Roundup: Mary May Simon’s tea with the Queen

As we carry on through day twenty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we had a glimmer of good news yesterday in that the bomb shelter under that theatre in Mariupol held, and it sounds like a lot of people survived and are being dug out of the rubble. Unfortunately, it sounds like about 80 percent of Mariupol is now rubble, but Ukrainians and allies are vowing to rebuild.

Meanwhile, Canada’s mission at the UN sent out a tweet yesterday marking up and annotating a Russian resolution before the UN about the invasion that doesn’t mention the invasion, only the need for protection of civilians in “vulnerable situation.” The tweet attracted a lot of mixed reviews, but most of them fairly negative because it seems to betray a particular lack of seriousness in how we conduct our foreign affairs (and that it looks like they’re aiming for Twitter dunks).

On a different note, Her Excellency Mary May Simon told CBC that she and the Queen discussed reconciliation and the need to better teach history so that Canadians get a true history of the relationship with Indigenous people. She also said they spoke about the grifter occupation in Ottawa (which the Queen was already briefed about, because the Queen of Canada knows what is going on in her realm), and the situation in Ukraine. It was also revealed that May Simon had requested briefings from officials about the Indian Act and efforts to reform it—which is fine and not a sign that she is overstepping her role. If she wants to make reconciliation a theme of her time in office, then it’s good to have a knowledge base about the intricacies of the history of it (as an Inuk, she was under a different government system than the Indian Act). And frankly, given the expectations that were being heaped upon her to be activist when she was nominated to the position, I think that implied tone of the story of these briefings was some kind of activist move is perhaps as much of a problem as those expectations. May Simon is now on a state visit to three countries in the Middle East, starting with Dubai.

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Roundup: A strategic turning point?

We are in day seventeen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the bombardment and shelling has intensified not only in Mariupol, but some other cities that have thus far been unaffected. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have achieved a strategic turning point, that they have lasted four times longer than Russia planned for them to, and asked his people for strength and patience. There are also concerns that Russians are targeting ports and grain silos, which could have a major impact on food supplies in the region as the crisis grows. In the meantime, the BBC has a chilling report out of Kharkiv, and it’s a bit grisly because of the number of Russian corpses just lying there.

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Justin Trudeau concluded his European trip, and announced yet more sanctions against Russian oligarchs including Roman Abramovich, who has interests in a steel company that has operations in Canada, so these sanctions could affect its operations.

Closer to home, Anita Anand addressed the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence yesterday, and spoke about a “robust package” to modernise NORAD, and said that they have not forgotten about the threats posed by China while the world is focused on Ukraine. At the same conference, a senior CSIS official spoke about the vulnerability posed by cyberspace, which is why they are focusing on protecting critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks.

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Roundup: Calls to further isolate Belarus

The continued shelling of Mariupol marked day sixteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the Russians were aggressively pushing disinformation and propaganda about what happened there. It also looks like that long convoy on the way to Kyiv has broken up, and redeployed elsewhere. The US, European Union and G7 are all moving to follow Canada’s lead in revoking Russia’s “most favoured nation” trade status, while Belarus’ exiled opposition leader called for tighter sanction on that country, including having it removed from the SWIFT system as well, as she seeks diplomatic isolation of the Lukashenko regime, as well as Canadian recognition of her “government in exile.”

Justin Trudeau’s final stop on his European tour was in Poland, where he met with Ukrainian refugees who had fled across the border. Trudeau later said that Putin would lose the war, and that he would face consequences for his illegal war and the war crimes that come along with it. It has also been announced that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely address Canada’s Parliament on Tuesday, which is during the March Break, meaning that MPs and senators will fly into Ottawa for a day, then fly back out again.

Closer to home, the Chief of Defence Staff says that Russia’s re-occupation of its Cold War bases in its far north are of concern to Canada, and that we shouldn’t be complacent. General Eyre’s big challenge remains recruitment, however, which is not going to be an easy nut to crack, particularly as culture change is still underway within our military ranks. Of course, we should also remember that it’s extremely unlikely to face any kind of northern invasion because it’s simply not feasible. Seriously.

