Tag Archives: Justin Trudeau

Roundup: No, that’s not how inflation works

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Because some of you at the back still don’t get it, no, carbon pricing does not contribute 16 percent of inflation. It contributes 0.15 percent, because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and when the increase is steady and holding, the actual impact on inflation is negligible, because that’s how inflation works. But several of you you keep insisting that your math is correct when it’s not, and so here’s economist Trevor Tombe to try and get it through to you:

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1720919364172697678

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian missiles struck a shipyard in occupied Crimea, damaging a Russian warship there. There are conflicting reports about the state of the counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russia claims they have halted any advance, while Ukrainians say that they continue to advance, albeit slowly. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes back against the notion that they have entered into a stalemate, and says they need more air defences so that Russia can no longer dominate the skies. Here’s a look at Ukrainian soldiers who have turned to jiu-jitsu after losing limbs in the war.

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Roundup: Paying too much attention to one senator’s opinion

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Sometimes the way the media cycle operates in weird ways in this city, and yesterday was no exception. On Wednesday, Senator Percy Downe wrote an op-ed that said that the Liberal Party should be having discussions as to whether they think Justin Trudeau should lead them into the next election, and a few people started frothing about it, but a day later, it got particular traction because Pierre Poilievre was using it in Question Period to attack Trudeau, as though Downe was a big name or had a network that was significant.

And that’s the part that mystifies me. Once upon a time, Downe was a chief of staff to Jean Chrétien, but senators haven’t been part of the Liberal caucus since 2014, when Trudeau famously expelled them as pre-emptive damage control in advance of the Auditor General’s (massively flawed) report on the Senate’s expenses, and claimed it was to give them more independence. Furthermore, Downe jumped ship to the fledgeling Canadian Senators Group right after he helped the Senate Liberals transform their caucus into the Progressives, which alienated him from the remaining Liberals in the Senate (who no longer call themselves such in the current environment). I fail to see how he has any kind of sway or influence at all. And when Trudeau was asked about Downe’s comments on his way into Question Period yesterday, he gave a classic “I wish him well” response and laughed it off.

Meanwhile, the attempt to make Mark Carney happen aren’t stopping either, as the Globe and Mail cornered him a climate summit in town this week to demand to know his leadership ambitions and *gasp!* he didn’t say no! Let’s gossip about this more! Never mind that Carney would likely mean the second coming of Michael Ignatieff for the party, if you ignore that he has no political machinery around him that could even support a bid (which he should avoid at all costs because it damages the Bank of Canada and its current governor, whether he likes to believe it or not). But seriously, this whole thing is ridiculous, and I cannot believe how much air time and digital space has been used up on it.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian drones have hit civilian targets in Kharkiv region, but no reports of casualties as of when I’m writing this. Ukrainian forces repelled a new Russian assault on Vuhledar in the east.

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Roundup: A “pause” on carbon prices that hands Poilievre a victory

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau announced yesterday afternoon that the federal government would be implementing a “pause” for three years on the carbon price on home heating oil, predominantly used in Atlantic Canada, because he’s in some serious electoral trouble in the region. He also said that enriched carbon price rebates for rural dwellers would be on the way, as well as more incentives for people to switch to heat pumps. The problem? This undermines the whole carbon price scheme, ensures that it no longer is in compliance with the rules that they established, and it hands a propaganda victory to the Conservatives who are crowing that this “proves” that the price is making life unaffordable, and that they’ll kill it outright.

This also handed ammunition to Danielle Smith and Scott Moe, who will now be demanding that natural gas for heating be exempted, because now the programme is explicitly unfair. They’re not wrong, even if they’re acting entirely in bad faith over it. The NDP have joined in, also insisting that all home heating should be exempt from the price, which further undermines it. And you’d better believe that there are problems around the implementation of the heat pump programme, particularly how it rolls out to low-income households who need it the most.

The most galling thing of all, however, is that this is a victory for Irving Oil (and enabled by the provincial price regulators). They deceptively increased prices on their home heating oil and said this was for the “clean fuel standard,” which is bullshit. That standard is not a price—it’s an emissions standard that comes into place gradually, and any increased costs would be what the refineries need to do to meet those standards. This, however, wasn’t well communicated by the government, and of course the narrative got swallowed by the Conservatives calling it “Carbon Tax 2” and a poorly done report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer who framed this like it was a price, and so Irving was able to act in the way it did. And because it’s Irving, and they are more powerful than any of the provincial governments in Atlantic Canada (which is an enormous problem in a democracy), nobody challenged them on this deceptive price increase, and they successfully jammed the federal government into undermining the carbon price, so now it can be picked away at until it’s well and truly dead. Well done, everyone. You’ve just screwed yourselves, your credibility, and ultimately the planet. Slow clap.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Wednesday’s drone attack near the nuclear power plant in Khmelnitskyi region was likely targeted. Ukrainian officials say the Black Sea corridor is working, particularly now that they’ve chased away the Russian Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea. Ukrainian businesses are preparing for the possibility of another winter of attacks on the power grid.

