Roundup: A middle power and a convenor

We are on day twenty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the shelling and air strikes against civilian targets continue—an apartment building in Kyiv, a theatre where children were sheltering in Mariupol. Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the US Congress yesterday, invoking Pearl Harbour and 9/11 as part of his demand to close the sky” (which isn’t going to happen), and added that if America can’t do that, then to at least give Ukraine the planes so they can do it themselves. That was obviously a demand he couldn’t make of Canada (no, seriously—third-hand CF-18s would not be of much use to them), so we’ll see if that gets him any further aid from the US—hours after his address, Joe Biden signed an order authorising another $800 million worth of lethal aid, including anti-aircraft systems, so that presentation may have done its job.

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Meanwhile, closer to home, Mélanie Joly’s comments that Canada isn’t a military power, but a middle power whose strength is convening to make sure diplomacy happens and convincing other countries to do more is rubbing a bunch of former military leaders the wrong way. We do contribute militarily, oftentimes more so than other allies who meet the stated NATO spending targets (which is one more reason why those targets are not a great measurement of anything), though our ability to do more is being constrained. That’s one reason why I’m getting mighty tired of the number of articles and op-eds over the last few days calling for more spending, while none of them address the current capacity constraints, particularly around recruiting.

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Roundup: Three weeks into the invasion

We’re now in day twenty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—three weeks, when Russia considered it a mere matter of marching. Talks appear to be making some slight progress, and in a curious statement, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated publicly that Ukraine would not be seeking NATO membership (but worth noting that NATO does not accept prospective members who are engaged in an active territorial dispute, which Ukraine has been with Russia, not only with the annexation of Crimea, but with the “breakaway” regions in its east). While Mariupol continues to be shelled, some 20,000 citizens were able to flee, which is progress. Zelenskyy will address the US Congress later today.

And there was Zelenskyy’s address to the Canadian Parliament, where he and Justin Trudeau addressed each other on a first-name basis, Zelenskyy referring to “dear Justin” on several occasions. While he continued his appeals to “close the skies,” he knows it’s not going to happen, but he has to ask—it’s his job to do so. And at the very least, it could spur other actions that have not yet been attempted that won’t consist of essentially declaring war on Russia, which is important. In response to the speech, the Putin regime put Trudeau and some 300 other Canadians, including MPs and Cabinet ministers, on the blacklist from being allowed into Russia, for what that matters. (For what it’s worth, Chrystia Freeland was blacklisted years ago).

Meanwhile, as all of this was happening, Governor General Mary May Simon got to have tea with the Queen at Windsor Castle, as well as meet Charles and Camilla at Clarence House. Unfortunately, it looks like the era of future Governors General spending the weekend with the Queen and family at Balmoral in advance of appointment seems to be at an end, but glad that this meeting was able to take place at long last.

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In the House: Zelenskyy addresses a joint session of Parliament

The House of Commons was possible the fullest it has ever been since moving to the temporary Chamber in the West Block, not only with most of the seats filled, but there was seating down the centre aisle for senators and other dignitaries, and the galleries were almost full for possibly the first time ever. Mind you, not all of the seats were occupied by MPs—as which happens during these kinds of events, empty seats were filled with staffers and spouses (and even then, the NDP still left most of their seats empty).

Prime minister Justin Trudeau led with a welcoming address, speaking of the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada, and the shared values between our countries. Trudeau personally addressed Zelenskyy as a friend, calling him a champion of democracy, to much applause, and Zelenskyy appeared touched. When the applause died down, Trudeau announced new sanctions laid that morning, and moved onto the incalculable human costs facing the Ukrainian people, saying that Putin must stop it now. Trudeau praised Ukrainians for standing up to authoritarianism, said they would stand with them as friends, and then turned over the proceedings to Zelenskyy. 

From the screen, Zelenskyy addressed the assembled parliamentarians and guests, including “dear Justin,” and asked them to imagine cities in this country being bombarded by Russia, and how to explain to their children about this war of aggression. He described the scene of the invasion, columns of military vehicles entering the country, the bombardment of schools and hospitals. He listed off Canadian landmarks and monuments to imagine coming under bombardment like in Ukraine. He compared the siege of Mariupol as a city like Vancouver, and asked Trudeau to imagine reading the daily reports of casualties, including 97 children currently confirmed dead from the attacks. He said that this is their reality, as they wait to the next bombs to fall.

