Roundup: Poilievre tries out new tough-on-crime disinformation

As evidenced in Question Period yesterday, the Conservatives have found a new lie to suit their narrative around the transfer of Paul Bernardo, and it’s citing the former Bill C-83, which allegedly eliminated solitary confinement in Canadian prisons on favour of “structured intervention units.” We can pretty much be assured that the legislation did not do what it said it would, and “structured intervention” is largely still solitary confinement, and the actual problems haven’t been solved, but the underlying notion here was that this bill was in response to the finding of the courts and international human rights bodies that solitary confinement is a violation of human rights. Nevertheless, this is being blamed for the conditions that allowed for Bernardo’s transfer, which again, is not true. It’s not the first time they’ve done this tactic—they also did it with the former Bill C-75 on bail reform, which was about codifying Supreme Court of Canada jurisprudence around bail, and actually created several more categories where a reverse onus was needed, which made bail tougher to get. That didn’t stop the lies then, and it isn’t around C-83 now.

In the meantime, here is the Alberta Prison Justice Society with some important context around prison transfers and security classifications, which a lot of people should know (and in some cases, do know but are lying about it in order to drum up outrage, because politics is all about rage-farming and shitposting these days).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians struck the settlement of Novoberyslav in the Kherson region, killing a married couple when their house was bombed. The Ukrainian advance continues in the south, while Russians are trying to trying to dislodge Ukrainian positions in the east. Meanwhile, a group of African leaders are visiting Kyiv to discuss Ukraine’s “peace formula” to end the war.

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Roundup: You’re not going to get a royal recommendation

Another day, and another warning from the Speaker that a private member’s bill is going to need a royal recommendation before the final vote, and it won’t get it, so be prepared to waste everyone’s time on a doomed bill that won’t go anywhere. This is becoming increasingly routine in this parliament, where MPs keep advancing these bills that have no hope of passage up for debate, apparently because they want to be seen talking about the issue, and maybe shaming the government for not supporting it, as with this particular bill on enhancing OAS and GIS benefits for seniors between 65 and 74 (ignoring that they are enriched for seniors over 75 because many of them have exhausted their savings by that point).

But seriously—a private member’s bill cannot spend money. Only a government bill can do so, because they’re the government, and they need that expenditure approved by Parliament. This is fundamental to how parliamentary democracy works. These clear delineations in roles exists for a reason, and the role of MPs who are not in Cabinet is to hold Cabinet to account, and the primary way to do that is through the power of the public purse. You cannot hold them to account if you too are spending public money with abandon because you have at that point blurred the responsibilities and the lines of accountability. This shouldn’t be difficult for MPs to learn and grasp, but unfortunately, they have picked up a lot of bad habits and wrong-headed beliefs over the past number of years, and it’s becoming quite obvious that they either refuse to learn how the Chamber and the institution work, or they simply don’t care and would rather waste everyone’s time.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The Ukrainian commander in the ruins of Bakhmut says that Russian Wagner Group mercenaries have stepped up their attacks in recent days, while Russia is denying claims that Ukrainian forces have made advancements in Bakhmut over the past couple of days. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the spring counter-offensive is being delayed because they need more western weapons. This while the UK has opted to send newer cruise missiles to Ukraine, who have the longest range of any of their arsenal to date. Zelenskyy also says he has approved a plan to reform criminal and law enforcement systems, which is a requirement for future EU membership.

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1656535955338063873

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Roundup: David Johnston, special rapporteur

The “unimpeachable” eminent Canadian chosen to be the special rapporteur on allegations of foreign interference is former Governor General David Johnston, and it took mere minutes for the Conservatives to start denouncing him, citing that he was affiliated with the Trudeau Foundation, and that his role on the election debate commission saw Rosemary Barton ask questions during the last debate when she “sued” the Conservatives (note: she did not sue them, but the CBC sued the party in her name for unauthorised use of footage; also, I don’t believe Johnston chose the moderators or questioners, considering that it was a demand of the broadcast consortium that their talent each be allowed to have time during the debate), and on and on it went. The pundit class largely insisted that Johnston should have recused himself right away because he is too closely associated with Trudeau, and others insisted that if it was truly a non-partisan appointment then Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh should have been part of the process and naming him, and anyway, the whole special rapporteur thing was stupid and so on.

https://twitter.com/SusanDelacourt/status/1636102797623009281

I mean, I understand why Trudeau decided to go this route—not everyone agrees that a public inquiry is the best route to go, because it could go for years and that could mean delaying action that should be taken now. Even if it is the route we want to go (and several Liberals are now saying that it’s the only option at this point), it would still be Trudeau and Cabinet setting the terms of reference, which is also part of the rationale—Trudeau says that he would leave that determination up to Johnston, and he’d follow his recommendations, thereby trying to put some measure of distance between himself and any such task. I do say that it mystifies me that everyone demanding an inquiry right now if not yesterday never seems to care about this very point, even though we all damned well know that they would immediately cite these points as to why the inquiry is illegitimate.

