Tag Archives: India

Roundup: The capacity to spend

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One of the constant refrains since the Trump election is that Canada needs to get serious about increasing out defence spending faster, or he’ll be mean to us in NATO, or something like that. While I would note that he’ll be mean to us regardless because that’s who he is, and that he’s never understood how NATO actually works, so whether or not our spending is above 2 percent of GDP or not is almost a moot question. But the biggest consideration is actually whether we actually have the capacity to spend more.

The thing is, defence spending has gone up significantly, but the military lapses some of that spending on a yearly basis because they just can’t get that spending out of the door, for various reasons, including the fact that they simply don’t have the personnel to do everything that needs to be done, and you can’t just hire someone off the street in most of these cases—military personnel is just that, and they take time to train and rise up through the ranks appropriately. Add in the recruitment and retention crisis (thanks to sexual misconduct and abuse of power in the General Officer and Flag Officer ranks), and it makes it even harder.

Nevertheless, here’s Philippe Lagassé with some thoughts on building the capacity to spend more.

Ukraine Dispatch

It appears that Russia has fired cruise missiles against Kyiv for the first time in two months, not just drones. The US confirms that North Korean troops are now fighting alongside Russian forces.

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Roundup: Making more dishonest hay out of the New York condo

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The House of Commons’ Government Operations Committee heard from Mélanie Joly yesterday about the purchase of the new residence for the Consul General in New York, where Joly spoke about the importance to have a presence in New York, and that all of the rules were followed. (Both are true). The Conservatives, however, think they found some kind of smoking gun when Politico obtained documents through Access to Information that they claim “proves” that Tom Clark, said Consul General, had a role in the decision when he previously testified that he hadn’t. Except the documents don’t really say what they claim. There, the documents show that Clark pointed out that the residence is not wheelchair accessible, and that the relationship with the condo board has been deteriorating because of rules around when and what kinds of events can be hosted, which is one of the main reasons this residence exists.

They are trying to get Clark back to committee to grill him again, but that doesn’t change the fact that even if he pointed out that the current residence isn’t suited, he didn’t have any hand in the decision making that led to the new property. There is no contradiction to his testimony, but they have been content to lie about it all day, in press releases and in the House of Commons, because they can. In the political right, brazen lying has become a power play because they know they can get away with it because they won’t be called on it (the most media will do is both-sides them), and in creating these alternate universes from those lies, it becomes an in-group identification for their followers. We are in a very dangerous place with our democracy, and nobody wants to call this out.

Speaking of committees, far-right commentator Lauren Chen of Tenet Media, which is alleged to have taken Russian money, was summoned to appear at the public safety committee, where she attended, but refused to answer questions. This led to a unanimous motion to refer the matter to the Speaker, who will no doubt rule that this is yet another prima facie case of privilege being breached, but the Conservatives will have to end their current filibuster before they can move onto this particular issue.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s military shot down 48 drones and two missiles overnight Monday, while a missile attack on Zaporizhzhia killed six and injured at least twenty more on Tuesday. Ukrainian troops say that they have engaged with North Korean units in their occupied portions of the Kursk region of Russia, for the first time.

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Roundup: Toxifying a committee

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The ongoing denigration of this Parliament continues, as the toxic swamp that committees have devolved into has claimed another victim. Liberal MP Anita Vandenbeld, who has a resumé full of doing work with women and civil society engagement in other countries, removed herself from the Status of Women committee after relentless harassment from Conservative members of the committee, in particular Michelle Ferreri, plus the actions of the Chair, Shelby Kramp-Neuman, in facilitating it, all of it stemming from the set-up that the Conservatives engineered over that so-called “emergency meeting” in the summer where the Chair abused her authority to summon witnesses with no agreement for a study that had not been agreed to, which was being used to try and embarrass the government.

The Status of Women committee used to be one of the most functional and non-partisan committees in the House of Commons, but Poilievre and the Conservatives couldn’t have that. They insisted on replacing the previous committee chair for Kramp-Neuman, who has been doing their bidding, and have made it toxic and dysfunctional, like everything else in this current parliament, because that is part of their overall plan. They need to break everything in order to blame the government, justify an election and to tell people who don’t follow politics and don’t understand what’s going on here that they need to come to power so that they can fix things, when really, the plan is that once they are in power, they will start dismantling the guardrails of the state. None of this is subtle, or novel, and it’s been done in plenty of other countries where their democracies have been dismantled by far-right parties, and it’s happening here while our media stands idly by because both-sides and “We don’t care about process stories,” while the Elder Pundits keep tut-tutting and insisting that it won’t be that bad. We’re getting into some seriously dangerous territory, and nobody wants to sound the alarm.