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Roundup: More nuclear concerns with more shelling

We are now into day thirteen of Russia’s (stalled) invasion into Ukraine, and things don’t seem to be advancing much more at the moment. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video showing that he was still in his office working, citing that he was unafraid, while photos circulated of Ukrainian forces taking out the supply convoy for the stalled convoy that has been stuck on the approach to Kyiv for days now. Meanwhile, Russian forces destroyed another nuclear facility—this time an atomic physics lab, which also provided medical isotopes to the country, so that’s a very bad thing.

Justin Trudeau was in London yesterday, where he met with Boris Johnson and Mark Rutte of the Netherlands to discuss more coordinated actions and further sanctions against high-ranking Russian officials, in advance of further meetings later in the week. Trudeau did make mention of possible higher military spending, but as we discussed yesterday, it’s hard to see how that will help if we already can’t spend what we’re allocating currently because of capacity constraints. Trudeau also pledged support for Europeans in getting off of their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, but in spite of what Jason Kenney seems to think, we have no current LNG export capacity nor can we build any anytime soon, so this support will appear to be more geared toward their own green transition rather than to Canadian-sourced product.

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Trudeau also met with the Queen yesterday, and they apparently chatted for some 45 minutes, when a usual audience lasts 20, so that’s a promising sign. It was her first event post-COVID, and it was nice to see her back on her feet again.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1500825664634687488

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Roundup: Fears over a fire at a nuclear plant

At the start of day nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was a lot of tension and drama as Russian forces shelled the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia, leading to concerns that a fire could lead to some kind of Fukushima-style meltdown, particularly after firefighters were also fired upon. In the end, it turns out that the fire was a separate building and that the reactor was fine, with no changes to radiation levels, but it was nevertheless a huge concern for a few hours, and which president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to proclaim that Russia has targeted their nuclear reactors as a form of blackmail. It’s really, really a bad situation.

In terms of Canadian contributions, new shipments of lethal aid were announced yesterday morning, along with new punitive measures against Russia and Belarus, removing their “most favoured nation” status (they now join North Korea as the only countries without it), and slapped tariffs of 35 percent on all of their products (though as was pointed out, this is still less than tariffs that our dairy cartel forces upon imports from out allies and trading partners). Canada is leading calls to have Russia’s membership in INTERPOL suspended. On top of this, new streamlined immigration and refugee processes were announced that will take two weeks to fully implement, during which time those wishing to come to Canada can get their biometric data sorted at consulates in countries surrounding Ukraine, as they had beefed up their capabilities ahead of time. Of course, this also raises questions as to why this kind of expedited process hasn’t been made for other refugee groups (though the obvious reply is that Ukrainian refugees are making it to European countries with more resources).

The Toronto Star’s editorial board caught up with Mélanie Joly between her visit to Poland and meetings in Brussels, where she reiterates once again that no, a no-fly zone is not going to happen, particularly because Putin is an irrational actor. Elsewhere, Chrystia Freeland warned that there could be severe consequences if any Canadian heads over to Ukraine to join the fight as it may not be legal to do so (and this is a fight over the international rules-based order), and Anita Anand added that if they want to sign up, they should enlist with the Canadian Forces (which has a 10,000 person shortfall at present).

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QP: Bland assurances about Arctic sovereignty

For Thursday, neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, nor were most of the the other leaders, save one. Luc Berthold led off, with a script but without a mini-lectern, and in French, he worried about the disinformation circulating about the invasion of Ukraine, but wedged this into a question about expelling the Russian ambassador. Anita Anand rose, not to answer but to recognise the presence of Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in the gallery, which was against the rules—which the Speaker reminded her of—before Anand made a bland statement. Berthold worried about the state of our military’s readiness should Putin carry on, and Anand assured him that of course we are ready and that nothing has been neglected, before she read out what new lethal aid was provided to Ukraine this morning. Raquel Dancho took over in English to again demand to know what meetings she has had to prepare for Russian threats of retaliation. Anand assured her that they were prepared for any eventuality, and mentioned working with American counterparts to modernise NORAD as a priority. Dancho worried that we did not have sufficient military assets in the Arctic, and wanted further reassurances, and Anand repeated her reassurances before saying that we need to be non-provocative and rational in this situation. Berthold took back over to repeat the question about what we are doing about deterrence to keep Russia from invading the Arctic. Anand repeated that we would work with the US, and stated that the Coast Guard would defend us.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and worried that the government’s emergency travel documents for Ukrainian refugees would take too long, and Anand read that what was announced today would reduce red tape and would hasten passage for Ukrainians, and there was no limit to how many were would take in. Normandin stated the need for an emergency airlift operation, and Anand spoke about more measures for these refugees but did not commit to an airlift.

