Roundup: Conflating failed with fraudulent

The Conservatives went ahead with their Supply Day motion of scapegoating asylum claimants for the strain on the healthcare system, and so many of their claims are based on falsehoods. The claim that a failed claimant is “bogus” of “fraudulent” is not true, and plenty of claimants rejected by the IRB win their appeal in Federal Court. The numbers of actually fraudulent claims are very small, and even rejected claimants may be rejected on technical grounds. Trying to conflate everyone as “bogus” or “fraudulent” is more of the MAGA mindset that they’re trying to tap into, because this is who the party has become. It’s too bad the government is too invested in their own attempts to scapegoat newcomers for problems that the premiers mostly created and refuse to fix, because they should be absolutely savaging the Conservatives on this, and they can’t—and won’t.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-24T22:22:02.270Z

Ukraine Anniversary

Yesterday was the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to be a “three-day war.” There were a number of speeches and a moment of silence in the House of Commons to mark the occasion, so it didn’t go unnoticed. Prime minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will extend Operation Unifier to keep training Ukrainian troops for another three years, as well as donating another 400 armoured vehicles, and extending more sanctions. (Not announced were any resources or a competent federal policing agency to enforce those sanctions).

Four years have passed since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia was supposed to win in three days. Instead, Ukraine reinvented modern warfare, built a drone industry, and can destroy a thousand Russian soldiers in a day. Ukraine can win.

Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T09:58:52.954Z

Prime minister Carney's statement on the 4th anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T15:30:17.057Z

Conservative statement on the 4th anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T15:26:12.386Z

NDP statement on the 4th anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-24T15:26:12.387Z

https://twitter.com/SenGagne/status/2026324346189283440

Ukraine Dispatch

European leaders were in Kyiv to show support on the anniversary of the start of the war. Here is a look at how the attacks on energy infrastructure is dragging down Ukraine’s economy, and here is a look at how drone warfare has changed the nature of the conflict over the past four years.

https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/2026404778884932075

Continue reading

Roundup: Not bothering to amend an abusive bill

It looks like the Senate’s national security committee has decided not to amend Bill C-12 (which is a border bill that was split out of Bill C-2), and in particular left in the sections that give the immigration minister new arbitrary powers when it comes to asylum claims and immigration files that she will soon be able to cancel any application she likes. The Senate’s social affairs committee had recommended removing this section from the bill because these powers can be exercised with no procedural safeguards, but apparently, they don’t care.

Among other complains in this legislation are the timelines for when people can make a refugee claim since they’ve been in the country, which can be fraught for some claimants who have been traumatized or who are afraid that disclosing certain reasons why they are claiming (particularly in instances of domestic violence or persecution for being LGBTQ+) could mean more time, but attempts to change that timeline were shot down. The changes also have the likelihood of creating a two-tier system that won’t guarantee in-person hearings for vulnerable claimants, but apparently that doesn’t matter. And when it comes to cancelling immigration applications or even permanent residency cards because of “public interest,” which the minister can simply declare arbitrarily, well, they decided not to narrow those powers either.

There is some spectacularly bad and frankly abusive legislation that this government is pushing forward, and the Senate should be doing its job and pushing back, especially in cases like this, where the government is trying to give itself arbitrary powers with no guardrails. This is a bad thing, but apparently, we have a bunch of timid senators who don’t want to rock the boat too much. Wasn’t that why everyone was so busy patting themselves on the back for the “independent” Senate, where they weren’t being whipped (not that the whip has been anything but illusory in the Senate), so that they could actually push back against the government? If this is “independence” or “pushing back” against bad legislation, well, I’d hate to see what a pliant Senate looks like.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-23T14:08:03.542Z

Ukraine Dispatch

There was an explosion in Mykolaiv, similar to the bombing in Lviv. Ukrainian forces have reclaimed eight settlements in a counter-offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Here is a compilation of stats on the toll that four years of war has had on Ukraine, while here is a look at how costly this has been in Russian lives. AP has a photo essay featuring several people affected by the war, and a gallery of some of the images over the past four years.

