Tag Archives: Supreme Court

Roundup: Sanctions take time to really bite

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It’s now around day forty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it’s carrying on as Putin insists that they will continue until they meet their goals. This as there are unconfirmed reports that chemical weapons were used in an attack in Mariupol, while Russian spokespeople from Donbas were discussing the possibility. That could lead to another escalation in sanctions, and talk of “red lines,” though that didn’t seem to do much good when it happened in Syria. The mayor of Mariupol says that more than 10,000 civilians have been killed as the strategic port city continues being flattened by Russian forces. Ukrainian government officials also say that they have thwarted an attempt by Russian hackers to knock out power to parts of the country, and it’s worth noting that Canada has been providing cyber-security assistance to Ukraine.

On the subject of sanctions, there are lots of questions circulating about how effective they really are if the invasion continues, and it’s one of those things for which it’s not an easy answer. Yes, they’re hurting Russia, but Putin and his inner circle seem fairly insulated from some of the worst of it, in part because they managed to stop the ruble from collapsing entirely. That makes it even more imperative to provide military support to Ukraine so that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield, which will hurt Putin more. This doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t carry on with sanctions, because we should, but they’re at the point where they are hurting us as well, and we had Conservatives demanding exemptions for farmers last week who bought fertilizer from Russia before the conflict began and now don’t want to pay the tariffs associated. But for sanctions to be effective, they will hurt us as well, and people seem to forget that.

As well, this conflict is now going to have an effect on inflation globally, because of the effect of diverting from Russian oil and gas, and from the effect this war has on Ukraine’s ability to produce and export food, as the breadbasket of Europe. Of course, it’s going to continue to be blamed on government spending (never mind that it actually isn’t, and this is a global problem), and the Bank of Canada is going to hike rates this week if only because they need to be seen to be doing something about the problem even if it won’t actually address the root causes of these price increases. Things are messy, and it’s going to take time for everything to work itself out, but what will really help is for Russia to get out of Ukraine.

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Roundup: Pronouncements that should be disqualifying

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We are now on or about day forty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the word of the day is “war crimes.” In particular, American president Joe Biden declared that Putin needs to be tried for war crimes…which is odd, because the Americans don’t believe in the International Criminal Court and haven’t signed onto its treaties for fear that they will be hauled before it at some point. So, I’m not sure who Biden thinks will be trying Putin for said war crimes, unless he plans to bring American into the ICC system at long last (though I am dubious that will ever happen). In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Bucha and witnessed the atrocities there for himself, calling Russia’s actions a “genocide” (though there is some debate about the applicability of the term given that it is a crime of specific intent).

Closer to home, there has been some attention being paid to the fact that Pierre Poilievre is trying to promote crypto and Bitcoin, and it’s just so ridiculous how this isn’t automatically being seen as disqualifying. (And it’s not just Poilievre—Michelle Rempel Garner has a private members’ bill in the queue about promoting crypto and blockchain in Canada). Never mind that everything Poilievre is saying is bunk, and his pronouncements about the Central Bank are utterly bonkers. The truth of the matter is that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that they are nothing more than elaborate Ponzi schemes, and if he can’t see that, then we have a serious problem on our hands.

Meanwhile, here’s the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, eviscerating Poilievre and his nonsense thinking:

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Roundup: No more human resources to spare

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I believe we are now in day thirty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces are believed to be leaving the area of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant after their soldiers soaked up “significant doses” of radiation while digging trenches in the area. (You think?) There were also plans for another humanitarian corridor to evacuate people from Mariupol, but it doesn’t appear to have been honoured.

Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he had sacked two high-ranking members of the security services, citing that they were traitors. As for the Russians, the head of CGHQ in the UK says that they have intelligence showing that some Russian soldiers in Ukraine have refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their equipment, and in one case, accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft. There are also reports that Russian troops have resorted to eating abandoned pet dogs because they have run out of rations in Ukraine, which is pretty awful all around.

