Tag Archives: Trade

Roundup: Brison’s long farewell

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It was a bit of a surprise yesterday morning, as Treasury Board president Scott Brison announced that he was resigning his cabinet position because he decided that after 22 years in elected politics, he had decided he wasn’t going to run again this fall. His reasons were mostly that it was time for something new, and the fact that he now has a young family – something that was largely inconceivable when he first got into politics, then as a Progressive Conservative – though that hasn’t stopped everyone from speculating that this has something to do with the upcoming trial of VADM Mark Norman, given that Norman’s lawyers are trying to insinuate that Brison had tried to politically interfere with the procurement process for the interim naval supply ship. (Brison denies this, and he’s not the one on trial, but here’s a thread on what this decision means on his ability to testify). One can’t also help but noting that this will be a bit of a blow for Trudeau as well, as one of his most experienced and competent ministers will be leaving the Cabinet table, and that will matter given the fact that there are still too many ministers that haven’t quite grown into their responsibilities yet.

This, of course, means that we’re now fully into Cabinet shuffle speculation, given that there is one coming on Monday to replace Brison. Every other member of Cabinet, save Jody Wilson-Raybould, has confirmed that they plan to run again in the next election (and Wilson-Raybould likely will as well – she was out of the country and didn’t respond to questions), so it’s unlikely that anyone else will be dropped at this point, particularly given the last shuffle wasn’t too long ago, so it’s an open question as to who will be tapped to replace Brison, and who will take the Treasury Board file.

On a personal note, Brison played a big part in my early days on the Hill, when I was writing primarily for LGBT outlets. When I was the Ottawa correspondent – and later political editor – for the now defunct Outlooks magazine, I had a monthly segment where I would ask Brison, Senator Nancy Ruth, and NDP MP Bill Siksay (later Randall Garrison after Siksay retired) a question every month to get queer perspectives from the three main parties, and that helped me to grow into the journalist that I am today. He was always generous with his time, and incredibly patient with my rookie status, and I will forever be grateful for that.

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Roundup: A subdued oil price shock

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The Bank of Canada decided to hold on raising interest rates yesterday, but there were some very interesting things in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report that haven’t been widely reported on, and much of that was the whole section in the report on the state of the oil industry in Canada. (It’s pages 9 and 10 of the report – PDF here). Essentially, for all of the talk about economic doom for the current state of oil prices and the price differential, this current price shock is affecting the Canadian economy at a quarter of what it did in the 2014-2016 price shock, and there are a couple of reasons for that. One of them is that the oil sector is no longer as big of a part of the Canadian economy as it was then – it’s currently worth 3.5 percent of our GDP, while it was six percent just a few years ago. That’s fairly significant. As well, after the previous price shock, most energy firms are better equipped to handle the low-price environment thanks to innovation, improved efficiency and the fact that they already cut overhead costs. Add to that, our low dollar is providing a buffer effect because it supports non-energy exports and employment. In other words, while it’s softened the economy a little over the past quarter and the current one, this is projected to be shrugged off as the rest of the economy continues to pick up steam, and we’re likely to continue growing at a greater pace, because the rest of the economy continues to be running close to capacity. Even some of the areas of potential slack that have been identified, such as lower-than-expected wage growth, are mostly because the situation in Alberta is dragging down the national average. So perhaps it’s not all doom after all.

One other particular note from the morning was that Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz made a couple of remarks around his hometown of Oshawa, and how it’s managed to weather previous plant closures and how its resilience means it will likely weather the pending closure of the GM plant as well as it did previously.

Meanwhile, Kevin Carmichael walks us through the morning’s decision, and some of the reaction to it.

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Roundup: A bad case for a dumb idea

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The flirtation with separatist sentiment in Alberta is bringing all the boys to the yard, and suddenly they’re all trying to make a cockamamie case for why this is a real threat. Yesterday it was respected tax economist Jack Mintz who decided to stray way outside of his lane, and insist that Alberta has a better case for this than Great Britain does with Bexit, which is patent nonsense both on its face, and in every single one of his nonsense arguments. And yet, in the rush to pander to the angry sentiment in Alberta and to offer up simplistic solutions and snake oil to what is a series of protracted (and in some cases intractable) problems that require time and patience to resolve. Mintz later went on the CBC to defend his column, and made a bunch of other nonsense arguments that presumes that the US would be a better customer for Alberta oil…despite that the actual pipeline capacity going from Alberta to the US is minimal and don’t think they could easily build more if they can’t even get Keystone XL over the finish line there.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1075414877890502656

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1075415929394102272

Meanwhile, Tyler Dawson makes the case that such a separatist movement not only lacks logic, it also lacks a real leader or the intellectual heft to actually make it something viable. Andrew Leach takes Mintz to task on his assumptions about demand for Alberta oil. Jen Gerson tells Alberta that while they have legitimate grievances, the insistence that Ottawa is simply out to get them risks becoming a pathology, while the separation talk is terrible, and simply burning the system down won’t help anyone. Can I get an amen up in here?

