Roundup: Being too clever about the MOU’s language

Today is the Conservatives’ big Supply Day, where they are bringing forward their motion that cherry-picks two phrases from the MOU with Alberta, and hopes to jam the Liberals with it. Pierre Poilievre may claim that the language is “lifted directly from the MOU,” so the Liberals should put up or shut up, but of course, he’s being too cute by half. It’s not language directly lifted from the MOU. The MOU states a “private sector constructed and financed pipelines, with Indigenous Peoples co-ownership and economic benefit, with at least one million barrels a day of low emission Alberta bitumen with a route that increases export access to Asian markets as a priority” whereas the motion simply says “pipelines enabling the export of at least one million barrels a day of low-emission Alberta bitumen from a strategic deepwater port on the British Columbia coast to reach Asian markets,” and adds “respecting the duty to consult Indigenous people.” One of these things is not like the other.

Kady O'Malley (@kadyo.bsky.social) 2025-12-08T22:44:00.568Z

"low emissions Albertan bitumen"Charlatans always always think other people are stupid.

Emmett Macfarlane 🇨🇦 (@emmettmacfarlane.com) 2025-12-09T00:21:28.775Z

Liberal MP Corey Hogan, the party’s sole Calgary MP, called out these shenanigans, both in a media scrum and on his Twitter, where he points out entirely why the Conservatives haver phrased it this way—to either make the Liberals look like they’re ignoring Indigenous consultation and consent, or to make it look like they’re not serious about building it, and in either case, it sends a signal to someone that will cause doubt and will inevitably delay any decisions. And the government indicated last night that they’re going to vote against it, citing that the Conservatives are not using the full language from the MOU. This in turn will set up weeks of Conservatives screaming that they knew the Liberals were lying the whole time and never had any intention of building a pipeline.

The thing we need to remember in all of this is not the shenanigans, or the Conservatives thinking they’re too clever, or any of that—rather, it’s that they think they can ram through these projects without Indigenous consent. Sure, they’ll talk about “meaningful consultation,” but consultation is not consent, and in their press releases, consent is never mentioned, nor is even consultations. That’s not realistic, nor even legal in the current framework. Of course, they also think a new pipeline will “unblock the trillions of dollars of privatesector energy investment to produce more oil and gas, build profitable pipelines and ship a million barrels of oil to Asia a day at world prices.” My dudes—this is a post-2014 world. It’s not going to be trillions of dollars, and world oil prices are tanking because of a supply glut. All of this is fantasyland.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-12-08T14:08:03.419Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians have attacked Sumy for the second night in a row, cutting off power in the region. Here is a look at those remaining in Kostiantynivka, as Russians approach.

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Roundup: Another weaponized committee appearance

There was drama at the immigration committee yesterday as Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner decided to go after minister Lina Diab for the sake of putting on a show for the cameras, so that she can harvest as many clips from it as she can for social media. Now, I will be the first to say that Diab is not a great minister, and she is unable to answer basic questions on her file during Question Period, and yesterday as no exception. That being said, Rempel Garner was harassing her over things that are outside of Diab’s purview as minister.

In particular, Rempel Garner was going after Diab on foreign nationals who have committed crimes, but who have received lenient sentences so as to avoid removal. Part of this is no doubt part of a campaign of scapegoating of immigrants, along with blaming them for housing shortages, the collapse of the healthcare system, and youth unemployment, which is gross and unbecoming, but we are now in a political era where parties have let the anti-immigration sentiments fester while trying to blame it on the Liberals (and for which Carney has gone along with that scapegoating and alarmingly has adopted Nigel Farage’s language to blame it on Trudeau). But Diab has nothing to do with court sentences, and saying that she was “pro-raper” for pointing out that sentencing decisions are made by courts independent of government crosses a line, and its’ incredibly disappointing in particular because Rempel Garner used to be one of the most progressive members of the Conservative caucus, but has apparently decided to turn herself into one of its most vociferous attack dogs for the sake of ingratiating herself with the leadership after she was initially kept on the outs for her support of Erin O’Toole.