Zelenskyy described more of the attacks on his country, including the fires at nuclear power plants. He noted the friendship with Canada, and made the plea for a no-fly zone (which cannot happen because it will mean a shooting war with a nuclear power). The video broke up a little, before he listed actions that Canada has taken, but noted that it has not ended the war. He called on Canada to do more to protect Ukraine and stop Russia. He said that he was not asking for much, and said that Canada has been leading, and asked for more of this leadership in order to get others onside to get these measures. He made another plea for a no-fly zone, before saying that Russia is attempting to destroy their future, their nation and their character. He asked Canada to expand their efforts, and asked the diaspora in Canada to provide practical support, so that they could show they were more than just part of Ukraine’s history. Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude to Trudeau and Canada, before ending the address with “Glory to Ukraine, thank you Canada,” to great applause.

Once things died down, Speaker Furey of the Senate made his remarks to thank Zelenskyy for his words, and he quoted a Hebrew phrase from the Old Testament meaning “here I stand,” that leaders would utter, much as Zelenskyy stands, and Canada stands with Ukraine. “Ukraine, simply put, is family,” Furey declared.

Speaker Rota gave his remarks, calling Ukraine woven into the fabric of Canadian society, and quoted Zelenskyy from two years ago about the heroes of Ukraine in the arts and culture, calling Zelenskyy one of those heroes.

Next up was Candice Bergen, declaring her caucuses admiration and respect for Ukrainians, and her personal respect for Zelenskyy. She spoke of the heartbreaking images, but also the inspiring scenes they see, noting that they are standing for all of us, as Putin’s attack on Ukraine is an attack on all of us. She noted the diaspora community, before returning to Putin and his war of aggression, his tuning over the international rules-based order, and his use of lies (which is a bit ironic there). She called for him to be brought to justice at The Hague, for air space to be protected over humanitarian corridors, and then promised that any Ukrainians who flee to Canada will be well taken care of before they are able to return home.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and he called for more severe sanctions, so that pressure could come from within Russia to end the war, and wanted the Canadian government to remove barriers to welcoming more Ukrainian refugees, and the need for a “humanitarian bridge” to Ukraine. He noted with reluctance the need for more weapons, but called on more weapons to be delivered so that Ukrainians can fight for their homeland. He called the Russian people the first victims of Putin and praised Zelenskyy for turning the Russian propaganda machine against them. Blanchet empathised with the Ukrainians living through the current war, and praised their dignity and bravery, before declaring that Zelenskyy would win the war. 

Jagmeet Singh rose next, thanking Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people, before repeating what Zelenskyy asked people to imagine, and said that Canadians would stand with Ukraine and would provide as much help as possible. He promised more action on sanctions, and promising to meet the needs of Ukrainians. He recalled a Punjabi phrase from his mother about rising spirits in the face of difficult circumstances, and defiant optimism.

Finally, last to speak was Elizabeth May, who read the words of Ukraine’s Green leader, writing from a bomb shelter, her voice breaking as she did so. She noted that Greens around the world were united in knowing that a no-fly zone would only escalate a war with Russia, but called on Canada and the world to invent new means of helping Ukrainians in order to find a peace. She hoped that he would be able to join them in person, with a free and victorious Ukraine able to find Canada worthy of its friendship.

Rota made closing remarks, to more applause and chants.

Roundup: The gloves are off in the leadership

It is now day twenty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv remains largely intact, while Russian bombardment continues of other cities, particularly Mariupol. Peace talks continue, but there is some speculation that because Russia cannot capture Kyiv that the shelling of other cities is an attempt to force some kinds of concessions from the Ukrainians to end the conflict. There is also news that Russians bombed a military base near the border of Poland, which some are interpreting as an act to warn NATO about providing aid to Ukraine. At the same time, we are hearing that China turned down Russia’s request for military aid as well as financial aid to weather the economic sanctions, though both countries deny this (not that they should be believed), so that is a very interesting development indeed. Elsewhere, the World Bank has approved another $200 million in financial aid for Ukraine to help it weather the invasion.

Later today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the Canadian parliament, and here is a list of previous leaders who have done so. Meanwhile, two Canadian MPs—one Liberal, one Conservative—are in Poland to offer assistance where they can to Ukrainian refugees, and showing that this is a non-partisan effort to help where Canada is able to. Both expect Zelenskyy to demand more from Canada, and they have been hearing about needs in Poland to assist with the influx of refugees.