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Roundup: More both-sidesing Smith’s mendacity

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Because this is occasionally a media criticism blog, I found myself somewhat gobsmacked by the way in which The Canadian Press has written up the pushback against some of Danielle Smith’s ridiculous accusations against the federal clean electricity regulations. She has been panned by experts for weeks, but how does CP frame this? With statements by a Liberal MP in Calgary, George Chahal.

“The fuse is lit for fireworks in Ottawa after a Liberal member of Parliament accused Alberta Premier Danielle Smith of making false claims days before Smith is slated to appear before a federal environmental committee,” is the lead, and the piece proceeds to methodically both-sides this to death. It’s Chahal-said about Smith’s batshit crazy things she’s claiming about these regulations, like how this is going to mean blackouts and energy company executives being hauled off to jail, versus statements from Alberta’s energy minister, who in turn accuses the federal government of misinformation. There is no third-party expert weighing in, it’s simply the two sides, and the reader is supposed to determine whom they feel is more credible based on a handful of quotes. Come on.

We are in the middle of a misinformation and disinformation crisis in the Western world, and legacy media—of which a wire service like CP is a foundational element of—cannot arse themselves to do some basic gods damned due diligence and provide evidence that Smith and her ludicrous allegations are nothing more than mendacity for the sole purpose of rage-farming and stoking anger against the federal government (because that works so well in Alberta). There are ways to call out lies in a fair and transparent manner, but there was absolutely zero attempt her, and that just lets lies fester in the open, which is why leaders like Smith and Pierre Poilievre (as Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole before him) have all learned from, that it means they suffer no consequences for their lies, because nobody calls them out—just other partisan actors who can be dismissed as such. We’re playing with fire when it comes to the health of our democracy, but nobody seems to care, and that’s a very big problem.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian drones have attacked Danube port infrastructure in the Odesa region once again. Ukraine’s intelligence service has accused two villagers who fled to Russia of helping guide the missile strike on the village of Hroza that killed 55 people last week. Ukraine’s prime minister says they need $42 billion in budget support this year and next to help aid reconstruction. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Brussels to meet with military leaders and to impress upon them the importance of keeping up aid to Ukraine, and not to get distracted by the outbreak of hostilities in Israel—NATO leaders have pledged ongoing support.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1712119948749717958

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QP: An apology, but apparently not the right apology

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The prime minister gave the media a warning that he would be offering a public apology in the House of Commons for Friday’s incident, as had been demanded over the past several days, as this was his first day back in the Chamber since it happened. Deputy Speaker Chris d’Entrement was back in the big chair, and he started off with a mild admonishment about some of the charged language used yesterday, but didn’t demand an apology for it. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and declared that it was the prime minister’s personal responsibility for inviting Zelenskyy to Parliament, and insisted that his office should have vetted everyone in the Chamber—which is absolutely absurd. Trudeau got up and read that he apologised sincerely for what happened on Friday, and that it was terrible that the person received applauses in the Chamber. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the same misleading question, and Trudeau read the English version of the same apology script, but when he read that he apologised on behalf of everyone in the House, the Conservative benches objected to it not being on his behalf alone. Poilievre demanded to know if everyone was vetted by his office that day, and Trudeau rightfully stated that doing so would be a grievous violation of Parliament’s sacred privileges. Poilievre played outrage that this was some apparent violation, conflating security and political risk. Trudeau insisted that the facts were well known, and that this was entirely the outgoing Speaker’s responsibility, and that the opposition is misleading to score points. Poilievre again repeated the falsehood that PMO should have vetted everyone, and accused Trudeau of “hiding in his cottage” for three days. Trudeau stated that Poilievre has defended Parliament’s privileges before, and how he’s pretending that PMO should have some kind of oversight over the Speaker.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and asked if he has called Zelenskyy and if he has a strategy to combat Russian propaganda. Trudeau mouthed some pabulum about propaganda and defending Ukraine, but didn’t really answer the question. Blanchet took from the answer that he hadn’t called Zelenskyy and repeated the question. Trudeau said that they had sent several direct messages, before condemning Russia’s invasion.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he declared that “real damage” had been done by the incident on Friday, and wanted “concrete action” on cleaning up the mess. Trudeau recited that they stand with Ukraine, for as long as it takes. Singh repeated his same question in French, and Trudeau repeated his same response. 

