Tag Archives: Canadian Forces

Roundup: Your Star Wars Day grades are in

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It is now around day seventy-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and they have been concertedly targeting train stations and rail infrastructure, ostensibly in retaliation for all of the weapons being sent to Ukraine, and the hope to cut off those supply lines. It has also been noticed that Russia’s missiles have been changing from smarter, guided weapons to “dumb” bombs, likely because of supply challenges, so that also could be giving clues as to the state of Russia’s forces. Here is a recounting of what happened during the bombing of the theatre in Mariupol. Over in the EU, the European Commission president proposed a policy to phase out all Russian oil within six months—but not Russian gas, which is also an issue for much of Europe.

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1521530176030625792

Closer to home, it was Star Wars Day, and there were mostly terrible entries this year. Some of them were appalling. Granted, none quite as bad as that badly animated Grogu that Erin O’Toole made during his leadership campaign, for which the person who did it needs to have their ass removed, but still. Incidentally, neither Candice Bergen nor Doug Ford participated this year.

(The only reason Horwath merited a one is because this is the episode where the opening crawl begins with “The dead speak!” and well, it’s apropos).

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Roundup: Boxing in the Conservatives on abortion

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It is approximately day seventy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian forces appear to be storming the steel plant in Mariupol, after a handful of civilians were evacuated and made it to Kyiv-controlled areas. As well, UK prime minister Boris Johnson addressed the Ukrainian parliament (and I can’t wait for the usual suspects in this country to start demanding Justin Trudeau to do the same, just because).

Closer to home, that US Supreme Court leak about the potential overturning of their abortion jurisprudence has galvanized politicians in Canada in a number of ways. For the Bloc, they decided to engage in mischief by moving a unanimous consent motion after Question Period about a woman’s right to choose, which was explicitly designed to box the Conservatives into a corner, and they dutifully marched into it—right after Candice Bergen sent out orders to the caucus not to discuss it. Of course, several MPs made their comments on their way into the West Block, while most of the leadership candidates made their feelings known.

This raises questions as to whether this could happen in Canada, and it’s theoretically possible, but not under the current configuration of the Supreme Court of Canada. Of course, the more likely course is for a future government to attempt to criminalise it via the Criminal Code, which they have been attempting to in piecemeal form, either via “sex-selective abortion” legislation, or bills that give rights to foetuses, which undermines the Canadian legal jurisprudence that rights begin at birth. The bigger problem in Canada is uneven access, whether between rural and urban areas within a province, or between provinces, particularly in places like New Brunswick and PEI, and the fact that the federal government has been fairly impotent when it comes to clawbacks of Canada Health Transfers related to not providing this service (which Conservatives don’t insist on federally, but Liberals do, when they are in power). I also think it’s an issue that this “feminist federal government” simply refunded the clawbacks from New Brunswick when the pandemic began so that they couldn’t be cast as the bad guy, instead of being seen to stand up for principles and for access. And lo, we may soon need to be providing access to Americans who come to Canada for the procedure, and that may cause capacity challenges, depending on the province. So we have our challenges, but they’re different ones from the US.

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Roundup: More Canadian vigilance needed

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It is now on or about day sixty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and civilians that the UN has evacuated from Mariupol have made their way to safety, and are relaying their tales of their experiences. There are still hundreds of people trapped under the steel plant, and Russians resumed their shelling, so when more will be evacuated remains an open question. Here is a look at the state of the deaths in Kharkiv, which is currently under attack by Russians. Elsewhere, Ukrainian prosecutors are looking into at least ten cases of collusion with Russian forces in Bucha, where mass atrocities occurred.

We also learned that Canadian trainers who were shifted from Ukraine to Poland have indeed been training Ukrainian forces on the big guns they’ve been getting from other countries, including Canada. This puts our contributions into perspective that shows that we’re doing more than just those four big guns and eight armoured vehicles, not that this should be too much of a surprise.

South of the border, a leaked draft majority ruling of the US Supreme Court indicates that they are set to overturn Roe v. Wade, their primary abortion jurisprudence, and I just can’t. America just took a bunch more steps on the road to Gilead, and it calls for even more caution in Canada. It’s unlikely happen like it is down there, given that this is the culmination of decades of their institutions being eroded and dismantled, but we can’t take for granted that things won’t follow their pattern, because there are too many people in this country who are personally invested in America’s culture wars and are trying to import them here at all costs.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1521312973414977538

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1521317780477419521

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QP: Appealing to the NDP Whip?

