Roundup: Lowering expectations even further

Prime minister Mark Carney spent the morning with the premiers in Muskoka as part of their meeting, and proceeded to lower expectations even further than they already are. The message of the day was that he’s only going to take the “best deal” in negotiations with the US, and that matters more than the August 1st deadline, which is already beyond the “deadline” that was agreed to in Kananaskis, and so long as talks are ongoing, retaliation measures continue to also be pushed back so that American bullying can continue unabated. But the kind of deal he wants isn’t going to be available, because this is Trump, and we’re just not going to get a deal that “preserves, reinforces and stabilises” the trade relationship, because Trump does not want that, nor do we want to keep tying ourselves to a failing autocratic regime whose economy is increasingly defined by the chaos of its leader.

We also learned that he stayed at Doug Ford’s cottage the night before, and that they stayed up talking past midnight, and Ford just gushed like a schoolgirl about Carney’s business background, and said that he would hand the keys of a business over to the prime minister (and said “business” about fifty more times), all of which was a little bit unseemly. We know that Ford continues to fancy himself a “businessman” because he inherited part of his father’s label business, but this constant fawning over anyone with a business background is a little bit unbecoming, particularly if you pay any bit of attention to what happens.

Meanwhile, Ford also signed an MOU with Danielle Smith and Scott Moe about building pipelines to Ontario and James Bay (which is never going to happen because it’s too shallow for tanker traffic), amidst the usual nonsense about federal environmental laws that they are trying to be rid of. There are no proponents for these pipelines, because there is no economic case for them. And if Carney is true to his word and says there’s no PONIs without Indigenous buy-in or consent, well, the pipeline Smith wants to the northwest coast of BC won’t happen because the First Nations in the area do not want one. Nevertheless, I think Andrew Leach is right in that they’re stacking up a wish list they’ll never meet in order to keep blaming the federal government, because that’s what they do best.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine lost one of their French Mirage fighters due to equipment failure, but the pilot was able to safely eject. There were protests in Kyiv because president Zelenskyy signed a law that rolled back the independence of two anti-corruption bodies and placed them under executive control, which was seen largely as his first major unforced error, and give ammunition to Putin supporters.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1947576960110014850

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Roundup: It’s not five percent

Now that the big NATO summit is over, can we please stop saying that the commitment is to five percent defence spending? Because it’s not. It’s 3.5 percent within a decade, but the whole other 1.5 percent is stuffing a whole lot of things to pad the numbers, whether it’s ports, or airports, or critical mineral mines. It’s creative accounting designed to make Trump think everyone is doing more (because he doesn’t understand NATO and tries to treat it like a protection racket), from a summit that was pretty much an exercise in placating him at all costs. (Takeaways more broadly, and for Canada specifically).

I’m much more concerned about Carney’s vague talk that this spending means trade-offs and possible cuts in other areas, but won’t give any examples of what that could look like. I’m especially concerned because of the way he’s talked about things like using AI, which is entirely in the vein of his having bought into the hype, and what that will inevitably mean are job cuts/losses, and a very, very costly mistake by government when it turns out that AI can’t do what they were sold on it doing for them, and it will compound all of those problems. I’m also not convinced about all of those future revenues that he thinks critical minerals are going to bring in, which sounds a little too much like counting chickens before they’ve hatched, and so on.

Bill C-5 in the Senate

Bill C-5 began deliberations in the Senate yesterday, and passed second reading on a pro forma voice vote, and will have study in committee of the whole today. There was a minor bit of disruption as Senator Patrick Brazeau collapsed from an unspecified “medical event” as he was asking questions to Senator Housakos following his speech as opposition leader, but we’re going to see a lot of hand-wringing about whether the Senate will actually amend the bill. There is pressure from the AFN national chief to slow the bill down, but there will be pressure from both the Government Leader and the Conservatives to pass it as quickly as possible, without amendments, and we’ll hear the usual doom arguments about how it would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to recall the House of Commons if they did amend it—never mind that the world would not end if the bill didn’t pass until September.

Meanwhile, we see columnists like Tanya Talaga once again calling on the Governor General to deny royal assent to the bill, and I just can’t. This is actual journalistic malpractice. She can’t deny royal assent. It goes against every tenet of Responsible Government, and if she did, it would be a constitutional crisis of absolutely epic proportions. If it passes and you disagree with it, challenge it in the courts. That’s how the system works. But that column should not have been published, and the editors should have either told her to take out the references to the GG going outside of her authority, or the column should have been spiked. There is absolutely no excuse for this.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy had a meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the NATO summit (in a more “calibrated” wardrobe), and Trump said he would “consider” more Patriot missiles, but that means absolutely nothing.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1937826703255994570

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Senate QP: Questions about NATO math

I haven’t been able to attend Senate Question Period in years as the move to a separate building, and a shift of their usual timing to coincide with Commons QP have kept me away, as has the fact that they pretty much always rise at the same time as the Commons, which never used to be the practice, and for which I write a peevish column at the start of every summer. This year, however, they are sitting later to pass Bill C-5, so I am actually able to take it in. It’s been a long time since I’ve been here.