Continue reading

Roundup: Our useless minister of digital asbestos

In the wake of the Tumbler Ridge shooting, we have learned that OpenAI had suspended the shooter’s account but decided not to alert the RCMP about the fact that they had breached the guidelines meant to prevent violence, and didn’t reach out until days after the shooting occurred.

Enter Evan Solomon, our minister of digital asbestos, who released a statement late afternoon Saturday, that demonstrated his utter uselessness.

Evan Solomon’s useless statement on OpenAI not alerting police about the Tumbler Ridge shooter. What an absolute waste of space at the Cabinet table.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-21T21:51:49.274Z

“All options are on the table”? Bullshit. Solomon has stated time and again that he decided to move away from a safety-first regulatory approach to digital asbestos, to a “light touch” because the tech bros convinced him and Mark Carney that any regulation is going to “stifle innovation,” and they certainly wouldn’t want to do that. Meanwhile, the number of people spiralling into psychosis using these chatbots are increasing dramatically, we had indications that a mass shooter triggered the protocols on this particular chatbot but the company didn’t do anything about it, and we really believe that Solomon is going to what? Block them from operating in Canada? Fine them a paltry sum? What? The truth is he won’t, and we know why. He’s guzzled the hype, as has his boss, and neither of them can be told anything different, even in the face of fact after fact showing that the creators of this technology are the dumbest manbabies alive, that the technology is corrosive to the environment and to the cognitive abilities of the next generation, but hey, we wouldn’t want to “stifle innovation.” Come on. Do your job and ensure that Canadians are actually being protected from this rather than just being complicit.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia inflicted a missile and drone attack on a Kyiv suburb over the weekend, as well as on energy infrastructure around Odesa. As well, several bombs exploded in Lviv on Sunday, which are also being blamed on Russia. The Star follows one family who has been shattered by the war over the past four years.

Continue reading

Roundup: A sit-down meeting to foster cooperation?

Yesterday, prime minister Mark Carney had a sit-down meeting with Pierre Poilievre about, well, we’re not entirely sure. Both of their readouts are very different spins on their conversation, but I guess it was about looking at ways to cooperate over the next few months? But let’s take this with a shaker’s full of salt.

Carney is certainly looking to get bills passed through the current minority parliament in a way that won’t be drama with every vote, particularly as he is now down two MPs (soon to be three), while Poilievre has no actual interest in going to an election anytime soon because a) he can read the polls just as much as anyone else and Carney’s favourables are particularly high right now, and b) he wants the NDP to be able to actually fight an election so that they can peel voters away from the Liberals, as the Conservatives need a relatively strong NDP to make that happen, and they are in no position right now. So he needs to save some face while playing along with Carney, so that translates to this faux conciliatory tone, while his “specific suggestions” are always to destroy all environmental laws, and to inevitably drive investment away through uncertainty and increased litigation—such a winning strategy! In any case, I suspect that they will have agreed to pass certain bills, possibly with amendments, by a certain date, before Poilievre gets to carry on with his little song and dance about imaginary taxes and “red tape,” because he has demonstrated time and again that “cooperation” means “do what I say.”

Meanwhile, Jamil Jivani headed to Washington, and apparently got a briefing from Dominic LeBlanc before he left. That said, Carney was throwing some shade around about how Jivani is not the party’s trade critic, and that he was mostly doing it for media attention. Mélanie Joly also noted that he has never said anything about the job losses at the GM plant in his riding, so she was not exactly convinced by his desire to help. In any case, Jivani had his meetings, and tweeted that he had a message from Trump, which was that he “loves” Canadians. Gee, thanks.