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While the prime minister was away, none of the other leaders were present either, though the deputy PM was attending virtually. Luc Berthold led off, and he decried Motion 11 on extending sitting hours, and wondered if the NDP were be whipped on the vote (which…isn’t really a question to the government, as much as they’re trying to be clever about there allegedly being a coalition). Kevin Lamoureux insisted this was simply about more hours for debate, which surely nobody could object to. (Note that there are things that can be objected to, but neither side will be reasonable in the discussion). Berthold then listed off some torqued versions of this government’s ethical lapses, and wondered if someone on the other side would say enough was enough, and Lamoureux dismissed this as mere personal attacks. Berthold demanded that the RCMP re-open the investigation into the Aga Khan vacation—never mind that they already concluded that there was no evidence—and Lamoureux dismissed it again as personal attacks instead of focusing on things that matter. James Bezan took over in English to demand an RCMP investigation, and Lamoureux insisted that this was simply character assassination. Bezan tried to pretend he was a prosecutor who had obtained a witness box confession, and Lamoureux deployed the “three leaders ago” quip.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he praised the police action over the weekend with the “bike rally” and how they didn’t need the Emergencies Act, and he wondered if it was necessary at all months ago. Marco Mendicino also praised the police’s actions, and said that the invoked the Emergencies Act at the time because it was needed. Therrien spun a version of events during the occupation that presumed more federal powers than exist, and Mendicino repeated that they needed the Act that time.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, and he lamented that federal COVID sickness benefits were expiring, and Karina Gould appeared by video to say that they extended EI sickness benefits, which was not the same thing. Daniel Blaikie took over to add some sanctimony to the question, and demanded the benefits be extended, and Gould listed actions they have taken around sick days (for federally-regulated sectors) and EI modernisation.

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Roundup: Preparing for another rally, this time of bikers

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It is now approximately day sixty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russians fired two missiles at Kyiv while UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres was visiting, which is not a good thing. There are also concerns that Russia will attempt sham referendums in the southern and eastern parts of the country that they have captured as an attempt to legitimise their occupations. Elsewhere in Europe, Russia’s decision to cut off Poland and Bulgaria off from natural gas as a form of blackmail was met with condemnation from the rest of Europe, and given that Putin sees a united Europe as a threat, his attempts to divide the community is not working very well.

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1519734914018590726

Closer to home, Ottawa is bracing for a different kind of convoy this weekend, this time led by motorcycles instead of trucks, and they claim to be veterans concerned about freedoms, and much like the previous occupation, while there were a handful of truckers involved, I’m not sure how many legitimate veterans will be in this rally, or that it won’t have the same group of far-right extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists, and grievance tourists tagging along. There don’t seem to be as many links in organisers between this rally and the previous occupation, given that many of them are either in jail or on bail, but that’s not necessarily indicative of the others that tag along. This time, the police seem much more alert to the situation—and to the fact that they are on thin ice with the people of Ottawa (seriously, the whole force needs to be disbanded), and they have set up exclusion zones and barred the rally from stopping at the War Memorial as they had planned, which is just as well because it shouldn’t be used as a symbol for these kinds of events. RCMP and OPP are already in the city in preparation, and the city has announced a bylaw crackdown during the rally.

As for the previous occupation, the added security around Parliament Hill cost $6.3 million in parliamentary security alone, with another $4.5 million being racked up in overtime for Parliamentary Protection Services officers. And then there are the $36.3 million the city is demanding that the federal government foot the bill for (though frankly the city should swallow some of this out of their police budget considering how useless the Ottawa Police were and that they allowed the occupation to take hold). One wonders how much this upcoming rally is going to add to that total.

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Roundup: Questions on the inquiry terms

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It is now on or about day sixty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there were missile strikes throughout the country as Russian forces targeted Ukraine’s rail infrastructure, with a particular eye toward disrupting the ability to move weapons coming in from allied countries in the west toward their positions in the eastern part of the country. (This is the kind of operational security that is at stake when our government won’t give specifics about their weapons shipments). As well, the American officials who just visited Kyiv have said that more weapons are on the way, and that they are hoping to resume activity in their embassies within the country within the next few weeks, and hopefully in Kyiv itself, which would be a major symbolic move (and yes, Canada is making its own considerations for resuming activities, depending on the security situation).

Closer to home, the government waited until the very last moment to launch the public inquiry into the use of the Emergencies Act, as the Act stipulates. Justice Paul Rouleau of the Ontario Court of Appeal will head the inquiry, and has 300 days to table his final report in Parliament. While I have a column that delves further into this, I did want to put a few comments here, from national security experts Jessica Davis and Leah West, about particular observations they have about the terms of reference for this inquiry:

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Roundup: Incoherent housing plans

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We are now on or about day fifty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has declared victory when it comes to their siege of the strategic city of Mariupol, and has ordered its troops not to storm the last pocket of resistance there. But hey, they’ve “liberated” the city by shelling it to rubble, so good job there. It is estimated that some 2000 Ukrainian troops remain on site, spread out in a network of tunnels and bunkers, along with several thousand civilians. Of course, this also means that Russian forces are likely going to simply try and wait out those remaining troops and civilians as they run out of food and supplies, and trap them inside.

