Tag Archives: Parliamentary Budget Officer

Roundup: The PBO has opinions to share

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The Parliamentary Budget Officer appeared at the Senate finance committee this week, and seems to have unloaded a litany of complaints about the government. I’m just not sure that the things he was complaining about were actually his purview to do so. You see, in spite of the media terming him a “fiscal watchdog” or a “budget watchdog,” he’s not actually a watchdog of any kind. He has no authority to be opining on how government is operating their programs, because that’s the Auditor General’s job. His job is to provide analysis of macro-economic and fiscal policy, and promoting greater budget transparency. I’m not sure how any of what he said at the Senate had to do with that.

One of things in particular that is of concern is his attack on the CRA around recovery of possible CERB and CEWS overpayments, and the fact that they said it wasn’t worth it to go after every possible overpayment. The way Yves Giroux describes this however was that they weren’t going to follow up on any of it, which isn’t what they said. Additionally, I find it really interesting the way that absolutely everyone is just taking the Auditor General’s word that it’s $15.5 billion in potential wage subsidy overpayments because the CRA says that her methodology for arriving at that figure was flawed, and that it’s not nearly that high. Ah, but in this country, we worship the Auditor General and believe her to be a flawless entity from a higher plane of existence who is infallible. That’s not actually true, but nobody is ever willing to stick their necks out to dispute her figures, and to push back when she’s wrong, which she very well could be this time. The fact that nobody is willing to challenge those figures, including the PBO, is concerning (and frankly, given how much he enjoys inserting himself into other spaces where he doesn’t belong, it’s difficult to see why he didn’t do so here as well).

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 351:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited London and Paris to make his plea for more weapons, and most especially fighter jets. He’s off to Brussels today to continue his pleas to EU leaders. Zelenskyy also seems to be disputing accounts that he is shuffling his defence minister, so we’ll see what happens.

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QP: Taking personal responsibility

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In the aftermath of the prime minister’s meeting with the premiers, and after a moment of silence for the bus crash in the daycare in Laval, things got underway. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he raised the daycare collision, and offered support and prayers for the families, and asked for an update from the federal government. Justin Trudeau echoed the sentiments, pledging support, and offering thanks to first responders. Poilievre then got back to his usual attacks, blaming the prime minister for people needing to have $1.7 million in savings to retire, and demanded the prime minister take “personal responsibility” for inflation. Trudeau noted that while some seniors face difficult situations, the government increased their benefits and listed a number of programmes. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the same question, and Trudeau said it was “ironic” that Poilievre talks about fixing things when they needed to reverse Conservative cuts when they took power, and listed more programmes for seniors. Poilievre blamed the prime minister for rent increases and for heating bills (what global oil prices) and mortgage prices, and demanded the prime minister admit he broke things so that they can fix them. Trudeau listed support programmes for low-income people and seniors, and reminded him that the Conservatives nickel-and-dimed seniors and veterans, and said he was surprised that Conservatives voted against affordability measures. Poilievre then accused the PM of banning anyone from saying that the country is broken, and yet “his own” parliamentary budget officer said that things were broken, and he wondered if the prime minister would call him to try carpet to explain himself. Trudeau said that there is always more work to do, and cited his new funding for healthcare as proof.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and first needled the prime minister on the divisions in his caucus over the official languages bill before complaining that the health care deal was woefully insufficient. Trudeau recited his points about the funds and what they hope to achieve. Blanchet accused the government of indexing underfunding, and Trudeau again recited what Canadians need around doctors and mental health service, which is why they were improving the situation in partnership with provinces.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and accused the government of not putting his foot down on more privatisation and that Doug Ford said that it didn’t come up. Trudeau said that Singh was misinformed and that the first thing he raised was the public system and the Canada Health Act. Singh repeated the question again in French, and Trudeau repeated his answer in French.

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Roundup: Say no to a Consultant Commissioner

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Because a lot of people continue to be wringing their hands over government contracts to outside consultants, we’re starting to hear a few…less than stellar ideas. One of them came from Paul Wells yesterday, while on the CBC’s Front Burner podcast (Wells’ portion starts at 20:46). While there is some good context from Carleton University professor Amanda Clarke on the size of the problem (thread here), Wells is wrong about two particular portions, and he would have avoided this had he listened to my conversation with professor Jennifer Robson on my YouTube channel last week.

