Tag Archives: Israel

Roundup: Countdown to a trade deal?

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Even before the G7 summit officially got underway, prime minister Mark Carney had his bilateral meeting with Trump, and it was this somewhat awkward situation where Trump defended having a “tariff concept” and said that Carney had a “more complicated” plan (how could “free trade” be more complicated?”) but there was word that talks were “accelerating,” and later in the day, we got a readout from that conversation that said that they were aiming to get a trade deal within 30 days, so no pressure there (not that you could really accept such a deal for the paper it’s written on because this is Trump and he doesn’t honour his agreements). Trump also claimed to have signed a trade deal with the UK (which he called the EU at the time), and held up a blank page with his signature on it. So that…happened.

Holy crap. The US-UK trade deal is a blank sheet of paper and only Trump signed it. (Genuine screen grab).

— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) 2025-06-17T00:13:56.113Z

The rest of the summit took place, and then suddenly Trump decided he needed to leave early, right after the Heads of Government dinner, citing important business in Washington, with allusions to the Israel-Iran conflict, but he did wind up signing a joint communiqué that calls for de-escalation in said conflict, so we’ll see how that holds up. Trump leaving early does mean that he won’t be around the arrival of either Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, who had hoped to have bilateral meetings with Trump on the sidelines of the summit, so that does blow a hole in what they expected to come for, particularly for Sheinbaum who rarely travels.

Meanwhile, here are some of the highlights of the day. Tsuut’ina Nation council member Steven Crowchild spoke about his meeting with Trump during his arrival in Calgary. EU officials confirmed that Carney is likely to sign a defence procurement agreement with them during his visit to Brussels in two weeks.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-16T22:08:16.537Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone and missile attack struck Kyiv in the early morning hours, wounding at least twenty. Ukraine received another 1,245 bodies, ending this repatriation agreement, bringing the total to over 6000 war dead.

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Roundup: Countdown to the G7 summit

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It’s the run-up to the G7 summit on Monday and Tuesday, and it will start with dinner with UK prime minister Keir Starmer tonight, before everyone starts heading to Calgary, where Danielle Smith will be greeting delegates as they arrive for the G7, starting on Sunday, and will host an event with them. We already know that there will be some different features in this summit in that they will forgo the usual joint communiqué, but instead, Carney will put out a chair’s statement (because there is unlikely to be any kind of consensus to be had with Trump in the room).

Another question is about what some of the discussions will wind up being about, given the chaotic nature of what is happening right now, such as Israel and Iran attacking one another, while there are wildfires burning in Alberta, and the conflict in Ukraine has intensified after Ukraine destroyed a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The number of other non-G7 members invited to attend will also help shape the discussions, which includes Indian prime minister Narendra Modi (whose activities we are apparently overlooking for the sake of the conference), though it should also be noted that “bone saws” Mohammed bin Salman won’t be attending after all, despite being invited. Here is a rundown of the additional invitees to the summit.

Meanwhile, Canada and India have reached an agreement to share information about cross-border crimes, such as transnational crimes, syndicates, terrorism, and extremist activities. That makes the obvious question to be whether the Indian government will disclose its transnational repression and contracting of syndicates to carryout transnational crimes (like extrajudicial killings)? Or do they simply expect Canada to turn over information about the legal activities of Khalistani advocates in this country? Because if we’re not getting any of the former, I’m not sure what value this agreement really has as a “reset” of the relationship.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine and Russia had another swap of bodies of fallen soldiers yesterday.

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Roundup: The price of going around consultations

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As prime minister Mark Carney gets set to ram his major project legislation through Parliament—Henry VIII clause and all—a couple of philosophical questions are popping up about the nature of what it is they’re doing to speed through these approvals. Doug Ford is trying to do it by essentially creating lawless zones, whereas Carney is giving himself the power to override other laws through regulation alone, which is ripe for abuse and which the Liberals would be screaming bloody murder about if they were in opposition. (The Conservatives, incidentally, are not up in arms about this use of a Henry VIII clause). The thing is, though, these laws and regulations exist for a reason—they’re not there just to thwart investment or development (in spite of what the Conservatives might tell themselves), and you’re asking for trouble if you go around it.

Part of that trouble is Indigenous consultation, and what they seem to believe it entails. It’s not just a meeting where you sit down and go “Here’s what we want to do on your lands.” It’s way more complicated, especially as you have some particular First Nations that have been burned in the past by other developers who promised them all kinds of benefits for that development and then reneged on their agreements (often leaving an environmental catastrophe in their wakes that they won’t pay for, leaving these First Nations off even worse). And they are already talking about litigation if their rights are violated, and those rights include free, prior and informed consent. This is a big deal, and we’re not sure that either Carney or Ford have actually thought this through. Things take time—especially within First Nations. Carney may be in for an unpleasant surprise about his timelines.