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Roundup: The credible intelligence gets a lot weightier

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At the UN General Assembly, prime minister Justin Trudeau reiterated what he said about credible intelligence pointing to Indian agents responsible for the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, and said that he is calling on India to help with the investigation. But what we have since learned is that the credible intelligence includes both human sources and signals intelligence from Five Eyes allies that includes Indian diplomats’ communications, and that is certainly lending a lot more heft to these allegations—on top of the fact that the director of CSIS and the National Security Advisory made trips to India to deal with government sources there, and sources are saying that behind closed doors, the Indian government isn’t denying the existence of this intelligence. That’s a pretty big deal, particularly as members of the Pundit Class in this country are trying to insinuate that this is really about Trudeau ginning up controversy to create a distraction (which doesn’t follow this government’s pattern at all).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1705084748823961930

In the meantime, India has stopped processing travel visas from Canada under the transparently ludicrous excuse that their facilities face security threats, which affects a lot of people here hoping to visit family. Trudeau didn’t say if he would respond in kind, but it seems unlikely if he is serious about saying he’s not trying to provoke or escalate this with India, but to actually get to the bottom of this. (The fact that India doesn’t want to cooperate in public does appear to be something of a tell).

Zelenskyy Visit

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy landed in Ottawa last night. He will be visiting Governor General Mary May Simon this morning, followed by a visit to Parliament Hill, where he will be greeted my parliamentarians in advance of an address to Parliament that will take place around 1 PM Eastern.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1705081288808403189

Ukraine Dispatch:

While president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Washington, Russian forces pounded more Ukrainian cities, with more deaths being reported in the southern city of Kherson. There has been more shelling of Kherson early this morning. Here is a look at the Ukrainian soldiers fighting their way back to reclaiming Bakhmut.

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Roundup: “Credible allegations” of an assassination on Canadian soil

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It was an unexpected moment after Question Period, when Justin Trudeau returned to the House of Commons, and took advantage of the Statements by Ministers slot in Routine Proceedings to speak on an issue of “national security,” and revealed that credible intelligence from Canadian agencies has found that an agent of the Indian government was likely responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader in British Columbia several months ago. Other opposition leaders expressed their shock, and support for the government in this—being unusually less dickish than usual (until they denied Elizabeth May her own opportunity to speak—the dickishness resumed at that point). It also sounds like the timing of this announcement was earlier than anticipated—the Globe and Mail got a leak and went to confirm it with the government, and were asked if they could hold off publishing for a week, and the Globe said they had 24 hours, so Trudeau was forced to do this now, and not after he returned from the UN General Assembly.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703856088238416330

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703879668842016904

Shortly thereafter, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc scrummed in the Foyer and said that a high-ranking Indian diplomat was expelled from the country, and it sounds like the government is considering further measures in the near future. It also sounds like this was being discussed at the G20 meeting in India last week, as both the head of CSIS and Trudeau’s National Security Advisor were on the trip, and suddenly the frostiness with Narendra Modi and the cancelled trade mission make so much more sense, being as this was being pursued in back channels during the summit, not only with Indian officials but also with allied countries including the US and the UK.

For background, here is what we know about the victim, and the timeline of events surrounding the murder. India, predictably, refutes this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

There have been Russian attacks on both Lviv in the west and Kherson in the south. Ukrainian forces say they breached Russian lines near Bakhmut in the east, and have reclaimed two more villages. Six deputy defence ministers were fired, possibly in relation to a corruption scandal.

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Roundup: Not a corporate workplace

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Parliament is back today, and while I would normally be fairly excited, it’s feeling less and less so these days, because this current parliament is a fairly terrible one overall, that feels increasingly toxic to be around. But hey, maybe we’ll actually talk about housing and food price inflation, and some things that matter! But who am I kidding—it’ll be a bunch of complete bullshit coming from Pierre Poilievre, some non sequiturs from Jagmeet Singh about “greedflation” and the like, while Justin Trudeua and his front bench will repetitively deliver some canned pabulum that is supposed to make you feel vaguely reassured and like they’re patting you on the head. Because that’s the state of the political discourse these days, and I hate it.