Big #cdnpoli energy.We are headed in a very bad direction.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-10-29T14:16:59.724Z

Speaking of committees, the public safety committee heard from top national security officials, who were there to talk about the foreign interference including violence and homicide commissioned by the Indian government, and they made some pretty important revelations, but MPs didn’t really want to hear it, because once again, they were too busy grinding partisan axes. The Conservatives only asked about the embargoed briefing to the Washington Post, which has been falsely termed a “leak,” when it was confirmed that they were contacted by writers from the Post to confirm certain details from their reporting, which they agreed to under the embargo, in part because it was seen as a credible newspaper that could counter the coming disinformation from Indian sources (and we know that certain newspapers in Canada had swallowed Indian disinformation whole on previous occasions). And the Liberals? They were too busy gathering clips of these officials explaining why Pierre Poilievre should get his security clearance. Honest to Zeus, this shouldn’t be this difficult, especially for such a sensitive topic, but nope. MPs have once again beclowned themselves.

Ukraine Dispatch

At least nine people were injured and several apartments set on fire by a drone attack on Kyiv. Russians claim they have seized control of Selydove and are moving to encircle the town of Kurakhove in the east. Also facing imminent Russian threat is Pokrovsk, where the coal mines that fuel the steel mills are still operating as Russians close in.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1851276298242466109

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Roundup: Calling for the moderates to re-engage

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Over in The Line, former provincial Progressive Conservative (and former federal Conservative) comms staffer Chisholm Pothier goes though Blaine Higgs’ downfall in New Brunswick, and in particular how his obsession with “parental rights” as a cover for oppressing trans youth was one of the main drivers of that collapse, particularly because the Liberals in that province were talking about the things people were worried about, like housing and healthcare. He eschewed the usual partisan nonsense and congratulated Suan Holt on a deserved win. But that wasn’t the important part.

The most important takeaway from the piece, however, is that Pothier calls on Tories in New Brunswick to get memberships and get engaged with the party if they want to take it back from what Higgs turned it into, which is a narrow little cult catering primarily to Christian nationalists. This is something I have written columns about in the past—that it’s extremely important for ordinary people and moderates within a party to take out a membership and get involved at the grassroots level, because if you don’t, the crazies absolutely will and they will take over your party. This is what happened with the UCP in Alberta—when Jason Kenney engineered the hostile takeover of the PC party there, and then its merger with the Wildrose to form the UCP, it was done very much by getting the swivel-eyed loons to engage with the process at the expense of the moderates, whom they didn’t want in the party. This was to be a small-c conservative party and not the amorphous centrist mass that the PC party in Alberta had become, constantly reshaping itself and its beliefs to follow those of each successive leader. And now, it’s a party of hardcore fanatics, who turned on Kenney, and whom Danielle Smith is terrified they will do the same to her, so she is becoming increasingly radical in how she is governing as a result.

I cannot stress enough that ordinary people need to be engaged with parties at the grassroots level, or things get really bad. A party that only consists of Kool-Aid drinkers, regardless of the party, becomes toxic pretty fast (especially if they start going on with the purity tests). While the PCs in New Brunswick have a chance to reclaim their party, which is probably too late in Alberta (and couldn’t happen at all with the sudden capitulation of BC United to the BC Conservatives). It also may not be possible for the federal Liberals, who did away with party memberships altogether in favour of sign-ups that will populate their voter database while all power centralized in the leader’s office. Pothier’s advice should carry for all parts of the country, not just New Brunswick—if you want to keep your party from falling prey to fanatics of any stripe, you need to get involved as a member to push back against them.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched two waves of drone attacks over Kyiv, and one of them struck an apartment building, killing one and injuring five. A missile attack struck residences and a medical facility in Dnipro, killing three. G7 leaders announced $50 billion in loans to Ukraine to be repaid with seized Russian assets.