[Mallory Archer voice]: Do you want litigation? Because that's how you get litigation.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-06-10T04:18:21.071Z

Meanwhile, oil prices have crashed to rock-bottom prices, meaning it will be even more unlikely that we’ll see companies willing to invest in new pipeline infrastructure, even if the Carney government thinks they can ram projects through in a two-year window (which, again, I remain dubious about). Danielle Smith is trying to entice a proponent for some sort of pipeline, but again, money talks. Those rock-bottom prices are also going to hit Alberta’s government hard, because they budgeted for much higher royalties, and that in turn will make Smith panicky and try to pick even more fights, all because she refuses to implement a sales tax that would avoid being dependent on oil revenues above a certain level to balance the books.

Ukraine Dispatch

It was another night of heavy drone attacks, with the hardest-hit area being Kharkiv, killing three people and a total of 64 wounded across the country. Ukraine says that they struck a large gunpower factory in Russia. Another prisoner swap was held yesterday, but it was less prisoners than 1212 bodies.

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Roundup: The Auditor General on F-35s and ArriveCan

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Yesterday saw the release of the Auditor General and Environment Commissioner’s reports, and lo, these ones actually got a tonne of media attention and took centre stage in Question Period, which is a far cry from most of their recent reports. The reason, of course, is that the topics were sexy—F-35 fighter jets and the ArriveCan app gong show in particular, the latter of which the Conservatives have been salivating over for three years now, which made the day pretty much insufferable as a result. But there was more than just those.

  • The F-35 procurement costs have ballooned because of delays, pilot shortages, infrastructure, and inflation but acknowledged the Canadian government has little control over most of these factors.
  • CBSA failed to follow procurement and security rules when it used GC Strategies to contract out work on ArriveCan, and didn’t follow-up to ensure work had been done before more contracts were awarded.
  • Public Services and Procurement has been slow to modernise and downsize office space, and turn over surplus buildings for housing.
  • Indigenous Services has failed to process Indian Act status applications within the required six-month timeline, with a backlog having grown to over 12,000 applications.
  • The climate adaptation plan is falling short, with only one of its three pillars in place and little connection between spending and results.

I’m not sure that the F-35 news is all that surprising, but it does actually work to either justify a potential move away from the platform, or to reflect increases in defence spending calculations. The GC Strategies findings are also not unexpected, but one thing the Conservatives have been failing to mention is that CBSA is an arms’-length agency, so ministers had no real say over any of its contracting practices (as the Conservatives try to insist that any minister who had carriage on the file should be fired). Meanwhile, their narrative that this was somehow about “Liberal friends” was never mentioned in the report, nor was there any mention about partisan considerations, or indication that the firm had any connection to the government, so these are just rage-bait accusations used solely for the performance art, which is how most things go with these guys.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-10T21:22:14.366Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Tuesday’s attack from Russia was one of its largest strikes on Kyiv, which also hit civilian targets in Odesa, and Kharkiv was subjected to a nine-minute-long drone attack that killed at least two and injured 54. Another prisoner swap took place yesterday, this time for an undisclosed number of sick and wounded soldiers.

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Roundup: The confidence vote that wasn’t

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Debate on the Address in Reply to the Speech From the Throne was due to wrap up, meaning a final vote. Media outlets insisted that this would be the first major confidence vote of the new Parliament, and that if the Liberals lost it, we could go back to an election, and there was all this building drama because of how they lost the vote on the Conservatives’ amendment (to “urge” the government to table a spring budget). And my headache started.

The vote on the Address in Reply is not automatically a confidence vote. It is if the opposition amendments explicitly state that they have no confidence in the government, and sometimes that happens because this is the first opportunity to test the confidence of the Chamber, especially in a minority parliament or legislature, but again, that was not the case here. But along the way, the NDP decided that they were going to play tough and declare that they would vote against it for specious reasons (and because Don Davies is an idiot, and has a long track record of being an idiot and a blowhard), while the Government House Leader, Steve MacKinnon, told reporters that this would be a confidence vote. So, if the government says it’s a confidence vote, it’s a confidence vote, and it was likely intended to be something of a bit a put-up-or-shut-up dare, which can be risky in a minority parliament, but sometimes you also need to play hardball with the opposition. This was likely going to mean that the Bloc would either vote in support or abstain (because they did say they would give the government a year before they started to seriously oppose anything, given the Trump situation), but the government was never in any serious danger of falling. If, by some fluke, they did lose a vote they declared to be confidence, they could simply hold another vote and basically say “Did you mean it?” and chances are they would win that vote, and all would go back to normal.

