people being unable to eat enough, and demanded more from the government. Freeland shrugged off the yelling, stated that she took no lessons from the Conservatives, and noted the poverty reduction since her government had come to power. Dan Albas took over in English decry gasoline prices and demanded a tax break on them, and Jonathan Wilkinson reminded him that world oil prices were being affected by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Albas went on a tangent that cast the prime minister as some kind of scripted actor before repeating his demand, and Wilkinson noted that the country was increasing production and supply, and that the carbon rebates put money back in people’s pockets.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the rise in 911 calls to report gunfire and demanded action from the federal government. Marco Mendicino gave his assurances that he too was worried and they were taking measures to deal with the problem. Therrien demanded a registry of criminal organisations, and Mendicino insisted that the gun control bill does have measures to tackle organised crime.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he marked the anniversary of the Islamophobic attack that killed a family in London, Ontario, and demanded more federal action to combat the problem. Mendicino insisted that they were taking concrete steps, and that needs to start with every member of the Chamber condemning Islamophobia. Singh repeated the question in French, and got assurances in English from Ahmed Hussen, who listed some of the actions the government has taken.

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QP: Missing the mark on the tough-on-crime questions

While the prime minister was off to Calgary to sign a land settlement with a First Nation, and his deputy off to Washington DC, none of the other leaders were in attendance either. Luc Berthold led off, laying out that the prime minister promised to run a transparent government, but raised the CBC story on 72 secret orders-in-council (which are secret for statutory reasons, not because the government simply declared them to be). François-Philippe Champagne noted that there are particular decisions which need to be secret, particularly under the Investment Canada Act and under national security considerations, and while they strive for transparency, there are instances where the national interest requires secrecy. Berthold tried once again on this, and Champagne repeated his response. Berthold then raised the rise in gun crimes and worried that the bill revoking mandatory minimums was making life easier on criminals. David Lametti reminded him that there are many cases where the justice system targets Black and Indigenous people and that serious crimes will still receive serious sentences. Rob Moore took over in English to also decry the same bill and demanded the government abandon the bill. Lametti repeated his response. When Moore tried again, Pam Damoff listed actions the government is taking to tackle gun violence.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and claimed that the National Assembly has a democratic duty to protect secularism in the province, and insinuated that the federal government was trying to overturn democracy in the province. Lametti reminded Therrien that he too is a Quebecker, that Law 21 prevented a teacher from working, and that the federal government has a duty to protect minority rights. Therrien listed areas where the federal government turns down Quebec’s demands, and Pablo Rodriguez stated that while the Bloc is trying to pick fights, the government is trying to move society forward. 

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, he noted a lot of food bank users are disabled, before he denounced the new disability benefits bill. Carla Qualtrough recited that they have worked with the disability community and provinces to lift disabled people out of poverty, which included ensuring that provinces don’t claw back benefits. Bonita Zarillo repeated the same condemnation in English, and Qualtrough reiterated points before calling on the House to get it done.

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Roundup: Doug Ford broke the fact-checker

It’s now approximately day ninety-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces have captured half of the city of Severodonetsk in a “hail of grenades,” while fierce street fighting continues. A rocket strike also hit Sloviansk, also in the Donbas region, which killed three and wounded six. As previously mentioned, the Russian strategy seems to be to try and take the Donbas region as fast as possible, before more heavy western weapons arrive, and lo, it looks like the US will be sending medium-range rockets to Ukraine after a promise that they wouldn’t fire them over the Russian border. Meanwhile, here is a look at Médecins Sans Frontières treating civilians wounded in the fighting near Ukraine’s front lines, and how it’s at a scale they have never faced before.

Closer to home, the Toronto Star’s attempt to fact-check Doug Ford for a week wound up being an exercise in misery, as he “broke” said fact-check system. Now, to be clear, the Star’s whole fact-check exercise between the federal and provincial elections has been fairly risible. It’s not a good system where you take everything the leaders say for a week each, and then evaluate them based on number of falsehoods per time spoken. And because it’s done by someone for whom politics is not their regular beat, they don’t have enough context to know whether what is being said is true or not, and a lot of stuff is being given a pass that shouldn’t be precisely because they don’t know enough of what is going on to have a reasonable bullshit detector throughout. This having been established, Ford still broke their system by barely speaking at all, and when he does, it’s largely in generalities that can’t be easily checked, and it makes it easy for him to get caught up in exaggerations that also wind up getting a pass. Still, he did still lie a lot, particularly about the situation he inherited, but the fact-check system is pretty useless, so why bother?

Nevertheless, this is now the second election where Ford has largely been a blank slate, with little in the way of policy other than his previous move of rebating licence plate stickers, and his promise to expand a highway as though it will do anything about congestion (which it won’t because induced demand). There is no contest of ideas because it’s content-free, and nobody wants to call this fact out even though it is utterly corroding our democracy. But it seems to be a strategy that works for him, and which the media in this province seems to be fine with, because they have given him the easiest ride humanly possible, and it’s just so dispiriting. How are we a serious province?

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QP: Rota’s return to the big chair

Not only was the prime minister president for QP, as were most other leaders, but Anthony Rota was also back in the Speaker’s chair, for the first time in months. Before things got underway, he took a moment to thank MPs for their support during his absence, and for the care team for his surgery.