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QP: Conspicuous silence about India

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The first day back after a busy constituency week, and the PM was absent, though his deputy was present. Most of the other leaders were also away, but Pierre Poilievre was there, and he once again began in French to lament mortgage costs in Quebec, and complained that Trudeau was too worried about his own survival, before demanding an election. Chrystia Freeland said that she was glad the Conservatives were thinking about the economy, and she praised the fact that inflation has been tamed, which the Conservatives don’t want to talk about. Poilievre needed that Trudeau is facing a backbench revolt and demanded an election, to which Karina Gould noted that the Conservatives were trying to avoid another vote in the Chamber that they would lose. Poilievre switched to English to lament that people lined up in Cloverdale, BC, for “ugly potato day,” and used this to demand an election. Freeland noted that Poilievre was crying crocodile tears because he voted against their school food programme. Poilievre gave a more emphatic version of the same, and Freeland noted that the Conservatives were damning themselves by their intransigence, and described the launch of their school food programme in Manitoba on Friday. Poilievre was incredulous as this, accused the prime minister of being in the “fetal position” under his desk, and demanded an election. Freeland dismissed this as the Conservatives losing the plot, and their concerns about inflation Missed that his has been back in the target range for nine months.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demanded the government support the Bloc’s OAS enrichment bill. Steve MacKinnon said the Bloc have never voted in the interests of seniors, so this was disingenuous. Therrien then turned to the Supply Management bill in the Senate, and lamented that the prime minister was not pressuring senators, and Jean-Yves Duclos noted the government’s support for system all along.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, worried about foreign interference from India, and wondered if the PM had personally urged Poilievre to get his security clearance. Dominic LeBlanc said that they extended the offer, and that they are working to keep Canadians safe. Singh tried again in French and got much the same response. 

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Roundup: Another vice-regal safeguard?

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As the security clearance discourse carries on, we remain confronted by the false notions that Pierre Poilievre is unable to receive a clearance, rather than the fact that he is unwilling, using the false claim that it’s somehow a “trap” to keep him from criticising the government. It’s not, there’s plenty of opportunity for him to criticise the government while being fully briefed, but as is the tradition with Canadian politicians, they have long preferred not to know because then they would have to be responsible in their commentary rather than bombastic, or as the Beaverton aptly put it, he would have to lie just slightly less than he already does.

Nevertheless, this turns to the question of what would happen if someone were to become prime minister, or at least win an election, where there are genuine security concerns about them? Well, Philippe Lagassé has an answer for that, and it lies in the reserve powers of the Governor General.

He makes a crucial point that it would be beyond the pale for CSIS and the RCMP to somehow have the veto over the appointment of a prime minister, but the discretion of the Governor General could conceivably be the constitutional fire extinguisher in such a case. It’s extremely unlikely to ever happen, but nevertheless, it’s a good thought exercise to consider given the times we live in.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck a residential district in Odesa on Friday, but there were no casualties. Residents in Kupiansk are fleeing ahead of a Russian advance in the area. Both Russia and Ukraine swapped 95 prisoners each in a deal brokered by the UAE. South Korean intelligence is corroborating Ukrainian intelligence’s claim that North Korea is now sending troops to right for Russia. Here’s a look at how far-right influencers openly used Russian money to make “documentary” hit-jobs on Ukraine and president Zelenskyy.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1847257217424113736

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Roundup: Scott Moe’s genital inspectors

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While I haven’t been following the Saskatchewan election too closely, but while on the campaign trial, incumbent Scott Moe promised anti-trans change room policies if re-elected. And I just can’t even.

Set aside for the moment the fact that this is a) the kind of anti-LGBTQ+ scapegoating that comes out of the authoritarian playbook; and b) that Moe has already told on himself with his previous anti-trans legislation whereby he not only pre-emptively invoked the Notwithstanding Clause, but also inoculated himself and his government from being sued for any harm that comes to trans people as a result of these policies, this policy is unenforceable, just like Danielle Smith’s similar pledge to ban trans women from playing sports in women’s and girls’ leagues. Is the plan from either premier that they plan to hire government genital inspectors before someone can enter a change room or play on a sports team? Or do they plan to let vigilantes do it for them and expose already vulnerable trans people to more violence?

