Tag Archives: Lawful Access

The “dangerous bluff” of a referendum

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Prime minister Mark Carney made a housing announcement yesterday morning, when he was inevitably asked about the proposed Alberta referendum. Carney invoked his time in the UK and the experience with Brexit, that for people who think that this kind of referendum is just a way to send a message and that there are no consequences are playing a “dangerous bluff” that will have consequences. And yes, he would know, because he watched it happen and lived with the fallout. But will this actually help? Hard to say, but Conservatives have already been seeding the narrative that Carney created a lot of the post-Brexit economic damage with claims that he was “printing money” and fuelling inflation and so on, so the very people who need to hear the message have already been primed to ignore it. So that’s helpful.

Carney was also asked about the fourteen members of his caucus that sent him a letter about his environmental backsliding, and to this, Carney basically swatted the question away saying he has 160 other members of caucus who are just fine with his moves. This, however, starts to sound a wee bit arrogant for a party leader who has been patting himself on the back for listening to his caucus more than his predecessor did. You can pretty much guarantee that it’s not just these fourteen, but there are plenty more members of caucus who aren’t quite as willing to stick their necks out just yet but are similarly unhappy. They also learned a lot of lessons about pushing back against a leader when they started organising against Justin Trudeau in caucus, so the lessons are fresh, and Carney should remember that. As well, he’s betrayed the “Value(s)” he campaigned on and wrote a book about, so he’s already on thin ice with his voters on this issue. He may want to show a bit more contrition than this particular combative stance.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-25T13:08:03.361Z

My Latest:

  • My weekend column on Danielle Smith’s referendum, and why this is the culmination of decades of populism rotting the politics of the province.
  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take talks about the glut of senate bills hitting the Commons, and why MPs who complain about it have only themselves to blame.
  • For National Magazine, I looked at the appointment of the new advisory body for the next Supreme Court of Canada justice.

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QP: Resurrecting the “Netflix tax” falsehood

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The PM was in town but away from the Chamber, while Pierre Poilievre was present, and he led off in French, claiming it was an illusion that the war in the Middle East was raising gasoline prices when he claimed it was Liberal taxes and the weak dollar. (Are you kidding me?!) François-Philippe Champagne, in his usual ebullient manner, praised the “good news” of the actions the government has taken to assure affordability. Poilievre then claimed that they were blaming housing prices on Iran (huh?) and demanded the government cut all gasoline taxes. Champagne reminded him of the statements of the International Energy Agency that we are in the worst energy crisis in the history, and exhorted the  opposition to vote for their budget bill. Poilievre switched to English, and he lamented all of the taxes people need to pay, and that the government is planning to triple the “Netflix tax.” (There is no Netflix tax). Champagne decried that the Conservatives have voted against all affordability measures. Poilievre then pivoted to property rights in BC, and falsely claimed the government was forbidden to defend those rights, and Rebecca Alty read her statement that the government has defended fee simple and that they are pursuing the matter in the courts. Poilievre tried again, and Sean Fraser reminded him of the actions they are taken to protect property rights while advancing reconciliation. Poilievre insisted that he just wanted federal lawyers to make protection or property the primary argument, and claimed that they were banned of doing so. Alty read a script about the litigation directive as to why Poilievre is wrong.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and mocked that the federal government is “reviewing” the referendum question in Alberta, and that the Clarity Act is contempt for people and provinces. Dominic LeBlanc said that how is the time to work together to counter the tariff threats from the US, and they were working to show that Confederation works. Normandin was not mollified and went to bat for separatist referendums, and LeBlanc reiterated that they are focused squarely on economic issues. Rhéal Fortin took over to read his own condemnation of the Clarity Act, and LeBlanc repeated his same assurances.

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Roundup: A referendum on a referendum

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Alberta premier Danielle Smith held a televised address last night to announce that the province would be holding a non-binding referendum on whether to hold a binding referendum on separation. No, seriously. After the separatists’ petition was tossed by the Court of King’s Bench, and the Forever Canada petition was unsuitable for the purposes of such a referendum on separation, Smith decided to try and be too-clever-by-half, and sit on that fence as hard as possible so that she can try and throw the separatists a bone without looking like she is actively campaigning for them (in spite of the fact that she has given them absolutely everything under the sun to make their lives easier, including a referendum with no democratic mandate).

