Roundup: Brian Mulroney passes away

News came down last evening that former prime minister Brian Mulroney had passed away after some health challenges.

The Star has a pretty good obituary here, as well as some of the reactions to his passing, and the CBC has a series of photos over the course of his life.

https://twitter.com/yfblanchet/status/1763346642294411713

Bloc MP Louis Plamondon, who was first elected as a PC MP in 1984 along with Mulroney, reflects on Mulroney.

In reaction, Susan Delacourt notes that it’s hard to imagine a Canada without the larger-than-life Mulroney given his lasting legacy, and also reflects on the political lessons that she learned in covering him during his time in office. Ian Brodie praises Mulroney for his strategic sense in global affairs at a time of great upheaval.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces are pushing hard against the front lines in the east and southeastern parts of Ukraine, which Ukraine has repelled, and they do keep shooting down Russian warplanes, downing another three on Thursday alone. Ukraine is using more domestically-manufactured military equipment, as they strive to move more toward self-sufficiency and away from faltering Western aid.

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Roundup: The wrong people taking credit for disinflation

Statistics Canada released the January Consumer Price Index data yesterday, and lo, it shows that inflation is dipping back into the control range at 2.9% annualized, which was lower than anticipated, and fairly broad-based including food prices decelerating to just above the headline number, meaning prices are stabilising finally, and yet somehow, with carbon prices still in place, and the grocery oligopolies not having been subjected to punitive windfall taxes. Imagine that!

In all seriousness, because there were month-over-month price drops in fuel prices in Manitoba thanks to Wab Kinew’s decision to pause gas taxes, and Saskatchewan not collecting the carbon levy, we got a bunch of people who should know better saying stupid things about carbon prices and inflation. Kinew, who has economics training, should especially know better.

Inflation is a year-over-year measure. Carbon prices have a negligible impact on it because it rises at the same level every year, so it’s not inflationary. A one-time drop in prices is also not deflationary or disinflationary because it’s a one-time drop, not sustained or pervasive. If you need a further explainer, economist Stephen Gordon has resurrected this thread to walk you through it.

On the subject of things that are unfathomably dumb, it looks like the CRA has decided to buy Saskatchewan’s transparent legal fiction that the provincial government is the natural gas distributor for the province, in spite of it being against the clear letter of the federal and provincial law, which means that consequences for the province not remitting the carbon levy on heating will be borne by Cabinet and not the board of SaskEnergy. What the hell?

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian attacks on the northern part of Ukraine killed seven on Tuesday, while Ukraine’s forces say they destroyed 13 out of 19 drones launched by Russia on Wednesday. Ukrainian officials are investigating the Russians shooting three soldiers captured on Sunday. Here is a look at the shattered ruins of Avdiivka. Ukraine’s state arms producer has signed an agreement with a German arms manufacturer to help produce more air defences domestically.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1759942168989360468

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Roundup: Another day of Guilbeault-baiting

It’s becoming a little too predictable, and yet here we are again. Steven Guilbeault said something not even that controversial—that we have enough roads to suit our needs so the government isn’t going to spend more infrastructure dollars on major projects to grow them, while they focus on other things like transit and active transport. He’s not even terribly wrong for the most part—there is reams of evidence to show that expanding roads and highways doesn’t cure congestion but merely causes more, so the focus should be on other priorities.

Predictably, everyone freaked out—Conservatives went into full meltdown, and the premiers all lined up to howl about this, when again, they know he’s not wrong, and oh, by the way, there isn’t any money left in the infrastructure fund anyway, so why does it matter? Guilbeault was trotted out to say that he should have been more specific in his comments, and he was mostly referring to the Third Link proposal in Quebec City, which they have no intention of funding, but of course, by that point, the narrative is set as chuds across the Internet have been memeing this for all it’s worth.

Dunking on Guilbeault has become something of a national preoccupation, and news media likes nothing more than to both-sides this sort of thing, taking the bait to continue to give uncharitable readings and framing this as he and the government being “out of touch.” If there’s one thing that makes everyone angry, it’s the whole “war on the car” bullshit that keeps incredibly bad city councillors and mayors in power across this country. And we wonder why we are incapable of serious discourse in this country?

https://twitter.com/s_guilbeault/status/1757961974137168362

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that they used naval drones to sink a Russian landing ship in the Black Sea. Here is an explainer of the security assurances that Ukraine is signing with a number of countries including Canada.