And this is the real kicker—this very quickly spirals out from anti-trans panic to all-out assault on women who don’t conform to a preconceived notion of femininity at the hands of these vigilantes. There was a case last summer in BC where someone demanded that a nine-year-old girl who had a short haircut prove that she was actually a girl at a school track meet. This is the kind of harassment that Moe and Smith are promoting—now every girl with short hair, or small breasts, or who is a called a “tomboy” will need to subject herself to ongoing genital inspections to ensure that she’s not trans. And heaven forfend if a child was born intersex and is not easily sorted into this particular system. Is this the world that they actually want? It’s insidious and it solves not a single problem other than the ones in their fevered imaginations. And the fact that Moe thinks this is his Hail Mary pass in an election where he can’t defend his own record speaks volumes about where this kind of anti-trans panic has taken hold among voters on the political right.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 56 drones and a missile overnight against Mykolaiv in the south, attacking their energy infrastructure. Russia claims that they took the village of Maksymilianivka, but this has not been confirmed. President Zelenskyy told NATO members that their intelligence indicates that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops could be deployed on Russia’s side in the conflict, but no one else could corroborate this.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1846855444934852759

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Roundup: Implicated Conservatives and the lack of security clearance

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It was quite the day at the Foreign Interference inquiry, as Justin Trudeau was on the stand and dropped this particular bombshell: “I have the names of a number of parliamentarians, former parliamentarians and-or candidates in the Conservative Party of Canada who are engaged (in) or at high risk of, or for whom there is clear intelligence around foreign interference.” He also indicated that where his own party is concerned, he has been dealing with any accusations internally, which includes ensuring that those implicated are not being given certain committee assignments or so on, which to be perfectly frank, is how one should be dealing with it (though he could have said at some point that he was aware of the report and has been dealing with it internally). The implication in all of this was that Pierre Poilievre, who refuses to get security-cleared, can’t do the same and it’s bewildering as to why.

Poilievre immediately fired back and accused Trudeau of lying under oath (quite something, especially considering that Poilievre is an avowed liar who lies all the time), and demanded that Trudeau release the names, which denies anyone implicated any due process. After all, some of this is intelligence and not evidence, and subjecting someone who was naïve in an interaction with a diplomat to a kangaroo court is hardly fair and could have particularly profound consequences, especially considering the escalating violence toward MPs, and that they will be tarred as “traitors” when in most cases, as the National Security Advisor said last week, many have simply engaged in bad behaviour or are unwitting because they don’t know better, but it hardly escalates to espionage or sabotage.

Part of the subplot around Poilievre’s refusal to get security clearance is the fact that his chief of staff is cleared and receives briefings—but is not considered “need-to-know” on this, because he’s not the party leader, and that’s a pretty big deal. It shouldn’t be up to the chief of staff to deal with implicated MPs, senators, or candidates, or to do something like rescind a nomination as a result of these allegations. In fact, two former CSIS directors even stated on television that they wouldn’t brief a chief of staff if the leader didn’t have clearance because the leader is the principal actor, and needs to be able to act on what the chief of staff tells him, which again, means needing to be briefed.

Another subplot around that security clearance issue was a delineation between someone who is a Privy Councillor, as Poilievre is, and security clearance, which frankly hasn’t been properly articulated before, and created confusion as a result, particularly because there were instances in the past where opposition leaders were sworn into Privy Council before being given classified briefings. This doesn’t, however, change the fact that Poilievre has chosen not to get a clearance, not that he can’t, which is the difference.

Meanwhile, the Beaverton managed to once again hit on the truth of the matter better than any legacy media outlet.

“Getting it would require him to lie slightly less than he does currently.”Bingo.Yet again, the Beaverton can get to the truth better than most legacy outlets can.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-10-16T23:44:40.382Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The latest drone strike by Russia saw 136 drones launched against Kyiv and other cities, and 68 of those were shot down, with 64 others unaccounted for, while at least two struck targets. Russians claimed they took two more villages—one in Donetsk, one in Luhansk—but Ukraine says that those attacks were repelled. Ukraine has asked the International Maritime Organization to send a monitoring mission to the ports in Odesa among increasing Russian attacks on grain storage and port infrastructure, which threatens global food security. A former Canadian soldier currently fighting in Ukraine has been injured, but wants to get back to the fight when he recovers. And we finally have details on President Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan,” some of which hinges on an “unconditional” NATO invitation.

