Tag Archives: Refugees

Roundup: Sanctions take time to really bite

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It’s now around day forty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it’s carrying on as Putin insists that they will continue until they meet their goals. This as there are unconfirmed reports that chemical weapons were used in an attack in Mariupol, while Russian spokespeople from Donbas were discussing the possibility. That could lead to another escalation in sanctions, and talk of “red lines,” though that didn’t seem to do much good when it happened in Syria. The mayor of Mariupol says that more than 10,000 civilians have been killed as the strategic port city continues being flattened by Russian forces. Ukrainian government officials also say that they have thwarted an attempt by Russian hackers to knock out power to parts of the country, and it’s worth noting that Canada has been providing cyber-security assistance to Ukraine.

On the subject of sanctions, there are lots of questions circulating about how effective they really are if the invasion continues, and it’s one of those things for which it’s not an easy answer. Yes, they’re hurting Russia, but Putin and his inner circle seem fairly insulated from some of the worst of it, in part because they managed to stop the ruble from collapsing entirely. That makes it even more imperative to provide military support to Ukraine so that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield, which will hurt Putin more. This doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t carry on with sanctions, because we should, but they’re at the point where they are hurting us as well, and we had Conservatives demanding exemptions for farmers last week who bought fertilizer from Russia before the conflict began and now don’t want to pay the tariffs associated. But for sanctions to be effective, they will hurt us as well, and people seem to forget that.

As well, this conflict is now going to have an effect on inflation globally, because of the effect of diverting from Russian oil and gas, and from the effect this war has on Ukraine’s ability to produce and export food, as the breadbasket of Europe. Of course, it’s going to continue to be blamed on government spending (never mind that it actually isn’t, and this is a global problem), and the Bank of Canada is going to hike rates this week if only because they need to be seen to be doing something about the problem even if it won’t actually address the root causes of these price increases. Things are messy, and it’s going to take time for everything to work itself out, but what will really help is for Russia to get out of Ukraine.

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Roundup: What the budget leaks reveal

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We are on or about day forty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it looks like Russian units have pulled out now from around Kyiv and Chernihiv, back into Russia or Belarus in order to resupply and reorganise, and the expectation is that they will move toward the Donbas region, which Russia says it wants to “liberate.” That has Ukrainian authorities encouraging people in the region to evacuate before they come under fire. On a related note, the mayor of Mariupol says that at least 5000 civilians have been killed in his city including 210 children, and that 90 percent of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed, because that’s what Russia does.

Closer to home, it is the great pre-budget tradition of leaks from the PMO in order to set the stage for the main event. So far, we have leaks on:

  • Defence spending—as much as $8 billion will apparently be allocated (though who knows if they will have the capability to actually spend it, as they can’t with their current allocation)
  • The promised surtax on big banks and insurance companies who profited during the pandemic, which they hope will raise $1.2 billion per year for the next three years.
  • They plan to allocate $10 billion to housing over five years to implement the various measures from their platform, including $4 billion to help municipalities update their zoning and permitting to hopefully unclog that particular bottleneck.
  • There are hints coming that it may “overperform” in its fiscal anchors because of the roaring economy boosting revenues.

And of course, the usual wailing and rending of clothes by a subset of economists who think that enhancing the social safety net is expansionary fiscal policy that will force the Bank of Canada to fend for itself in tackling inflation.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1511835606132830211

Meanwhile, here are Chrystia Freeland’s budget shoes. This was the first time federally that the event had taken place in a women’s shoe store (as she had them delivered to her home last year because of the pandemic). And thankfully, she didn’t try something gimmicky.

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QP: Exasperation with housing talking points