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QP: Call in the RCMP…that we don’t direct

Both the prime minister and his deputy were present today, as were all of the other leaders, so that was nice to see. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and after reciting some slogans, he mischaracterized the Auditor General’s report into ArriveCan and boasted that he wrote to the RCMP to call on them to expand their investigation into wrongdoing and demanded that the prime minister not block their efforts. Justin Trudeau stated that the pandemic was a once-in-a-century event and that they expected rules to be followed in spite of this, and that the RCMP will do their job, but that this government is for border security, which the Conservatives vote against. Poilievre listed some revelations in the report and demanded that the prime minister respect the independence of a criminal investigation. Trudeau assured him that they would, and that there would be consequences for any civil servants that broke rules. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his boast that he wrote the RCMP to expand their investigation, and Trudeau repeated that the pandemic was once-in-a-generation event, and that they expected civil servants to follow the rules, but they don’t need to tell the RCMP to do their jobs. Poilievre howled that Trudeau keeps blocking investigations and accused him of filling the pockets of friends, all of which is specious on its face. Trudeau said that this was an example of Poilievre reverting to type and playing partisan games. Poilievre tried to spin this as Trudeau calling the Auditor General the conspiracy theorist, which was bizarre. Trudeau said that Poilievre needs to work on his listening skills, and that they await the results of the investigation so that those who broke the rules will be held to account.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and wanted the government to adopt the motion to allow for advanced directives on assisted dying. Trudeau recited that this is a very personal decision, and that they responsible for ensuring that vulnerable people are protected. Blanchet insisted that they move ahead with their motion, and Trudeau insisted that these are the kinds of conversations they need to be having.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP and quoted the National Housing Advocate and demanded that he follow her recommendations. Trudeau said that he welcomed the NDP’s support in their housing measures. Singh repeated his demand in French, and Trudeau said that they will continue to listen to community organisations and municipal partners. 

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QP: Gathering clips about ArriveCan

The prime minister was in town but not present, though his deputy was. The Auditor General’s report on ArriveCan had dropped earlier in the morning, and we all knew this was going to led the day, even though not every leader was present to make hay with it, or to harvest clips for their socials. Pierre Poilievre started off in French, and linked the $60 million spent on ArriveCan to people lining up at food banks, which is utterly specious, and denounced the app. Dominic LeBlanc stated that they read the report and accepted the recommendations, and that rules were not followed when they expected them to be. Poilievre insinuated that Trudeau was present and hiding behind his minister when he wasn’t, and then railed about the app again. This time Jean-Yves Duclos read his own thanks to the Auditor General, and said that many of the recommendations have already been implemented and the rest will be shortly. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his earlier specious connection between the economic situation and the spending on this app, and LeBlanc reiterated that they called for investigations they learned of allegations, and that they will hold those found responsible to account. Poilievre insisted that the prime minister could have stopped this, which is a huge reach, and Duclos listed measures they have implemented to improve contracting. Poilievre tried once again to insinuate that Trudeau was present and not answering, and said the money could have been better spent on inspecting containers at ports smuggling out stolen cars. LeBlanc said they have no lessons to take from a party that slashed the border inspectors when they were in government. 

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and declared there to be a consensus on advanced directives for assisted dying, and wanted them legalised. Arif Virani says that they will be working with Quebec on next steps. Therrien repeated his demand, taking swipes at the Conservatives in the process, and Virani reiterated that they want to treat these issues in a thoughtful way.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and pretty much stole Poilievre’s lines on ArriveCan, to which Duclos again thanked the Auditor General for her report, and that changes were being made. Singh repeated the question in French, and LeBlanc recited his lines about identifying the series of practices not being followed.

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Roundup: Bad Supreme Court reporting is bad

There is a reason why journalists should have beats, and why it can be dangerous to write about topics or institutions when you’re not familiar with them. There was a case in point yesterday in the National Post which was trying to sound some kind of alarm about what’s going on at the Supreme Court of Canada—except there’s actually no story here. I’m really not trying to pick on the reporter of the piece, because he’s a good journalist, but he just doesn’t know the file, and got swept up in what a particular lawyer was telling him without having a proper bullshit detector.