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1075469089450078208

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Roundup: $1.6 Billion instead of a magic wand

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Yesterday, the federal government announced $1.6 billion in help for the Alberta energy sector – but insisted it’s not a subsidy. $1 billion of it was in loans for exporters to invest in technologies and address working capital needs or exploring new markets; $500 million from to help smaller oil and gas businesses weather the uncertainty, $50 million from the Clean Growth Program, and $100 million in economic diversification projects. It wasn’t something like federal funding for companies to remediate orphan wells, for example. And predictably, Rachel Notley and various other Conservatives immediately dismissed this as not asking for money but wanting “the handcuffs removed,” which seems to me to be code for waving a magic wand to get pipelines built immediately, despite the fact that unless they plan to bulldoze through the Indigenous consultation process, is something the government can’t do. And Andrew Scheer? He went full drama queen with a petulant press release that accused Trudeau of trying to destroy Alberta, sounding very much like a jealous suitor wailing “He can’t love you like I will!”

More to the point, the federal government can’t just ram through the approvals for Trans Mountain, given that the last time they tried to cut corners, the Federal Court of Appeal objected and rescinded their approvals and would do so again, hence why they’re going the route of doing what the court laid out, and that takes time. There is no magic wand. Killing Bill C-69 won’t solve anything because the current system isn’t working, and while the bill is flawed and open to amendment at the Senate, Conservative senators have not consented to any committee hearings before the Senate’s slated (late) return in February (and I have heard various reasons for this, both in opposition to the bill, and because they are pushing back against the committee chair, who they accuse of doing the bidding of Senator Peter Harder). The tanker ban on BC’s north coast? That’s demanded by many of the coastal First Nations. Scrapping the carbon tax? Won’t change anything because it has nothing to do with the oil price differential and oil companies have been asking for a carbon price so that they can have predictability when it comes to climate demands. And then there’s the bogeyman about foreign funded “paid protesters” that the Conservatives blame for everything, despite the fact that they don’t control the courts or the economics of projects. That won’t stop Scheer or Jason Kenney from offering the people of Alberta another vial of snake oil, promising quick approval on pipelines that they can’t actually deliver on.

Meanwhile, amidst more lies and grievance narratives around the federal equalisation programme, Trevor Tombe drops a reality bomb about how the system works and why. Because amidst the demands for magic wands and offering snake oil, the Jason Kenneys of this country will continue to lie about how equalisation works to keep people angry in the hopes of getting electoral advantage for it. We need more people to tell the truth about the system if we’re to keep a lid on the anger and try to do something meaningful to address it rather than simply bow to grievance culture and fabrications.

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Roundup: Starting the Big Move

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Yesterday was the final day that Centre Block was officially in operation. As of today, the big move starts happening, starting with the House of Commons chamber, and will be followed by the other major offices, like the Speaker, the prime minister and leader of the opposition, with the heritage furniture that will continue to be in use. And once that’s done and the building is empty, they can start to open up walls and ceilings to figure out the state of the building, and determine what needs to be done in terms of renovations and restorations, and from that point determine a price tag and timeline. At present, everything is just a guess, so we’ll have to stay tuned. (Here’s a photo gallery of the current House of Commons and Senate, and the new Commons).

The Senate, however, is a different story. Recent testing of the new chamber brought to light the fact that there are acoustic problems related to sound leakage that were first identified two years ago, and despite assurances from Public Works, it wasn’t addressed. That means they have to install new sound baffles which will delay the move by several weeks, which means that there will be even fewer weeks for the Senate to address its full Order Paper in the New Year. Committees can still meet in the meantime, but it seems the Conservatives have decided to engage in some gamesmanship over Bill C-69, which has the Independent senators are complaining about stall tactics.

Meanwhile, here is a lengthy thread looking at the new Senate building, and six facts about the building, its history, and the new renovations.