Jagmeet Singh led for the NDP, in person, and demanded more sanctions against more Russian oligarchs, to which Anand, after some hesitation, listed those already under sanction and said that they were working with allies to impose yet more sanctions. Singh repeated the question in French, and Anand repeated her response in French.

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QP: Some talking points about supporting Ukraine

For Wednesday, caucus day, and this prime minister’s proto-PMQ day, there was a very curious absence in the Chamber, as Candice Bergen was absent even though every other leader was present—even Amita Kuttner was in the gallery watching. Luc Berthold led off, script in front of him, and in French, demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador. Justin Trudeau stated that they have been clear in their condemnation, and said they would continue to aid Ukrainians in every way possible—but did not answer the question. Berthold insisted there was no reason for Putin’s representative to stay here and spread misinformation, and Trudeau repeated his “everything we can do” talking points rather than do something like speak about the value of diplomacy. Berthold the pivoted to provinces lifting public health orders and demanded that all federal vaccine mandates be lifted, and Trudeau read some well-worn talking points about following science, and praised Canadians for getting vaccinated. Michael Chong took over in English, and he again demanded that the a Russian ambassador be expelled, and he went on about doing everything they can do for Ukraine. Chong demanded the government order the CRTC to keep RT from Canadian airwaves, and Trudeau read a script about information warfare and that they are asking the CRTC to conduct a review, but it was important to note that this was in the hands of independent regulators and not politicians.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about the government musing about sending Western Canadian oil to Europe, and Trudeau, extemporaneously, said the future depends on decarbonising but at the moment Europe needs help so they would see what they can do. Blanchet wanted more clarity about what this means, and Trudeau rebutted that his was the government that has done the most to combat climate change, but they would be there to help friends in Europe.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, in person today, and demanded visa-free travel for Ukrainians, citing Lloyd Axworthy, and Trudeau insisted they were not refusing but were working to increase the ease by which they can help Ukrainians coming to Canada, and they were looking at the best way to go about this. Singh repeated the demand in French, and a Trudeau repeated his answer.

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QP: Repeating the same Ukraine questions once again

The prime minister was present for QP today, as was his deputy, so we would see how the questions about the war in Ukraine would shape up with him in the room. They weren’t much improved—or different for that matter. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and she demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador and to recall ours from Moscow, because they seem to believe that diplomacy is a cookie for good behaviour, which it absolutely is not. Justin Trudeau said that the foreign minister had summoned the Russian Ambassador to be admonished, but that they were keeping all tools on the table, which one assumes includes diplomacy. Bergen then demanded visa-free travel to Canada for Ukrainian refugees, for which Trudeau read that they have bolstered capacity and priorities Ukrainian applications. Bergen then stated that the longer Canadian oil and gas stays in the ground, the more Putin wins, and demanded a policy of drilling. Trudeau noted their supports for Alberta, their support for the Trans Mountain expansion, and that they were working toward a cleaner future. Bergen then pivoted to the Emergencies Act invocation, and insisted that the only used it for political reasons, for which Trudeau read that law enforcement found it essential, and accused the Conservatives of being unable to pick a lane. Bergen then demanded that all federal vaccine mandates be lifted and accused the government of “dragging their knuckles” because vaccine mandates are “so yesterday.” Trudeau reminded her that they base their decisions based on science.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc and wanted to ensure that sanctions would remain in place until the last Russian soldier was out of Ukraine, and Trudeau largely agreed with the notion. Blanchet then worried about the rhetoric of using the war in Ukraine as a propaganda tool for western Canadian oil and gas, for which Trudeau noted that while Canada imports negligible amounts of Russian oil and gas, they need to work with Europe to end their dependence on it, talking about a clean energy future.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video in French to ask about sanctions on Belarus, for which Trudeau reminded him that they already imposed them for their complicity in the invasion of Ukraine, and that they were looking at future ones. Singh switched to English to demand a barrier-free process for Ukrainians seeking refuge in Canada, and Trudeau note that they have been preparing this for a month now.