The supposed crisis is that the Court is hearing fewer cases lately, and a lot of what it is hearing is being decided in rulings from the bench, meaning they generally don’t release written decisions, and that this is somehow bad for developing case law. Because he talked to one lawyer who tracks stats, he figures that’s the story. Except it’s really not. They’re hearing fewer cases as a direct result of the pandemic, which slowed down the ability to hear cases at the trial court level, which then slows down appeals, which slows down their ability to get to the Supreme Court. They piece pooh-poohs that almost four years later this is still a problem, when of course it is. These things take a long time, particularly when courts were operating on a minimal standard for nearly two years. And because they were operating minimally, most of what they did hear were criminal cases, because they have timelines attached lest they get stayed for delays. That means that most of what does filter up to the Supreme Court are criminal cases, many of them as of right (meaning that at the appeal level, it wasn’t unanimous, so it automatically goes to the Supreme Court of Canada). That’s why a lot of these cases are being decided from the bench—there isn’t any matter of national importance being decided, so they have few needs for written rulings. In the Court’s current session, only two of the cases are not criminal because that’s how the lower courts have been operating. It’s a problem for sure, but it’s one because provinces aren’t funding courts adequately, and the federal government is too slow to make appointments to fill vacancies. This is not a Supreme Court problem.

Furthermore, the piece quotes from a literal constitutional crank—a particular law professor who is of the “burn it all down” school—because it’s a lazy journalist’s trick to make the piece sound more controversial or edgy. But here, he’s saying that he can’t believe they weren’t hearing certain cases without actually saying what he wanted them to hear, and then, out of nowhere, says the Court is going to have to expand, but doesn’t explain why. It makes no sense other than it’s piggybacking on an American issue that has nothing to do with our Court. There is also concern that the court’s decisions are a lot more divided these days and not unanimous without actually exploring that. This is largely because of the different styles of chief justice—under Beverley McLachlin, she strove for more unanimous decisions, and in the end, many of the rulings became so narrowly focused in order to achieve unanimity that they were largely useless for the purposes of developing case law. There is more dissent now because Richard Wagner isn’t concerned with achieving unanimity to the detriment of the decisions, and you have a couple of judges on the court who like to be contrarians. That’s not a bad thing. There is no crisis with the Supreme Court, and if the reporter had any grounding in the institution, he would have seen that there’s no smoke, no fire, and stats without context are useless.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The fighting is now inside the city of Avdiivka, which Russians have been trying to capture for months. There was another prisoner swap yesterday, with 100 exchanged on each side. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has replaced the top army commander, looking for fresh ideas on how to push Russian invaders back. (More about the new chief here).

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QP: Getting partisan about gendered violence

The prime minister was off attending the big auto theft summit several blocks away from the West Block, while his deputy was similarly absent, as were all other leaders. Andrew Scheer led off in English, read some specious statistics about auto theft, and demanded more tough policies. Jennifer O’Connell countered with the fact that five years under the Harper government saw even higher auto theft rates than now. Scheer volleyed that those were the first five years with the problem they inherited, before giving a misleading statement about carbon prices and grocery prices. François-Philippe Champagne deployed his “take no lessons” line and gave a swipe about Jenni Byrne. Scheer returned with the number of former Liberal staffers who lobby for Loblaws, and gave an “it’s the carbon tax, stupid.” The Speaker warned him, before Champagne extolled his efforts to get new grocers into Canada. Gérard Deltell took over in French, and accused the government of prioritising photo ops over building housing. Champagne said that the only thing the Conservatives are good at is insulting  mayors. Deltell noted the decrease in housing stocks under the Liberals and demanded action. Champagne said that he has nothing to learn about videos and photo ops from the Conservatives, as they don’t solve problems.

Claude DeBellefeuille led for the Bloc, and she wanted the government to let Quebec proceed with advanced request for MAiD, to which Jean-Yves Duclos noted that as the former minster of health, he wanted to recognise Quebec’s movement and said that they would work together. DeBellefeuille repeated the demand for the Criminal Code changes, and Duclos said that they need to protect the most vulnerable, and promised to look closely at this.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the Bloc, and demanded support for their “grocery prices” bill, and in response, Champagne stated that they have moved forward with competition reform and took most of the NDP’s recommendations. Lindsay Mathyssen repeated the demand in English, to which Champagne repeated the same response in English.

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QP: Who has more connections to Loblaws lobbyists?

The prime minster was present as is customary for a Wednesday, while his deputy was away. All of the other leaders were present as well for a second day in a row. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, citing rental increases as though that were a federal jurisdiction. Justin Trudeau cited a Conservative MP pointing out that the government has new announcements every day, which Trudeau agreed, that they were rolling out programmes to help Canadians and speed up home building. Poilievre insisted that the government just bloats bureaucracy but doesn’t build houses. Trudeau called him out for insulting mayors and using the homeless as props while offering nothing. Poilievre cited CMHC figures and population estimates for needing another five million units. Trudeau said that they were investing in municipalities to decrease red tape and accelerate building while increasing densification. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, to which Trudeau repeated his same response. Poilievre trotted his line that people can’t live in programmes and announcements, to which Trudeau walked into the trap by pointing to an announcement he made about investments made years ago turned into houses today, and accused Poilievre of insulting mayors and people’s intelligence. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, pointed to the government delaying the expansion of MAiD and that if the Conservatives get in, they will lock it down when the delay expires. Trudeau said that they are upholding fundamental rights and freedoms, but this is a difficult issue that they will “continue to reflect” on. Blanchet wanted the government to adopt Quebec’s request for advance requests, to which Trudeau insisted this was an very difficult decision for them to make as a society.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, to demand the government support his bill on grocery prices. Trudeau noted that they have measures in the Fall Economic Statement that align with the NDP proposal, and trotted the accusations around Jenni Byrne. Singh switched to French to repeat the demand, and Trudeau repeated his same response. 