Taking in #SenQP for the first time in *years*.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-06-25T18:04:29.258Z

After statements and routine proceedings, things got underway in earnest as  Senator Housakos led off, and he raised the PBO saying that he has received little information on the NATO two percent announcement, and that they have now agreed to the five percent goal at this week’s summit, And wondered how they could take this credibly. Senator Gold lamented that there was underfunding over decades, and that this was because of a changing world, but also noted that only 3.5 percent of that was over a decade, while the other 1.5 percent was for other things. Housakos again questioned the credibility of the numbers, and Gold returned to the boilerplate assurances they are doing what they can, but also noted that DND hasn’t been able to spend their current allocations.

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Roundup: A few amendments, but very telling ones

It seems that Bill C-5 did not emerge from committee unscathed, as the opposition forced a number of amendments to the bill through, most of them creating an added list of laws that the government cannot opt itself out of using the giant Henry VIII clause that is the second half of said bill. The issue here? That aside from the Indian Act being one of those laws, the remainder are mostly done for the theatre of the Conservatives (and Bloc to a lesser extent) putting on a show about trying to keep said Henry VIII clause being used in a corrupt manner. To that end, the laws protected from opt-outs include:

  • Access to Information Act,
  • Lobbying Act,
  • Canada Elections Act,
  • Criminal Code,
  • Conflict of Interest Act,
  • Investment Canada Act,
  • Foreign Influence Transparency and Accountability Act,
  • Extractive Sector Transparency Measures Act,
  • Railway Safety Act,
  • Trade Unions Act,
  • Explosives Act,
  • Hazardous Products Act,
  • Indian Act,
  • Auditor General Act, or
  • Official Languages Act

Do you notice what’s missing? Any kind of environmental laws, which the Conservatives continue to demand be repealed, or any kind of UNDRIP legislation, which would ensure free, prior and informed consent from Indigenous people when it comes to these projects.

The government says they are considering the amendments and whether to support their adoption or not (but given that every opposition party has lined up behind them, they may not have a choice), but the fact remains that they have refused adequate consultation with Indigenous people in developing and passing this legislation (they could barely be arsed to hear from one Indigenous witness at committee, let along several rights-holders), or that they are damaging the trust the government spent the past decade trying to rebuild. Just amateur galaxy-brained antics that you would think a government that is ten years into their time in office would actually have learned a lesson or two by this point.

Meanwhile, you have some Indigenous voices calling on the Governor General to delay or to deny royal assent for Bill C-5, which is not going to happen. If it did, it would cause a constitutional crisis, and I can’t believe we need to keep saying this every time someone makes the suggestion because they don’t understand how Responsible Government works. This is a political problem, and it demands a political solution, not one where you pull out the constitutional fire extinguisher and try to wield it. That’s not how this works, and people need to both stop suggesting it, and journalists need to stop taking this kind of talk seriously. Just stop it.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy says that the increasing attacks demonstrate why more pressure needs to be applied to Russia to force a ceasefire. There was another POW swap yesterday, but no word on how many were exchanged on either side.

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QP: Faux shock that not everyone gets a maximum tax break

Fresh from the G7 summit, and with the days in the sitting nearly expired, the prime minister was present for QP today, as were the other leaders. Andrew Scheer was present, but left it up to Jasraj Hallan to lead off, and he raised the PBO’s calculation that most people won’t get the full $850 savings thanks to the tax cut, which he insisted was a broken promise, but in a way that was full of accusations and overwrought invective. Mark Carney played down what the PBO said and pointed out that the Conservatives voted for the bill. Hallan took another swipe at Carney and accused the government of raising the prices of groceries, rising crime, and said that Carney was “on his knees” for Trump and demanded a budget. Carney said that a tax cut is for those who pay taxes, with 22 million Canadians pay, and that the maximum was $850. Michael Barrett took over to accuse the PM of conflicts of interest, to which Carney said that unlike the member opposite, he ways proud to have been in the private sector and insisted that that he did have conflict screens in place. Barrett took exception, saying that he served in uniform, and again accused Carney of conflicts. Carney responded by patting himself on the back for their recent increased military spending commitment. Gérard Deltell returned to the PBO assertion French, and Carney repeated that the maximum was indeed $850, and for up to 22 million Canadians. Deltell tried to equate this to a Brookfield statement, and Carney turned to a paean about their single Canadian economy bill.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and didn’t believe there was any connection between the haste of Bill C-5 and the trade war. Carney insisted that there was a connection, particularly for the steel and aluminium industries, because they needed to create demand domestically. Blanchet said that projects take years so there couldn’t be a direct link, but Carney insisted that because projects take too long, they needed this legislation. Blanchet pointed out that there as supposed to be some movement with Trump at the G7, to which Carney pointed that we have some of the lowest tariff rates with the Americans, but there was still more to do.

