Roundup: The allegations reach Queen’s Park

Another day, another Global news story about supposed foreign interference allegations, this time naming Ontario PC MPP Vincent Ke as someone who has been working on behalf of the Chinese government, and who was given funds to disperse for election influence. Ke denies this, but Doug Ford swiftly demoted him from parliamentary assistant to committee chair, and then hours later, Ke “voluntarily” stepped out of caucus for the time being. But there are a lot of problems with the reporting in the piece, as both Stephanie Carvin and Jessica Davis—both of whom are former CSIS analysts—point out in separate Twitter threads that are absolutely essential reading to understand why this reporting is so suspect.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1634268769697640449

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1634272246817607682

https://twitter.com/JessMarinDavis/status/1634282290921590798

Meanwhile, former Senator Vern White is calling out the Conservatives’ characterisation of NSICOP to be the bullshit that it is, and says that it would be faster and cheaper for that committee to do the review into interference allegations than a public inquiry. He also doesn’t believe an NSICOP member leaked an unredacted report to Global news considering how strict the security is. I previously wrote a piece about the legislation empowering NSICOP and how it compares to other Westminster parliaments’ own parliamentary national security committees, and they too face redactions from their political executives—NSICOP is not out of line in that regard, not to mention that we don’t have secure places for a secret-cleared parliamentary committee to meet on Parliament Hill (which should be part of the renovations to Centre Block).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1634335994525757440

Ukraine Dispatch:

An aide to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the decision to stick out the battle in Bakhmut has to do with the ability to pin down and degrade Russia’s best forces ahead of the planned spring Ukrainian counter-offensive. Meanwhile, most of the power in Kyiv has been restored after Thursday’s missile barrage from Russia.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1634182540868108290

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1634245229627809792

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QP: How is Dr. Seuss an insult?

The prime minister was off in Whitehouse, which may or may not have anything to do with the balloon shot down over its airspace on the weekend, but his deputy was present for the first time in a couple of weeks, which was a nice change. Melissa Lantsman led off with a script on the mini-lectern in front of her, and she quoted a Statistics Canada survey about people feeling economically stressed. Chrystia Freeland praised her plan which was compassionate but affordable, and listed measures that it included. Lantsman quoted a Léger poll about people feeling the country isn’t working, and demanded the prime minister take responsibility. Freeland suggested that the Conservatives take responsibility for telling people to invest in crypto. Lantsman then read out the talking points about “random Liberals” saying the government spent too much, but Freeland retorted with the gangbusters January jobs numbers. Luc Berthold took over in French, worried about food price inflation and demanded the prime minister take responsibility for it (never mind the actual causes of droughts, floods, and Russia invading Ukraine). Freeland listed the measures they made to help people, which the Conservatives voted against. Berthold insisted they voted against inflationary policies, and this time Pablo Rodriguez who got up to decry that the Conservatives would cut programmes.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, quoted Chantal Hébert in saying some anglophone Liberals in Quebec who wanted Parliament prorogued in order to keep the official languages bill from being passed as amended. Ginette Petitpas Taylor insisted that they wanted the bill passed. Therrien mocked anglophones in Montreal who feel oppressed by Quebec language policies, to which Rodriguez insisted the Bloc needs to get their own MPs in order and accused them of delaying that bill.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, he demanded the minister block the Roger-Shaw merger. François-Philippe Champagne said that he favours competition but he is still reviewing the Federal Court of Appeal decision. Daniel Blaikie took over in English to repeat the demand with some additional sanctimony. Champagne repeated his pledge for more competition in English.