And in the end, there wasn’t even a vote. News of Marc Garneau’s death reached the Chamber just before the vote was to be taken, and it seems like the appetite for drama was gone, and it passed on division, meaning that they agreed to disagree, that they were going to let it pass, but not bother with a recorded vote. And thus, the least exciting outcome happened.

I must advise the beings of Bluesky that, in a truly only-in-this-particular-Canadian-parliament twist, the much-anticipated will-they-or-won't-they-trigger-an-election over it motion on the Throne speech as amended — has been adopted on division.

— Kady O'Malley (@kadyo.bsky.social) 2025-06-04T22:25:39.121Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-04T22:02:26.904Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck an apartment building in Kharkiv, injuring at least seventeen. Russian forces have also pushed further into Sumy region. Here’s a look at how Operation Spiderweb was carried out.

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QP: Counter-tariff concern-trolling

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The PM was away in Saskatoon, meeting with the premiers, while things got underway back in Ottawa. Even though Andrew Scheer was present, he didn’t lead off Question Period, and instead left that up to Kyle Seeback, and he worried that the prime minister ran on a platform of “elbows-up,” and promised to get $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs, but most of the counter-tariffs were “secretly” cancelled (not true), before he raised the prospect of higher steel and aluminium tariffs, and demanded to know how much the counter-tariffs would generate. François-Philippe Champagne promised to fight the unjust tariffs, and that they would build the Canada of tomorrow. Seeback complained that the Liberals don’t answer questions, and accused the prime minister of lying to steel workers. Mélanie Joly responded that she was in contact with industry leaders, and that they were in “solution mode” by promising to use Canadian steel and aluminium in major projects. Raquel Dancho took over and she too concern trolled about the dollar-for-dollar tariffs and demanded to know how much had been collected. Joly congratulated Dancho for being named her critic and said that no executive order has been signed yet. Dancho said that she could assume the figure was zero, and tried again while adding in the “punishing carbon tax” as a drain on business. Champagne insisted that they were defending workers and Canadian industry. Richard Martel took over in French to again demand to know how much in counter-tariffs have been collected, and Joly spoke about meeting with aluminium industry and union leaders over the weekend. Martel took some gratuitous swipes at Carney and said he talks out of both sides of his mouth, and Champagne insisted that they did not capitulate, and that they were standing up for industry and workers.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she claimed that the first ministers’ meeting was about forcing a “dirty oil pipeline” through Quebec. Joly pointed out the size of the Liberals’ Quebec caucus, and trotted out the lines about the standing up for industry workers. Normandin raised Carney’s meeting with oil and gas executives, and accused him of putting them first. Joly said that the job of the prime minister is to meet with everyone, and that right now they were focused on building, including high-speed rail. Mario Simard took over and repeated the same accusation, and Joly said that job creation was in the national interest. 

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Roundup: More provincial buck-passing, FCM edition

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The Federation of Canadian Municipalities had their big conference in Ottawa over the past couple of days, and there were a host of mayors and councillors on the Hill to meet with MPs. Yesterday afternoon, Mark Carney addressed their conference to basically give the same speech he’s been giving for the past couple of weeks about things like “moving to delay to delivery,” and so on. But I did find it interesting that as part of this address to the FCM, he essentially told them that he’ll be too busy with nation-building projects to reform municipal funding structures.

It’s kind of funny, but at the same time, I have to ask how that’s actually his job, or the job of the federal government at all. Cities are creatures of provincial legislation. If you want to reform their funding structures, the provinces need to sit down and hammer that out, unless you want to start amending the constitution, and I’m pretty sure that nobody wants to open that particular Pandora’s Box (which, incidentally, was not a box but a jar). We could let cities collect their own income or sales taxes, or other forms of financing that would be better than simply property taxes, but provinces refuse, and in some cases, have specifically legislated against it. And we’ve known for decades now that cities have funding challenges that they need something to be done about, but have provinces responded? Of course not. They simply demand the federal government send them more money.