Conservative leadership

The gloves are off, and Pierre Poilievre and Patrick Brown are at each other’s throats over the 2015 “niqab ban” policy of the former Harper-led government. Brown is trying to paint Poilievre as complicit in it, as he was in Cabinet at the time, while Poilievre is calling Brown a liar (which is rich considering that Poilievre is an avowed lying liar who lies all the gods damned time), and says there was never a niqab ban—erm, except there was, Harper doubled down on it, members of Poilievre’s own campaign team have said there was and apologised for not standing against it. But again, Poilievre is a lying liar who lies what are you going to do? Oh, and Poilievre is also making a bogus promise about coercing provinces to accept foreign credentials for doctors and engineers. Good luck with that, Pierre, because if that’s all it would take, it would have been done by now (particularly when Poilievre was the federal minister of employment and social development). Cripes.

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Roundup: The last-minute scramble to add to Trudeau’s Euro trip

We are now on day nineteen of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it remains in something of a holding pattern. Russian airstrikes are ramping up, and no, NATO will still not implement a no-fly zone because it will mean shooting down Russian targets, blowing up air defences on Russian soil, and dragging us into a shooting war with a nuclear power while at the same time not doing anything about ground-based shelling or missile-strikes. While sanctions continue to ramp up, the IMF is warning of a massive recession in Russia, which could have bigger international ramifications. (Because sanctions need to hurt us if they’re going to hurt Russia. That’s how it goes).

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Meanwhile, the Star got a behind-the-scenes peek at some of the diplomatic scrambling that happened with Trudeau’s trip to Europe last week, which was supposed to be a short trip to meet the new German chancellor, but quickly ballooned into a number of other meetings and events to show solidarity among NATO allies and with Ukraine (and of course, an audience with the Queen).

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Roundup: A strategic turning point?

We are in day seventeen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the bombardment and shelling has intensified not only in Mariupol, but some other cities that have thus far been unaffected. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they have achieved a strategic turning point, that they have lasted four times longer than Russia planned for them to, and asked his people for strength and patience. There are also concerns that Russians are targeting ports and grain silos, which could have a major impact on food supplies in the region as the crisis grows. In the meantime, the BBC has a chilling report out of Kharkiv, and it’s a bit grisly because of the number of Russian corpses just lying there.

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Justin Trudeau concluded his European trip, and announced yet more sanctions against Russian oligarchs including Roman Abramovich, who has interests in a steel company that has operations in Canada, so these sanctions could affect its operations.

Closer to home, Anita Anand addressed the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence yesterday, and spoke about a “robust package” to modernise NORAD, and said that they have not forgotten about the threats posed by China while the world is focused on Ukraine. At the same conference, a senior CSIS official spoke about the vulnerability posed by cyberspace, which is why they are focusing on protecting critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks.

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Roundup: Calls to further isolate Belarus

The continued shelling of Mariupol marked day sixteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the Russians were aggressively pushing disinformation and propaganda about what happened there. It also looks like that long convoy on the way to Kyiv has broken up, and redeployed elsewhere. The US, European Union and G7 are all moving to follow Canada’s lead in revoking Russia’s “most favoured nation” trade status, while Belarus’ exiled opposition leader called for tighter sanction on that country, including having it removed from the SWIFT system as well, as she seeks diplomatic isolation of the Lukashenko regime, as well as Canadian recognition of her “government in exile.”

Justin Trudeau’s final stop on his European tour was in Poland, where he met with Ukrainian refugees who had fled across the border. Trudeau later said that Putin would lose the war, and that he would face consequences for his illegal war and the war crimes that come along with it. It has also been announced that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will likely address Canada’s Parliament on Tuesday, which is during the March Break, meaning that MPs and senators will fly into Ottawa for a day, then fly back out again.

Closer to home, the Chief of Defence Staff says that Russia’s re-occupation of its Cold War bases in its far north are of concern to Canada, and that we shouldn’t be complacent. General Eyre’s big challenge remains recruitment, however, which is not going to be an easy nut to crack, particularly as culture change is still underway within our military ranks. Of course, we should also remember that it’s extremely unlikely to face any kind of northern invasion because it’s simply not feasible. Seriously.