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Roundup: Four balloons and counting

Apparently Chinese balloons are all the rage right now, as Justin Trudeau ordered NORAD defences to shoot down a balloon over Yukon (and recover operations are now ongoing), and now another “object” has been shot down over Lake Huron in coordination with continental defences. Yes, an American F-22 did the job, but it sounds like that was because it was closer launching from Alaska, whereas our CF-18s launched from Cold Lake, which is much further south (though some have said the F-22 can fly higher than a CF-18, but that doesn’t sound like the reason). This makes a total of four likely balloons being shot down in North American airspace in the past several days. From what I’ve been given to understand, much of the NORAD systems have been calibrated for planes and missiles, so many of these balloons may not have been noticed, but now that we’re noticing them, well, we’re really noticing a lot of them, and shooting them down sends a message to China—assuming that these are theirs, because that is still an open question.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1624886714257879040

If nothing else, this has been a teaching moment about NORAD, because some people don’t seem to understand how it operates.

https://twitter.com/andreacharron/status/1624941399119388675

There are plenty of questions as to why balloons, and the fact that they may have gone undetected by NORAD systems may be a clue, but it’s been a whole weekend of this.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 355:

Russian forces spent the weekend shelling the eastern part of the country, and in particular Nikopol and Kharkiv, but it also looks like they are having a hard time getting their planned new offensive off the ground. President Volodymyr Zelenzkyy has praised the country’s efforts in restoring their electrical grid after repeated Russian attacks, but says it’s too early to declare victory just yet. Meanwhile, here is a look at Ukraine’s cultural diplomacy, and their calls for cultural sanctions against Russia, which would include banning their athletes from the Olympic Games.

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QP: Pierre Poilievre, anti-corporate defender

Even though the prime minister was in town, he was away from the Chamber and QP, as were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre was present, and he led off in French worrying about the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s criticism that the “government” decided it’s not worth going after $15 billion in overpayments received by wage subsidy recipients, none of which is true. The CRA Commissioner, who is arm’s-length from the government, said that the $15 billion figure is over-inflated, and that it’s not worth it go after every case—he didn’t say it wasn’t worth it go after any of it. Peter Fragiskatos responded by saying that the Commissioner said verification work for COVID programmes is ongoing. Poilievre turned to English to repeat the question, calling the CRA Commissioner the “prime minister’s chief tax collector,” and repeated the same complete bad faith framing, insisting that it was about letting friendly corporations keep ill-gotten gains. Fragiskatos hit back by saying that Poilievre was talking about cuts and austerity when Canadians needed help during the pandemic, and that the Conservatives previously voted to stop the CRA’s verification work. Poilievre insisted that he told the government not to pay wage subsidies to wealthy corporations, and insisted that 37 corporations who received the subsidy paid shareholder dividends, to which Fragiskatos insisted that the subsidy was about keeping small businesses afloat, and the Conservatives cut the CRA’s budget to do the work of combatting tax avoidance, while the current government restored it and audits are up. Poilievre insisted that the Conservatives were able to collect taxes from corporations more efficiently using fewer CRA employees—seriously?—while the current government lets the CRA complain they don’t have the resources to go after these corporations who took the wage subsidy, and insisting that the government goes after the “little guy” instead of the corporations (which is not what people at the Public Accounts committee are saying). Karina Gould got up and insisted that she talked to small businesses who thanked the government for the help they gave in the pandemic. Poilievre insisted this wasn’t about small businesses, which he supported, but this was about “fraud” and corporations who illegally received these subsidies (which, again, is not really true). Randy Boissonnault took a turn and listed measures that the government undertook, such as the return on investment in the CRA, and that there were regulations in place so that companies who took the subsidy and put that money to profits would have those funds clawed back, as well as implementing their windfall tax on banks and insurance companies.

Alain Therrien led for the NDP, and he railed about the statements that certain Montreal Liberal MPs made about Quebec’s language laws, calling it misinformation and that the prime minister approved of it if he doesn’t announce it. Ginette Petitpas Taylor stood up to give a trite defence of the official languages bill. Therrien thundered about all of the ways in which Trudeau supposedly “divides” Canadians, especially around this bill, and Petitpas Taylor reminded him that she is an Acadian from 

Rachel Blaney rose for the NDP, and complained that the contract to a Loblaws-owned company to support veterans was not working out. Darrel Samson read a statement about getting veterans the help they need. Gord Johns accused the government of not delivering on their promised mental health transfer, and Bennett said that was part of the proposed bilateral agreements with provinces so that they could be ensured of transparency and accountability for those dollars.

