Tag Archives: Inflation

QP: Appealing to the NDP Whip?

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While the prime minister was away, none of the other leaders were present either, though the deputy PM was attending virtually. Luc Berthold led off, and he decried Motion 11 on extending sitting hours, and wondered if the NDP were be whipped on the vote (which…isn’t really a question to the government, as much as they’re trying to be clever about there allegedly being a coalition). Kevin Lamoureux insisted this was simply about more hours for debate, which surely nobody could object to. (Note that there are things that can be objected to, but neither side will be reasonable in the discussion). Berthold then listed off some torqued versions of this government’s ethical lapses, and wondered if someone on the other side would say enough was enough, and Lamoureux dismissed this as mere personal attacks. Berthold demanded that the RCMP re-open the investigation into the Aga Khan vacation—never mind that they already concluded that there was no evidence—and Lamoureux dismissed it again as personal attacks instead of focusing on things that matter. James Bezan took over in English to demand an RCMP investigation, and Lamoureux insisted that this was simply character assassination. Bezan tried to pretend he was a prosecutor who had obtained a witness box confession, and Lamoureux deployed the “three leaders ago” quip.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he praised the police action over the weekend with the “bike rally” and how they didn’t need the Emergencies Act, and he wondered if it was necessary at all months ago. Marco Mendicino also praised the police’s actions, and said that the invoked the Emergencies Act at the time because it was needed. Therrien spun a version of events during the occupation that presumed more federal powers than exist, and Mendicino repeated that they needed the Act that time.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, and he lamented that federal COVID sickness benefits were expiring, and Karina Gould appeared by video to say that they extended EI sickness benefits, which was not the same thing. Daniel Blaikie took over to add some sanctimony to the question, and demanded the benefits be extended, and Gould listed actions they have taken around sick days (for federally-regulated sectors) and EI modernisation.

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QP: Concerns about the scope of the inquiry

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Despite the fact that he gave a press conference outside of the Chamber minutes before QP, the prime minister was not present, nor were any of the other leaders. Luc Berthold led off, and in French, he accused the government of writing the Emergencies Act inquiry’s findings before it even began. Chrystia Freeland slowly read some talking points about the blockades and occupation, and said they look forward to the inquiry report. Berthold again accused the government of fixing the report in their favour, and Freeland read that the measures were targeted and limited, and that they had a duty to protect Canadians and the economy, which they met. Berthold then switched to the torqued story on the RCMP memo and demanded a new investigation, which Freeland slowly and patiently read that the opposition was bringing up a six-year-old matter that has been settled. James Bezan took over in English to demand a new RCMP investigation, and Freeland again slowly read the same talking points in English. Bezan selectively quoted the RCMP memo, without quoting that they concluded there was no evidence, and Freeland responded that Canadians are instead demanding action on climate change, to build more house, and to support Ukraine.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he complained that a new committee was being set up to deal with the Winnipeg Lab documents without the consent of two opposition parties, and Freeland read that they came up with a reasonable solution, and that they would move ahead with this committee. Therrien repeated his complaint, and Freeland repeated her answer.

Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP by video, and said that Quebeckers demand universal pharmacare—erm, which would be an issue of provincial jurisdiction—and demanded a federal solution. Freeland read that they announced an agreement with PEI last August as a first step, but they were continuing the work. Matthew Green raised the plan to lift the federal sickness benefit and demanded the enactment of ten paid sick days (in federally-regulated workplaces, surely). Freeland praised working with unions and their legislation to make those sick days happen.

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QP: Go meet with the RCMP again

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The prime minister was present today, as were all other leaders, so that was a nice change. Candice Bergen led off with her script, and she declared that “fraud on the government” occurred with relation to the prime minister’s trip to the Aga Khan’s private island—the details of which Bergen omitted and framed to sound more lurid—to which Justin Trudeau noted that this was dealt with five years ago, and that the Conservatives were focused on him while he was focused on Canadians. Bergen demanded a yes or no answer as to whether he gave himself permission to break the law, and Trudeau gave a resounding no, and that the RCMP decided there was nothing to pursue, and that it was thoroughly investigated by third parties, while the government doesn’t interfere in the RCMP’s operations. Bergen suggested that Trudeau go back to the RCMP to let them reconsider, and he more emphatically noted that government does not direct the RCMP. Luc Berthold took over in French, demanded the same response on the decision not to pursue the fraud charge, and Trudeau again repeated that this matter was put to bed and that the RCMP made their own decision. Berthold tried to suss this out further, and he too demanded that Trudeau meet with the RCMP again, and Trudeau listed the things the government was doing while the Conservatives were playing petty politics.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and accused Trudeau of disrespecting Canadians and Ukrainians by not chartering flights for those refugees, to which Trudeau read the script that they are working safely and effectively, and thanks to the emergency travel fund, it was the safest and most effective way to act. Blanchet took issue with the rapidity at which this is happening, and Trudeau insisted that they were taking all measures to expedite this travel.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and after some word salad about profits and corporations, he demanded the government block the proposed merger between Rogers and Shaw. Trudeau noted that they set a goal to lower prices, it actually happened, which is why they were focused on competition and access. Singh switched to French to repeat the demand, and Trudeau recited the same response that did not address the demand.