Ukraine Dispatch

At least seven people were killed when Russia shelled a front-line town in Donetsk. There are evacuations taking place in Zaporizhzhia region as Russians advance on more settlements. More power cuts are expected as they expect more attacks on Kyiv. Zelenskyy says that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far, which is a lot less than the Russian casualties, which total over a million deaths and injuries.

Continue reading

Roundup: Conspicuous silence from Poilievre

In the wake of prime minister Mark Carney’s big Davos speech, it has been noticed that there is a conspicuous silence coming from Pierre Poilievre, aside from the fact that he was tweeting misleading things about grocery prices, because his strategy is to keep hammering away at cost-of-living issues while the world is on fire. Apparently, his office was circulating a statement before the speech about how a trip to Davos was an “unneeded indulgence” that wasn’t going to resolve any tariffs, because of course, he doesn’t travel. That hasn’t stopped his various proxies from floating their own attack lines, either insisting that it’s nothing but an empty speech (not entirely untrue), or being utterly dismissive and saying that he needs to be back at the table with the Americans to resolve the tariff issues, as though there is a deal to be had with Trump and his mercurial whims where agreements aren’t worth the paper they’re written on. It’s clear there isn’t, and that is becoming an ever-more irrelevant attack line with each passing day.

Meanwhile, here is a look at some of the global reaction to the speech, but one of the comments that stands out is from Michael Kovrig, who has a warning about how some of Carney’s language is being used, particularly in the way he invokes Havel, and how it sets up a false equivalency between the American-dominated rules-based order with totalitarian communism, and why that could have repercussions.

In pundit reaction, Kevin Carmichael is impressed with Carney’s Davos speech, and finds the biggest lesson in it to be the reminder from Havel that we are not powerless. Seva Gunitsky parses the references to Thucydides and Havel in the speech, and how they apply to the American empire. Althia Raj weighs some of the positives and negatives of Carney’s Davos speech. Philippe Lagassé has questions about the government’s defence and intelligence priorities in the wake of Carney’s speech, because they are greatly affected. And Paul Wells strips the speech of its applause lines and contemplates the core of it, and what some of the inevitable critiques will be.

Ukraine Dispatch

Nearly 60 percent of Kyiv remains without power after attacks on its energy grid, making it their hardest winter yet. An executive of the state grid operator died while supervising repairs at a power facility, but they won’t say how. Ukraine’s new defence minister is planning a sweeping, data-drive overhaul of the military.

Continue reading

Roundup: Eight non-binding agreements signed

Yesterday was prime minister Mark Carney’s big day in Beijing, where he met with premier Li Qiang, as well as the chairman of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, Zhao Leji. Carney billed this as building a “strategic partnership” with China, and that he hoped this to be an “example to the world of co-operation amidst a time globally of division and disorder.”  There were high-level meetings away from journalists, and in the end, they had a big show about signing six non-binding agreements as well as two declarations to facilitate more trade, because hey, all of those ministers on the trip needed their photo-op moments. One of those agreements included the BC government and had to do with use of Canadian timber and increasing use of wood-frame construction in China, in order to expand the market beyond just pulp for paper. Another was an MOU on oil and gas—but doesn’t actually commit them to buying any more of our product.

This being said, there has been no progress on the tariff issues, though any announcement might be after the meeting with Xi Jinping today. Carney said that he is “heartened” by Xi’s leadership, which…is a bit problematic considering how much more Xi has cracked down on the country and has consolidated his own power within the Party. (Photo gallery here).

Of course, during the big meeting, Carney said that this “partnership” sets them up for the “new world order,” and hoo boy did every extremely online conservative and conspiracy theorist pick up on that one. Clearly, he meant that the shift away from American dominance was reshaping the global economy, but boy the choice of phrase “New World Order” was catnip to the absolute worst people online, and is once again an own-goal by Carney.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks have destroyed a major energy facility in Kharkiv, as the country faces blackouts in the middle of winter. President Zelenskyy insists that Ukraine is interested in peace after Trump and Putin have lied that Ukraine is the holdout. Emmanuel Macron says that France is now providing two thirds of Ukraine’s intelligence, taking over from the Americans.