After several rounds of applause, things launched with Candice Bergen at her mini-lectern, and she accused the prime minister of trying to end the energy sector by way of the carbon price, insisting that he wants high gas prices. (Erm, Candice, Europe would like a word about gas prices). Justin Trudeau somewhat haltingly listed programmes that are indexed to inflation, and reminded her of what families in Manitoba get in the carbon rebate. Bergen then pivoted to trying to find fault with both the gun control bill and the bill that will remove mandatory minimums on some gun crimes. Trudeau took up a script to praise his own gun control bill, and to recite that removing mandatory minimums is about keeping Black and Indigenous people for; being disproportionately affected by the justice system. Bergen read some scripted outrage about criminals getting house arrest, to which Trudeau read a script about systemic discrimination or people going to jail because they struggle with addiction. Raquel Dancho took over, accusing the government of being responsible for the rise in violent crime, denouncing the removal of mandatory minimums along the way. Trudeau, extemporaneously, listed the new measures in the gun control bill tabled yesterday. Dancho insisted the government wasn’t doing enough to stop gun violence, inadvertently listing things the government was already doing as her counter to “useless” gun bans. Trudeau dismissed this as parroting talking points from the gun lobby, and noted they did invest in the same tools Dancho mentioned.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he complained that the federal government was ready to go to the Supreme Court of Canada over Quebec’s Law 21 and 96, and he wondered if English was really threatened in Quebec. Trudeau took up a script to raise the woman denied a teaching job because she wears a hijab, and it was his job to defend the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Blanchet insisted this was a lie, and that secularism was being attacked, before repeating his question a to whether English was threatened in Quebec. Trudeau, extemporaneously, stated the incorrect truism that French is under threat, and insisted that this was about defending minorities throughout the country.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and in French, he noted that the government agreed to decriminalise small amounts of hard drugs in BC, and wanted support for the private member’s bill on doing this nationally. Trudeau recited a script about the opioid crisis and today’s announcement out of BC. Gord Johns repeated the question in English, and Trudeau read the English version of the same script.

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Roundup: Cynicism around new gun laws

We’re now on or about day ninety-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the fighting has intensified in Sievierodonetsk, which Russia is trying to take before more Western arms arrive in Ukraine’s hands. Meanwhile, here is a slideshow of life in Mariupol now that the Russians have seized the city after laying waste to it.

Elsewhere, Europe has been trying to institute a ban on Russian oil in order to cut off Russia’s finances, but this has only been partially successful. To that end, all imports coming by sea have been banned, but crude by pipeline is still being allowed, which is only about a third of the total volume. Hungary has been a holdout in this, because they want guarantees that their oil supply security will be maintained (and Orban has been something of an ally of Putin, so that doesn’t help matters any).

Closer to home, the government used the opportunity of the most recent school shooting in the US to table their latest gun control legislation, which includes a freeze on handgun sales or transfers in this country rather than an outright ban, as well as a mandatory buy-back programme for assault-style rifles, and a new “red flag” system for licenses. While there isn’t a lot of daylight between the parties on these issues, there is nevertheless some very crass cynicism deep within the Liberal proposal. Matt Gurney lays a lot of it out in this thread (which I won’t reproduce entirely here because it’s long), which is worthwhile considering.

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1531308859649888261

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https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1531385918531182593

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1531387184795852807

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QP: Torquing the Supreme Court’s rulings

While the PM was in town and had a press conference scheduled for shortly after QP, he was absent from the Chamber, as were all other leaders, though the deputy PM was present, for what it’s worth. Luc Berthold led off, and he gave a misleading statement about what the Supreme Court of Canada ruled on Friday, and demanded that the government do something about this. David Lametti said that the fact they are eligible for parole does not mean they will get it, and the parole board will determine if the Quebec City mosque shooter will get it…in 25 years. Berthold then pivoted to affordability, and mischaracterised the effect of the carbon price, ignoring the rebates, to which Chrystia Freeland recited that inflation is global, but that they were taking action such as dental care, a one-time housing benefit and tax credits. Berthold accused the government of lacking compassion, to which Freeland listed measures to help the vulnerable. Dan Albas took over in English to demand price controls on gas, and Freeland listed benefits that are indexed to inflation. Albas railed about prices rising, and Freeland repeated her list of indexed benefits.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he railed that the federal government would challenge Law 21 at the Supreme Court, insisting this was a matter of democracy (ignoring that liberal democracies protect the rights of minorities). David Lametti lamented the pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause, and said the government has concerns about provisions in the law. Therrien accused the government of trying to pick a fight with Quebec, roping Law 96 into the conversion, and Lametti reminded him that he too is a Quebecker and that plenty of people have concerns about this law.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, lamented that the Deschamps report gathered dust and wanted the Arbour report to be implemented. Anita Anand read a script about accepting the Arbour Report, and having a conversation with the prime minster about it, and that they agree with the significant issues identified in it. Lindsay Mathyssen repeated the question in English, and Anand read the English version of the same script.

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Roundup: Deficit is coming in lower than expected

It is on or about day ninety-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces are claiming that they have captured a rail hub in Donestk, while they continue to pound Severodonetsk, with some 90 percent of the city’s buildings damaged. Ukrainians are calling for Western allies to deliver weapons faster, though there is talk that it looks like this aggressive push by Russia has depleted their arsenal.

The invasion is also not accidental in terms of location or timing—the eastern part of the country are a trove of natural gas and critical minerals, and when Russia invaded, it cut off Ukraine’s exploration of natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, which could have been used to help wean Europe off of Russian oil and gas. Because aren’t all wars really about resources?

Closer to home, the Fiscal Monitor was released, and the deficit figure is coming in much lower than anticipated, because in large part the economy is overheated which is generating a lot of revenue (and inflation does help in terms of collecting higher taxes on higher prices). But as Kevin Milligan points out, this means that the obsession by the Conservatives with the deficit is becoming really misplaced—the massive spending in 2020 to get us through the pandemic is behind us, and we’re not in that situation anymore. Not that facts matter—this is really an exercise in people’s feelings about the deficit, and the perceptions that are not grounded in facts.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1530246817589252098

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https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1530248376364593153

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