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Roundup: A failure to condemn Carlson

The increasing unseriousness of our Parliament continues apace. After Question Period yesterday, NDP MP Matthew Green stood up to move a unanimous consent motion to condemn Fox “News” personality Tucker Carlson for his comments calling for an armed invasion of Canada in order to depose Justin Trudeau, apparently before we “become Cuba.” (Carlson also called for a “Bay of Pigs” invasion, apparently not understanding how badly that went for the Americans). And when the Speaker asked if there was consent to move the motion, a few Conservatives said nay (and no, I couldn’t tell which ones did).

https://twitter.com/markgerretsen/status/1620592776697237505?s=61&t=KIxQXaMgTmXV7qHS5V9-FQ

A couple of points. Number one is that Green shouldn’t have bothered because this just gives Carlson the attention he craves, but we know what this is for—social media clips, so that he could plaster it over Twitter and whatever other socials he’s on that he got Parliament to condemn Carlson, and isn’t he a hero for doing so. It’s performative bullshit, and that’s what our Parliament runs on these days to our detriment. Point number two is that the Conservatives could have shut up and not shown support for foreign regime change, but they did not, meaning they a) agree with Carlson, b) want to appease the Carlson fans in their base, or c) didn’t want to give Green the clip he was fishing for. None of those three are good looks, and just shows the continued decline in the state of debate. Everyone should rethink some of their life choices here.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 343:

The villages of Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka, which are on the southern approach to Bakhmut, came under renewed Russian fire. As well, a new assault against Vuhledar is unlikely to make gains. Meanwhile, a new US aid package to be announced later this week is said to include longer-range rockets, which Ukraine has been asking for.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1620441189710450690

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Roundup: Refusing to aid so-called “illegal refugees”

MPs from the Liberals, NDP and even the Bloc are condemning the actions of Conservative MP Richard Martel as he refused to assist asylum seekers in his riding who face possible deportation to El Salvador, where they are threatened by gang violence. More than that, Martel called them “illegal refugees,” which is not a Thing, but is certainly drawing from American and far-right rhetoric.

What I find most interesting in this, however, are the people who think that Pierre Poilievre should intervene if he wants to show that he’s sincere about his outreach to newcomer communities, and should send the message to “treat all refugees equally.” But this ignores that Poilievre has been following the Jason Kenney “curry-in-a-hurry” method of ethnocultural outreach, which was predicated on using these communities in wedging others, whether it was going to socially conservative communities and saying things like “You hate the gays? Us too! You should vote for us!” Even more to the point, Kenney constantly turned different newcomer communities against one another, creating an artificial division between the “good” economic immigrants who “went through the queue,” versus the asylum seekers whom he termed “queue-jumpers,” never mind that there is no queue for asylum seekers or refugees, but that it is a separate process entirely (and no, refugees are not economic migrants. Refugee resettlement is a humanitarian project, and people need to get that through their heads). Getting one group of immigrants to resent asylum seekers was what Kenney was constantly trying to do.

Mind you, he wasn’t all that successful—his efforts never really netted much of a result when you looked at the election data, but the myth of his so-called success has been cemented in the imaginations of conservatives (and a not-inconsiderable portion of the media), so of course Poilievre is going to take inspiration from it. So I don’t expect he’ll take too much exception to the “illegal refugee” line, because it’s right out of the Jason Kenney playbook.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 301:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the front lines in Bakhmut and met with soldiers there. Zelenskyy is expected to head to Washington today, his first trip since the invasion began, to address Congress as it debates further aid for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine are removing signs of Russian influence form public spaces now that the Russian-speaking lobby in the country has largely evaporated.

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1605101789677867009

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QP: One last kick at the can for 2022

It was the final Question Period of 2022, and not a moment too soon. After we got the traditional recitation of the Xmas Poem as read by Anthony Housefather (some of whose rhymes were a bit more tortured than in years previous), things got underway.