As with anything this time of year, we’re also getting the usual calls about ways to “reform the workplace” of Parliament, as though this were a corporate office and that MPs are all just middle managers. They’re not, and that’s the problem with framing discussions like this. They’re all elected. They are all equal under the constitution, and in the framework of power dynamics. You can’t impose HR standards because you can’t involve an HR structure like this because power is entirely horizontal.

The other thing that we need remember here, however, is that MPs need to divorce Question Period—which is theatre—from the every day, and I see a lot of that in these complaints, and it goes around and around. Why do people do it and get away with it? Because it’s performance, and it’s confrontational for a reason. Heckling has a place, and some of that is to knock MPs and ministers off of their talking points. And that’s why I have a hard time qualifying all of it as “bullying” or “intimidation” because while that does happen, QP is a different beast and we all need to remember that. We also need the Speaker to do his gods damned job, but that’s also the fault of MPs for consistently choosing weak Speakers and ensuring that he has weak Standing Orders to enforce, because they like it that way.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles have again hit the grain port at Odessa, while another strike at Kharkiv was allegedly targeting a plant where armoured vehicles undergo repairs. Ukrainian forces have apparently carried out a “special operation” in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, and reclaimed another village near Bakhmut. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian farmer was killed when his plough hit a landmine, while Norway is reporting that the number of Russian forces staged along their borders are now just twenty percent or less than what they were before Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Roundup: Some long-awaited policy announcements

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The Liberals finally came out yesterday with a suite of policy announcements at the end of their caucus retreat, with a bunch of measures that some have been calling on for a while. Removing the GST on purpose-built rentals was actually an idea they ran on in 2015 then didn’t implement after further study (credit to Rachel Aiello for finding that), but have now gone ahead with in light of all of the calls to do so. As well, a number of people were treating the warnings to municipalities about not getting Housing Accelerator Fund dollars if they continued exclusionary zoning as though it were new, when it was part of the policy design in the 2021 platform all along.

One of the more interesting announcements was around upcoming changes to the Competition Act, but while Jagmeet Singh will take credit for it, the government has been consulting on this for over a year. The big news is the proposed elimination of the “efficiencies defence,” which would be a sea change in Canadian competition law.

There were also warnings to the grocery oligopolies that they have until Thanksgiving to stabilise prices (meaning return them to the headline rate of inflation), but I have a hard time seeing how this is going to work considering that the bulk of price increases are because of supply issue, such as yields being reduced for climate-related droughts or floods. Margins have been consistent throughout, so this policy is going to need a lot more finessing, and the price issues related to a lack of competition in the sector is going to be as difficult to fix as the supply issues. They also said they would extend the loan repayment period for CEBA loans after an outcry, btu extending the deadline for most means forgoing the partial forgiveness portion, meaning they will have more to repay.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian shelling killed a six-year-old boy in the village of Novodmytrivka in the southern Kherson region. Ukrainian forces have retaken the village of Andriivka in the east, as they continue to press on toward Bakhmut.

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Roundup: Long on speeches and imported culture wars

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The Conservative convention this weekend was long on speeches—Poilievre’s speech very much needing an editor as it went on for well over an hour—and was full of praise for the so-called convoy occupiers (from Poilievre’s wife as well as the wife of the “anti-woke general”). Said “anti-woke general” proved himself to be so fragile that he thinks that things like racial equality and gender equality are “destroying” Canada. There was also the Brexiteer from the House of Lords who also showered Poilievre with praise, so some real talent on display there.

Policy resolutions were not focused on things like housing or affordability, but instead prioritised things like vaccines, and culture war bullshit that extended to two separate resolutions attacking trans people (which the party could have used mechanisms to de-prioritise but didn’t, meaning they wanted them to come up for a vote). The Canadian Press has compiled five take-aways from the convention.

https://twitter.com/dalybeauty/status/1700974631468052754

In pundit reaction, Althia Raj looks at how the Conservatives used their convention to woo Quebeckers, and how they are going after the Bloc along the way. Aaron Wherry notes that claims of “common sense” are easier said than done, particularly as Poilievre painted an idyllic 1950s picture of the future he wants. Shannon Proudfoot hones in on the feeling of “enough” that permeated the convention, and the swinging of the pendulum, but also cautioned about who limiting that can be.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces staged early-morning drone attacks against Kyiv on Sunday. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the counter-offensive has made more advances along the southern front, as well as near Bakhmut in the east.

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