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A bright and sunny Tuesday in the Nation’s Capital, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was present for QP, and for the first time in weeks, so was every other leader, all together. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she complained that the Liberals had moved away from “moderates” like John Manley and Anne McLellan—because it’s 1995 and will always be 1995—and she worried the budget would be an NDP document. Trudeau recited that they made the choice two year ago to support Canadians through the pandemic, and that led to the economic growth that we are seeing now. Bergen complained that out-of-control spending led to out-of-control prices and insisted that Canadians were worse off than six years ago—which I’m pretty sure doesn’t actually track. Trudeau insisted that they made the choice to prop up Canadians in the pandemic, and were working to make their lives better. Bergen again insisted that every budget made Canadians worse off, and demanded that Trudeau listen to “moderate” Liberals and produce a “responsible” budget, to which Trudeau produced a list of supports that they introduced or enriched, which the Conservatives opposed entirely. Luc Berthold took over in French, and he too insisted that these big-spending budgets led to inflation (never mind that we know the cause of the current bout of inflation and it’s not government spending), and Trudeau recited that they would be there for Canadians, which is why the economy has boomed. Berthold quoted Paul Martin to demand that they cut spending now that the economy is growing, to which Trudeau countered that they enhanced supports for Canadians to help them with rising costs, where the Conservatives wanted austerity.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he insisted that nobody believes in the emissions reduction plan, and wanted the prime minster to admit that his plan failed. Trudeau took a script and read off that the Montreal and Quebec City mayors supported their plan. Blanchet insisted the plan was “scientifically unacceptable” and listed fossil fuel subsidies as proof, and demanded the Bay du Nord project be cancelled. Trudeau instead lamented that Blanchet badmouthed the mayors.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and after reciting a lamentation about rising prices, he wanted assurances that their shared priorities were in the budget. Trudeau responded with a rehearsed paean about how their investments in Canadians have grown the economy. Singh switched to French to demand that the ultra-rich pay their fair share starting with big banks—which was a Liberal platform promise—but Trudeau merely repeated his same paean in French.

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QP: Category is—fisheries questions!

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau was present for the first time in over a week, but in spite of this, only one other leader was actually present. Observing today was a delegation of Ukrainian parliamentarians, though that did not guarantee good behaviour. Luc Berthold led off once again, and in French, he accused the government of stoking inflation by raising the carbon price (erm, except it’s not captured by the consumer price index), and then went on a tangent about the NDP wanting to raise taxes in the upcoming budget. Trudeau stood up to offer some bromides about delivering on promises for Canadians including their emissions reductions plan, reconciliation, and national child care. Berthold repeated the question and demanded a reduction in taxes in the upcoming budget, and Trudeau reminded him that the cost of inaction on climate change is far more than the investments they are making, and that the price on carbon was the right way to move forward. Berthold then policed Trudeau’s feminism by raising the military ombudsman’s warnings about General Jonathan Vance. Trudeau recited that they need to transform the culture in the Canadian Forces, and lamented that it is taking too long, but it’s happening. Kerry-Lynne Findlay took over in English, and lambasted the government for not taking action against General Vance of the minister who enabled him, and Trudeau repeated that nobody should be in a toxic work environment, particularly those who serve the country. Findlay gave a somewhat spun version of what happened with the military ombudsman, and Trudeau repeated his assurances, before stating that he didn’t agree with their characterisation of events, and that they were trying to score points.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and he repeated the Bloc’s demand for an immediate airlift for refugees. Trudeau assured him they were working as quickly and safely as possible, with no limits on who could arrive. Blanchet pivoted to worries that some were being excluded when it comes to research, and Trudeau read some talking points about valuing science and providing resources to a scientific and research ecosystem. 

Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP in person, and he accused the government of caving to the energy sector at the expense of the environment, to which Trudeau read some good news talking points about their emissions reduction plan. Charlie Angus took over in English to repeat the question with additional bombast and theatrics, and Trudeau read his English talking points with a bit more enthusiasm.

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Roundup: Insufficient consequences for an abuse of power

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We are now on or about day thirty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the promise that they were pulling back from Kyiv and other places to give peace talks room to breathe were, well, not true. But nobody actually believed Russia in the first place, so nobody is exactly shocked here. Maclean’s features photos from Ukraine from Canadian photographer Philip Cheung on the ground there.

Closer to home, former Chief of Defence Staff Jonathan Vance pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice charges, and admitted to all the various things that he flatly denied previously. But the galling part in all of this is that got off on a conditional sentence that included community service, rather than face a criminal record. And even more appalling was the fact that his lawyer was trying to argue that Vance was going to suffer enough because his reputation had been stained enough that he wasn’t going to be able to cash in on the promises of future defence spending, whether that’s with some kind of government relations gig, or consultancy.

The bigger picture in all of this is not just that there is a highly sexualized culture in the military that this is a mere hint of, it’s that there is an abuse of power crisis within the military that the lack of meaningful consequences here simply emboldens. This obstruction of justice charge, and the admission of it all, is a demonstration of the abuse of power that Vance was trying to wield, and got caught doing. That he gets to avoid the serious consequences of this abuse, and that the notion that he can’t cash in is punishment enough, is a sign that this is a rot that runs deep and we need to be serious about this problem and acknowledging that it exists before we can get to work on tackling it as part of the culture change that the Canadian Forces desperately needs to undergo.