But honestly? Canada is a small pond. There are not too many “eminent Canadians” who have the track record to take on this kind of task, and who don’t have some kind of perceived conflict, no matter how unrealistic it is. But that’s the whole thing with perceived conflicts, and this notion of “smell tests” that don’t actually mean anything but which get the chattering classes frothing. Is Johnston the best choice? Maybe, maybe not. The likely other option was a former Supreme Court Justice, which has become a running joke in Canadian politics these days. Regardless, the fact that this is just more partisan fodder is all the more proof that parties are not actually taking this seriously, and would rather be out to score points instead.

Ukraine Dispatch:

American intelligence suggests that the Russians are making small advances toward Bakhmut, but at great cost. Further north near Kreminna, similar battles are playing out, with the Russians making unsuccessful attacks, but they worry that the attempts to surround Bakhmut could have repercussions for their section of the front, while fatigue is starting to set in.

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QP: Conflating the “police stations” with the interference allegations

While the prime minister was present for a second day in a row, it was a question as to whether the tone of yesterday would carry forward today. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, wondering about the two alleged Chinese “police-stations” in Quebec, raised the Chinese donation to the Trudeau Foundation ten years ago (at a point where Justin Trudeau was not involved in the Foundation), and demanded the date for when a foreign agent registry would be in place. Trudeau took up a script and said that the RCMP was looking into those alleged “police stations,” and that they would take every measure to protect Canadians from foreign intimidation. Poilievre again demanded a date for the registry. Trudeau said he woudln’t take any lessons from a former democratic reform minister whose only shining achievement was making it harder for Canadians to vote, before he started patting himself on the back for the measures they have taken thus far. Poilievre raised the allegations that Chinese agents had “earmarked” a large transfer of funds to be used in the election, and demanded to know if Trudeau would return any funds he or the party in any capacity received from the PRC. Trudeau read that it was a fact that there are threats and that even the US is facing these threats, and that any suggestion that any MP is not loyal is dangerous and undermines democracy. Poilievre reiterated that the question was whether they will commit to return any money that came from the PRC. Trudeau insisted that this was not a partisan issue, and read the points of what the special rapporteur would do. Poilievre said that since Trudeau won’t commit to returning money and accused the prime minster of delaying, possibly until the next election. Trudeau shot back that when Poilievre was minster for democratic reform, he did nothing about foreign interference and only made it harder for marginalised Canadians to vote, while his government took action.

Yves-François Blanchet raised the so-called Chinese “police stations,” and accused the government of doing nothing about foreign interference and that the disqualified themselves from being able to do anything. Trudeau said that there are separate issues, and that the RCMP were investigating those alleged stations. Blanchet said he needed reassurance that the rapporteur would be independent, and Trudeau praised the fact that NSICOP contains parliamentarians from all parties.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP and talked tough about their “forcing” grocery CEOs, before railing about the grocery code of conduct being negotiated. Trudeau read a script about the minster of innovation getting the Competition Bureau involved in the matter, and that they had other measures. Matthew Green took over in English with even more bluster, and Trudeau repeated his same script in English.

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Roundup: An easy way to close a loophole

While Ontario continues to go full-steam ahead toward trying to divert more surgeries to private for-profit clinics (that bill the system), we need a reminder yet again that solutions exist within the existing system, using existing staff and personnel, if only they had the funding and support to do more. Dr. Warner here has a great example of how more can be done with existing facilities and staff that could have the same outcomes or better than these private clinics are purporting to offer.

Of course, that’s inconvenient for Ford, so I doubt he’s going to take this into account going forward. I also saw another news story yesterday about another clinic that is offering access to a nurse practitioner if you pay a monthly subscription fee, because there is a loophole that it exploits. Provincial governments could close this loophole immediately by declaring that visits to a nurse practitioner are billed to the system in the same way that visits to a doctor are—and provide said billing code—which would once again make it illegal to use this kind of loophole. We’ll see if they are committed to doing so with any haste, or if they’re content to accept more of this creeping privatisation because it serves their interests to do so.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces trying to capture Bakhmut are trying to encircle Ukrainian defenders, hoping to cut off their supply lines in the process. Ukrainians say they repelled over sixty attacks by Russians in the past week.

https://twitter.com/lyla_lilas/status/1629906366163742720

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Roundup: Barton deflates his critics

I’m sure that in the minds of MPs, yesterday’s meeting of the Government Operations committee was going to be the high point of the calendar. Dominic Barton was coming to testify, and boy, were they going to blow open the case about how McKinsey got so many contracts with the federal government, or about what Barton knew about the Perdue Pharma scandal, and if they were really good, they could draw some kind of line between Perdue, Barton, Justin Trudeau, and the opioid crisis, and then dine out for weeks on the clips.

