Roundup: Some interesting bits from the jobs data

The December job numbers were released yesterday by StatsCan, and they’re a little funny in that they show that a mere net 100 jobs were created, but that’s really just statistical noise, given the margin of error. And while a bit of hay was made over that, there were a couple of interesting things to delve into in the data.

One of those is that wages continue to be up—way up. Average hourly wages for permanent employees was up 5.7% year-over-year, which is a little crazy when inflation is running around three percent. While high wage growth in the short term can be good to help restore lost purchasing power after last year’s bout of high inflation, if it carries on for too long, it runs the danger of being part of the inflation problem, because prices will need to rise to pay for those salaries, which becomes more inflation, and can turn into a wage-price spiral. (That’s why governments have historically imposed wage and price controls, to try and ensure that they remain on an even playing field to stabilise prices). Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says that if wages keep rising above four percent, that is going to be a problem for taming inflation so that rates can come down.

The other noteworthy issue is that gig work—things like Uber drivers or food delivery services—continues to grow, rising 46 percent over 2023, and that new Canadians are overrepresented in that labour pool. That should also be concerning considering how exploitative those industries can be, and shows that businesses are relying on this immigrant labour to drive down wages, and devalue the labour of those workers.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While continuing to shoot down as many Russian missiles (made in North Korea) and drones as possible, Ukraine is continuing its drone strikes on military targets in occupied Crimea and the Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, in a bid to unsettle the population in advance of the country’s election.

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Roundup: Legal fictions around the carbon levy refusal

While we all emerge from our holiday slumber, the big story domestically remains that Saskatchewan is planning to move ahead with their plans to stop collecting the carbon levy on heat, and hoping that they won’t suffer any repercussions for it. This includes trying to put forward some legal fictions like trying to register the Government of Saskatchewan that’s the seller of natural gas and electricity rather than Crown corporations like SaskEnergy, which the federal government would be well within their rights to reject outright because it’s a fig leaf attempting to protect those Crown corps for breaking federal law. And to add to that, the provincial minister has been spinning the falsehood that the federal “pause” on heating oil won’t reduce the rebate, and that the rebates in his province should be secure if they stop collecting the levy, which is also false–the rebates will be reduced because that money comes from collecting the carbon price—it’s not a federal entitlement programme out of general revenue.

Here’s University of Alberta’s Andrew Leach with more:

In case you missed it:

  • My Xtra story on the Ontario court decision that ruled that calling queer people and drag queens “groomers” is a slur and is not protected speech.
  • My weekend column on an NDP private member’s bill initiative on a Middle East peace plan that looks like a Kickstarter, but is promising things it cannot deliver.
  • My column on the complete lack of serious responses in any of the Conservatives’ year-ender interviews (and the ongoing attempts to justify their Ukraine votes).
  • My year-ender column traces how the shift and fragmentation of social media turned the our politics into an even more toxic snake pit than ever.
  • My latest column on Poilievre’s “debt bomb” disinformation documentary and why it’s just hysteria to rile up the Boomers and Gen-Xers.
  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take on the way the housing issue is going to dominate the political scene for the foreseeable part of 2024.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Kyiv and Kharkiv have come under heavy bombardment in the past several days, in particular striking apartment buildings. There have been Ukrainian drone strikes in the Russian province of Belgorod.

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Roundup: The inflation and population figures

There were a couple of important figures released from StatsCan yesterday, and the first was the November inflation numbers. While some analysts were predicting it to fall, it held at 3.1% for a second month, showing that this is the part where it’s starting to get sticky, and why the Bank can’t let up measures and start reducing interest rates just yet. One of the upsides is that food price inflation continues to come down, which means that prices are stabilising, so that’s very good news (and it has nothing to do with carbon prices). And don’t forget to check out this thread from Trevor Tombe, as he digs into the numbers.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1737111583002923039

The other figures released were the population figures, and it was the fastest growth of any quarter since 1957. The thing to keep an eye on here is that a lot of this seems to be driven by non-permanent residents, whether international students (and the big problem there are a couple of colleges in Ontario turning themselves into abusive degree mills), and other temporary foreign workers, some of whom may have been hired in an abusive way. Some of this are also asylum seekers who have not yet received status (because “closing” Roxham Road didn’t really do much for this situation other than push it underground).