It was also noted by the committee chair that previous witnesses at the committee, who were all civil servants, were subject to harassment after their previous committee appearances because they were used for social media clips, because that’s what committees have devolved to. It’s a denigration of Parliament and it’s making it so that nobody will want to appear at a committee again, which diminishes the role of Parliament, to say nothing of the fact that it is turning MPs into a bunch of performing monkeys for the party’s social media team. MPs need to stop this behaviour before we find ourselves at a point of no return.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-12-04T15:03:21.264Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians attacked power and heating systems for Kherson and Odesa in the south. Drone footage shows the devastated city of Myrnohrad nearly surrounded by Russian forces, even though Putin claims they already control it. Ukraine has attacked and damaged the Asov Sea port of Temryuk, as well as a large chemical plant in Stavropol. Five drones were spotted in the flight path of president Zelenskyy’s aircraft on his approach to Ireland, but his early arrival avoided them.

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QP: Swipes at Marc Miller

The PM was present today, as were the other leaders, and it remained to be seen what Carney would be grilled on. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, where he immediately took aim at Marc Miller being appointed to cabinet, blamed him for “ruining” the immigration system and increasing the cost of living (huh?) and then took aim at comments he’d made about being tired of the decline of the French language, while Poilievre claimed he wanted to defend it. (That would be news to much of Poilievre’s base). Mark Carney stood up to declare that the government has immigration “under control,” and that the number of asylum seekers have dropped by one third, and that they will defend the French language with the greatest investments in the cultural sector. Poilievre needled on Miller’s statement about being tired of the debate over the decline of French, and he wondered why Miller got appointed. Carney said that he was for his new minister and against Poilievre being against their investments in language and culture. Poilievre then switched to English to raise the lack of consultations with First Nations about the “promised” pipeline to the Pacific, and that the Assembly of First Nations condemned his plan, and demanded that Carney make it clear to them that they will build the pipeline and do the “consultations to make it happen” (without actually apparently getting their consent). Carney said that Hansard showed Poilievre wanted to ram a pipeline through while the government would consult to get free, prior and informed consent with First Nations, and work with the province of BC, because they know how to consult and respect. Poilievre took another swipe at Miller, and quoted Miller taking a few shots about the lack of consultations, and wondered why Carney didn’t start consultations eight months ago. Carney said that there needs to be a project and a proponent, and in order to do that, they needed to create the conditions to do so, which they have now done. Poilievre switched to the PBO’s report on housing, declaring it a “broken promise” go get housing built, and that it showed they would only get one percent of their promised houses built. Carney responded with a swipe that as a life-long MP, he’d never built anything, and then pointed out that Poilievre didn’t actually read the report, and listed the housing numbers contained therein. Poilievre hit back that Carney created the housing crisis in the UK after being governor of Bank of England (huh?), and insisted that he wouldn’t fulfil the promised housing, and pointed to the modular partial house that was used for a photo op and then dismantled. Carney pointed out that house was sent to Nunavut, and that it’s a place where people live and not just fly there for a photo op without meeting with the premier.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and worried about BC’s rights around the possible pipeline. Carney insisted that they will work with the province and that everything will be done in cooperation. Blanchet argued that provinces need to be respected, and decried this particular “contract.” Carney insisted that this wasn’t a contract, but a memorandum of understanding that lays out a pathway in conjunction with the province and First Nations. Blanchet insisted that it was a contract, and worried about the tanker ban, and that all parties should sign it with free, prior and informed consent. Carney again insisted that it was an MOU that obligates Alberta to make environmental investments.

Carney then got up and left, to much Conservative consternation and chanting, and the Speaker had to deliver another warning.

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Roundup: The MOU and a resignation

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Danielle Smith signed that MOU which will set up the conditions for Alberta to set up a process to build a bitumen pipeline to the coast where the tanker ban would be eviscerated, while also giving them a bunch of exemptions to other emissions reductions regulations, and the promise on Alberta’s part is to reduce emission intensity—meaning as they produce more, emissions are still increasing, just by a smaller amount in theory, though I certainly believe that intensity reductions in the oilsands flatlined a while ago. It also means that this relies even more on Pathways, which is expensive and is going to keep demanding money, and I have no confidence that Carney’s government will resist the calls to subsidise it directly. David Eby went on to refer to this future pipeline as an “energy vampire,” while coastal First Nations continue to insist it’ll never happen. And then Steven Guilbeault resigned from Cabinet, because this goes against everything he has been fighting for his entire life, and his time in office, while other MPs in his caucus are increasingly angry about how they are being treated over this issue.

https://bsky.app/profile/supriya.bsky.social/post/3m6ngogmhqs2x

In the midst of this, Andrew Leach has been reminding us about the real history of Northern Gateway, not the sanitized and revisionist version that the Conservatives have been promoting, and the fact that their constant demands that the government “get out of the way” didn’t seem to apply to the entirety of the Harper government, as the project started under the Martin government, and ultimately failed at the end of Harper’s tenure, when his government couldn’t even be arsed to follow their own process for Indigenous consultation.