Closer to home, Pierre Poilievre has been unveiling more of his housing platform, but…it’s pretty incoherent, in a lot of ways. There isn’t that much financial leverage that the federal government can wield when it comes to ending NIMBYism and seven decades of market incentives for single-family homes that are unsustainable and which only continue to exacerbate the affordability crisis (not to mention the climate crisis). Oh, and Poilievre is defending his own rental property portfolio, citing that he’s providing affordable rental accommodations to two “deserving families.”

The last point on that list is pretty critical—it would undermine central bank independence, and one imagines could actually create a deflationary spiral in the right circumstances that would create a depression, which is precisely what they were avoiding when they engaged in quantitative easing during the pandemic recession. Jennifer Robson has even more concerns about the incoherence of the plan in this thread. Meanwhile, I would also recommend checking out this thread by Mike Moffatt about just how complex the drivers of the housing situation in Ontario is. It’s not just one thing—it’s a lot of moving parts that got us to where we are now.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1517214855572320256

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Roundup: First leadership deadline passes

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We are now on or about day fifty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has been pouring more troops into their offensive in the Donbas region, and they are making a bunch of unverified claims about their strikes on Ukrainian targets (which should be taken with a salt lick’s worth of scepticism). As well, there were more missile strikes on the western city of Lviv, and Russia has given another ultimatum for the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol to leave, but thus far there has been no sign that they will take them up on it.

Closer to home, the first deadline for the Conservative leadership contest has passed, and eight of the declared candidates have crossed the threshold of the $50,000 entry fee and the completed questionnaire. They have ten days to reach the next deadline of $300,000 in fees and 500 signatures, and thus far, only three of the candidates have crossed that threshold so far (and judging from the names of the eight remaining, most won’t make it either). Meanwhile, Pierre Poilivre’s camp claims that they have sold memberships in all 338 federal ridings, in order to claim that they have broad appeal, for what that’s worth.

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Roundup: Chalk up another Conservative disinformation campaign

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We’re now on or about day fifty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has been confirmed that Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, has sunk, which is a huge loss for Russia (particularly as Turkey is blockading the entrance to the Black Sea to military vessels, so there will be no replacement for it anytime soon), and it will no longer be able to support Russian ground forces, or to shell cities from afar. In the meantime, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to show that he is a master communicator for his country and his cause.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1514681561412780035

Closer to home, yet another pernicious bit of disinformation has started circulating, courtesy of the Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation, who read the Emissions Reduction Plan (which was prepared by an arm’s-length advisory panel), found a reference to a proposal to add a surtax to certain kinds of gas-guzzling vehicles, and then wrote an op-ed in the Toronto Sun that declared this was the government’s plan. Jason Kenney picked up on this and decried it, as has the Conservative Party writ-large and several of its leadership contenders. Of course, there are no actual plans for such a tax, but why does the truth matter? This was the tactic they’ve been using on the supposed plans for a capital gains tax on primary residents, which doesn’t exist and never will exist (even if it’s actually decent public policy). This also compounds with the selective quotes they’ve been using from the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s recent report on carbon pricing, which has been torqued into more disinformation.

There’s so much disinformation and lies floating about, as though there weren’t enough actual things that you could absolutely excoriate this government for, and yet they resort to fiction. Utterly boggling.

Programming Note: I will be taking a long weekend off from the blog, because I am exhausted after the past few weeks. See you Tuesday!

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Roundup: Words with meanings and obligations

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We’re now around day fifty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and four European presidents—Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—visited Kyiv to show their support yesterday. (Some photos of Ukraine here). Ukrainian forces also detained one of Putin’s oligarch allies, which has led to a new round of threats from Russia. The other thing that will make Russia angry? The fact that the Ukrainians sank Russia’s flagship for their Black Sea fleet—the same ship that fired upon the border guards at Snake Island. It’s almost poetic justice.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1514397710509559814

Meanwhile, we are getting into a frustrating debate about whether or not to call what’s happening in Ukraine a genocide, and what makes it frustrating is the fact that there are international obligations to do something about it if that’s indeed the case. There is no argument that there are crimes against humanity happening, and those are very, very serious. But “genocide” is a specific legal term with specific intent, and for President Biden to throw the word around and saying that lawyers can sort out the details later isn’t helping, when the term obligates the US to do something about it (which they have danced around in the past because they don’t want to be obligated). And then Justin Trudeau chines in and says it’s “absolutely right” to use the term, which would then obligate Canada to do something about it as well. But we need to stop using the most serious language for things for shock value, because words have meanings, and in this case, obligations as well.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1513890485970116614

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1513902439556169733

Closer to home, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rates by fifty basis points, and has hinted that more rate hikes are on the way, as they have to not only combat inflation with the only tool they have, but they have to fight the perception that they aren’t doing enough to cool inflation (and that latter part is the bigger part of the problem). I’ll be writing more about what’s in the Monetary Policy Report in the coming days, but in the meantime, here are some smart economists giving some reaction.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1514249461857366021

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