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Roundup: A $7 million ad buy to tell on themselves

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Over the past several days, the Alberta government has been on a very strange campaign where they are in essence, telling on themselves by lying about the forthcoming federal emissions cap. How so, you ask? They keep insisting that this is a production cap on the energy sector, which is not what it is intended to be, particularly because the sector has been saying that they fully plan to be net-zero by 2050, and that these kinds of rules, while disliked by economists, would essentially force these companies to put their money where their mouths are. And, well, they have certainly been admitting that all of those promises to meet those targets through things like carbon capture have been pretty much all talk.

When Danielle Smith and her ministers tried to justify their ad campaign, well, things got even worse for them.

Meanwhile, the Alberta government bought the front pages of newspapers across the Postmedia chain at a cost of $7 million in order to decry this same policy, and in another telling lie, claim that it would increase grocery prices, because that’s the anxiety that they want to hit on in order to really stick it to the federal Liberals. But again, the problem here is that the driver of those higher grocery prices is climate change, and in particular, recurring droughts in food-producing regions, including in Canada, with a few flash floods or hurricanes along the way that also damage crops or livestock.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on the southern city of Mykolaiv has killed one and injured at least sixteen. A drone attack was also launched against Kyiv. The town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, and three surrounding settlements, were ordered evacuated. Russians claim to have taken the village of Levadne in the Zaporizhzhia region over the weekend.

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Roundup: Disagreeing with NSICOP’s interpretations

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From the G7 summit, Trudeau wouldn’t confirm or deny whether any current Liberal MPs are implicated in the NSICOP report, but also mentioned that there was some disagreement with the conclusions that the committee drew in their report, but again, wouldn’t point to what those disagreements are. His foreign minister, Mélanie Joly, said that if there were “traitors” in the Liberal caucus, they would have been booted by now. So there’s that.

More to the point, if you listen to some of the Elder Pundits chirping away over the Twitter Machine, it’s like they’re allowed to have disagreements. “Oh, Trudeau said that he thinks NSICOP is the right place to do a review but then he disagrees with them! Hmm!” I’m not sure why disagreements are such a scary prospect for these people. CSIS isn’t a magical arbiter of what is true and what isn’t. They get wrong or misinterpret things too. That’s why we need more holistic views, but certain politicians and the Elder Pundits demand absolute clarity, and an authoritative voice that can never be wrong (so long as it confirms their priors, because if it goes against what they believe, in which case all bets are off). But also, NSICOP hasn’t done itself any favours by not really defending their work in public, or by the chair being cute about the conclusions (when he has a record of being overly dramatic in some of his conclusions in order to get attention).

The fact that members of the government aren’t really spelling out the disagreement is frustrating. Is it the murky line between diplomacy and foreign interference? It sounds like it, reading through the lines, but maybe actually saying so would be helpful (and no, unlike what certain Elder Pundits have tried to assert, the difference between the two is not actually a bright line). And deflecting questions on this by trying to change the channel to the “good economic news” has not helped their credibility or the ability of the public to find a shred of reassurance hasn’t helped either. We’re talking about other party leaders needing to be gown ups, but the Liberals have a little work to do on this space as well, and that means stop trying to feed the public pabulum on this issue, and to be as frank as security concerns allow.

Summer sitting?

The Conservatives are once again putting on the dog and pony show to claim that they want to sit through the summer, and are trying to call out the NDP to join them, even though that’s not how this works, they know it’s not how this works, and this move would only advantage the government. This didn’t work at Christmas, it won’t work over the summer, and if they want to run committees through the summer, more power to them, but that doesn’t actually change anything.

Ukraine Dispatch

The 78 of the countries at the peace summit in Switzerland agreed that peace must include the territorial integrity of Ukraine, though not every country attending did sign on. (Full text here). LGBTQ+ soldiers in Ukraine marched in Kyiv’s Pride parade over the weekend, calling for the kinds of partnership rights that would allow couples to make medical decisions or claim bodies killed in the conflict (and also further differentiate Ukraine from Russia).

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