In pundit reaction, Jason Markusoff notes that this agreement will do little to mollify the separatists in Danielle Smith’s base when her leadership review comes up. Andrew Coyne sees this as a shift in Canadian politics back toward building things, and capturing the political centre. Stephen Maher wonders just how politically canny Carney really is, considering the traps for himself that this agreement sets.

No it fucking won't. They've been gorging themselves on grievance porn for decades now. Nothing any government does is going to calm them.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-11-28T03:30:10.597Z

Danielle Smith Celebrates Her Glorious Pipeline Victoryyoutu.be/GVk54cla9zw

Clare Blackwood (@clareblackwood.bsky.social) 2025-11-27T21:13:16.340Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Putin claims that Russian forces have surrounded Pokrovsk, while Ukraine contends that the fighting continues in the city centre, and that they are pushing back hard. He also says it’s no use signing an agreement with “illegitimate” Ukrainian leadership (because he really wants peace, you guys).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1994013852753702989

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Roundup: Low expectations for the Alberta MOU

Today’s the big day where prime minister Mark Carney will be in Calgary to sign that Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta premier Danielle Smith regarding the province’s plans for their energy future. Everyone is focused on the potential for a pipeline to the BC coast as part of it, though it is apparently about more, such as maybe giving Albertan an out from other environmental regulations if they can complete certain other measures (which still leaves them off the hook considering that they are one of the largest emitters in the country).

But again, there is no actual pipeline deal as part of this. It lays out conditions that are probably going to be impossible to meet (particularly given that the Coastal First Nations, who are the rights and title holders in the area, have repeatedly said there is never going to be a pipeline that is acceptable). And while industry wants the tanker ban lifted, even as a “symbolic measure,” again that ban was the social licence for a number of other projects in the area to move ahead. And industry observers will still point out that even if they get everything they want, it’s still unlikely to find a proponent because the existing pipeline network can absorb the planned production capacity—and it’s no longer the world it was before 2014 and the oil market has changed significantly. That’s one reason by BC’s energy minister says this is little more than a $14 million “communications exercise.”

Meanwhile, Carney’s caucus problem is not going away, and while government thinks that they did a great job having Tim Hodgson explain things to BC caucus, members of said caucus were not exactly thrilled as Hodgson used words like “naïve” and “ideological” when responding to their concerns (thus cementing his status as the most overrated members of Carney’s front bench). And it also sounds like they’ve needed to calm Steven Guilbeault down from resigning in protest, though the current line is that he’s staying to do more good on the inside, but that’s not exactly offering much in the way of reassurance. So much of this goes back to what we were saying yesterday, that Carney is still operating like a boss and not a leader, and who thinks that he can dictate to caucus rather than live in fear that they can oust him if he oversteps (because they absolutely can, even if they don’t think they have that ability).

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-11-26T23:01:36.461Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The toll from the attack on Zaporizhzhia late Tuesday has risen to 19 injuries. The background of that “peace plan” has been leaked and proven to be Russian in origin, but Russia claims the leaks amount to “hybrid warfare.”

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QP: Admitting a poor choice of words

After a week away, they PM was back in the Chamber for QP, and so were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, declaring that Mark Carney hasn’t been able to reduce a single tariff in his 28 trips abroad, but he did manage to find gains for Brookfield, including a deal that was signed days after his meeting with Trump, and he also noted that the European Space Agency is on a Brookfield-owned campus, and wondered why every time he goes abroad, Canadians get poorer and Brookfield gets richer. Carney dismissed this, saying that Poilievre should check his figures as Indonesia reduced their tariffs on Canadian goods, and that they got a $70 billion commitment of investment from the UAE. Poilievre then switched to English to declare how much he cares for workers after Carney made his “Who cares?” aside at the G20. Carney noted that since he became PM, Canada has secured the lowest tariff rate in the world, and that there are sectors for whom they are under pressure, and the he does care and they are enacting further supports. Poilievre gave another “who cares?” exhortation, and Carney took a swipe at Poilievre not getting elected before admitting that he made a poor choice of words on a serious issue, and rounded off with some back-patting about his trade deals. Poilievre insisted that Carney has made nothing but mistakes on trade, and raised that Stephen Harper got a softwood deal when he came into office, before going on another paean about how much the cares. Carney insisted that they care about Canadians, which is why they have a budget to “catalyze” investments, while the Conservatives voted against Canada’s future. Poilievre returned his first question on Carney not getting any wins on tariffs and the supposed gains for Brookfield. Carney repeated out that Indonesia is reducing its tariffs by 95 percent, that we have the best deal with the Americans, and the UAE wants to invest $70 billion in Canada. Poilievre again insisted this was about Brookfield, before pivoting to the MOU with Alberta and demanded to know what date construction would begin on a new pipeline. Carney said that this was about necessary conditions, not sufficient conditions, and that the government of BC and the First Nations need to agree.