With this in mind, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow was also here for the FCM meeting, and she says she is encouraged by Carney’s sense of urgency on tackling the housing crisis, but again, she too is here calling for the federal government to directly intervene with money. One thing she has proposed is for necessary infrastructure to build more housing, for the federal government to basically pay the municipality’s one-third share (so they essentially pay two-thirds and the province pay the other third), and it’s just so infuriating. The federal government is not the purse for every other jurisdiction. Provinces have the very same revenue-generating tools as the federal government does, but they refuse to use them because they would rather beg for money and let the federal government be the bad guy with their taxes than the province. This kind of absolute immaturity is just exhausting, and it’s one of the reasons why things just aren’t getting done in this country.

Or ever, if we're being honest.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-30T13:30:00.766Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s massive drone attack overnight Thursday injured two people in Kharkiv, and hit a town that sits on the border with Romania, which is a NATO member.

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Roundup: The new ambassador doesn’t get it

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The new US ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has been making the media rounds, and is just one more in a long line of American politicians who just can’t understand why Canadians are so upset with the Americans. (It’s a complete mystery!) Surely, we must be happy that we could have the “lowest tariffs of any country,” instead of, oh, the free trade that allowed for integrated supply chains between both countries. Why wouldn’t we be happy with that? And in a preview for an interview to be aired over the weekend, he says there are easier ways to send messages to Trump than to bring over the King.

*sighs*

Having the King open the next session of Parliament is not only about sending a message to Trump. Yes, that is part of it, and you can bet that it’s actually going to be something he pays more attention to than a phone call because his attention span only lasts as long as the next person who talks to him, so what good is a phone call in that regard? Also? This is as much about domestic reassurance as it is a message to Trump. As Trump has threatened us, we had a bunch of people wrongly believe that the King needed to act unilaterally and say something that might cause a diplomatic incident, and others actually believed that he personally invited Trump on the second state visit when no, that was at the behest of the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer. And no, he can’t say anything unilaterally, because that goes against what constitutional monarchy stands for, and why there was the Glorious Revolution in 1688. If anyone is to blame for Charles not speaking up on Canada’s behalf earlier, it was Justin Trudeau’s, because he very much liked to ignore the Crown as much as he possibly could (probably because it pulled the focus away from him).

Oh, and Hoekstra keeps saying that the “51st state” stuff is over, and that Trump isn’t saying it, and they have more important things to worry about. But he said it just two weeks ago, and do you actually think that anything is really over for Trump? He’s incredibly angry with his past self for signing the New NAFTA. And I get that Hoekstra needs to play this particular role, but come on. Demonstrate that you’ve paid the slightest bit of attention to Canada since you were named ambassador, and read the room.

https://bsky.app/profile/effinbirds.com/post/3lps2mm7mmf26

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia is claiming to have taken a settlement between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region.

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Roundup: Signing decision notes as performance art

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It was Mark Carney’s first Cabinet meeting yesterday after the election and the shuffle, and hoo boy, is there a lot to talk about, starting with the fact that Carney once again called the media into the Cabinet room so that they could film him signing a “decision note” about implementing his planned tax cut. This is pure theatre—essentially this note is to instruct the civil service to prepare the legislation that will make this happen, but having the media witnessing him signing a document is both very Trumpy, and also a continuation of Trudeau-era politics by comms exercise. It’s not how things work in our system, and this is a very bad sign about how they’re doing things “differently” from Trudeau.

I have to say, I'm really not a fan of this new performance art of calling the media into the Cabinet room so that Carney can sign a mysterious document in front of them, Trump-style.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-14T17:29:26.165Z

Oh, look, it's another "Decision Note." Glad that this is now a vehicle for policy performance.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-14T17:40:41.329Z

And then there was the gauntlet of ministers saying things unfiltered to the press, with no message discipline. On the one hand, it’s pretty glorious to finally have ministers unleashed. On the other hand, the kinds of trouble that they are inviting is exactly why iron-fisted message discipline has been implemented for the past two decades. First up was François-Philippe Champagne saying that there won’t be a budget tabled in the short spring sitting, but that there will be a “comprehensive” fall economic update. He could have articulated that there simply isn’t time for the civil service to put one together in those four weeks or to talk about how the private sector forecasts are pretty much unusable in the current trade war uncertainty, but he went on about the Speech from the Throne, because reasons.

New Secretary of State Wayne Long says that it sounds like government is going to be run “like a corporation,” and I cannot even. This kind of thinking never, ever works out in government because it doesn’t have a bottom line to deliver to shareholders—it has to do the things that companies won’t, and government is set up to be held to account, whereas corporations are explicitly set up in a way to limit accountability and liability.