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mmfrqdahts2x

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-22T01:00:14.133Z

While I will write about this in more depth in my weekend column, let me say for the moment that this was Smith’s choice, and it does nothing but prolong the uncertainty, make it more likely to give the separatists leverage because it can be shrugged off as a non-binding vote that will become the repository of the grievances that Albertans have been marinating in since the eighties, and spiral out of control like Brexit did. But Smith refuses to confront the separatists, and nobody will actually say the words “Normal people can buy UCP memberships and drown out the separatist loons trying to take control of the party.” No one person has even suggested that. Instead, we’re pretending that referendums are democracy when they are in fact just elite-driven fuckery dressed up in democratic clothes, and ignoring the crisis in grassroots democracy that has created this crisis in the first place. It’s absolutely damning about the state of the province.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2057607415596831039

Jen Gerson: "The momentum here right now is on the side of people who treat the idea of the Republic of Alberta as a kind of religious movement. It's a millenarian movement … heavily influenced by the kind of nihilism that infects a lot of the broader MAGA movement."

— Scott Robertson (@sarobertson.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T21:03:33.190Z

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre was asked about a potential referendum earlier in the day, and he said he would fight for Canada, but did so in the most tepid way possible while he continued to grind on the invented grievances that have helped get us to this point, because he is both a coward and intellectually bankrupt. Yes, it’s important that we have conservatives be the voices for national unity in the province, but if you’re going to do it by carrying on the fictions that somehow the Liberals were responsible for the oil crash in 2014, you’re not actually helping. And if someone suggests Jason Kenney be that voice because he is now an enemy of the separatists after they ate his face after he brought them into the “united” party, then they deserve a smack upside the head. Kenney created this mess, and he refuses to take responsibility for that fact, and until he does, he shouldn’t be any kind of voice of moral authority here.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mmeymnle2k2j

"Unblock the resources." Oil production is at record highs. Alberta has the highest per capita incomes in the country. Just mouthing along with the invented grievances of the bad faith actors who put us in this position.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T19:44:20.395Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-21T13:08:04.230Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Here is a look at all of the Russian energy sites that have been attacked by Ukrainian drones over the past couple of weeks.

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Roundup: Authoritarian theatre, separatist referendum edition

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Danielle Smith’s attempt to engineer a separation referendum in Alberta went entirely off the rails yesterday in one of the most cynical yet spectacular ways yesterday. The legislative committee that is supposed to make the determination on the petition process met yesterday, in a somewhat desperate move, to consider the Forever Canada petition, which Smith has been poised to weaponise as her referendum because it wouldn’t require First Nations consultation because it’s framed in the positive of remaining in Canada. Never mind that petition author and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk doesn’t actually want this as a referendum—he wants it to be a vote in the legislature, so that the UCP owns it. Nevertheless, midway through the meeting, the UCP sent out a press release saying that they had agreed to turn this into a referendum, complete with quotes from the chair, when no votes had been taken.

And then all hell broke loose. The UCP sent out a note to disregard the press release, while inside the committee, NDP members were moving points of privilege which will need to be adjudicated by the Speaker of the Assembly. It also turns out that Danielle Smith had booked airtime tonight, so this entirely looks like the fix was in, and that the committee process was merely authoritarian theatre to manufacture consent, so that Smith can continue to placate the separatists in her base. The whole thing is both cowardly on Smith’s part, and just amateurish beyond belief.

Now we know.Smith committed to give separatists a referendum. She pre-recorded her tomorrow’s TV address, before the Legislature committee had a chance to vote on the #ForeverCanadian petition. UCP sent out a press release on a vote that didn’t happen, while they supposedly listened to me#ableg

— Hon. Thomas A. Lukaszuk (@lukaszukab.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T00:17:52.059Z

But there is a point to this amateurishness, which Jen Gerson points out here—these people think that they’re strategic geniuses for engineering conservative victories in Alberta, and so they’re overconfident in their abilities. Jason Kenney was, and lo, the leopards he let into the house at his face, while Smith has tied herself into so many knots to try and placate those same leopards in the hope that they won’t eat their face, while they are staring at her and licking their chops, but she insists that she’s the strategic genius here. None of this is going to end well, in part because these are deeply stupid and unserious people, and the country is going to suffer as a result.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-20T19:08:01.746Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missile, drone and artillery attacks on Dnipro killed two and injured six. Ukraine is bolstering their northern defences over concerns of a planned new attack on Kyiv. Oil refining in central Russia is at a standstill thanks to Ukrainian attacks.