The first is the notion that when these consultants’ job is done, nobody is accountable for the work because most of their agreements mean that it can’t be subject to Access to Information rules, which is wrong. Fundamentally the minister is accountable no matter what. It wouldn’t matter if the work was done by outside consultants or the civil servants in the department, the minister remains responsible, and people seem to be forgetting this in their rush to condemn the consultants. The other part where he’s wrong is his idea to create a “consultant commissioner of Parliament” or other such independent officer.

No. Absolutely not.

We already have way too many gods damned independent officers of parliament, who are unaccountable, and to whom MPs have completely abandoned their constitutional responsibilities of oversight. Sure, the media and the opposition want someone independent they can quote on command to say mean things about the government, but that winds up just creating more bureaucracy, and doesn’t help the overall situation, especially as it drags us further down the road to technocracy rather than parliamentary oversight. The absolute last thing we need are more independent officers, and I wish to gods people would stop proposing them.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 335:

Russian forces have continued to pound the Donetsk region in the country’s east. Russians are also claiming Ukrainians are storing Western weapons in the country’s nuclear power plants, but have provided no proof. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is promising personnel changes at both senior and lower levels after high-profile graft allegations, as part of the country’s attempt to clean up its corruption problem.

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Roundup: Danielle Smith will threaten your funding

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Danielle Smith’s Alberta is a place where Smith and her ministers will phone you up and threaten your funding if you have mask or vaccine mandates, it was revealed yesterday. Smith threatened funding for the Arctic Winter Games, and has been phoning film productions to threaten them if they have mandates, because of course she is. It’s an abusive, arbitrary exercise of power that is imposing conditions on these groups or productions that don’t have these obligations in their written agreements, but it’s not like she cares about things like legalities.

It was also revealed that she isn’t moving ahead with her plan to add protection for the unvaccinated in the province’s human rights legislation, and is instead going to focus on her so-called “Sovereignty Act,” but rumour is that it’s going to be something like “Sovereignty Within a United Canada” or some other similar bullshit to make it look like it’s not a full-on separatist movement that will spook investment, not that doing arbitrary things like phoning you up and threatening your funding will make anyone feel like they want to continue doing business in the province. I’m almost surprised that her caucus isn’t revolting already considering the absolute abuse of power on display.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 279:

Ongoing Russian strikes and power disruptions as a result are making it difficult for hospitals in Ukraine to carry out their work, and at times, surgeries are being performed with headlamps and flashlights. The US is expected to announce aid that will help with the restoration of electricity around the country. Meanwhile, 30 settlements in the Kherson region have been shelled 258 times in the past week, and Russia has kept up shelling at Bakhmut and Avdiivka in Donetsk province as they try to make gains there.

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QP: Directly quoting selectively from the PBO

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The prime minister was present once again, while his deputy was busy testifying at the public inquiry. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about deficits causing inflation (which they’re not), and demanded a course correction. Justin Trudeau reminded him that they were there for Canadians during the pandemic in order to ensure it was less severe than other places on the world, and that our economy bounced back faster, and insisted that the Conservatives only want to cut. Poilievre switched to English to denounce alleged comments from Seamus O’Regan, and demanded they cut the carbon price. Trudeau dismissed the concern as twisting the words of minister, and pointed to the PBO report on the carbon price and how it helps eight out of ten families. Poilievre picked up that report and cited several numbers out of context to “prove” his talking points. Trudeau, looking rather pleased, insisted that Poilievre did not look at the section about the rebates, and called him out about not caring about climate change. Poilievre insisted that the rebates were “tiny” and didn’t cover costs—and was called out by the Speaker for using the report as a prop—and Poilievre went on a tear about how the price is ineffective and hurts people. Trudeau disputed that the rebates were tiny, and noted the other benefits they have delivered, noting that Poilievre is only playing rhetorical games. Poilievre tried to bring up the cost of the hotel for the Queen’s funeral and insisted that the report proved that people are being hit hard. Trudeau countered that the report shows that the rebates compensate most families more than they pay, because fighting climate change is important while Poilievre only wants to nickel-and-dime them.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he returned to the alleged contradictions in the reports about the Xi Jinping confrontation and demanded a return to the per-vote subsidy to prevent foreign funding. Trudeau clapped back that the Bloc only want the subsidy because they can’t raise money on their own. Therrien was incensed, and insisted that China was exploiting this vulnerability, and Trudeau countered that political financing is robust and transparent, and pointed out that the media are invited to his fundraising events, and encouraged other parties to do the same.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and decried the crisis in emergency rooms and demanded the federal government show up. Trudeau took exception to the insinuation he doesn’t care about children, and pointed out that they have transferred billions to provinces and are sitting down with provinces. Singh switched to French to repeat the question and got the same response.