Christine Normandin rose for the Bloc and immediately accused the Liberals of cheating, and said that Chrétien sped up citizenships to help sway the Quebec in 1995, and wondered if they would cheat again in a new referendum. Carney pointed out that they have more Liberals in their caucus than the Bloc, and they respect Quebeckers. Normandin repeated her accusations, and again demanded a fair fight in a future referendum. Carney said the Bloc dwell in the past while he is turned to the future. Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe took over to make the same accusations, and Carney gave the same bland assurances around building for the future.

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Roundup: Laughable “dedicated partners”

Yesterday was Trans Day of Remembrance, to commemorate trans people who have died from violence and discrimination, and there were places across the country who did things like flag-raisings, and talked about the importance of inclusion, or their vague promises for LGBQT+ Action Plans™, which they haven’t delivered on (ahem, Nova Scotia). But nothing takes the cake compared to Alberta.

Alberta, which this week invoked the Notwithstanding Clause to shield three of its laws that delegitimise and attack trans rights in the province, and where a UCP backbencher compared gender affirmation to cattle castration in defending said invocation of the Notwithstanding Clause. Where a UCP candidate was temporarily booted from caucus for comparing trans students in a classroom to faeces in cooking dough, only to be reinstated months later with no questions asked. Who went through a major exercise in book-banning that aimed squarely on trans and queer materials. And with all of this, the province’s status of women minister put out a statement that, I shit you not, said “Our government remains a dedicated partner of transgender Albertans.”

The Alberta government putting out a statement for Trans Day of Remembrance two days after using the Notwithstanding Clause to override trans kids rights feels like parody at this point "Our government remains a dedicated partner of transgender Albertans.”

Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2025-11-20T16:37:36.723Z

I just can’t. Words fail. It’s beyond parody. It’s just cruelty for the sake of cruelty, but Danielle Smith is doing this because she doesn’t want the swivel-eyed loons in her party base to eat her face, especially with another party convention on the way where she could face a leadership review. (And a good deal of blame falls on Jason Kenney for empowering these loons when he kicked the centrist normies out of the party). And because it bears reminding, trans people are always the first targeted by fascists, so what’s happening is the canary in the coal mine. Nothing good can come of this.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-11-20T15:05:10.130Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia claims that they have taken the city of Kupiansk, but Ukraine denies this. There was an exchange of soldiers’ bodies—Ukraine received 1000, while Russia got 30. The Russian-US “peace plan” involves turning over the fortified areas of the Donbas region Putin hasn’t been able to seize, and limiting the size of Ukraine’s military, none of which is acceptable.

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Roundup: A Swedish state visit

The King and Queen of Sweden on a state visit to Canada, for the first time since 2006, bringing with them some top ministers and business officials. It was also the first visit since Sweden joined NATO, and has been noted that Canada was the first country to support that membership, and that Swedish troops are now under Canadian command in Latvia. Prime minister Mark Carney announced that Canada and Sweden have signed a strategic partnership, before there was a state dinner in their honour, hosted by the Chief Justice as Mary Simon is still recovering from her recent hospitalisation.

Of course, one of the things looming over this visit is Sweden trying to convince Canada to buy Gripen fighter jets, given the reconsideration of the F-35 purchase thanks to American unreliability (particularly when their president muses openly about nerfing the planes they sell us, and where they could hold software or necessary upgrades hostage). Mélanie Joly made it known yesterday that Lockheed Martin has not exactly been generous with its industrial benefits for the F-35 programme—as participants in the Joint Strike Fighter programme, Canadian firms are part of the manufacturing process, but that’s fairly limited, and doesn’t include any of the intellectual property concerns. (That participation in parts manufacturing is being labelled by activists as “complicity” in Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, incidentally). SAAB, meanwhile, is dangling the prospect of 10,000 jobs in Canada as part of assembling Gripens, not just for Canada, but also to expand their production capacity for orders from countries like Ukraine. The question is essentially becoming whether we want a mixed fleet, which is more expensive, but may provide better reliability given the state of relations with the US, even though we will likely need some number of F-35s as part of continental defence with the Americans.