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QP: Resurrecting a five-year-old scandal

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After a number of tributes for Guy Lafleur, and one for former astronaut Bjarni Tryggvason, things got underway after the two-week break. While he was in town, the prime minister was absent, but his deputy was present, so that was something, though no other leaders were present either. Luc Berthold led off in French, and he he decried the budget, accusing the prime minster of being out of touch. Chrystia Freeland replied that Canadians understand that inflation is a global phenomenon, and she listed some international comparisons to show that Canada was lower, citing the reasons as COVID and Putin. Berthold then pivoted to the story in the Globe and Mail about the RCMP considering laying a fraud charge against the prime minister for the trip to the Aga Khan’s private island, to which Mark Holland stood up to say that this matter was settled years ago. Berthold insisted this proved Trudeau’s lack of judgment, and decried the loophole in the law, and demanded to know when Trudeau last met with the RCMP, and Holland repeated his response. James Bezan repeated the question about the story in English, and he wondered if the prime minister gave himself the power to break the law, and Mark Holland got back up to recite in English that this was settled five years ago and that the Ethics Commissioner had a report. Bezan repeated his question, and Holland sang the praises about the government’s economic actions.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he led with this dubious court decision of the appointment of a unilingual lieutenant governor of New Brunswick, saying it demonstrates that the government treats francophones as second-class citizens, and Ginette Petitpas-Taylor insisted that the LG was taking French lessons, and why they were modernising the Official Languages Act. Therrien kept after this, and added to his outrage the appointment of a unilateral anglophone board of directors at CN Rail, and Omar Alghabra insisted that this board would be rectified in the next round of appointments.

Rachel Blaney rose for the NDP, and she raised the fact that the seniors reimbursed for GIS clawbacks were subjected to a time limit, for which Kamal Khera rose to recite her praise for the government’s actions on seniors. Don Davies raised the fact that the government was backing down on some PMPRB regulatory changes for drug pricing, and Adam van Koeverden read a statement about balancing access for new medicines and lowering drug prices.

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Roundup: Undermining the central bank to score points

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It is now approximately day sixty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and after saying that they would blockade the remaining Ukrainians trapped in Mariupol, the Russians have instead tried to storm the steel plant where they are holed up. As well, over Orthodox Easter weekend, they have shelled residential areas of Kharkiv, and fired missiles at Odessa, so that’s concerning. As well, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a meeting with two US cabinet members, where Zelenskyy is expecting more arms and security guarantees.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1518192560816201728

Closer to home, as the narratives around inflation get more ridiculous the longer they go unchallenged, remember that this both undermines the ability of the Central Bank to do its work, and ultimately it undermines its independence because they have to fight political narratives about them without actually fighting them, which is a hell of a thing to try to do.

And the longer the nonsense goes unchallenged, and my media colleagues try to be cute about “heehee, everyone is a little bit right!” as they both-sides the nonsense, the closer I’m getting to this particular Effin’ bird:

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Roundup: Legitimizing lunatic narratives about inflation

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We are now around day fifty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it looks like Russia is shifting more units to attacking cities in Eastern Ukraine, and what could be a battle to control the country’s industrial heartland. We also have satellite images that show Russians digging mass graves around Mariupol to try and hide evidence of their war crimes and atrocities against civilians in that city. In Russia, the regime is cracking down harder on its critics, including Vladimir Kara-Murza, who is being charged under the new law that criminalises spreading “false information,” and could be imprisoned for up to 15 years as a result.