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QP: All about Scheer

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For what might be the final QP of the year, the galleries were full — press gallery included — and the benches were full. Andrew Scheer led off, repeating yesterday’s lead around the PBO’s contention that the deficit could be higher than reported. Trudeau got up and recited by rote his well-worn talking points about investing in Canadians and making life better for the Middle Class™. Scheer switched to English to ask again, and Trudeau hit back about “phoney budget balance” the Conservatives delivered that hurt veterans and families. Scheer accused him of offering falsehoods about the Conservative record (which is rich coming from Scheer, whose capacity for mistruth is quickly becoming legendary) before demanding a balanced budget. Trudeau castigated the Conservative record on growth while his government oversaw growth. Scheer insisted that Trudeau inherited a good economy (not true), to which Trudeau found it curious that Scheer wanted to double down on a plan that Canadians rejected in 2015. Scheer retorted that it was Trudeau who was doubling down on a failed plan before calling him a trust fund baby, and Trudeau replied that you can’t grow the economy with cuts to services, and listed the investments they made that led to record-low unemployment. Guy Caron was up next for for the NDP, and he worried that the CRA has not recouped anything from the Panama Papers. Trudeau picked up a script to read about the investments made in CRA to combat tax evasion, and that CRA has risk-assessed over 80 percent of the 3000 identified files and that criminal investigations were ongoing. Caron switched to French to reiterate the question, and Trudeau read the French version of the same script. François Choquette worried about Canada’s climate performance, to which Trudeau, sans script, talked about putting a price on pollution and helping families adapt. Linda Duncan repeated the question in English, and Trudeau grabbed a script to list measures they have made and investments made.

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Roundup: Sorry for the service interruption

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Hey everyone – sorry for the service interruption! Malware sucks. Fortunately, it’s been taken care of and I have new preventative measures to ensure that it won’t happen again in the future, but that also costs me a lot more money to run this site than it used to, so if you can, please consider becoming a patron (and you get some exclusive content to go along with your support). Thanks again for your patience with this.

Good reads:

  • This week’s first ministers’ meeting is expected to get testy, and lo, the oil and gas sector is not explicitly on the agenda (to which Trudeau insists it’ll get discussed).
  • Oh, look! Data on rural work camps and violence against women! It’s something that does happen, despite the Conservatives deriding the association made.
  • Dairy producers are the beneficiaries of import quotas under TPP rules (and lo, I wrote about this being likely two months ago based on the CETA experience).
  • Federal lawyers are objecting to the UCP trying to join the Saskatchewan court challenge on carbon taxes. (It is unusual for opposition parties to be party to a case).
  • A lot of doubt is being raised as to whether the government will actually end arms sales to Saudi Arabia.
  • Apparently Canada’s “feminist” foreign aid policy is too unfocused and spread too thin to have a meaningful effect (not to mention is underfunded).
  • The Commons foreign affairs committee was supposed to have an in-camera meeting with Chinese officials, but that has been cancelled.
  • The Privacy Commissioner is calling for tougher digital privacy laws.
  • Environment Canada is an outlier in that it generally doesn’t track the e-waste of its weather balloons (in part because it’s too costly as we’re a vast country).
  • The CFO of Hwawei was arrested in Vancouver for extradition to the United States, and that could trigger backlash from China.
  • Raj Grewal’s lawyer says that all of Grewal’s gambling loans were from friends and family, and are entirely traceable.
  • Ontario’s chief controller resigned after she refused to sign the Ford government’s attempt to sell the “true” size of the deficit as $15 billion.
  • The New Brunswick premier wants Energy East to be revived, but TransCanada isn’t interested. It’s like there are economics at play!
  • Kevin Carmichael looks at the Bank of Canada’s sudden caution on raising interest rates, in large part because of the oil price shock.
  • Colby Cosh looks into Statistics Canada’s programme of testing municipal wastewater for signs of cannabis consumption.
  • Chantal Hébert looks at the federal-provincial  battles over pipelines, that will play out well after the next election.
  • Chris Selley disputes that there’s a crisis around the French language in Ontario.
  • Andrew Coyne looks at how far Andrew Scheer is willing to go to get the far right vote on the immigration issue as he rails against the UN global migration compact.