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Roundup: Sanctions theatre, Hamas edition

Yesterday, foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly announced that Canada would be sanctioning senior leaders of Hamas…which is already a listed terrorist organization. The whole exercise appears to be little more than sanctions theatre, according to Jessica Davis, who does this for a living. Nothing Joly announced is likely to make any difference compared to what is already on the books, meaning this is likely just a hollow gesture to make it looks like the government is doing something without actually doing anything. Of course, if they really wanted to do something, they could properly resource the RCMP’s sanctions enforcement regime and their counter terrorism financing abilities (or better yet, disband the RCMP and start up a dedicated federal policing force that can specialise in this kind of work).

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian attack overnight on a village in the Kharkiv region killed a two-month old baby. The Donetsk region’s governor says that his province is pounded by 2500 Russian strikes daily, while Avdiivka, a short distance away, has been the focus of Russian attention for months now. Ukrainian special forces say they blew up a drilling platform in the Black Sea that Russians were using to support their drone operations. As the shake-up of the Ukrainian military approaches, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants a dedicated branch devoted to drones.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1754881455702897018

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Roundup: The muted federal response to Danielle Smith’s latest policy

As expected, there was a federal response to Danielle Smith’s draconian anti-queer/trans policy video, but it was mostly just words of condemnation. Marci Ien and Randy Boissonnault had a scrum about it, but basically said that because they don’t have any document from Smith—the legislature isn’t sitting, and Smith herself said later in the day that nothing would be formally in writing until autumn—they don’t know how best to respond to this, so in the meantime, they’re going to consult and come up with ideas at the Cabinet table as to what the federal government can do, but one supposes that something like a reference to the Supreme Court of Canada of this policy, along with those of Saskatchewan and New Brunswick, may be in the works. We’ll have to see, but it’ll take time, so for the moment, it’s a lot of words of affirmation.

Smith did hold a press conference, nearly twenty-four hours after her video was released, and in it, she kept repeating that she was trying to protect youth from “irreversible medical decisions,” which both conflates the purpose of any social transitioning that they may do beforehand, and buys holus-bolus into the moral panic that kids are being indoctrinated into being trans and then “mutilating and sterilizing” themselves, even though there are vanishingly few “top” surgeries for minors, and no “bottom” surgeries at all. But dubious and discredited reporting that echoes through the right-wing media ecosystem has convinced parents that it’s happening (thus the outsized concern for their “right” to know), along with the pre-existing notion that if they’re told, they can stop their kids from being queer or trans (in other words, de facto conversion therapy). But nobody wants to talk about this moral panic. (More analysis about Smith’s move here).

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s office has instructed his MPs to say nothing, especially to the media, and to report all requests to his office, and if they are to say something, it’s to emphasise “parental rights over decisions related to their children,” which a) is not actually a legal right in Canada, and b) has been the dog whistle for anti-queer and anti-trans rhetoric for a long time now. And of course, he wants them to stay quiet, but not because he’s worried about another homophobic eruption from someone like Cheryl Gallant, but rather he doesn’t want anyone coming across as too sympathetic because he needs to keep demonstrating to the far-right, reactionary crowd that he thinks is going to win him the election that he’s not too “woke” or small-l liberal, because that would doom their support. It’s little different than Smith keeping this up because she doesn’t want the leopards in her party (like the “Take Back Alberta” crowd) to eat her face like they did Jason Kenney. When you let your party get taken over or be entirely beholden to the crazies, you lose control, and that’s exactly what is happening here.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that seas drones were used to sink a small Russian warship in the Black Sea, while Russia claims that Patriot missiles fired from Ukraine brought down the plane that was totally carrying POWs and wasn’t a psy op (really). Ukraine’s army chief published a series of priorities and challenges are rumours of his rift with president Volodymyr Zelenskyy continue to circulate.

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