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QP: Spinning an EV conspiracy

The prime minister was still on his way back from hosting the G7 in Kananaskis, and the Commons was moving along without him being there on a Wednesday. The other leaders were present, and Andrew Scheer did lead off today, and he returned to the party’s mendacious talking points about the supposed “insane” ban on gas-powered vehicles (which is not actually a ban), and he claimed that favourite vehicles will be “illegal,” and that the government is pricing people out of buying a vehicle. Julie Dabrusin started with the fact there is no ban, before lamenting that the Conservatives are talking down the auto sector at a time when it is under threat from Trump tariffs. Scheer insisted there is a ban, and that it would “devastate” the auto sector, blamed Carney for not getting a deal on tariffs with Trump, and claimed the “ban” on gas-powered vehicles would kill 90,000 jobs. Dabrusin praised the auto sector and praised the fact that EVs are cheaper to operate and maintain. Scheer then tried to tie this to a conspiracy about Brookfield and insisted this was about Carney’s private interests. Evan Solomon got up to recite a script about how much the government invested in the auto sector. Pierre Paul-Hus read the French script that this was taking away choice. Dabrusin reminded him that they are not banning vehicles, and that Quebec already has regulations about access ps to EVs. Paul-Hus claimed this was about trying to “control” Canadians, and Dabrusin repeated that they are not banning gas-powered vehicles, and that EVs are cheaper to maintain. Paul-Hus said that the government tried to “control” people through the carbon levy, and wanted this scrapped as well. Dabrusin called this out as absurd, and praised the auto sector.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he decried the concessions made around the border and defence, and worried that the PM came away from the G7 “empty handed.” Dominic LeBlanc said that Carney’s meeting with Trump was “constructive,” and that he was convinced they made progress. Blanchet decried Bill C-5, and LeBlanc raised the tariff war and insisted that they would respect environmental regulations and First Nations. Blanchet insisted that C-5 wouldn’t do what they claim, and Chrystia Freeland stood up to take exception to this assertion.

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QP: Gas-powered nonsense

With the G7 still ongoing in Kananaskis, minus Trump, things continued apace back in Ottawa as the government continues to bulldoze through its One Canada Economy bill (which remains a very big problem). Andrew Scheer was once again present but silent, leaving it up to Chris Warkentin to lead off, who raised the party’s Supply Day motion about ending the government’s supposed ban on gas-powered vehicles, which is not a ban, but it’s not like they have any real compunction to tell the truth. Julie Dabrusin boggled that the Conservatives would attack the auto industry like this. Warkentin shot back with claims that a report said that there could be 50,000 job losses in the auto industry because of trade uncertainty (read: Trump’s capricious tariffs), and he demanded the government “end the insanity” of the supposed “radical” ban on gas-powered engines. François-Philippe Champagne insisted that they would take no lessons from the Conservatives, and he praised the record investment in the auto sector and the EV supply chain. Rachael Thomas took over, and she demanded freedom of choice for vehicles people drive, and that EVs don’t fit the needs of Canadian families. Dabrusin said that she would stand up for the auto industry and for being climate-competitive, as EV sales are up globally. Thomas gave another overwrought plea to “stop making the vehicles auto workers are producing illegally,” and claimed that farmers can’t use EVs (which is complete bullshit). Dabrusin reminded her that the characterisation is wrong, and that they are not banning gas-powered vehicles (and it only took her until the fourth answer to point this out), but this was support for the EV sector, which has seen growing demand. Luc Berthold read the same mendacious script in French, and worried about the lack of snowmobiles, ATVs and F-150s. Champagne patted himself on the back for bringing Quebec into the auto industry and that they are creating jobs in the industry of the future. Berthold worried that cold weather cuts battery power of EVs, and Dabrusin praised the EV industry and Quebec’s adoption.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and accused the government of using the G7 as a distraction as they ram through Bill C-5, and that this was something so heavy-handed that it would embarrass Stephen Harper. Mandy Gull-Masty insisted that there would be “exhaustive” consultation with Indigenous people as part of this. Normandin hoped that there were more Liberals who were uncommitted with this bill and what it represents, but Stephen MacKinnon insisted that they got elected to do just this. (Erm…) Patrick Bonin took over to also decry that the Henry VIII clause in the bill is so open-ended that they could suspend any law. Dabrusin said that Canadians asked the government to build a strong economy, and to embark on projects of national importance while they still protect the environment.