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Roundup: Stupid games with the Snowbirds

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This story about the Snowbirds has ground down my patience with this government. A couple of weeks ago, Conservative MPs and Senators were in the middle of a meltdown over the fate of the aerial demonstration squadron, and we kept being assured that this was nothing, they were going to keep flying, that the Conservatives were misinterpreting the schedule because it only went up to fall, and future dates were typically released later, and there would be more to announce on the 19th, but their future was assured. And media outlets wrote whole stories based on these Conservative meltdowns which had no basis in fact.

And then the 19th comes around, and the defence minister announces that the squadron is being grounded at the end of the summer until the early 2030s until replacements can be acquired, which they are still negotiating (though some of the stories say the replacements are already on order, but they’re still negotiating, so I’m not sure how that works). So, the minister was not exactly being honest when he said that everything was fine, because once the squadron is grounded, it will have to be completely rebuilt once the new planes do arrive, and that could be in five years or it could be in ten (given the way procurements go in this country). When asked, Prime Minister Mark Carney shrugged and said it was a problem he inherited so not his fault, but guys—this is not what you were messaging two weeks ago. You need to own that.

As for the specifics, it seems that in spite of the Trudeau government’s attempt to prolong their lifespan until 2030, the airframes were showing too much wear for them to be safely extended, so they didn’t make it that far. But certain Conservative MPs going on political shows yesterday seem to think that because this money was spent, that the existing jets should keep flying regardless. (That’s not how airframes work!) But yes, Conservatives are correct in pointing out that the replacement process should have started much earlier under the Trudeau government, but no, signing a petition on the Conservative website is not going to change anything (other than, of course, to mine your data). Frankly, everyone has behaved absolutely abominably throughout this whole affair, and it’s one more reason why we can’t have nice things in this country.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-19T19:08:20.600Z

In case you missed it:

  • My story for National Magazine about Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision that creates a tort of intimate partner violence moving forward.
  • My long weekend column on the fact that this government is inept at internet policy, whether it’s lawful access of the massive surveillance needed to age-gate sites.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck Chernihiv and Sumy regions, killing four, after previously striking Odesa and Dnipro, as well as Ukraine’s Danube port in Izmail. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struck a major oil refinery in Moscow, and their medium-range strikes are taking out logistics hubs supporting the front lines.

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Roundup: More gas-fired electricity, just because

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Prime minister Mark Carney announced his national electricity plan yesterday, which he’s calling Powering Canada Strong™ (and I swear to Zeus, I am so tired of branding everything “Canada Strong™” by this point). He wants to double production by 2050, as well as connect provincial power grids with interties, build the skilled workforce necessary, and manufacture the technology to do so in Canada. And it all sounds well and good, but to get there, he plans to weaken the Trudeau-era Clean Electricity Regulations in order to allow a lot more natural gas-fired production. You know, for “flexibility.”

At this point you have to wonder how Carney can keep up the pretence that he is still going to meet our climate targets, and yet, he keeps saying that’s what’s going to happen. Sure, he’ll “adjust them,” but if you say we’re weakening them, he gets testy and huffy. But the notion that by “building up we can drive emissions down” is farcical on its face. It relies on the same logic of reducing emissions intensity while increasing the overall volume of production (and it was a tell that he used emissions intensity when talking about gas-fired electricity)—you’re still increasing overall emissions, albeit at a slightly lower rate. And to be clear, Canada was making progress in driving emission down, and we had an actual path to meeting our targets, but that has been completely blown out of the water now.

I’m also getting increasingly tired of this being billed as “pragmatic,” when it’s not in the longer term. The climate crisis is already here, and it’s reflected in the dramatic increase in wildfire season, extreme weather events, and increasing droughts that have pushed up food prices, at home and abroad. We can’t just keep ignoring this and treating climate goals or environmental protection as a luxury add-on. It’s essential to ensuring we have a stable economy of the future, and the fact that Carney and nearly everyone else is ignoring this fact is a really, really big problem, because the costs for kicking this down the road are already being felt. It’s only going to get worse from here, and they keep insisting that they want to make that future pain as bad as it can possibly get.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-14T19:08:01.779Z

Programming Note: I am taking the full long weekend off from the blog. See you Wednesday, and happy Victoria Day.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s massive drone attack continues, with the count at over 1567 drones since Wednesday, and the death toll now over 37 as an apartment building was struck. Zelenskyy’s former chief of staff has now been arrested in relation to money laundering charges. Meanwhile, the government of Latvia has lost its parliamentary majority over the handling of the incident where a Ukrainian drone accidentally flew into their territory.