Closer to home, the Senate was debating their orders to extend hybrid sittings yesterday, as the sixth wave has been picking up steam, and one point of contention are the resources available to senators to hold sittings and committee meetings. In particular, they have a Memorandum of Understanding with the House of Commons about sharing common resources, and that MOU gives the Commons priority when it comes to resources available. This has hobbled the Senate, but even if they did try to come up with some way to add resources, the biggest and most constrained resource of them all is the finite number of simultaneous interpreters available, and we are already in a problem where as a nation, we’re not graduating enough of them to replace the attrition of those retiring, or choosing not to renew their contracts because of the worries that those same hybrid sittings are giving them permanent hearing loss because of the problems associated with the platform and the inconsistent audio equipment used by the Commons. These hybrid sittings exacerbated an already brewing problem of not enough new interpreters coming into the field, and Parliament is going to have a very big problem if they can’t find a way to incentivise more people to go into the field. We rely on simultaneous interpretation to make the place function, and if the number of interpreters falls precipitously low—because MPs and senators insisted on carrying on hybrid sittings in spite of their human cost—then we’re going to be in very big trouble indeed.

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Roundup: Mary May Simon’s tea with the Queen

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As we carry on through day twenty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we had a glimmer of good news yesterday in that the bomb shelter under that theatre in Mariupol held, and it sounds like a lot of people survived and are being dug out of the rubble. Unfortunately, it sounds like about 80 percent of Mariupol is now rubble, but Ukrainians and allies are vowing to rebuild.

Meanwhile, Canada’s mission at the UN sent out a tweet yesterday marking up and annotating a Russian resolution before the UN about the invasion that doesn’t mention the invasion, only the need for protection of civilians in “vulnerable situation.” The tweet attracted a lot of mixed reviews, but most of them fairly negative because it seems to betray a particular lack of seriousness in how we conduct our foreign affairs (and that it looks like they’re aiming for Twitter dunks).

On a different note, Her Excellency Mary May Simon told CBC that she and the Queen discussed reconciliation and the need to better teach history so that Canadians get a true history of the relationship with Indigenous people. She also said they spoke about the grifter occupation in Ottawa (which the Queen was already briefed about, because the Queen of Canada knows what is going on in her realm), and the situation in Ukraine. It was also revealed that May Simon had requested briefings from officials about the Indian Act and efforts to reform it—which is fine and not a sign that she is overstepping her role. If she wants to make reconciliation a theme of her time in office, then it’s good to have a knowledge base about the intricacies of the history of it (as an Inuk, she was under a different government system than the Indian Act). And frankly, given the expectations that were being heaped upon her to be activist when she was nominated to the position, I think that implied tone of the story of these briefings was some kind of activist move is perhaps as much of a problem as those expectations. May Simon is now on a state visit to three countries in the Middle East, starting with Dubai.

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Roundup: Reaction to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine

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Russian forces have been advancing in Ukraine, but not without opposition. Shelling continues against several Ukrainian cities and into Kyiv itself, as people are taking shelter in the metro. Closer to home, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced another round of tougher sanctions against Russian oligarchs and other key leaders, and there is talk that yet more sanctions are on the way, but it also sounds like there is some difficulty in getting all of our allies on-side, and the thing about these kinds of sanctions is that everyone needs to do them so that there aren’t loopholes that Russia can slip through. (Trudeau also announced measures to help Canadians in Ukraine get safe passage to neighbouring countries, as well as expeditated immigration processing for Ukrainians).

But one of the biggest measures—cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global financial transaction system—has not yet been implemented because Europeans are balking (though Canada has reportedly been pushing for this, along with the UK). Canada is somewhat fortunate because we are less exposed to Russian trade and money than other allies, but it’s that exposure which will make sanctions harder on Western allies the tougher they are on Russia—and that’s something that a lot of the talking heads can’t seem to get their heads around. If you look at what European countries are trying to get carve-outs for, it’s because they don’t want to lose the Russian money in their economies. And that’s a tough pill to swallow, especially as all of our economies are still recovering from the pandemic recession.