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Roundup: Asking the parochial questions

On day fifteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they bombed a children’s hospital in Mariupol, at a time that it was supposed to be under a ceasefire. And it’s not surprising that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still insisting on “closing the skies,” but that wouldn’t stop the shelling from artillery and missile batteries on the ground, and yes, it would draw the rest of NATO into a shooting war with a nuclear power. So while he’s justified in asking for the assistance, it would not actually improve the situation and would most likely wind up making things a whole lot worse. To make matters worse, a power outage at Chernobyl means that it could start leaking radiation unless power lines are repaired, which requires a cease-fire in the area, so that’s alarming. And all of the chaos is making it hard for aid efforts, including those by Canadian non-profits to reach those in the country who need it.

Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland, Mélanie Joly and Anita Anand were in Berlin yesterday for more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, and Trudeau vowed that Putin would face justice for his war crimes under the International Criminal Court. He also announced another $50 million worth of military aid being sent to Ukraine, and that he had invited Zelenskyy to address Canada’s Parliament, much as he did the UK’s earlier this week. On a related note, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addressed the Ottawa Defence Conference yesterday and said that while Canada is playing a “leading role” in NATO’s response to the invasion, he is still calling for more military spending (which may not do any good given that our military doesn’t currently have the capacity or personnel to spend its current allotment).

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And then, during a media availability with Freeland and Joly, a CBC reporter demanded to know why they were in Europe for “photo ops” rather than doing important work back home. And I can’t even—especially when he went on about the “taxpayer’s dime” when he tweeted about the exchange, trying to make himself sound put out by being smacked down about it. Aside from the “people are saying” framing, which is both ridiculous and telling, I’m not sure what pressing matters they should be attending to back home. The Commons is on March break this week and next. It’s just such parochial bullshit and the kind of cheap outrage/hairshirt parsimony that the CBC loves to engage in, and we wind up with poorer journalism as a result.

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Roundup: A growing humanitarian crisis

We are now on day fourteen of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and some of the big concerns are the growing humanitarian ones—not only the inability to safely get civilians out of cities under bombardment, but the fact that in some of those cities, particularly Mariupol, people are trapped with no electricity, little food, running water, or medical supplies. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the British Parliament via video, and called on them for even tougher sanctions against the “terrorist state” Russia. The US has decided to ban all Russian oil and gas, while corporations like McDonald’s and Starbucks have decided to suspend operations in Russia (though more likely because the ruble is nearly worthless and not something they want to be doing business in).

Justin Trudeau was in Latvia for NATO meetings, where he announced that Canada’s mission there would be extended for several more years. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also made the point of warning Russia against attacking any supply lines supporting Ukraine within NATO territory, citing that it would trigger Article 5. Poland also floated the idea of sending fighter planes to a US/NATO base in Germany to then somehow send to Ukraine, but the Pentagon nixed the idea as unworkable.

All of this talk, of course, leads to yet more questions about military spending in Canada, and that “two percent of GDP” target, which is a very poor metric.

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Roundup: More nuclear concerns with more shelling

We are now into day thirteen of Russia’s (stalled) invasion into Ukraine, and things don’t seem to be advancing much more at the moment. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video showing that he was still in his office working, citing that he was unafraid, while photos circulated of Ukrainian forces taking out the supply convoy for the stalled convoy that has been stuck on the approach to Kyiv for days now. Meanwhile, Russian forces destroyed another nuclear facility—this time an atomic physics lab, which also provided medical isotopes to the country, so that’s a very bad thing.

Justin Trudeau was in London yesterday, where he met with Boris Johnson and Mark Rutte of the Netherlands to discuss more coordinated actions and further sanctions against high-ranking Russian officials, in advance of further meetings later in the week. Trudeau did make mention of possible higher military spending, but as we discussed yesterday, it’s hard to see how that will help if we already can’t spend what we’re allocating currently because of capacity constraints. Trudeau also pledged support for Europeans in getting off of their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, but in spite of what Jason Kenney seems to think, we have no current LNG export capacity nor can we build any anytime soon, so this support will appear to be more geared toward their own green transition rather than to Canadian-sourced product.

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Trudeau also met with the Queen yesterday, and they apparently chatted for some 45 minutes, when a usual audience lasts 20, so that’s a promising sign. It was her first event post-COVID, and it was nice to see her back on her feet again.

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