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1737106801617703236

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Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv for the fifth time this month, but this attack was intercepted and no damage was reported. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is boosting its domestic production capacity and will produce one million drones next year. Zelenskyy is also dismissing talk that there is a rift between him and the head of the army. Here’s a look at the work judges are doing to keep the justice system going in a country under fire.

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Roundup: The empty threat to sit over the holidays

Yesterday began with Pierre Poilievre announcing at the start of his caucus meeting that the Conservatives would keep the government from going on their Christmas holidays—because they had allegedly ruined the Christmases of Canadians—unless the government lifts the carbon price from “farmers, First Nations, and families,” which is pretty nebulous, and would seem to mean the consumer carbon price and not the industrial one. Their method of warfare? Thousands of amendments that would force round-the-clock votes on things like their budget implementation bill or the bill to amend competition laws.

The problem is that, despite the threats that Conservatives like Melissa Lantsman are making, is that they can’t actually force the House to sit past December 15th. MPs long ago put the fixed calendar into the Standing Orders, and it would take a unanimous consent motion to change that date, which they’re not going to get. And if they think they’re going to exploit the loophole of keep voting going for days on end (which would technically be one sitting day that lasts beyond twenty-four hours), well, Poilievre is going to find his own MPs are going to start getting pretty upset with him because they have families, and constituency business to attend to, and this kind of thing gets pretty tiresome really quickly.

It’s an empty threat, and it’s the same kind of thing that happens every June, and every December without fail. The opposition parties start thumping their chests because it’s their last chance to flex their muscles and look like they’re being tough on the government, and without fail, they go home on time, if not a day or two early, because everyone is tired, cranky, and just wants to get the hell out of there. I would be incredibly surprised if the House didn’t rise for the holidays by the end of the 14th. Of course, this will be a different matter for the Senate, who will once again complain bitterly that these amendment vote-a-thons will delay their getting the bills, which will mean rushed passage, and that same song and dance will play out yet again, as it does at the end of every session.

In short, everyone needs to grow the hell up, and frankly, MPs need to go home sooner than later and think about their atrocious behaviour.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces shot down 41 out of 48 Russian drones in a major overnight attack. Russian forces pressed again on Avdiivka, with both sides each claiming they made gains. It was Armed Forces Day in Ukraine yesterday, with president Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisting they would win a fair peace “against all odds,” while his defence minister was in Washington to try and secure more aid from the Americans, who are holding it up to try and force concessions around their border. A former Ukrainian MP who was regarded as a traitor was shot dead outside of Moscow, and sources say that Ukraine’s security service was responsible.

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Roundup: Scott Moe takes another illegal step

Not satisfied with his plan to break federal laws in not remitting the carbon levy for natural gas, Scott Moe decided that he was going to ramp it up by also not collecting it for electric heating, which is going to be a neat trick when it comes to trying to disaggregating it from regular electricity use. He says they’re going to find out how many homes us it and reduce the levy collection by a formula that approximates what it might be, but it’s still ridiculous and is just more of this very bad trend of premiers who think that they can just get away with violating federal law if they feel like it. But it’s not him that’ll be exposed by this—it’s the CEO and board of SaskPower, just like with SaskEnergy, and they’re the ones exposed to criminal liability for breaking federal law, not Moe, and that should be of concern to anyone in these positions.

Of course, it bears repeating that it’s not the carbon price driving up these costs, really—it’s the utility provider. But that won’t stop Moe and the federal Conservatives from lying about the size and effect of carbon prices as a distraction (or legacy media from not calling it out).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles struck three towns in Eastern Ukraine—Pokrovsk, Novohrodivka, and Myronhrad, killing two and wounding ten. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops on the northeast frontlines, and called for the faster construction of fortifications in key areas under threat from Russian forces.