Closer to home, I have about lost all patience with the way that the inflation numbers are being reported on, particularly because it’s primarily a lot of both-sidesing without actually reading the gods damned Consumer Price Index from Statistics Canada, even though it’s right there, and spells out what the drivers are. But because our media outlets—and both the CBC and The Canadian Press are especially bad about this—are more invested in the appearance of fairness for political messages than actually calling out falsehoods, simply give equal time to all of the messages. This particular piece on the CBC’s site yesterday, that goes and very gently debunks the messages that different political parties are spreading, is a lot more both-sidesing because it’s still giving equal weight to all of these messages, even if it’s getting experts to push back a little bit (but in some cases, still framing it as though some of these messages are still “a little bit right,” which is the cute trick that they’ve been relying on to not look like they’re biased against any party). And how much room is given to explaining the actual drivers? A single, small paragraph that lists a few of them in general terms, rather than laying out the issues of energy production and fuel shortages in certain countries, or the global supply shortage of semiconductor chips, or most importantly, the fact that we’ve had a lot of droughts in food-producing regions, including in Canada, and that is having a huge impact on food prices because the supply simply isn’t there.

Why this becomes even more important is because you have Pierre Poilievre saying flat out that the Bank of Canada’s economists are “financially illiterate,” because he learned better from the crypto bros on YouTube. It’s alarming, and if the mass media can’t push back against this utter lunacy, but instead soft-pedals it and frames it like “everyone is a little bit right” when they don’t actually bother to go to the gods damned statistical data, it lets this utterly bogus narrative gain traction and legitimacy. This is a problem for our democracy and our society in general, because they’re afraid that Poilievre’s bot army will be mad at them. They’re going to call you biased whatever you do, so why not show a bit of fortitude and call the lies what they are?

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1517525404126490624

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Roundup: Higher inflation than expected

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It is now day fifty-seven (or so) of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and hope is waning for the remaining defenders of Mariupol, and the civilians still sheltering there. As the fighting intensifies in the eastern part of the country, there are also concerns that it will devolve into a war of attrition, which Russia has historically been more able to withstand. We have also learned more about what happened when Russian troops occupied Chernobyl, where staff were working at gunpoint, and sleeping three hours a night in order to safeguard the site and ensure that Russians didn’t tamper with any of the equipment there.

Closer to home, the inflation numbers were released yesterday, and they were much higher than expected, as conflict inflation brought on by the aforementioned invasion of Ukraine is hitting. And of course, most media outlets were useless in explaining the causes of it, while the parties were equally useless in their own reactions. The government keeps focusing on their talking points about things like child care and dental care, and the fact that they indexed benefits, rather than actually explaining the drivers. The Conservatives are railing about “printing money” (which, to be clear, nobody is actually doing) and insisting that the government should declare a GST holiday, which would a) do nothing for grocery prices as most groceries are GST-exempt; and b) would have a stimulative effect and just fuel even more inflation, especially as people would be likely to use said GST holiday to buy big-ticket items. And the NDP, predictably, chalk this up to greed and want higher wealth taxes, which again, do very little about the drivers of inflation.

And then there’s the Bank of Canada, who will be forced to respond with higher rate hikes, but the question becomes whether they’ll keep the increases more gradual—another 50 basis points at the next meeting in June—of if they’ll go even higher as a way of demonstrating that they are really taking this seriously and that the system of inflation control that they’ve been responsible for since the 1990s will prevail. It doesn’t directly address the drives, but it could be that the signals are more important than the actual policy at this point, because the bigger worry is the expectation that inflation will continue, which will turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy—something they are very, very keen to avoid.

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Roundup: Sanctions take time to really bite

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It’s now around day forty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it’s carrying on as Putin insists that they will continue until they meet their goals. This as there are unconfirmed reports that chemical weapons were used in an attack in Mariupol, while Russian spokespeople from Donbas were discussing the possibility. That could lead to another escalation in sanctions, and talk of “red lines,” though that didn’t seem to do much good when it happened in Syria. The mayor of Mariupol says that more than 10,000 civilians have been killed as the strategic port city continues being flattened by Russian forces. Ukrainian government officials also say that they have thwarted an attempt by Russian hackers to knock out power to parts of the country, and it’s worth noting that Canada has been providing cyber-security assistance to Ukraine.

On the subject of sanctions, there are lots of questions circulating about how effective they really are if the invasion continues, and it’s one of those things for which it’s not an easy answer. Yes, they’re hurting Russia, but Putin and his inner circle seem fairly insulated from some of the worst of it, in part because they managed to stop the ruble from collapsing entirely. That makes it even more imperative to provide military support to Ukraine so that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield, which will hurt Putin more. This doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t carry on with sanctions, because we should, but they’re at the point where they are hurting us as well, and we had Conservatives demanding exemptions for farmers last week who bought fertilizer from Russia before the conflict began and now don’t want to pay the tariffs associated. But for sanctions to be effective, they will hurt us as well, and people seem to forget that.