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QP: Talking to the folks at home

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Caucus day, and the benches were full, with all of the leaders present. Andrew Scheer led off, and he decided to re-litigate the cancellation of Northern Gateway, and demanded that it be revived. Justin Trudeau responded by reading quotes from the Federal Court of Appeal decision, and saying that the Conservatives treat the Duty to Consult as a suggestion. Scheer insisted that Indigenous communities would benefit from Northern Gateway, and Trudeau repeated that they didn’t understand that they need to work with Indigenous communities and scientists to ensure that projects get built in the right way. Scheer switched to French to demand the full guest list for the India trip, to which Trudeau congratulated the members of NSICOP for their work and that they accepted their recommendations. Scheer switched to English to raise the allegations around Navdeep Bains and the Brampton land deal — despite Bains’ repeated denials. Trudeau took the opportunity to tell the folks at home that parliamentary privilege means Scheer can say anything he wants inside the House without fear of prosecution, but the real test was if he repeated it outside. Scheer piled on the list of Liberal ethical lapses, and Trudeau again addressed the people at home to say that while the role of the opposition is to hold government to account, the current party across the way was more content with smears and innuendo. Guy Caron was up next, and demanded action for missing and murdered Indigenous women, to which Trudeau listed the measures they have taken to date. Caron demanded a national action plan, and Trudeau said that while there was work to do, they were continuing make progress. Sheri Benson wanted the PM to meet with petitioners around the MMIW inquiry, to which Trudeau read a statement about the Inquiry’s mandate and listed some of the investments made. Benson asked again, and Trudeau noted the extension of the Inquiry’s time, mandate and added funding.

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Roundup: Courting the tinfoil hat crowd

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Over the past few days, the Conservatives have been delving into tinfoil hat territory in their attempts to stir up panic and anger toward the UN compact on global migration, which Canada plans to sign next week in Morocco. According to the Conservatives, this non-binding political declaration will somehow erode Canadian sovereignty and be tantamount to “border erasure,” and that if you listen to the Twitter trolls picking up on Andrew Scheer and Michelle Rempel’s posts about this, it will make criticizing immigration a “hate crime.” All of which is complete and utter bullshit, and even Chris Alexander, one-time Harper-era immigration minister, calls this out as factually incorrect. And yet, the Conservatives plan to use their Supply Day today to force a vote on this very issue so that they can express performative shock and dismay when the Liberals vote it down.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1070071215384080389

While Justin Trudeau and Ahmed Hussen have quite rightly called the Conservatives out on this issue as repeating Rebel Media talking points, I have to see this as yet another example of Conservatives not only shamelessly lying to score points, but trying to dip their toe into extremist territory, and the belief that they can just “just enough” extremist language and talking points to try and stir up enough anger and paranoia that they think it will move their poll numbers, but no white supremacists or xenophobes please, “we believe in orderly immigration.” And of course, real life doesn’t work that way, and they wind up stirring up elements that they say they disavow, but continue to wink at because they think it’ll get some kind of benefit out of it.

The other theory raised about why the Conservatives are going full steam on this issue is because they’re trying to head off Maxime Bernier, who is also trolling on this particular bit of lunacy. Why they think this would be a good strategy, I’m not entirely sure, but it’s not as harmless as they might think it is, and that should be concerning to everyone.

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QP: Didn’t request any redactions

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Both Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer were present for a change, and Scheer led off by concern trolling Trudeau’s comments about the negative impacts on rural and remote communities when large numbers of construction workers come in, and demanded gender-based analyses of the cancellation of Northern Gateway and importing oil from Saudi Arabia. Trudeau responded with a list of projects the government approved before adding that some projects can have different impacts. Scheer railed about the jobs lost when Northern Gateway didn’t go ahead, to which Trudeau reminded him of the record unemployment but stated that they were looking to help Alberta to do well. Scheer demanded Northern Gateway be reinstated, to which Trudeau read quotes from the Federal Court of Appeal decision on why it wasn’t approved. Scheer demanded again that Northern Gateway be reinstated, and Trudeau called them out for bluster that wouldn’t help Alberta, reminding them that even if the project was acceptable, it would be years before it would get resources to markets. Scheer then changed gears and put on his tinfoil hat about the UN global compact on migration, to which Trudeau accused him of quoting Rebel Media, and praised Canada’s diversity. Guy Caron was up next, and railed about the redactions in the NSICOP report, to which Trudeau told him that neither he nor his office was involved in the redaction, but they took the advice of security officials. Caron then tried to wedge in the Raj Grewal investigation as an excuse for redaction, and Trudeau repeated his answer. Charlie Angus tried again in English and Trudeau called out his sanctimony before repeating the answer. Nathan Cullen then gave a torqued concern that Raj Grewal’s parliamentary privilege protected him from investigation — which isn’t true — and Trudeau raised Dean Del Mastro as an example of an MP under investigation whose privilege didn’t shield him.

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