Continue reading

Roundup: The Coastal First Nations aren’t budging

Prime minister Mark Carney was in Prince Rupert, BC, to meet with the coastal First Nations, and by all accounts, it was a welcome and cordial meeting, and most of what they discussed were ongoing projects and conservation commitments in the region, along with the promises of renewed funding for ongoing projects in the area. This being said, nothing has changed on the part of these First Nations when it comes to their opposition to a pipeline in their territories or on lifting the tanker ban. The prime minister’s readout from the meeting talked glowingly about the commitments, but what was absent was any kind of commitment in writing to respecting their right to consent to projects in their territories.

Readout of Carney's meeting with Coastal First Nations.I don't see any commitment to respect their wishes if they don't grant consent to a pipeline through their territory.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-01-13T21:02:12.244Z

While this was happening, Pierre Poilievre decided to concern troll that there hadn’t been any meeting sooner, which wasn’t going to get things built faster. Of course, this concern is false because Poilievre has already declared that any consultation he will do will be perfunctory, and that he will ram through projects without any kind of consent (and a former Alberta minister was on Power & Politics to again insist that the obligation is consultation not consent, but that is dated with the adoption of UNDRIP which stipulates free, prior and informed consent).

Quite the concern troll given that Poilievre has flat-out said he'll build pipelines regardless of First Nations' objections.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-01-13T15:20:49.737Z

Meanwhile, when it comes to the Pathways project that Carney insists needs to move ahead if a pipeline is to move ahead (while the MOU also states that a pipeline needs to happen for Pathways to happen), this is your reminder that it’s a scam that will only happen if the government pays for it (and it’ll only remove about 12 percent of production emissions, to say nothing about downstream emissions).

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-01-13T15:08:05.432Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones have struck infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, forcing power cuts, while the attacks overnight Tuesday consisted of nearly 300 drones, 18 ballistic missiles and seven cruise missiles, hitting eight regions and killing at least four people. Ukraine’s parliament rejected former prime minister Denys Shmyhal as the new energy minister.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/2010987717274861983

Continue reading

Roundup: Loosening the advertising rules they put into place

The federal government, in their infinite communications wisdom, has decided to change the rules around government advertising so that they can do things like more easily use slogans, and to advertise programmes before they have been passed by Parliament. Worse, their excuses for doing so are utterly ridiculous, saying that the more “dangerous and divided world” needs faster communications and the old process was “too slow and duplicative.” Sorry, you think you need to be able to advertise slogans or programmes that do not officially exist yet because it’s faster? Are you kidding me?

The point of these rules is to create a separation between party and government, and the Harper government had incidents where this got them into trouble, such as when Pierre Poilievre, as minister of Employment and Skills Development, showed up at a government announcement in party-branded attire and got in trouble with Elections Canada for it. These rules exist for a reason, but Carney has decided that they’re inconvenient for him, so he needs to alter them. If the Liberals’ usual kryptonite is arrogance, Carney’s personal brand of it is acting like a magnifying glass. He should be reminded of this fact, before he drives the party off the very cliff he rescued them from.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia used hypersonic medium-range missiles to strike Lviv early Friday morning, which is being considered a “warning” to Europe. That same day, drones hit two foreign-flagged civilian vessels in ports in the Odesa region. Here are Kyiv residents dealing with damage to their homes as a result of these attacks.

Continue reading

Roundup: Twenty years of ignoring a warning

I find myself a little bit fascinated with the story of the main water feeder pipe break in Calgary, mostly because of what it exposes about municipal politics in this country. Council was presented with a report today that shows that they were warned about this twenty years ago, and that nobody did anything about it during all that time. Twenty. Years. The report was commissioned after the 2024 pipe break, and here it is, broken again, because they didn’t finish the job.