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QP: The pre-budget questions have started in earnest

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It was a very unusual Wednesday in that most leaders were once again absent—the prime minister was off at the Williams Lake First Nation, missing his self-imposed Wednesday PMQs for the second week in a row, and missing from QP for over a week now; his deputy was also absent. Candice Bergen has been absent for days (and there has been some chatter that her husband tested positive for COVID), as has Yves-François Blanchet. As well, somewhat unusually for a Wednesday, the benches were emptier than they typically are. And possibly worth noting, Speaker Rota remains away, and his deputy, Chris d’Entremont remains in the big chair. Luc Berthold led off, and lamented that they have a date for the first “NDP budget,” which merited him applause from the NDP benches, and he decried what it would represent. Randy Boissonnault stood up to insist that the Conservatives were talking down the economy, and he recited StatsCan data on GDP growth. Berthold quoted Jean Chrétien about deficits, as though it were still 1995, and Boissonnault made a plea to pass Bill C-8 to buy more rapid tests. Berthold accused Chrystia Freeland of selling her soul for a majority, and Boissonnault listed measures they have taken for Canadians. Dan Albas took over in English to decry inflation and a measure around housing, for which Ahmed Hussen dismissed the concerns as the Conservatives did nothing for affordable housing. Albas spouted a few misleading things about what the Bank of Canada Governor and the Parliamentary Budget Officer said about carbon prices, demanding they not increase, and Randy Boissonnault recited that the carbon rebates were progressive and most will get back more than they pay.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the policy that seniors aged 75 and older age getting a top-up rather than all seniors, wondering if this was a Conservative or NDP decision, and Darren Fisher responded with a few points about how affordability gets tougher for older seniors. Therrien insisted that inflation meant they were abandoning seniors, and Fisher read some talking points about measures they have taken for seniors to date.

Jagmeet Singh rose in person for the NDP, and accused the government of siding with banks over people. Boissonnault said that while they understand the sentiment of the NDP’s failed supply day notion, they have taken action on taxing the wealthiest. Singh repeated the question in French, and got the same answer.

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Roundup: A strange definition of dictatorship

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We’re now on or about day thirty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces appeared to be pulling back from Kyiv, allegedly to give more space to peace talks, not that anyone believes Russia (nor should they). It could mark a more concentrated effort by Russian forces to “liberate Donbas,” which some say could be a face-saving measure for Putin. As part of the peace talks, Ukraine floated the idea of making Canada a security guarantor to the proposal of neutrality, and not hosting any military troops or bases from other alliances such as NATO, so that’s something. In the meantime, here is a look at why Russia is taking such heavy casualties (and why that is unlikely to deter them).

Closer to home, we have a major problem with disinformation that is being pushed by MPs, particularly Conservative ones. This week, MPs Brad Redekopp and Rachael Thomas declared that Justin Trudeau is a “dictator,” and that they were being absolutely serious about it. This, like Andrew Scheer declaring that Trudeau is the world’s greatest threat to liberty, is absolutely gobsmacking, but part of an increasing pattern of rhetoric that is dangerous to our democracy because it is so corrosive to both accepting election results, and faith in government writ-large, regardless of party.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1508917840333709317

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1508917842607054853

This metastasises into the full-blown endorsement of conspiracy theories, and it’s a problem that is currently plaguing MPs, as that (fairly shite) Senate bill on developing a framework for a guaranteed basic liveable income has senators’ mailboxes and social media being flooded with both conspiracy theories and disinformation about this bill, but also panicked seniors who are being told that they will be denied their pensions and benefits if they are insufficiently vaccinated or the likes. It’s a real problem, and too many MPs (and a handful of senators) have been feeding into this disinformation environment for the sake of scoring a few points, and they really need to stop. No good comes of this, and they’re causing longer-term damage that will be incredibly hard to overcome.

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QP: Unhappy with the new emissions plan