There was Gregor Robertson who stumbled on his very first outing, saying that housing prices don’t need to come down and that more supply will make housing affordable—except the math on that one is that it would take 20 to 40 years to do so. This is a tightrope to walk because of the number of people who have their nest eggs in their home equity, but he’s going to have to do better than what he answered.

The Housing Minister suggested that home prices don't need to go down to restore affordability. We examined this, and it's technically true. They don't. However, in large parts of the country, it would take 20-40 years to reach affordability.Read here: www.missingmiddleini…

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-05-14T15:50:37.000Z

And Steven Guilbeault. Oh, boy. Guilbeault was asked about Carney’s comments around building more pipelines, and Guilbeault—whose new job is “Canadian identity” (and good luck to him on that Pandora’s box)—said that we should actually use our existing capacity for building more. And he’s right—but he got the current TMX values wrong. He also pointed out that both the Canadian Energy Regulator and the International Energy Agency have said that peak demand is going to happen is around 2028-29 (so it may not make sense to build a bunch of assets to be stranded), but man, did this go over like a lead balloon. And of course, Danielle Smith pounced on it, while every TV pundit declared that Guilbeault should have just shut up since it’s not his portfolio anymore. But he has a point—there are no pipeline projects waiting to go ahead, and there is no demonstrable market demand for more, so everyone is getting hot and bothered over a fantasy or a dead letter (such as Energy East), which absolutely nobody is asking for. We’re twisting ourselves into absolute knots over imaginary projects.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1922731670043517191

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1922722025291858017

Feds bought & built TMX. Complain about the cost but it’s operating. They delivered. This was supposed to be a bargain. Tidewater in exchange for meaningful reductions in GHGs.Has the oil industry delivered there? That’s the starting point for discussions about further pipelines. #ableg #cdnpoli

— Martin Z. Olszynski (@molszyns.bsky.social) 2025-05-15T00:21:34.144Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile killed three people in Sumy. President Zelenskyy looks to still be headed for Istanbul to continue to call Putin’s bluff on “peace talks”, and it looks like Trump won’t be there either.

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Roundup: The still-ten-percent “pause”

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Day eighteen, and the parties were trying to get their messages out while we were treated to yet another day of market turmoil as Trump “paused” his global tariffs, but actually kept them at ten percent across the board, except for China, for whom he raised them to 125 percent, and then applied the ten percent to Canada and Mexico, but then didn’t, and the other tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum still apply, and it was a headache the whole gods damned day.

Mark Carney was in Calgary, and he proclaimed his desire to make Canada an energy superpower (stop me if you’ve heard this before), but wait—he wants it to be with both clean and conventional energy. Some of the details were mighty similar to what the Conservatives proposed, but I will grant that there was more of an emphasis on working with provinces and First Nations around Projects of National Interest, but again, I suspect their timelines are incredibly optimistic. Carney then headed to Saskatoon for a rally. He’ll start the day in Brampton, and head to Hamilton from there.

NEW: At a campaign rally in Calgary today Liberal leader Mark Carney spoke publically about queer and trans issues for the first time in this campaign, saying that these rights are “fundamental.” #cdnpoli

— Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2025-04-09T17:52:15.459Z

Pierre Poilievre was in Sault Ste. Marie, and vowed to crack down on repeat crime with a “three-strikes” law which is a) unconstitutional, and b) failed spectacularly in the States, where it actually increased the murder rate. They also put out a press release stating that they would end “Carney’s crime wave,” which is so stupid that we all lost IQ points reading that. During the same stop, Poilievre also claimed that the industrial carbon price will drive steel production to the US, which simply isn’t true. Poilievre will start the day in Milton, Ontario, and then head to Woolwich, Ontario.

Jagmeet Singh was in Vancouver, where he promised to finish the job of universal pharmacare within four years, and good luck to him on that with both getting provinces to sign on, and to negotiate a national formulary in that timeframe. I suspect this is another job for that Green Lantern Ring that Singh thinks is hiding in the PMO. Singh then headed to Saskatoon in the evening. Singh remains in Saskatoon for the day.

In other campaign news, here is a look at how Poilievre is shifting his attacks against Carney. Here’s a look at how climate change has been taken off the agenda as a front-of-mind issue.

Abso-fucking-lutely

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-10T00:47:25.276Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Kyiv in the early morning, and one person was trapped in a collapsed house. Ukraine’s military chief says that Russia has launched a new offensive in the country’s northeast. Ukraine’s state railway suffered a major cyber-attack and has only restored about half of its IT services. President Zelenskyy says that their intelligence shows some 155 Chinese citizens fighting for the Russian military.

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