Pierre Poilievre led off in French, raising a statistic about the rising cost of Christmas dinners, and wedged in a lurid tale of people threatening to access MAiD rather than living in grinding poverty (which ignores that that is not a criteria). Justin Trudeau said that he would like to join in and wish people happy holidays, but knows that it can be difficult because of global inflation, which is why they have created support programmes for those who need it, including with dental care and childcare. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his same points, but trying to tie poverty to government waste. Trudeau noted that Canadians step up for each other, and listed his government’s actions again. Poilievre again tried to tie supposed government waste to inflation, and Trudeau deployed his well-worn talking points about the government making the decision to help Canadians when they needed it and it resulted in the economy roaring back faster than our comparator countries. Poilievre demanded to know when the “waste” identified by the Auditor General would be paid back, but Trudeau mentioned this week’s by-election in his paean about his government supporting Canadians. Poilievre could not end the year without deploying a “triple, triple, triple” ear worm in worrying about heating bills, and Trudeau noted that the federal carbon price doesn’t kick in over in Atlantic Canada until the spring, so Poilievre was trafficking in misinformation. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and tried to intimate that the premiers wanted to meet with him “like a family dinner,” and Trudeau noted that he has met with premiers more than any of his predecessors, noted that he was meeting with François Legault in a few days, but he was there to work with provinces to solve the healthcare crisis. Blanchet torture the family dinner even more, and Trudeau noted that the system as it exists isn’t working, which is why he was there to invest more, but it would take more than just throwing money. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and asked a very selective reading of the health-related promises from the election, and wondered where the action was. Trudeau noted that they were working toward rewards and outcomes with provinces. Singh declared that when he as prime minster, he would keep his promises (to much laughter), and demanded to know what happened to the promised $25/hour wage for long-term care workers, and Trudeau repeated that the federal government is there to step up, and that they would work with provinces to raise those wages.

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Roundup: No, LNG sales aren’t being blocked

It seems that Pierre Poilievre, and by extension other members of his caucus like Michael Chong, are trying to sell another false narrative to the Canadian people, and this time, they are claiming that the prime minister is “blocking” LNG sales to Germany. This is patently false, but that’s not surprising considering that this is coming from Poilievre, and he is without any sense of shame when it comes to outright lying at all times. His “proof” is a National Post article with a framing device claiming that Canada “snubbed” Germany on LNG, so they are signing a deal with Qatar.

The federal government has not blocked any LNG projects. We did not “snub” Germany either because they know full well we don’t have the export infrastructure, and by the time we could build it, it would be too late for Europe, hence why they came looking for hydrogen and got it. It wasn’t the government blocking any LNG terminals from being built—it was the market. There is very little supply along the East Coast to try and tap into for supply for export (indeed, there is one import terminal in New Brunswick), so unless you’re piping it all the way from Alberta or the United States, at an increased cost, there has been little sense in constructing it (and no, fracking is not going to happen in New Brunswick). There are terminals being constructed on the West Coast, where there is supply, but they are still being built, because it took a long time for them to secure the export contracts to make construction viable. If Trudeau was really “blocking the sale” then why would these projects still be allowed to proceed? It makes no sense.

There is also the consideration that Canadian LNG is more expensive than that coming from Qatar, which is a large part of why it has been unattractive to the European market (especially when it was coming pretty cheaply from Russia). It’s why most of the proposals aren’t getting off the ground–these projects won’t make their money back for thirty or forty years, by which time we will be deep in decarbonizing and reaching Net Zero targets. Even if we could somehow build an export terminal and a pipeline to supply it, the market for the product is likely to rapidly decrease, which means we’d be stranding those assets and have billions of dollars in these terminals going nowhere. The market doesn’t want to invest for a reason, and it’s not the Canadian government.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 283:

In a rare admission, a top aide to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that between 10,000 to 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia’s invasion began in February. (The Russian losses have been much higher). The International Atomic Energy Agency says a deal aimed at safeguarding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is almost completed. Here is a look at how school children in Kyiv are faring between Russian bombardments and blackouts. Meanwhile, here’s a look at a Canadian-funded work doing de-mining work in Ukraine.