As well, this conflict is now going to have an effect on inflation globally, because of the effect of diverting from Russian oil and gas, and from the effect this war has on Ukraine’s ability to produce and export food, as the breadbasket of Europe. Of course, it’s going to continue to be blamed on government spending (never mind that it actually isn’t, and this is a global problem), and the Bank of Canada is going to hike rates this week if only because they need to be seen to be doing something about the problem even if it won’t actually address the root causes of these price increases. Things are messy, and it’s going to take time for everything to work itself out, but what will really help is for Russia to get out of Ukraine.

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Roundup: A more modest budget than feared

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We are now somewhere around day forty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia’s retreat from Chernihiv has shown much more destruction in its wake. Given that Russia is re-positioning to the Donbas region, Ukraine is trying to maintain humanitarian corridors from the area, while pleading with NATO and other countries for yet more weapons to fight the Russian invaders. Meanwhile, RCMP officers in Canada are reaching out to Ukrainians who have made it here to gather evidence of Russian war crimes, so that it can be forwarded to The Hauge.

As for the budget, it was not the orgy of NDP-led spending that Candice Bergen and others had been hinting at, though it did increase spending somewhat, but that was largely offset by higher revenues thanks to the booming economy. The deficit is reducing rapidly, as is the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is the “fiscal anchor.” In fact, Bergen’s reaction speech was pretty much drafted with a very different budget in mind, and when called on this, she prevaricated. Jagmeet Singh, predictably, said there was enough in there for him to support (checklist here), but he still put on a show about criticising things he didn’t like, and the environmental provisions in particular.

https://twitter.com/AdamScotti/status/1512237421513125897

Some specifics:

  • Here are the $10 billion in housing measures the government is proposing, though some of those measures will do nothing for affordability.
  • The corporate tax rate is going up, and there is a special surcharge being levied against banks and insurance companies, as promised.
  • There is money allocated for dental care, but no details on the implementation mechanism, which is very important to have.
  • The $8 billion over five years in new defence spending won’t get us to the NATO two-percent goal, but a needed defence review is included.
  • There is some $500 million earmarked for more military aid for Ukraine, plus another $1 billion in loans to prop up their economy.
  • There is new money for cyber-security, much of it going to CSE.
  • Some $15 billion is earmarked for the creation of two new arms-length bodies to help with medium-and-long term growth.
  • There is $4.3 billion over seven years for Indigenous housing.
  • As expected, the tax credit for carbon capture and storage projects is drawing heat from environmental groups.
  • There is $3.7 million being earmarked for mental health services for Black civil servants (as they have a class action lawsuit underway).
  • There is some more money for arts organizations including the National Arts Centre.
  • Both the National Post and The Canadian Press have lists of smaller items in the budget that may have escape notice.

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QP: Counting down to the budget release

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The benches were fairly empty today, as many MPs were preparing for their budget reactions, leaving a reduced presence in the Chamber. After a moment of silence for both Portapique and the anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, Luc Berthold led off, worrying about a “secret trial” that took place in Quebec. David Lametti noted that the was concerned about the reports but prosecutions remain independent of government, and he couldn’t speak more about the issue due to proceedings underway. Berthold then switched to the budget, and was worried about reports that Jagmeet Singh received a briefing on its contents, and wondered if he was sworn to secrecy about it. Mark Holland assured him that no secret information was released. Berthold insisted that there must have been a briefing based on media comments, and worried that leaked details could affect the stock market, and Holland repeated that no secret briefings were had. Kyle Seeback took over in English to worry that carbon prices would mean higher food prices, and that both the environmental and economic policies were a failure. Steven Guilbeault read off investments the government has made and corrected him that emissions have gone down by 30 million tonnes. Seeback chuckled at his own lame joke about how government spending only drove housing prices up—missing a few of the steps to that logic—and Randy Boissonnault denounced the Conservatives delaying the vote on Bill C-8 and the supports therein.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and was outraged that the prime minister was chosen by the UN to promote sustainable development and an hour later approved Bay du Nord, insisting that this made Canada a rogue state. Guilbeault said he was confused by the Bloc being outraged over a provincial decision, a wondered if they wanted federal interference in the Third Link project in Quebec City. Therrien insisted that there was no place for new oil projects, for which Guilbeault reminded him of Yves-François Blanchet’s decision to approve drilling provincially when he as a minster in Quebec.

Alexandre Boulerice appeared for the NDP by video, and he too railed about the Bay du Nord approval. Guilbeault assured him that he read the IPCC report, and that the project was as low-carbon as possible. Laurel Collins repeated the condemnation in English, and Guilbeault repeated his response, and assurances that they would reduce Canada’s emissions by the level required in the report, and that the report did admit that fossil fuels would still be used.

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