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QP: Self-contradicting economic demands

The prime minister was off in Toronto making housing announcements, and his deputy was on the West Coast for her own announcement. Most of the other leaders were also absent, but not Pierre Poilievre. He led off in French, as he so often does, and he accused the prime minister of replacing the joy of Christmas with poverty, according to Operation Santa Claus letters, and he blamed deficit spending. Anita Anand praised the Canada Child Benefit for lifting families out of poverty, and encouraged the Conservatives to vote for their bill to “stabilise grocery prices” (well, indirectly anyway). Poilievre then called the government hypocrites at for how much they fly, to which François-Philippe Champagne said that people can see who the real hypocrisy are because the opposition leader only opposes investment in the green economy. Poilievre switched to English to decry “stagflation” in the last quarter, blaming high deficits, taxes, and red tape, while the American economy was roaring. Anand wanted to remind everyone that they have an economic plan, and recited good news economic talking points to prove their plan was working. Poilievre returned to the accusation of hypocrisy for how much the environment minister has flown before demanding that they cut the carbon price, for which Champagne patted himself on the back for attracting foreign investment in the green economy. Poilievre then raised the court challenge from Ontario First Nations about the carbon price. Patty Hajdu noted that these nations are independent, decried the Conservatives’ colonial attitudes, and listed the investments they have made to those communities.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and demanded the federal government transfer $460 million to Quebec for asylum seekers, insisting they were solely a federal problem (which is not true—they are only federal once their claims re accepted). Don Vandal said that asylum seekers are a shared jurisdiction and they continue to converse with the province. Therrien made another demand, and this time Pablo Rodriguez says there is no fight, just that the Bloc is trying to pick one.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video, and worried about the revelations from the US about assassination plots from India. Dominic LeBlanc said that the RCMP and policing partners across the country are taking this seriously, and cooperating with American law enforcement. Singh switch to French to repeat the concerns from Operation Santa Claus in Quebec, to which Anand plugged the bill they tabled to help build the economy.

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Roundup: Google signs a deal to avoid transparency

With days to go before the Online News Act would start applying, Google has come to an agreement that sees it pay $100 million per year into a fund, rather than to have individual deals with news outlets. This is one of the things that seems to escape most of the critics of the Act—this was about ensuring that the deals that Google and Facebook were already signing with news outlets were subject to transparency and had an arbitrator—the CRTC—at the ready in the case of disputes. This was never a “link tax” or some such nonsense, it was about putting structure into the same deals that were already being made, and it was the transparency that they objected to. This deal ensures that they are not subjected to that transparency, because it’s one lump sum, which is the real takeaway from this deal.

Of course, none of this fixes the underlying problem with is the domination of the ad tech space where Google and Facebook control all aspects of it and are siphoning money at each stage, which is why they have starved news outlets of advertising revenues. Of course, nobody wants to talk about that aspect. To deal with this, there still needs to be stronger anti-trust action, particularly in the US, but this deal is a start, nevertheless.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians claimed that they launched missiles from their Black Sea fleet against “military targets,” but nothing has been verified. Ukraine’s foreign minister says that the EU has delivered about 300,000 of its promised munitions shells so far.

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QP: Starting the Christmas brawling in November

The prime minister was present while his deputy wasn’t, as news was breaking both about an indictment around Indian-sponsored assassination plots and a deal from Google on online news. Most of the other leaders were present, but there was also the promise that the one who wasn’t physically present was there virtually. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, claiming that the prime minister was ashamed of his fiscal record and launched into a rant about debt-servicing charges. Justin Trudeau responded by pointing out that the Conservatives opposed their health funding agreement with the provinces and would prefer austerity to the “responsible” record of the government. Poilievre trotted out his line about people already experiencing austerity and blamed government deficits. Trudeau said that Poilievre’s logic was faulty, as government austerity would not help those people. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and returned to misquoting that Scotiabank report before demanding that he “get control of his spending,” to which Trudeau said that the media didn’t cover the fall economic update much as they would have liked because they were too busy covering Poilievre’s terrible week. Poilievre suggested he give the media even more money to cover what he likes, before he recited lines about carbon pricing, to which Trudeau patted himself on the back for the deal with Google to help fund local journalism. Poilievre then moved to a juvenile “debate me!” cries, before demanding the carbon price be axed. Trudeau said that farmers are seeing the impacts of climate change, which is glaringly obvious to every except for certain MAGA Conservatives.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he demanded a call for tenders for surveillance aircraft that included Bombardier’s vapourware. Trudeau said that they were concerned that the armed forces gets what they need while keeping the aerospace sector in Quebec strong, and that minsters would making decisions in due course. Blanchet tried to insist this was some kind of slight against Quebec, but Trudeau reiterated his same response.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video, and in English, he demanded to know where the online harms bill was after a sextortion case wound up in a suicide. Trudeau said that they all want to protect kids, and were moving forward in the right way, and that they need to ensure that they get this legislation right. Singh demanded action, before switching to French to decry that the president of COP28 was trying to make oil deals in Canada, but Trudeau kept going on about the forthcoming online harms bill, and said it was inappropriate to make accusations about actions or inactions.