It really didn’t turn out that way. I mean, sure, opposition MPs were showboating for all they were worth, whether it was Stephanie Kusie being obnoxious, Garnett Genuis trying to pick fights, or Gord Johns’ unctuous sanctimony. Yves-François Blanchet personally turned up to try and get answers about what McKinsey allegedly told the government about immigration levels. But all of it was pretty much for naught.

Barton largely shut down most of their lines of attack. No, he’s not a close personal friend of the prime minister—they don’t go to dinner, he doesn’t have his personal phone number, they don’t hang out. There was no personal relationship so it didn’t win McKinsey any government contracts, and he wasn’t involved in any of those contracts regardless because he had been in Asia since 1996. He also denied knowing what McKinsey was doing with Perdue Pharma, because it wasn’t his area of responsibility, and he asked several times if they understood how a company like McKinsey operates. Really, he was asked to serve his country, and he did because he wanted to give back, is how he tells it. He also made the point that the civil service’s human resources systems are week, and need to be revamped with better training for civil servants if they want to cut down on the reliance on outside consultants, and he’s absolutely right about that (and yes, I have talked to people who study these things about that).

In all, it was just another example of how our Commons committees are largely dysfunctional and are nothing but theatre that we were unfortunate enough to be subjected to for two solid hours of bullshit. Because our Parliament is such a serious institution these days.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 344:

Russian forces shelled Bakhmut and ten towns and villages surrounding it, as they continue their advance on the strategically important city. (There are a couple of accounts of life in Bakhmut currently, here and here). As well, they destroyed an apartment building in Kramatorsk, because you know, they’re totally not targeting civilians. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s crackdown on graft continues, with a raid carried out at the Tax Office and the home of a former interior minister.

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Roundup: Reducing chances of a wage-price spiral

There have been a lot of misleading things said about the Bank of Canada’s concerns around a potential wage-price spiral, most of them from left-wing economists or union leaders (as well as Jagmeet Singh and Pierre Poilievre), who have wrongly said that either governor Tiff Macklem was blaming wages for inflation (false), or that he told business leaders not to raise wages (also false). What Macklem said was that when negotiating contracts, to remember that they were determined to get inflation back to two percent as quickly as possible, so don’t keep high raises out for too long, because that is what could drive a wage-price spiral. What that means is that because wages would be above the rate of inflation, it means that prices—particularly for services—would need to be raised to pay for those wages, which then keeps inflation higher for longer. It’s also why it’s not just price controls that have happened in the past, but wage and price controls, to try and keep that impetus in check.

Payroll data has been released, which demonstrates why the concerns about a wage-price spiral are abating. Kevin Milligan explains:

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618678055396081665

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618679010099359744

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618680872106086402

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1618691478653644800

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 338:

Russians fired more missiles at Kyiv and places like Zaporizhzhia, killing eleven civilians in the process.

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1618859295851921409

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Roundup: A note of optimism from the Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise rates another quarter point yesterday was not a huge surprise, given that inflation is still running hot, and the labour market remains unsustainably tight, but what was of particular note was that the Bank was much more clear in saying that they are more likely to hold the rate at where it is if things continue in the current trajectory—though they did also provide the caveat that if things continue to run too hot they won’t hesitate to hike rates yet again. (Here is Kevin Carmichael’s great explanation of the decision).

It is also noteworthy that the Monetary Policy Report, which explains the economic landscape and gives some insight into the Bank’s thinking, was really quite optimistic in terms of the possibility of avoiding a recession, but seeing stalled growth in the middle of the year, with a return to slower growth by the end of the year—certainly more of a soft-landing scenario. It’s not guaranteed, mind you, given global economic forces and the mood of the public, but the report was not all doom and gloom, in spite of media narratives.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 337:

Weeks after both Wagner Group mercenaries and Russia forces claim they have taken the town of Soledar, Ukraine only now has started to withdraw its forces from the area, given the heavy toll it is taking as Russians and mercenaries essentially keep feeding lives into the grinder. This puts Russian forces once step closer to the strategically important town of Bakhmut. Meanwhile, Germany has indeed agreed to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, as they were expected to.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1618294048187617283

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Roundup: Fire which gatekeepers?