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QP: Support for Ukraine, but what about “ethical oil”?

While the prime minister was around, and would give a press conference after QP, and make a statement in the Chamber later in the evening, he was not present for QP itself, though his deputy was. Candice Bergen led off, saying that many of the country’s actions were too little too late and demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador and to recall ours from Moscow—because they believe diplomacy is a cookie for good behaviour. Chrystia Freeland rose to say that Canadians were united, and that this was about freedom versus tyranny, but didn’t address Bergen’s demand. Bergen said she agreed with the sentiments, and wanted visa-free travel for Ukrainians to Canada, and Freeland rose to address the previous question and noted that there were Russian officials who stood against the regime and she urged those officials in Canada not to be complicit, and said all options were on the table. Bergen demanded that the country end its “dependence” on Russian oil—of which, vanishingly little actually flows into this county—and to send Canadian oil to Europe. Freeland noted that the sanctions on Russia are having an effect, and hurting their oil exports was one way. Luc Berthold took over in French to demand the expulsion of the Russian ambassador, and Freeland took the opportunity to repeat her initial statement about unity in French. Berthold then repeated the demand for visa-free travel, and Freeland recounted news from her own family in Ukraine who decided to stay and fight, and that Canada would support them as well as those fleeing.

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Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he gave a paean to the bravery of Ukrainian people, and pledged Bloc support to the government’s actions, and wondered what else they could do to help. Freeland recited her talking points about sanctions hurting “Fortress Russia.” Therrien asked if they can waive visas or take other actions, and Freeland noted that they have already started to welcome Ukrainians, including those currently in Canada and unable to return home.

Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP by video, and after a false start, and demanded Canada do more to help Ukrainian refugees, to which Freeland assured him they were already doing so in a united fashion. Jenny Kwan took over in English to make the same demand, and Freeland spoke of her pride in the brave resistance of Ukrainians, and said that of course they were helping Ukrainian refugees with more details coming soon.

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QP: Debating the need for the Emergencies Act

While the party leaders had all been in the Chamber for debate on the Emergencies Act, only one of them was still there by the time QP got underway. Luc Berthold led off in French, and he asserted that the PM had not paid out the case to invoke the Act and accused him of invoking it simply to save his personal political fortunes, to which Chrystia Freeland raised the economic damage of blockades like in Windsor. Berthold accused her of not updating her talking points, and then asserted there was no case to worry about foreign funding. Freeland stated that business leaders support the necessary action the government has taken because of the blockades and quoted Goldy Hyder’s support. Berthold repeated that there were no longer blockades at the border, and wondered why the prime minster’s mind changed over the weekend around invoking the Act. Freeland insisted that the government would always do what was needed to defend workers and the national interest, and raised their work in the New NAFTA negotiations to compare to the current situation. Kerry-Lynne Findlay took over in English and quoted the deputy director of FINTRAC saying there were no spike in suspicious actions, and Freeland retorted that she spoke to the head of FINTRAC and that they didn’t have the tools necessary to track the new world like crypto, which is why the new measures brought in gave them new authorities. Findlay then tried to catch out the prime minister in a contradiction about the geographically-limited nature of the invocation versus it being available nationally, and Freeland worried that the Conservatives were no longer a party that was concerned with the best interests of the country, then quoted her meeting with Perrin Beatty.

Alain Therrien rose for the Bloc, and listed things the government didn’t need to invoke the Emergencies Act for, and stated that it was simply a lack of leadership. Freeland business leaders in Quebec supported the government. Therrien claimed the federal government had been in “hiding” over the occupation outside—a blatant falsehood—and Freeland said they were taking responsibility for democracy and to protect the national interest.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he wanted a plan to get out of the pandemic with a commitment to better fund healthcare, for which Freeland stated that they were moving past the Canadians thanks to the 90 percent of Canadians who were vaccinated, and praised our outcomes in mortality rates over the course of the pandemic as compared to other countries. Singh switched to in French to call on the government to improve people’s lives, and Freeland assured him that they were doing so.

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