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Roundup: Doubling down on the lies about the Ukraine trade deal

As the Conservatives flail about their voting against the Ukraine trade agreement, they are throwing out a number of excuses in order to double down on a stupid position that is backed by the lie that the agreement imposes a carbon price on Ukraine. It doesn’t, they’ve had a carbon price since 2011, but that doesn’t seem to matter. They insist that nothing they’re doing jeopardises the agreement, which is true—it’s already signed, and every other party is voting for this enabling legislation, but what the Conservatives seem to be forgetting is that all of this performance they’re doing for their domestic audience is being noticed aboard, and in particular by the Ukrainian government, and it’s not leaving a good impression.

To that end, they kept moving amendments at committee to include language about weapons sales, which is stupid because nothing precludes them currently, but that kept being out of order—again, because the deal is already signed. This is enabling legislation. And they kept trying to either remove the carbon price references or delay the bill until they could force the government to remove it, but they lost that gambit as well. But again, they’re sending signals to the people paying attention that they are deeply unserious and are going to be untrustworthy allies, and that’s going to do more damage in the long run, all for the sake of trying to score some cheap domestic points right now.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll from the severe  snow storm in southern Ukraine has reached ten, with more injured as a result of accidents and power loss. During this, Russians struck a residential building and a coal mine in Nikopol, killing four and injuring ten others. The wife of Ukraine’s head of military intelligence is being treated for heavy metals poisoning, but no one will say if he was the intended target. Some in Ukraine are calling for defined ends to deployments, which are currently open-ended (as though the country were not in an existential war for its survival).

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QP: The lie that C-234 is supposedly a money bill

The prime minister and his deputy were both present today, which was nice to see, but not every other leader was in the Chamber. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he complained about the debt servicing costs, claiming the prime minister is spending “more for bankers than nurses,” never mind that healthcare is a provincial responsibility and government bonds aren’t lit on fire. Justin Trudeau responded that since last week, more Canadians are having harder believing Poilievre, and rattled off the talking points about Canada having the lowest debt and deficit in the G7, the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio, and that inflation is coming down, while Poilievre would only cut benefits. Poilievre cited food bank stats in Quebec and blamed deficit spending and carbon pricing for it, and demanded the government end both. Trudeau patted himself on the back for their responsible fiscal approach. Poilievre switched to English to turn to the Stellantis plant and the possibility of 900 temporary foreign workers, which he misleadingly called “replacement” workers. Trudeau read that there would be 2300 local workers to build the plant and 2500 local workers when the plant is in operation, and that Poilievre’s need to politicise everything wasn’t helping, while he only wants to cut. Poilievre said that the prime minister was to blame for people’s self-imposed austerity, and demanded he “stop obstructing” Bill C-234 in the Senate, which is of course nonsense as he has no such powers—but this was also the subject of the Conservatives’ Supply Day motion. Trudeau pointed out that there are plenty of reasons for global food price inflation, not the least of which was Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine, and took a dig at the Conservatives for voting against the trade agreement. Poilievre full-on flailed about Trudeau trying to change the channel from the misery he caused. Trudeau said that Poilievre was so desperate to score political points that he was standing against things that Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and noted the rise in antisemitic incidents, and blamed them on the “loophole” in the Criminal Code around religious speech, and wanted support for his bill to remove that loophole (which is a hugely complex issue). Trudeau called out the rise in Islamophobia and antisemitism, and said he would study the bill. Blanchet insisted the bill was straightforward and wanted it passed immediately. Trudeau read a script that hate speech is already criminal, and that they would take a “close look” at the bill.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and in French, he demanded the “anti-scab” legislation be passed immediately. Trudeau took a bit of a jab at the NDP, saying that while they like to paint themselves as the party of workers the government has proved themselves to be, and that he was glad they worked together on this bill. Matthew Green took over in English and took credit for the bill, and demanded the bill be implemented sooner than the 18-month period in the bill. Trudeau repeated his same points in English.

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