It sounds like Pierre Poilievre is back on his bullshit again (do the kids still say that?) with his “gatekeeper” nonsense, as in releasing another one of his cringey videos where he promises to “fire the gatekeepers” in order to build housing. Except I’m not sure exactly which gatekeepers he’s proposing to fire, because the biggest impediments to building housing are NIMBY homeowners and neighbourhood associations that oppose any kind of densification, not to mention the elected city councillors who enable said NIMBYism. How, pray tell, does Poilievre propose to “fire them”? I’m sure he’ll tell you that he’ll threaten to withhold federal transfers to municipalities that don’t comply, but then you’ve got elected councillors beholden to voters in conflict with the dictates of a federal leader, so that’s going to be fun.

Poilievre also held a press event in Vancouver yesterday where he unveiled plans to consult on a proposal that would allow First Nations to keep more federal tax revenue from projects on their lands—which sounds like a great policy! But it’s vague, has no details, and is almost certainly going to be a hell of a lot more complicated than he’s making it out to be, especially if he’s going to insist that provincial royalties and taxes won’t be affected either. Listening to the language he used, it also sounds like he hopes that this will be the kind of thing that will ensure projects get built, as though the money from this tax revenue will make concerns over environmental or social impacts evaporate, and I suspect he’ll be surprised when they don’t.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 336:

While Russian forces increase pressure around Bakhmut and Vuhledar, it is expected that Germany will announce today that it will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and allow other countries to transfer them as well. Meanwhile, more officials have been named and fired in relation to corruption allegations, as Zelenskyy’s government continues their pledge to clean up the graft in government so that they can attain EU membership.

https://twitter.com/cfoperations/status/1617887130625413123

https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1618043593285062656

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Roundup: Warning signs of grassroots demise in Ontario

The Star profiles the four potential leadership candidates for the Ontario Liberal party, two of whom are sitting MPPs, the other two being sitting MPs, and I had a couple of observations. One is that the whole piece is framed in the absolutely toxic discourse of looking for a messiah to resurrect a party’s fortunes, which is one of the big problems in Canadian politics in the current era, and a big part of that is because we have devolved leadership contests into pseudo-presidential primaries, the result of which has been to hollow out parties and turn them into empty shells to be inhabited by leaders like hermit crabs. Those leaders turn that hollow shell of a party into a personality cult, until their time is done, and then the next leader does the same again. It’s also worth noting that the Ontario Liberals are currently one of the few remaining parties in the country that still used delegated conventions for the leadership—yes, a problem, but not as bad of one as one-member-one-vote systems. Of course, the article also derides delegated conventions as favouring “party elites,” which is a load of bullshit. Delegated conventions are better at engaging grassroots than OMOV because the riding associations need to get together to elect the delegates, who are then trusted to carry their wishes forward on subsequent ballots.

The other observation I see is that it largely glosses over the fact that the grassroots party in the province has crumbled, and many of its riding associations exist only on paper. This is absolutely shocking, because this is an admission that the party has completely failed in keep up the absolute basics of how our democratic system is structured. This is what leader-centric parties have led to, where the grassroots are seen only as votes for a leadership contest, donors, and a pool of volunteers at election time rather than the people who make up the party, who do the policy work, who run the nominations, and who do the work of accountability at the local level. The grassroots riding associations are supposed to be the interface between the riding and the caucus, especially in ridings that the party doesn’t hold currently. The fact that the party leadership (and I’m guessing Steven Del Duca most especially was part of the problem here) allowed things to atrophy this badly is a really worrying sign about the health of democracy in this province, but also this country generally because these trends are across parties and provinces, because we have failed to learn our lessons when it comes to the basics of civics. This is the kinds of things that people should have learned about in school (and why I wrote my book).

I will add that I would really prefer if the two MPs didn’t jump into this race, and that they stayed in Ottawa and did the work here rather than try to be saviours for the provincial party, especially because voices like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith are so necessary in Ottawa and being a “rogue” in the caucus, which I fear would be swamped and workshopped to death if he were to try to apply that to leadership. But maybe I’m just being cynical here.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 334:

Russian forces have increased shelling outside of their held territories in the East, particularly around Zaporizhzhia. The head of the Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk region says that he visited Soledar, which the Russians claim they captured but Ukraine still denies. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with families of the victims from the helicopter crash earlier in the week. Zelenskyy is also promising further action to root out corruption, with key decisions coming this week, given that this continues to be one of the sticking points for Ukraine in joining with the European Union and other alliances. Elsewhere, here’s a look at how organisations are working to counter Russian disinformation about the war.

https://twitter.com/melnykandrij/status/1616832357826265091

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