Meanwhile, I also learned that the King of Sweden’s great-grandfather was Prince Arthur of Connaught, who served as Governor General in Canada in the 1910s, and lived at Rideau Hall, which meant that it was a bit of a homecoming for said King. The more you know.

From the state dinner pool report: "In his speech, King Carl XVI Gustaf thanked Canada for the warm welcome and said it was a "pleasure" to be back in the country. He said his great grandfather, Prince Arthur of Connaught, was Governor General of Canada in the 1910s, and lived in Rideau Hall."

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T02:42:11.788Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck an apartment building in Kharkiv, injuring at least thirty-two, while drones and missiles have also been hitting civilian targets in Ternopil and Lviv in the western part of the country. President Zelenskyy is off to Türkiye this week try and jumpstart negotiations with Russia (for all the good that will do). Russian intelligence is being blamed for railway sabotage in Poland, on lines that connect to Ukraine and carry vital supplies.

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Roundup: Playing chicken with the budget vote

The vote on the Ways and Means motion around the federal budget will be held early this evening, at the collapse of debate, and as of yet, nobody is willing to say just how it’s going to pass. And rest assured, it will pass, because nobody wants an election, and the NDP in particular have no way of affording going to an election (with an interim leader, no less), but absolutely nobody wants to actually look like they’re going to back down when they can swing their dicks around instead.

And so, we’re now in a game of chicken. The Government Whip says they’re ready to go to an election on this budget if they have to, but it’s an empty threat because nobody actually wants to go to an election. The real problem is there being a potential accident where someone isn’t supposed to vote (for the sake of the numbers) does, because everyone can vote on their phones now (which, I remind you, is a parliamentary abomination and should be stopped), and it goes over the edge. But I’m pretty sure that’s not going to happen, because again, nobody wants to go to an election, especially the Conservatives and the NDP. So, I suspect the Conservative whip is going to ensure that someone has unforeseen circumstances that they “just can’t vote,” and oh, well, the budget passed by the narrowest of margins. Oh darn.

Because we’re not going to have an election over this.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck the city of Balakliia in Kharkiv region, killing three and wounding at least ten. Russia claims it has taken two more settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south. President Zelenskyy says he is working on another prisoner exchange with Russia.

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Roundup: The second tranche of PONIs

Yesterday was the day that Mark Carney announced the second tranche of PONIs to be referred to the Major Projects Office, which consisted of six existing projects and one “concept,” which I’m pretty unsure how it was supposed to work. Three of those projects are mines—Sisson Mine for tungsten in New Brunswick, Crawford Nickel project in Ontario, and the Nouveau Monde Graphite phase 2 project in Quebec. Those very much align with the desire to make Canada a more trustworthy supplier of critical minerals than China (though pat of the problem is that they have a near-monopoly on refining and processing). A hydro project for Iqaluit was on the list, as was a transmission line between northwestern BC and the Yukon, and an LNG Project on the BC coast that has some Indigenous partnerships (but  not every First Nation in the area is in favour, and there are concerns about its ownership structure). As for that “concept,” it is referred to as the Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor, also between northwest B.C. and Yukon., and it could include critical minerals and clean power transmission developments in the area. Again, I’m not sure how that works with no actual project or proponent.

In some of these cases, as in the first tranche of projects, some of them are fairly well developed and along the process, while in others, they’ve been discussed forever and have some Indigenous buy-in, but shovels have never been in the ground (like the Sisson Mine). It again raises questions about what the MPO is supposed to do here, but its head, Dawn Farrell, was talking about ensuring that these processes happen in parallel and not sequentially, and would also do things like security financing, guaranteeing pricing, and ensuring a supply of skilled labour, which seems like an awful lot of things for them to try and control for.

And then there’s Alberta and its imaginary pipeline, which Danielle Smith insists she’s still working on, so she’s supportive of these projects, because she is still “negotiating” for that pipeline to the northwest BC coast that neither the province nor the affected First Nations want, while there is a growing supply glut in the market. I’m pretty sure another pipeline won’t save her province’s finances, but she’s going to keep trying.

Ukraine Dispatch

Kyiv was under another “massive” attack early this morning, and at least eleven people have been wounded. President Zelenskyy visited troops near the front lines in Zaporizhzhia.

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