https://twitter.com/LillyResearch/status/1496964138962386945

https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374

Where this will hurt us especially is higher world oil prices, as cutting Russia out of the market will further restrict supply at a time where energy shortages in certain countries have turned to oil to fill that gap, creating demand and limiting supply. That will mean higher gasoline prices in Canada, and while these higher prices will be good for the Alberta economy (oh, look—one more boom for them to piss away), it’s going to be felt in the inflation data, which will have more people lighting their hair on fire, demanding Something Must Be Done, but they won’t come out and spell out that they mean wage and price controls, or a new NEP. Jason Kenney, unable to read the room, is trying to make this about a new pitch for Alberta’s so-called Ethical Oil™, and we have federal Conservatives demanding a fast-tracked LNG infrastructure to export to Europe, but seriously, that’s a multi-year and multi-billion-dollar investment that is going to be short-lived the fast were decarbonise our economies.

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Roundup: Proposing to ignore the virus

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In the wake of the demands by extremist-led “protests” to lift all vaccine mandates around the country, nowhere as this demand been capitulated to as fast as in Saskatchewan and Alberta, where both provinces are pretty much eliminating their mandates as soon as possible, with no consultation, and while their hospitals are still full. Federally, the Conservatives are making the same demand for this capitulation, and they’re using a bunch of specious arguments, like listing countries that are lifting their restrictions already, never mind that in most of those countries, they have better healthcare capacity than we do, and they are further along in their omicron waves than we are. Fortunately, Ontario is not rushing to join them for a change, so that’s one small favour.

What is more concerning, however, is this talking point about “learning to live with COVID,” but in abandoning all public health measures, including mask mandates, they’re not actually planning to live with COVID—they’re planning to ignore it, to let it rip, to capitulate to the virus as much as they are eager to capitulate to the extremists claiming to protest. Learning to live with the virus would mean adequate and sustainable precautions, better focus on indoor ventilation, ongoing mask mandates in indoor spaces, and so on—and the ongoing insistence on vaccination, because that’s what will save us in the long run. But that’s not what they’re proposing, because they are so keen to return to the old normal, never mind that said world no longer exists by any measure. And it’s not “following the science” to take the notion that we need to just let the virus rip at this point—it’s being intellectually dishonest and pandering to selfish instincts.

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Roundup: The “missing” PM reappears

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While things quieted down with the grifter occupation, a new cry went up on all sides, who were trying to draw Justin Trudeau out and into the fray. A narrative, fed by journalists who clearly still don’t understand what this occupation is all about, was that Trudeau was somehow “in hiding” and needed to engage with these extremists, grifters, and conspiracy theorists to end the current situation. Worse, every opposition party was adding their voice to this nonsense, insisting that “federal leadership” would resolve a situation that is clearly and explicitly that of the city’s civilian police force. Trudeau did show up in the House of Commons in the evening, during the emergency debate on the occupation, and pushed back at the Conservative narratives that the country is “divided” over this, and quite rightly repeated that Canadians stood together in the pandemic and that vaccination remains the way out, not these protests.

Meanwhile, I am growing very disturbed by the fact that my media colleagues are agitating for the prime minister to call in the military to resolve the situation, never mind that a) the power to call on the military to aid in civil powers is up to the provinces to use, not the federal government; b) the Canadian Forces are not a police force and should not be used as such, because we are not a police state, and I swear to gods I will keep posting this Battlestar Galactica clip until people get it through their heads that calling in the military is not a solution to anything. It will only feed the narrative that Trudeau is a mad dictator, which accomplishes these extremists’ goals for them. I also cannot believe that the media keeps normalizing this line of thinking, like their continued insistence that the federal government invoke the Emergencies Act, and the repeated refrain that “people don’t care about jurisdiction in a pandemic.” Jurisdiction is literally part of the rule of law. It matters. People should care. We need to stop treating this like it’s some stupid game, or that Trudeau is the premiers’ father who can just take over at any point. That’s not how laws work, and agitating otherwise because you think it’ll make a better story is really, really dangerous.

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Roundup: Recalling a committee for a dog and pony show

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The House of Commons’ access to information, privacy and ethics committee will be recalled for emergency meetings after the Conservatives were “alarmed” to hear that the Public Health Agency used anonymised mobile data to see how Canadians were responding to public health measures. The point of the data collection is to get a sense of travel patterns during these kinds of measures, and to see whether people stay at home, or how far they go, and because its anonymised, nobody can see who is doing what individually—they’re looking at patterns.