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With Justin Trudeau off in Vancouver to give a speech on the government’s new emissions plan for 2030, we did have his deputy present, which was something. Most of the other leaders weren’t present either, and some have become rare sights of late. Luc Berthold led off in French and complained that the emissions reductions plan would cripple the oil sector and that this meant we couldn’t help our friends in Europe get off Russian oil and gas. Terry Duguid stood up to recite some bromides about the plan as announced. Berthold then launched into a rant about how the government doesn’t answer simple questions, and demanded to know if inflation was costing Canadians more. Chrystia Freeland responded that they were sensitive to costs which is why they indexed benefits and introduced $10/day child care. Berthold then railed about the increasing price on carbon, demanding it be suspended, to which Freeland recited the good news about economic growth. Kyle Seeback took over in English, and he misleadingly cited the PBO report on carbon pricing in order to complain that the emissions reduction plan wasn’t going to work. Duguid got back up to recite that the PBO indeed stated that most families would be better off with rebates, and he cited the rebate levels in several provinces. Seeback then railed that the government spent $60 billion on fighting emissions and they still went up—again, somewhat misleadingly because the curve of growth has flattened—and Duguid responded that if the Conservatives were still in charge the emissions would be even higher.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demanded that the government start chartering planes to get more Ukrainian refugees over here. Sean Fraser insisted people were arriving all the time and they were rolling out programmes to support them. Therrien said that Air Transat was just waiting for the government to charter flights and repeated his demand, and Fraser said that they are discussing with airlines.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP in person, and he called the emissions reduction plan “disappointing,” saying it gives a free pass to the fossil fuel sector. Duguid got back up to recite a number of actions they have taken around the energy sector. Singh repeated the question in French, and Duguid recited some more climate action plans.

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Roundup: Buying the F-35s after all

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We are now somewhere around day thirty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there are claims that Ukrainian-forces have retaken a Kyiv suburb as well as another city further east. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing for another round of peace talks with the Russians and sounds like he is willing to declare the country neutral and give up any hope of future NATO membership in exchange for peace and future security guarantees (NATO membership wouldn’t come so long as there are territorial disputes, meaning so long as Russia occupies Crimea and the Donbas regions, it would be impossible). Zelenskyy also briefed Justin Trudeau on the talks yesterday, because they are keeping each other in the loop.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1508520970516058121

Closer to home, the announcement was made that the government will finally be settling on purchasing F-35 fighter jets to replace our aging CF-18 fleet, leading to questions about whether the last seven years were wasted when the previous Conservative sole-sourced contract was cancelled in favour of a new competition. And if you read the 2015 election platform promise about cancelling the purchase, it was because it was sole-sourced for a high price, given that the goal of a competition is to get a better price, so we’ll see if that pans out. It’s still not a done deal—they now get to negotiate directly with Lockheed Martin to get the best deal possible—but we have to remember something of what happened with the previous announcement, particularly that it was done poorly, and the Auditor General called out how opaque it was, and that’s kind of a big deal.

We should also remember that the planes are a much more mature platform now, with many of their flaws having been worked out (though I haven’t heard yet whether the ejection seats will still kill you if you’re below a certain height and weight, because that was a real problem). It does sound increasingly like the biggest consideration was the interoperability with NATO and NORAD fighters, meaning we had to be fairly seamless with the Americans, rather than just the promise of regional job creation programmes (though Canada being a participant in the joint strike fighter programme the whole time means we’ve already had some of those industrial benefits throughout). We’ll have to see what more the government can extract from Lockheed Martin in promises as those negotiations carry on throughout the year to see whether that seven-year delay was worth the wait.

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QP: Selectively quoting a PBO report that selectively frames an issue

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With Justin Trudeau away—first to Mississauga to announce the child care deal in Ontario along with his deputy, then off to Vancouver, none of the other leaders bothered to show up in the House of Commons for Question Period today, so happy Monday to you all. Luc Berthold led off, script in front of him, and in French, he regaled the Commons with a tale of how people approached him in the grocery store about complaints about the rising cost of living, and demanded to now how the prime minister intends to feed Canadian families. Randy Boissonnault accused him of creating economic fiction, and recited Statistics Canada data on the growth of the GDP. Berthold railed about the price of gas and what it was doing for inflation, to which Boisonnault praised the child care agreement with Ontario as an affordability measure. Berthold then switched to health care transfers to provinces and the principles the government were attaching to them, to which Jean-Yves Duclos praised their measures to save Canadians’ lives. Kyle Seeback got up and in English, railed about the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s report on carbon prices, selectively quoting a report that only selectively looks at a portion of the issue, to which Terry Duguid assured him that the PBO stated that most families will get more back in rebates than they pay. Seeback insisted this was wrong, that the PBO stated otherwise, and Duguid repeated his points.

Alain Therrien rose for the Bloc, and he demanded that health transfers have no conditions and blamed the federal government for underfunding provincial health systems, and Duclos recited some good news talking points about the $2 billion for surgery backlogs. Therrien listed federal failures to insist that they had no competence for healthcare, to which Pablo Rodriguez quipped that the Bloc should invest in shirt-making companies because they keep tearing their shirts every day.

Alexandre Boulerice appeared for the NDP by video and wondered about enforcement of sanctions in Canada, to which Mélanie Joly praised the sanctions and the assets that they froze. Heather McPherson repeated the question in English, and Joly repeated her assurances.

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