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Roundup: Countdown to a trade deal?

Even before the G7 summit officially got underway, prime minister Mark Carney had his bilateral meeting with Trump, and it was this somewhat awkward situation where Trump defended having a “tariff concept” and said that Carney had a “more complicated” plan (how could “free trade” be more complicated?”) but there was word that talks were “accelerating,” and later in the day, we got a readout from that conversation that said that they were aiming to get a trade deal within 30 days, so no pressure there (not that you could really accept such a deal for the paper it’s written on because this is Trump and he doesn’t honour his agreements). Trump also claimed to have signed a trade deal with the UK (which he called the EU at the time), and held up a blank page with his signature on it. So that…happened.

Holy crap. The US-UK trade deal is a blank sheet of paper and only Trump signed it. (Genuine screen grab).

Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) 2025-06-17T00:13:56.113Z

The rest of the summit took place, and then suddenly Trump decided he needed to leave early, right after the Heads of Government dinner, citing important business in Washington, with allusions to the Israel-Iran conflict, but he did wind up signing a joint communiqué that calls for de-escalation in said conflict, so we’ll see how that holds up. Trump leaving early does mean that he won’t be around the arrival of either Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, who had hoped to have bilateral meetings with Trump on the sidelines of the summit, so that does blow a hole in what they expected to come for, particularly for Sheinbaum who rarely travels.

Meanwhile, here are some of the highlights of the day. Tsuut’ina Nation council member Steven Crowchild spoke about his meeting with Trump during his arrival in Calgary. EU officials confirmed that Carney is likely to sign a defence procurement agreement with them during his visit to Brussels in two weeks.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-16T22:08:16.537Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone and missile attack struck Kyiv in the early morning hours, wounding at least twenty. Ukraine received another 1,245 bodies, ending this repatriation agreement, bringing the total to over 6000 war dead.

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QP: Attacking Gregor Robertson’s real estate holdings

While the G7 summit was happening in Kananaskis, things in Ottawa were heating up over a closure motion on the One Canada Economy bill. Andrew Scheer was here but didn’t lead, and left it up to Melissa Lantsman to lead off, and her decried environmental legislation that is supposedly killing energy projects, and demanded that legislation be repealed. Tim Hodgson urged her to pass the One Canadian Economy Bill. Lantsman urged him to repeal all environmental legislation, and Hodgson said that industry and unions supported their bill. Jasraj Hallan took over to also demand that “radical” environmental laws be repealed, and this time Julie Dabrusin took over and said that becoming an energy superpower needs to ensure projects are low cost, low risk and low carbon. Hallan tried again and got much the same answer. Gérard took over in French to also demand that environmental legislation be repealed, and this time Steven MacKinnon noted that their electoral platform was predicated on passing this bill. Deltell tried again, and got much the same answer.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she decried the “gag order” in Bill C-5 that gives the prime minister exclusive power to define projects in the national interest, and said this as much like Poilievre got elected. François-Philippe Champagne stood up to praise the bill. Normandin again sniped that this was essentially like getting the Conservatives elected, and MacKinnon got up to insist that everyone was behind this bill. Patrick Bonin repeated the same concern about the bill, and had to be warned about unparliamentary language. MacKinnon got back up to essentially taunt that the Liberals won the election.

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QP: Day three of the same GC Strategies response

As the countdown to the G7 summit was on, the PM was not in the House for Question Period today, nor was Andrew Scheer. That left it up to Leslyn Lewis to lead off, raising their Supply Day motion to force GC Strategies to repay their contracts. Anita Anand said she would get go the question, but wanted to raise their air crash in India that included one Canadian aboard. Lewis also extended condolences, before repeating her question. This time, Joël Lightbound recited the talking points about barring GC Strategies, and that there are RCMP investigations and legal actions ongoing. Bob Zimmer read the same script, and demanded support for their motion. Lightbound released his same response. Zimmer said that the answer wouldn’t cut it, but got much the same response. Dominique Vien recited the French version of the same script, and Lightbound recited his same points en français. Vien tried again, and got the same answer one last time. 

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and decried that the government is planning to invoke closure on Bill C-5, which would steamroll fossil fuel projects and gut environmental assessments. Steven MacKinnon insisted that this was necessary in response to the trade war that the Americans started. Normandin corrected stated that this bill needed more study, and MacKinnon responded that Quebec voted for 44 Liberal MPs, as though that justified a Henry VIII clause in that bill. Patrick Bonin took over and said those 44 Quebec Liberals voted to steal from Quebec when they voted against the Bloc motion to extend the rebates for Quebeckers. This time Steven Guilbeault pointed out that there is still an industrial pricing system, and that Quebec’s price under cap-and-trade is below the price in the rest of the country.

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