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Roundup: The fiscal stance is tight

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The Parliamentary Budget Officer was doing his actual job of providing alternative fiscal forecasts for Parliamentarians, and his projection of the economic situation is that growth will slow over the second half of this year, which isn’t a bad thing because it will help to tackle inflation, particularly as the Bank of Canada continues to raise rates. The deficit continues to shrink, as does the federal debt-to-GDP ratio, which shows our fiscal stance is not too loose.

Here’s economist Kevin Milligan putting things into more context, but the bottom line is that the Conservatives’ assertion that government spending is fuelling inflation is not true, and they need to come up with some more credible talking points. (Yeah, yeah, good luck with that one, I know).

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Ukraine Dispatch, Day 232:

It was another day of Russian strikes against civilian targets, including by Iranian-built kamikaze drones, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to request more air defence systems to protect the country. Ukrainian forces boasted that they took down four Russian helicopters in the space of eighteen minutes.

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Roundup: Fiscally sustainable, in spite of the narratives

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It’s now day one-hundred-and-fifty-six of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and they have started shelling the Kyiv area once again for the first time in weeks. Russians are also pounding the northern Chernihiv region, which observers are linking to the Day of Statehood celebrations—something that president Volodymyr Zelenskyy instituted last year to remind the country of their history as an independent state, and was celebrated for the first time earlier this week. Meanwhile, Ukrainian counter-attacks in the south have virtually cut-off the Russian forces in Kherson and have left their forces near the Dnipro River “highly vulnerable,” as Russians shift forces from the east to the south, putting them from an attack posture to a defensive one.

Closer to home, the Parliamentary Budget Officer has declared that Canada’s fiscal outlook is sustainable in the long term, even if some of the provinces’ outlooks are not. This amidst weeks and months of wailing and gnashing of teeth that the current government has spent us into oblivion (they haven’t) and that they have saddled future generations with so much debt (again, they haven’t, and that’s not how government debt works), and that this is fuelling inflation (it’s not). Anyway, here is economist Kevin Milligan to walk us through the report:

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Programming Note: I am taking the next week-ish off while I have the chance. Loonie Politics columns will continue in the interim, but otherwise expect to see me back in the second week of August. Thanks everyone!

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Roundup: Unchecked officers want unchecked financing

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It is now on or about day sixty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there has been a crackdown on “traitors” in the country who have been helping Russian forces, sometimes to their own regret later on. Some 400 people have bene detained in the Kharkiv region under anti-collaboration laws, and because of martial law, due process is not always being followed. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s wife, Olena Zelenska, says the war has not changed her husband, but has revealed his determination to prevail, and that he’s someone you can rely on. Elsewhere in Europe, a pipeline between Greece and Bulgaria that was built over the pandemic is getting ready to come online, which will help relieve the situation of Russia cutting off gas to that country.

Closer to home, I read with interest this piece by Kathryn May about the various independent officers of Parliament trying to establish a funding mechanism for their offices that essentially bypasses government, in the name of “independence.” I am dubious, because as it stands, these officers already have no accountability, and their asking to remove what few mechanisms that either parliament or the government can rein them in is worrying. We have seen how New Brunswick’s particular independent officers are trying to organise the ability so that they can essentially write their own enabling legislation (the column I wrote on this is here), which one has little doubt that the ones in Ottawa are eying with particular interest because they will want to do the same, because “independence.”