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Roundup: More Macklem misquotes

I’m going to revisit more of Tiff Macklem’s appearance at the Commons finance committee, because things he said were being taken wildly out of context in Question Period yesterday, and we all have an obligation to call out egregious bullshit when we hear it. For example, when Macklem admits that stimulus may have been applied for too long, nobody knew if it was safe to withdraw it yet and they were operating on best guesses and advice from observers, and more to the point, the Bank was also engaged in forward guidance, and they needed  a cycle to wind that back before raising rates, otherwise they risked damaging their reputation as doing what they way they’re going to. This is a very important consideration for a central bank. As well, the questions about the level of spending during the height of the pandemic and whether that led to more inflationary stimulus ignores that it was impossible to better target supports like CERB because the government and its IT structure had no real ability to do that. That’s why the used the CRA’s system to kludge together CERB as quickly as they did—there wasn’t an ability to be more targeted (even though it was temporary). Trying to elicit quotes to blame the government for inflation is both cheap and intellectually dishonest, but that’s pretty much par for the course these days.

Meanwhile, former governor Stephen Poloz told an audience at Western that the economy is much more sensitive to interest rate hikes than it was ten years ago, so we should start seeing inflation start to fall shortly, but he also stated that it will only get part of the job done, so other policy action will be needed to get inflation back to its target zone. This said, Poloz also says that it’s impossible to say if rates were hiked too much over a short period, because as we should know by now, inflation can move about 18 months later than the rate changes happens, so stay tuned.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 275:

As Russian bombing of critical infrastructure continue, people in Kyiv are collecting rainwater to survive, while Kherson is facing renewed attacks. Russia is openly admitting to these attacks now, claiming it’s about disrupting military command and control and stopping the flow of ammunition, never mind that they’re openly admitting to war crimes as they do.

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QP: Directly quoting selectively from the PBO

The prime minister was present once again, while his deputy was busy testifying at the public inquiry. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he worried about deficits causing inflation (which they’re not), and demanded a course correction. Justin Trudeau reminded him that they were there for Canadians during the pandemic in order to ensure it was less severe than other places on the world, and that our economy bounced back faster, and insisted that the Conservatives only want to cut. Poilievre switched to English to denounce alleged comments from Seamus O’Regan, and demanded they cut the carbon price. Trudeau dismissed the concern as twisting the words of minister, and pointed to the PBO report on the carbon price and how it helps eight out of ten families. Poilievre picked up that report and cited several numbers out of context to “prove” his talking points. Trudeau, looking rather pleased, insisted that Poilievre did not look at the section about the rebates, and called him out about not caring about climate change. Poilievre insisted that the rebates were “tiny” and didn’t cover costs—and was called out by the Speaker for using the report as a prop—and Poilievre went on a tear about how the price is ineffective and hurts people. Trudeau disputed that the rebates were tiny, and noted the other benefits they have delivered, noting that Poilievre is only playing rhetorical games. Poilievre tried to bring up the cost of the hotel for the Queen’s funeral and insisted that the report proved that people are being hit hard. Trudeau countered that the report shows that the rebates compensate most families more than they pay, because fighting climate change is important while Poilievre only wants to nickel-and-dime them.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he returned to the alleged contradictions in the reports about the Xi Jinping confrontation and demanded a return to the per-vote subsidy to prevent foreign funding. Trudeau clapped back that the Bloc only want the subsidy because they can’t raise money on their own. Therrien was incensed, and insisted that China was exploiting this vulnerability, and Trudeau countered that political financing is robust and transparent, and pointed out that the media are invited to his fundraising events, and encouraged other parties to do the same.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and decried the crisis in emergency rooms and demanded the federal government show up. Trudeau took exception to the insinuation he doesn’t care about children, and pointed out that they have transferred billions to provinces and are sitting down with provinces. Singh switched to French to repeat the question and got the same response.

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