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Roundup: Quashing a petition, neutering the carbon price

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The Alberta Court of King’s Bench ruled yesterday that the separatist petition did not engage the duty to consult with First Nations, given that it directly affects their interests, and it is effectively quashed, before the signatures were validated. It’s big news, and this could or should have been the off-ramp from the referendum that Alberta premier Danielle Smith could use to keep the situation from spiralling. But that’s not what’s happening.

This basically kills 301,000-signature petition separatists delivered to Elections AB to force referendum on independence.Premier Smith could still call referendum as gov't act, like separatist groups want her to. But lack of Indigenous consultation would still be problem. bsky.app/profile/mark…

— Jason Markusoff (@markusoff.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T20:09:36.464Z

Smith has instead declared that this decision is “anti-democratic” (which it absolutely is not, and this is populist rot), and that she will appeal it, because she wants this referendum to happen, either under the bullshit justification of a “relief valve” (which never works—it just makes things worse), or to get leverage from the federal government, not that it’s good leverage because it’s just driving away investment from the province because nobody wants to put money into a separatism situation where the uncertainty cranks up to eleven. But this will also mean that the separatists who control Smith are going to demand she just do a government-initiated referendum, which she has absolutely no democratic legitimacy to do, and which also can’t get around the duty to consult. After all, it’s treaty land, and the treaties are with the Crown, not the province of Alberta, which was not even in existence when those treaties were signed. Nevertheless, Smith has proven she is a separatist, in spite of her protestations, and this is

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mlrcdwaag223

Entirely predictable.This was the endgame: give the appearance of collecting signatures. Whether or not you meet the threshold (legally) matters little if they'll never be counted.Then pressure the premier to call the vote.Will the premier call the big bluff?

— Jared Wesley (@jaredwesley.ca) 2026-05-14T02:49:22.510Z

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2054710644705022101

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2054711562947158058

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2054714767970050544

Meanwhile, word is out that the pipeline agreement will be signed with Alberta on Friday, and it rests on a significantly reduced industrial carbon price, and if Alberta is getting a special deal, well, that’s going to become the floor for the rest of the country because the whole reason the national price is constitutional, per the Supreme Court of Canada, is to ensure uniformity so that provinces can’t undercut one another on a race to the bottom. And to add to that, Carney’s rationale for cutting the consumer carbon levy was that they could make the industrial price more effective, and now he’s gutting that. And what will he get for this capitulation to Alberta? Nothing. It won’t appease the separatists, because they thrive on invented grievances and conspiracy theories. We’re going to blow up our environmental plans, build a pipeline to the coast on diminishing returns once the situation in Iran is cleared up and the world returns to a supply glut position, and the planet will burn. It’s a wonder that Liberals can look themselves in the mirror.

No lies detected.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T15:25:58.917Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-13T19:08:01.569Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia hit Kyiv with a massive drone and missile barrage early this morning, killing at least one and injuring at least sixteen others. This followed a daytime drone attack that struck close to the borders of NATO countries, killing six in the process. Ukraine has resumed targeting Russian oil and gas facilities.

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Roundup: The separatists continue their takeover

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Things in Alberta continue to go poorly for people who care about things like democracy and accountability, while separatist leaders are encouraging their followers to all take out UCP memberships so that they can nominate separatist candidates for the party in advance of the next election, so that they can further push Danielle Smith to ensure that they get their referendum, and everything they want to go with it. The party is de facto separatist already, as they control the bulk of the UCP grassroots mechanism, and this would just be completing the takeover provided that no centrist normies also take out memberships to stop them. That is, if they consider the UCP actually worth salvaging.

"I never thought leopards would eat MY face," sobs politician, who encouraged leopards to keep eating faces and hold province-wide vote on face-eating

— Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2026-05-11T16:28:13.006Z

The fact that when he created the party, Jason Kenney didn’t provide for any adequate failsafe mechanisms to prevent hostile takeovers is not unsurprising, considering how he crowed about how this would be a “grassroots party,” but then he chased out the centrist normies who would have provided a check on the absolute loons that came to dominate the membership. Of course, Kenney thought that he could control these face-eating leopards, while they noticed that this face was right there, so they ate it. And now Smith continues to believe that she too can control these leopards, even though they’ve fully backed her into a corner and she is doing their bidding rather than the other way around, and it’s only a matter of time before her face is fully eaten as well, while the province goes to absolute shit because she was too self-interested to do the right thing at any point in time.