As I note in the column, these officers have moved away from their intended goal of serving Parliament and expanding the investigative capacity of MPs and using their expertise to assist with legislation and government programmes, and have instead become external bodies that rely on public opinion to mount pressure on Cabinet to act. This diminishes Parliament rather than enhances it, and it’s one reason why I really do not think it’s wise to allow these officers to accumulate any more unchecked power—especially as they have entranced the media, who not only venerate them, but refuse to believe they can be at fault, which is again a problem because it means that what these officers say is repeated uncritically, no matter how problematic some of it is (looking at you most especially, PBO). We have a problem with our independent officers, but we refuse to admit it.

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QP: The pre-budget questions have started in earnest

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It was a very unusual Wednesday in that most leaders were once again absent—the prime minister was off at the Williams Lake First Nation, missing his self-imposed Wednesday PMQs for the second week in a row, and missing from QP for over a week now; his deputy was also absent. Candice Bergen has been absent for days (and there has been some chatter that her husband tested positive for COVID), as has Yves-François Blanchet. As well, somewhat unusually for a Wednesday, the benches were emptier than they typically are. And possibly worth noting, Speaker Rota remains away, and his deputy, Chris d’Entremont remains in the big chair. Luc Berthold led off, and lamented that they have a date for the first “NDP budget,” which merited him applause from the NDP benches, and he decried what it would represent. Randy Boissonnault stood up to insist that the Conservatives were talking down the economy, and he recited StatsCan data on GDP growth. Berthold quoted Jean Chrétien about deficits, as though it were still 1995, and Boissonnault made a plea to pass Bill C-8 to buy more rapid tests. Berthold accused Chrystia Freeland of selling her soul for a majority, and Boissonnault listed measures they have taken for Canadians. Dan Albas took over in English to decry inflation and a measure around housing, for which Ahmed Hussen dismissed the concerns as the Conservatives did nothing for affordable housing. Albas spouted a few misleading things about what the Bank of Canada Governor and the Parliamentary Budget Officer said about carbon prices, demanding they not increase, and Randy Boissonnault recited that the carbon rebates were progressive and most will get back more than they pay.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the policy that seniors aged 75 and older age getting a top-up rather than all seniors, wondering if this was a Conservative or NDP decision, and Darren Fisher responded with a few points about how affordability gets tougher for older seniors. Therrien insisted that inflation meant they were abandoning seniors, and Fisher read some talking points about measures they have taken for seniors to date.

Jagmeet Singh rose in person for the NDP, and accused the government of siding with banks over people. Boissonnault said that while they understand the sentiment of the NDP’s failed supply day notion, they have taken action on taxing the wealthiest. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same answer.

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QP: Unhappy with the new emissions plan

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With Justin Trudeau off in Vancouver to give a speech on the government’s new emissions plan for 2030, we did have his deputy present, which was something. Most of the other leaders weren’t present either, and some have become rare sights of late. Luc Berthold led off in French and complained that the emissions reductions plan would cripple the oil sector and that this meant we couldn’t help our friends in Europe get off Russian oil and gas. Terry Duguid stood up to recite some bromides about the plan as announced. Berthold then launched into a rant about how the government doesn’t answer simple questions, and demanded to know if inflation was costing Canadians more. Chrystia Freeland responded that they were sensitive to costs which is why they indexed benefits and introduced $10/day child care. Berthold then railed about the increasing price on carbon, demanding it be suspended, to which Freeland recited the good news about economic growth. Kyle Seeback took over in English, and he misleadingly cited the PBO report on carbon pricing in order to complain that the emissions reduction plan wasn’t going to work. Duguid got back up to recite that the PBO indeed stated that most families would be better off with rebates, and he cited the rebate levels in several provinces. Seeback then railed that the government spent $60 billion on fighting emissions and they still went up—again, somewhat misleadingly because the curve of growth has flattened—and Duguid responded that if the Conservatives were still in charge the emissions would be even higher.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demanded that the government start chartering planes to get more Ukrainian refugees over here. Sean Fraser insisted people were arriving all the time and they were rolling out programmes to support them. Therrien said that Air Transat was just waiting for the government to charter flights and repeated his demand, and Fraser said that they are discussing with airlines.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP in person, and he called the emissions reduction plan “disappointing,” saying it gives a free pass to the fossil fuel sector. Duguid got back up to recite a number of actions they have taken around the energy sector. Singh repeated the question in French, and Duguid recited some more climate action plans.

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