But this kind of wailing and gnashing of teeth over anonymised data is nothing new for Conservatives, who have sounded this particular alarm before when Statistics Canada was hoping to use anonymised bank data to track Canadians’ purchasing habits in a more robust and accurate way than shopping diary surveys can, and lo, that project got iced. Of course, because irony is dead, the Conservatives’ election platform had their “carbon points” plan, which would require so much itemised consumer data that it puts this kind of anonymised data to shame, but why worry about consistency or logic?

Because this is a House of Commons committee, we are guaranteed that this is going to be nothing more than a dog and pony show. If they agree to hold a study on this—which it’s not yet guaranteed—it’s going to be hauling public health officials before committee and subjecting them to ridiculous questions that have little to do with this particular issue, in the hopes of catching them out on something, and attempts to build some kind of conspiracy theory that the government was trying to play Big Brother during the pandemic, and it will balloon from there until the point where the government has had enough and starts filibustering the increasingly unreasonable demands by opposition members, and the committee will grind to a halt. Because that’s how this kind of thing happens every time, because our MPs are more concerned with being partisan dicks on committees than actually doing their jobs of accountability. But maybe I’m just getting cynical about the current state of affairs in federal politics.

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Roundup: At long last, the mandate letters

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On what turned out to be the final sitting day of 2021 for the House of Commons, the prime minister finally released the mandate letters for his ministers, nearly three months after the election, and two after they were sworn in to their new jobs. I’m not sure how well I can articulate the utter absurdity of the situation, because there is really no excuse why it took this long (let along why it took him as long as it did to swear in his Cabinet or to summon Parliament). The fact that they were released after the House agreed to rise at the end of the sitting day means that there can be no interrogation of these letters by the opposition until January 31st, which is way too long.

As for the letters themselves, there is a theme among them about building a more inclusive and fair country, and for tangible results to be better communicated to Canadians (you think?). Some of the highlights include:

  • Ordering several ministers to take a harder line on trade tensions with the US
  • Resurrecting legislation on CanCon requirements for the internet and having web giants pay news outlets, as well as modernising the CBC
  • Renewed action to fighting systemic racism, along with a number of initiatives directed toward the Black community
  • Implementing UNDRIP in all decisions
  • Developing a new cyber-security strategy

No doubt more attention will be paid to these letters over the coming days, and we’ll see how much misunderstanding comes from them (recall the line about not creating new permanent spending programmes from Chrystia Freeland’s previous letter which people took to mean all rather than in the context of COVID supports). It also looks like we’re getting talking heads grousing about inclusivity as though it were somehow a distraction from economic growth when inclusive growth is where the country needs to be headed to head off economic challenges plaguing us since before the pandemic.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1471544703212404736

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Roundup: Blockbuster jobs numbers—mostly

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Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey numbers yesterday, and they were very good—four times as many jobs were created as had been forecast by economists. All of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered and more, and unemployment is very nearly as low as it was before the pandemic began (at which point we were at record lows, around statistical “full employment”), and it was even noted that “core-aged” women had their highest ever employment levels. Things are turning around. Mostly.

There are still a lot of vacancies and there is a mismatch between jobs available and the skills that unemployed workers possess, and while the government is pouring money into training, that takes time. And labour shortages mean wages are likely to continue to increase (and if anyone says they’re stagnant, they are either lying or haven’t read the data). As well, productivity has taken a dive over the last quarter, so that will matter as well. Conservatives are claiming that the increase in jobs is as a result of the majority of pandemic benefits ending, but I’m not sure there is a direct comparison that can be made given the skills mismatches that are in the economy (and which pre-date the pandemic, which was one of the reasons why the Bank of Canada, among others, was making a concerted effort to call for inclusive growth). There is work still to do, but the government is feeling pretty good about the data.

Meanwhile, here are some economists’ takes to consider:

https://twitter.com/stephen_tapp/status/1466766974365622275

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1466771813594140675

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