Meanwhile, as the voter list leak scandal rolls along, it sounds like the UCP staffer that attended the Centurion Project webinar was the caucus executive director (which is an odd title), but she didn’t pass along any information to Smith’s office about the fact that they doxxed Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley as part of the demonstration. That’s kind of embarrassing for Smith, given that she chastised Naheed Nenshi for not informing her about what happened, while her own staffer was there, watched what went down, and thought it was a-okay and not worthy of reporting. That’s not good.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-11T13:08:04.717Z

Ukraine Dispatch

As attacks resumed on Ukraine, president Zelenskyy noted that Russia has no intention of ending the war. Ukraine has is making drone deals with some twenty countries, including Canada.

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Roundup: Mixed messages about deeper integration

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Late last week, prime minister Mark Carney was at the Global Progress Action Summit in Toronto, and gave a speech that seems to be a bit of a Rorschach test about how you feel about him and the job he’s doing. While I believe he’s correct in saying that the loss of control people feel with affordability and the rise of digital asbestos leads to a “politics of grievance,” I am less convinced the same is true for immigration, and that it has proven a reliable scapegoat by everyone, Carney included, which is absolutely dangerous—especially when he uses phrases like “taking back control.” He also says that the current moment has been “seized by politicians who seek to destroy and dismantle and progressives must answer by building,” but he has been eroding and quietly dismantling the actual progressive programmes brought in by his predecessor. The fact that he is calling himself a “progressive” is stretching the definition to its breaking point.

Amidst this, there was another statement that raises even more eyebrows, which is that “Like Mexico, Canada remains open to deeper integration, including options for fortress North America in (certain) sectors. And to be clear, those offers are on the table.” Deeper integration? Fortress North America? So, after all of the talk about how being solely dependent on the US as a single trading partner has been a strategic weakness and that we need to diversify so that we have options and can’t be held hostage, we want to integrate even more closely in strategic sectors with the same country that has been trying to hold us hostage, threatening our sovereignty, and which has taken to bullying us because they think they can get away with it without consequence? I mean, I get that we cannot fully decouple from the US because of geography (and even Taiwan trades mostly with China, because of geography), but this message seems at odds with everything happening, and it’s really hard to see how he can promise this without some pretty heavy caveats up front, and I’m not exactly seeing anything that inspires me with confidence.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-10T23:08:01.480Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia violated the ceasefire by making drone strikes on the front lines, and Ukraine launched a few drones in response. Putin claims the war will be winding down soon, but said they will be victorious, but are even further away from their aims, so we’ll see. Here is a look into the dispute between Ukraine and Israel over shipments of stolen grain, and why Israel is uncomfortably close to Russia.

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Roundup: Taking what advice on appointments?

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Prime minister Mark Carney once again said on Wednesday that Senate appointments will be made “in due course,” which doesn’t help when nearly ten percent of the Chamber’s seats are vacant or will be before summer is out, but for the first time, he indicated that he would be preserving the independent appointment committees. Sort of. (Currently only the federal members of these committees remain in place, and those for Nova Scotia, but none of the other provinces). “I will take into account the advice of the independent advisory committee that was established by my predecessor,” was what Carney said.

The problem is that’s not actually saying anything. Taking advice into account? Either these committees will be providing short-lists for appointments that Carney will choose from, or they won’t be. That was the point—they took the applications (which was always a mistake—they should have been doing the searching for worthwhile nominees to tap on the shoulder), vetted them, and honed them down to the short-lists, which Trudeau would then choose from, because he remains constitutionally responsible for those appointments. But what “advice” are they supposed to be offering if not a short-list of candidates? Will he look at their list and then decide to choose one of his friends from another hedge fund or big bank? Will he give them a list to do due diligence on? Maybe. None of this is clear, and it looks like he either doesn’t understand this responsibility that is part of his office, or he doesn’t care, and I’m not sure which is worse at this point when he’s been in office for a year now.

Meanwhile, Carney also said that he’s waiting on the joint parliamentary committee report before coming to any decision on the MAiD expansion for irremediable mental health issues, but it cannot be understated that said committee has been an absolute sham process. The two co-chairs are hostile to MAiD and have stacked the witnesses to be overwhelmingly against it, and have sidelined groups like major national psychological and psychiatric organisations who might actually argue that they can provide adequate safeguards. This is just going to result in more Charter litigation, and so many people will continue to suffer needlessly because a bunch of MPs and senators were too squeamish to actually listen to evidence that they didn’t want to hear.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-06T19:08:02.023Z

Ukraine Dispatch

In spite of Ukraine giving Russia an early start to their Victory Day ceasefire, Russia attacked several cities in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 27 people. The new Hungarian government returned to Ukraine the confiscated $82 million USD in cash and gold that was seized while transiting the country.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/2051983745297617183

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