Here is the independent panel's timeline of how risk was identified with the Bearspaw Feeder Main 20 years before it ruptured in June 2024.

Adam MacVicar (@adammacvicar.bsky.social) 2026-01-07T21:19:54.037Z

City councils didn’t prioritize it because they have been so preoccupied with keeping property taxes as low as possible that these kinds of major infrastructure projects continue to be underfunded and overlooked. City staff apparently have unclear reporting structures so nobody becomes responsible for this kind of an issue, and the author of the report was saying he wouldn’t lay the blame on any one individual or era of council. “This problem existed. It repeated itself. It did not surface to the right level of decision-making. And so it’s very difficult, in my opinion, to lay specific blame on any individual. We had a process weakness that was not corrected.”

The thing is, we have a lot of city councils in this country who are also focused solely on keeping their property taxes down, and placating NIMBYs, and we there is other critical infrastructure in this country that is bound for failure. Councils adopt a learned helplessness when city staff don’t do their due diligence about these kinds of failures, and vanishingly few councils are doing their jobs in ensuring these kinds of issues are actually being dealt with. This could be a warning for other cities to take a second look and ensure that they are doing the inspections and maintenance that was ignored here…or they will rely on normalcy bias and leave it for later because clearly it won’t happen to them, right? I have a feeling I know which is more likely.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia attacked two seaports in the Odesa region on Wednesday, while late-night strikes knocked out power in two southeaster regions.

Continue reading

Roundup: Appointing another friend to an important post

It’s now official—prime minster Mark Carney has announced his plan to name his friend Mark Wiseman to the role of Ambassador to the US as of February 15th. Wiseman has no prior diplomatic experience, but was a mergers & acquisitions lawyer before becoming an asset manager at Blackrock, and yes, he was a donor to Carney’s leadership campaign as well as his election campaign, donating the maximum for each.

There were immediate howls about this appointment from the Bloc and the Conservatives because of Wiseman’s involvement in the “Century Initiative,” which was a proposal to triple Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100, which we were on track to do regardless (before the current decision to halt immigration to the point where our population was in decline last quarter). The Bloc are treating this kind of thing like their own version of “Great Replacement Theory” because a) they are an ethnic nationalist party, and b) they see an expansion of the rest of the Canadian population as diminishing Quebec’s influence, because they heavily limit their own immigration (because again, ethnic nationalism) and their birth rate is very low. The Conservatives are treating it like Great Replacement Theory writ-large, and use it to scaremonger about Muslims and such, while also pretending to care about Quebec. There was also that stupid brouhaha about when Wiseman retweeted an Andrew Coyne column headline about said Initiative and people took it to be Wiseman insulting Quebec, so that’s great. Oh, and he apparently said he’s opposed to Supply Management, so of course Quebec and the majority of Conservatives are also opposed to his appointment.

This being said, I find myself increasingly uncomfortable by the fact that Carney keeps naming friends and former colleagues to top jobs, some elected (Tim Hodgson), some appointed (the head of the Defence Investment Agency), is a worrying trend because it’s starting to reek of cronyism. I also am reminded of the fate of Bill Morneau, who also did not grasp the ethical considerations in government of just calling up your friends and network to do things (in Morneau’s case, those friends were WE Charity), because that’s how you do them in the corporate world. Government is not the corporate world, and I know we’re all tired of hearing it, but no, you should not run government like a business or a corporation. Nothing good can come of this.

Programming Note: And that’s it for 2025. I’m taking a break from the blog until the first week of January, so enjoy your holidays everyone.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-12-22T23:08:01.593Z

Ukraine Dispatch

There was yet another strike on Odesa, the second within twenty-four hours. President Zelenskyy says those kidnapped villagers from Sumy region had long had dealings across the border without incident. Here is a look at Ukraine’s new low-cost interceptor drones, taking out attacking Russian drones for much cheaper. (Gallery here).

Continue reading